Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: ATH then FOMC volatility, DOW +42

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened lower and ended mixed. US index futures were flat overnight, and the market opened at a new high: SPX 2509. Right after the open the market started to drift lower. At 10am existing home sales were reported lower. At 11am the SPX hit 2504, and started to rebound. By 12:30 the SPX had hit the 2509 level again, then drifted lower heading into the FOMC statement and conference. At 2pm the FED released thee following two statements:, and The market initially bounced around in a narrow range, then dropped to SPX 2497 by 2:30. After FED chair Yellen began to speak the market rallied. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2509 again, then closed at 2508.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.20%. Bonds dropped 10 ticks, Crude rallied 80 cents, Gold fell $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2479 and 2456 pivots, with resistance at the 2525 pivot. Tomorrow: jobless claims and the Philly FED at 8:30, then leading indicators at 10am.

The market opened at another ATH today, bounced around a bit, then after the FOMC statement was released the market had its largest pullback in two weeks: 12 points. Despite the pullback being the largest in two weeks it did not register quantitatively on our short term count. The short-term count from SPX 2417 remains unchanged: (1) 2455, (2) 2428, (3) 2480-2447-2509. Short term support remains at the 2479 and 2456 pivots, with resistance at the 2525 pivots. Short term momentum nearly hit oversold during the pullback then ended the day above neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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172 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. SPYtrader says:

    I am thinking that maybe there is a possibility that I will purchase 100,000 shares of the SPY. Have not decided but if I do I will hedge by shorting 100,000 shares of the SPY.
    The Phantom….. lives

    • allen kimble says:

      Don’t be sarcastic SPYtrader…….I would never believe you if you did purchase that much. Why? because when you announce that on a blog…on the internet odds are very high you are attention seeking loser. I will go with the odds and assume your trades are phantom. Your ego is sooo large that it hurts you that anybody would catch you in your quest to be somebody you are not.

      And yes… Phil does trade phantom trades……isn’t it soooo obvious. Maybe not to the foolish newbie that still believes in the tooth fairy.

      Good day….

  2. Natural gas down around 4.5% over concerns of expanding inventories:

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 97 billion cubic feet in the week ended September 15, while analysts had forecast an increase of just 91 billion.
    Natural gas for delivery in October on the New York Mercantile Exchange lost 10.9 cents, or about 3.5%, to trade at $2.985 per million British thermal units by 10:32AM ET (14:32GMT).

  3. captbara says:

    /GC looks like 5 waves down off the top. 1st wave longest

  4. Page says:

    last day before market takes dump

  5. Possible sequence
    2481-2531 minute 1 was 52 points make 5 50 points and is the 1.618 ext of wave 1
    Makes micro wave 3 114 points

    Minute 4 .50 decline of 114 is 57 so 2474

    Minute 5 well minute 1 was 100 points so

    2474 plus 100 is 2574 target to end Int 3

    that would make int 3 2574 points

    Int 4
    .38 of 574 is 218 points or 2356
    .50 of 574 is 287 points or 2287
    .618 of 574 is 355 points or 2219

    numbers for thought on a boring day. Best of luck

  6. stcoleridge says:

    Algos working hard to make new highs for the laggard RUT and DJT.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Who creates the algo’s? There is an appetite to buy in a bull market. Don’t get this conspiracy about keeping the market up.

      • stcoleridge says:

        It’s not a conspiracy, it’s fact. Computer driven trading accounts for about 70% of volume.

        • vivelaamo says:

          Yes they do but it’s not like they just appeared out of no where to pump up the market. They are still programmed by someone and working on supply and demand? Or is nobody actually buying or selling at these prices? Maybe I don’t understand how it works?

          Are you saying algo’s are manipulating the markets and nobody is actually buying at these prices?

  7. Jack Sparrow says:

    so i have come back to this board after few months- some notable changes:
    – Before Phil going after Aah on his calls, now Aah going after Phil
    -Before Phil and Fiona good friends, now I cant make out their relation
    -Before Newbie bear and Viv calling him out, now Newbie bear and Viv still calling him out
    -Before TC wave analysis was being disputed , now DH/Ph method being question
    -Before Abc posting charts everyday, now gone missing
    -Before no groups, now definitely different groups formed and going at each other
    -Before i was clueless abt the markets, now still clueless

  8. JK1987 says:

    GOLD OIL CRB (at the end)

    replying your post here
    vivelaamo says:
    September 21, 2017 at 2:17 am

    i am OK with you, not blaming you, it’s fine. you don’t and will not see any bad words from me, no matter what. i am cool.
    our goal of trading are different. you maybe care about 10-20 SPX moves, but for me, it’s just “trivial”, that’s what i meant. not directing at you. and i do not want to answer that kind of question of if we make a few points higher, or a few more days higher.
    for me, even 100 point SPX is “trivial”. but it’s big for most people.

    look, how i did not care tza did a round trip when RUT traveled from the short term low to near the high. to me, this is trivial, even though it’s 6-digit amount roundtrip. not 6-digit is trivial, it’s big, but my objective is much bigger, i am only interested in that goal. i have showed you once how high it could reach.
    what i am looking for is landslide moves. i will sit at my position till my target reached, no matter how long it takes.
    i am not a day trader, nor short term trader.
    we have different goal. that’s what i meant: big, not trivial. not personal.

    you know, i “trapped” phil with his phantom trades, hard evidences by his own account screenshots against his posts. all NOT matched.
    what bothers me is posting continuously with phantom / fake trades to promote a product, that’s violation of SEC regulation, illegal, and will be brought to justice sooner or later.

    phil was from Columbia’s forum. was a big trouble maker over there. the story goes on and on.

    it’s not my nature to criticize people or judge people. i am nothing, just a trivial servant, no qualification and can not judge anyone. in the end, we all will face the Judgement day. not by our own or anybody. it’s
    Him high above makes the judgement at the end.


    CRB and oil has the same wedge as GOLD at the “high”. a short term warning sign.
    a short term could evolve to medium term, then long term. just like FED’s “transit” of missing 2% inflation, could go lower and lower, then deflation. it’s all about debt deflation for all assets.
    yesterday GOLD broke down the trend line, and back tested, that was the final escape point.

    i do not trade gold or oil or any commodity.
    i do not short GOLD even as my opinion of GOLD would be cut in half from here in years.
    why? because i like GOLD in the long term, eventually. and there are better investments somewhere else.

    all these short term or medium term moves, to me, are “trivial”. but probably are big moves for most people. as example, movement of 10-20, 50, or 100 points SPX points are “trivial” to me. what i am looking for is landslide moves. that’s just me, we all have different goals, should respect each other’s objective.

    one day prior the GOLD “high”, i gave warning with chart pattern. but what i received was teasing and ridiculating me.

    JK1987 says:
    September 6, 2017 at 3:32 pm
    Tony thanks

    GOLD MT bearish bat harmonic pattern, meaning the entire interval will be wiped out.
    above is MT picture

    it’s all about debt deflation
    FED’s confirmed move yesterday confirms the business cycle for Long Term (even though we knew they gonna do it, but it’s a confirmation and actually doing it).
    that’s the biggest event in 10 or 20 years, according to my study of the business cycle and stock market implication.


    • vivelaamo says:

      Ok JK fair enough. If you are setting your positions now and can afford to remain ‘under water’ or in the red until this almighty crash comes then good luck to you. Traders do not work that way. I actually prefer longer term trades. While you’re looking for the big one down you’re missing the big one up which could continue for years. You will profit big one day im sure but who knows when that could may wait years! In the long term and short term I believe Bulls will always be up. History backs this up. All the best.

      • phil1247 says:


        what i dont understand is that JK evidently took Tonys course

        Tony is looking for 3000 SPX
        and the student is looking for a major crash
        perhaps the student was asleep in class or
        perhaps the student needs to take a refresher course
        what do you think ???

        • vivelaamo says:

          To be fair to JK he did post that he sees a move to 3000 as small compared to what the crash will bring. So he hasn’t said we won’t get there. All Amateurs like me can do in the mean time is make money from the next 500 points up before I lose it all and more when we crash.

          • JK1987 says:

            vive, exactly
            i did weight in spx 3000, a five hundred points move.
            reach 3000 or not, my spx goal is seventeen hundred points from 2500.
            5 to 17 ratio

            well, it’s my money. i don’t care, why should others care? and people have their own way of trading. just, please, no phantom trades, that’s illegal, violation of SEC regulation, especially promoting a product.

            i do not ask others to do the same as me.
            i also said trade the way as yours, we should respect each other’s trading objective and style.

            Tony often says, trade what you see. this student is listening and learning.

            some see 1-2, 10-20, 50, 100 points move for their trading.
            i trade what i see. only for me, not for anyone else.

    • fotis2 says:

      How do you feel about $ ?Bear rally?

      • JK1987 says:

        targeting toward 120, not a short term move.
        with $ that much high, gold, oil have a long way to go, you know, your -gold position will shine.
        pattern total match for every turn for long term, numbers are not elliott wave, just my way of labeling every turning point.

        since you are from a place experienced biggest depression, social unrest …
        i ask you how to and what to prepare for such a situation which i never experienced, and have no idea about (US 2008 is nothing compared what’s coming)
        i am seeing it’s coming, not soon in the horizon, but in years. i want to prepare it early. tia

        • fotis2 says:

          JK you need to become as self sufficient as possible,take it a day at a time the most important is the mind set a good workout in the mornings takes care of that.You slowly get used to making do with less and less minimalism becomes a way of life…

        • vivelaamo says:

          Where are you from JK? I sincerely hope it’s not the US because if you honestly believe the US will experience what Greece did then (as they say in England) you are seriously taking the piss!

    • mcgcapital says:

      There’s a big problem with everything you write.. and that’s no risk control. You might well be right about the move here if prepared to hold long enough, in fact it’s my base case. But the arguments you’re making could have been made most years since 2008. What if it went to SPX 3500 before the next bear? I’d guess that would cause you to blow up? I’ll be honest I never though 2500 would be possible in 18 months last February when OEW and various other indicators were showing a bear market. Just goes to show that analysis and calls are secondary to risk and trade management. And that’s my main concern because there’s a touch of arrogance about your posts where you don’t think you need a back up plan.

      FWIW I think you’ll make money on this call. But it’s no way to trade over the long run

      • vivelaamo says:

        Or maybe he wouldn’t blow up? It reminds me of a wealthy friend of mine that pumped thousands in to gold mine company and was massively in the red. The amount he could lose was more than a lot would see in a life time. He was rich so could afford to hold and then eventually trebled his fortune.

        We have no idea if JK Is trading or investing but whatever it is he is doing it with a massive amount of capital and is not very helpful to the majority on here. He talks about risk reward yet this risk is massive even if the reward is even bigger. That makes no sense to me.

        That’s my view anyway.

        • mcgcapital says:

          Even if you had unlimited capital it doesn’t make sense to hold something 1000 SPX points offside to try and make 1700 points. Plus the odds of it ever getting back to SPX 800 are quite low. When (if) it comes, somewhere in the region of 40-60% would be likely vs history which takes us back to 1000-1500 area assuming we’re at the highs now. 3000 then 800 would rival the 1929 crash and despite this being a bubble in my view, it’s a different type of bubble to that as it’s not generally being funded by aggressive margin

          • vivelaamo says:

            Agree and it also doesn’t help people on this blog. I always thought the main aim of comments was to give our view of the market to help each other.Seems it’s more to show each other we called it right.

  9. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Just to show you how disassociated the market is with risk here is a headline on Bloomberg….

    “How China’s debt downgrade is good for the bulls”

    There logic short term might have some pricing merit but in what market besides this one did you find a debt downgrade based on a pile of debt built on overinflated housing a bullish indicator?? You normally would associate some a ridiculous headline with zero hedge but this is Bloomberg. Let’s make up so e similar ones now…

    “North Korea fires a missed into Tokyo. This should be supportive of a stregthening economy”

    Or ….

    “Yellen admits the FED is drastically behind the curve. Much higher interest rates should help spur loan growth and a continued strengthening housing market”


    “GDP forecast cut for next year along with corporate earnings. Economy continues to strengthen”


    “Munchin resigns. Tax cuts seen As dead in the water.Tax reform irrelevant for cooperate strength”


    “Donald Trump’s annoints himself as head of the Federal Reserve. Markets see move as a sign of financial stability”

  10. gary61b says:

    ES if 2497 is exceeded then 2496, 92.5 and 84.75 are support levels.

  11. NEWBIE says:

    The Party is Over Bulls!

  12. captbara says:

    Anyone got reentry points in GC or GDX? PB done or is the goose cooked?

    • phil1247 says:

      bear below 1301.6 ext short
      if broken above … long from low must hold
      same drill as before capt
      see recent post below

    • aahmichael says:

      I don’t daytrade, but here are my recent comments about gold. The first post was a warning the day before the top when the bullishness was running rampant on this blog (except for HD, who called for a move back to 1300.) The second post was soon after the decline gathered some steam, $40 ago. My view has not changed.

      aahmichael says:
      September 6, 2017 at 12:35 pm
      I know you love correlations, so you’re probably aware of that fact that the yen still hasn’t confirmed gold’s breakout yet.

      aahmichael says:
      September 14, 2017 at 11:52 am
      Here’s my 2 cents on gold. GLD rallied 13.40 points from 12/16/16 to 2/27/17, and it rallied 13.52 points from 7/7/17 to 9/7/17. Whenever you see a three wave rally you have to ask yourself if it’s abc or 123. If it’s 123, then the 3rd wave should explode. It should not be equal to the 1st wave. Given the volatility of gold, then it’s still possible that it’s only done i of 3, but as I warned here late last week, the recent breakout was never confirmed by the yen. Also, there is no way that GDX looks like 123, plus last week’s candle was a spinning top, just like the candle ending the week of 2/10. In addition, it’s impossible for SLV to be 123, because it made a lower low on 7/10/17. Put all of that together with the fact that the 10yr treasury came down to its 100wma and 20mma last week and has bounced hard from those levels, then it looks to me like rates are going back up and gold’s rally was corrective.

    • captbara says:

      Thanks guys. I was bullish until 1320s was breached. Aah it does look corrective from the lows. Maybe a LD, but haven’t checked yet.

  13. jwmcbride says:

    3 of 3 may not be done yet 94 on es too shallow. If day trade today exceeds 97 es then 2011 could be reached. main resistance is still towards tonys 2525 target.

  14. phil1247 says:

    phil1247 says:
    September 20, 2017 at 7:42 am
    gold broke above 1315 ext short
    now if it can support above 1312 it could be a buy again
    it is at least a cover shorts proposition

    not so with silver ……..still holding short

    aahmichael says:
    September 20, 2017 at 3:52 pm
    The DH long gold trade that Phil posted this morning got decimated. That was a losing trade.


    this is why AH michael will continually lose
    he will never understand how dh works
    please read my post ……
    yes it broke above ext short
    but could not support 1312
    ergo no buy……
    …which i posted but i am not going to waste time looking up
    this post is not for AH but for those who may want to learn how to trade
    since AH has no clue about time frames
    he only believes in his incorrect counts
    and sticks to them as he loses more and more
    while the market squeezes him more every day

    • jwmcbride says:

      Phil let it go stick with what your doing if it works and makes you money.

      • phil1247 says:

        yes …agree
        but i dont want people who may want to learn being
        poisioned by angry losing money managers
        i will let it go
        thanks jwm

        time to feed the chickens !

        • H D says:

          Phil, kudos on your trading. I think what you are hearing from me and others is our desire to stay classy here. You make the blog feel like a big trading contest rather than a community of ideas. Take that info and do what you will. The other thing is DH is just wrong, a lot. We can all see that but there is a disconnect with your posts, an out, by saying the move failed. Those failed moves had you as “an investor” in gold right at the top, again, before it crashed $70. Had you pumping your chest just yesterday at 2508, again, That’s resistance, that keeps working for some. If your desire is to teach try to find a clearer way to share the data. JMHO
          GL, I’m due for a break all.

          • phil1247 says:

            thats ok if you dont get it ……………………………………………. HD

            i always thought you would have trouble with………………,, DH
            as i explained before
            because your initials were backwards ……………. 🙂

          • The difference is Asaraniti has the patience to explain it and willing to answer questions. Phil being a doctor has a superiority complex. if you don’t get it your just dumb. Cause he went to school for 10 years and that’s just how doctors are. they are smarter than everyone else.

    • I read aahmichael and phils post. Aahmichael twists the print he reads for sure.

  15. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Gold is consistant anyways.It gives a warning that works 90% of the time.With another gap down,2 scenarios could happen:A rally off today’s low or (more likely)an extension of this entire selling process into the beginning of October.Those PM COT charts were also an indicator.If gold embeds,look out below.Good luck all.

  16. phil1247 says:


    glad we took our ” chicken scratch ” profits on CL spike up yesterday

    otherwise we would be in the hole now

    chicken man :).

  17. vipulm555 says:

    Sideways consolidation in ES should be over.
    Dow has been canary. Market to propel higher.
    Waiting for tech to gain momentum.

    Trend is your friend.


  18. Good morning all

    The bottom line from my analysis on /ES trading, for the morning session…
    1. Both the 15 minute and daily charts are bullish.
    2. Yesterday afternoon /ES tested it’s large 15 minute, 50% measured move LONG at /ES 2493.50 and it was defended. The print low was /ES 2494.00 a front run by a bullish 2 ticks. That’s important to note.
    3. From that test, the /ES rallied tp 2506.75.
    4. The /ES then tested and defended a 50% micro move LONG.
    5. What has a high probability of trading this morning, is a retest of that 50% micro move long during normal trading hours so some big boys can get a “safe fill”, a test of the GAP and then the lower profit target at /ES 2509.75.
    6. IMHO, from a snapshot of this chart, a trend change and/or micro wave iv will occur from a break of the 61.8% larger measured move LONG currently at /ES 2490.26. Tony C. alluded something to that affect yesterday although not to my specific statement….and I would never put words in Tony C’s mouth.


    • floyd drummer says:


      …thanks for all of your commentary. very enlightening, ….and better explains the finer points of the system.

      on point 2: why is the front run of 2 ticks important @ ES 2494.00 important?

      • asaraniti says:

        Sorry floyd ..just came back from the boat show in Norwalk, CT. The answer to your question is traders wanted to get back in on the long position and they fear they may miss the entry if they put in a limit order at the 50% retrace so they place an order 1 or 2 ticks above the entry position. They also defended a micro long by about 2 ticks very bullish from a day traders perspective. Also, the traders have been entering longs at the 38.1% retrace which can be bullish…need to see a tick <-400 for a good entry at that level.

        • aahmichael says:

          Asa, does DH use limit and/or stop orders, or does he use market orders? Thanks.

          • asaraniti says:

            To complicated to answer is a post …not to speak for DH, other than to say he definitely uses stops,when taking a positions.

            • aahmichael says:

              The reason I ask is because no one on this blog who says they trade the DH system has ever discussed how they place orders. Drawing support lines and extension targets on a chart is one thing, but translating that into the real world of placing orders and entering and exiting trades is an entirely different thing. Since his system claims to be an automated algo trading system, then I would have assumed that the order placement is also automated, meaning entering with limit orders, and exiting with stop orders (both orders placed at the same time.) However, you have mentioned the need to sometimes ignore entry points and stop points, and “waiting to see what happens after the fact” before deciding to enter or exit a position. So I was curious how that “waiting to see what happens” is written into the automated system. I know one thing…when someone posts a chart here showing the market reversing exactly to the tick, or even a few ticks ahead, of the 50% entry level, the only way to get filled at that level is if you had a limit order already sitting there ahead of time. Thanks.

              • asaraniti says:

                No. A limit order doesn’t guarantee a fill. You need to place a limit order at least 1 tick above the 50% retrace (in this case). That’s why I stated in this mornings post a 2 tick front run is very bullish. It means that traders wanted to get into the long and were afraid of not getting filled.

                To answer your other question, IDEALLY the entry, is when:

                1. the 50% is about to be tested.
                2. the tick has to be <-400.
                3. I have to see the arrow on the tick chart.
                4. I don't use limit orders and yes I miss entries.
                5. A stop would be 2 – 4 ticks below the 61.8% of that measured move. If I don't like what I am seeing and my trade is green, I'll sell.

                That's just the way I like to trade…I don't like taking heat.

        • phil1247 says:

          hey asa

          you live in ct? i live near hartford

  19. Bud Fox says:

    While, many do not speak of it — I can see — a big bad Bear Market is heading our way.
    Best est. is in early 2018. My point being — this is the time to be closely reading the
    works of Mr Caldaro, imo……

    • micky says:

      Thanks Bud, that is why we are here, to listen to what the wise owl is saying, his long term target is 3000 so if you are listening to him as an investor you should just stay invested and not be spooked by all the bs people utter If you are an investor like you mentioned so many times, you should really be looking at his longer term count.

  20. torehund says:

    Looking at the different currencies vs the Usd. Gbp has a very low reading on daily macd, just isnt a whole lot more downside at stake. Think dollar will go big time pretty soon. Oil is a wildcard but will at some time have to succumb to dollar strength. If not there will be massive stagflation ex USA.

  21. cj32 says: CBZ

  22. torehund says:

    Take precautions everyone, lots of quakes coming.

  23. vivelaamo says:

    Morning all. I’ve done some exstensive research and have a chart that will blow your mind. Spx 5.000, RUT 20,000 dow 50,000.

    I could show you this chart and explain what I’ve found but why should I?!?

    Have a good day all 😀

    • fionamargaret says:

      Check Raymond James Charts Vive…not because of what you said, but I forgot to mention it was RJ Charts Day…..thanks x

    • mcgcapital says:

      lol you could just post the same thing everyday, taking up half the blog but never explain the rationale behind the call? That might drill it in to people…

      • vivelaamo says:

        Wait until I start posting charts with big arrows to show which way we’re going! That’s when I’ll really frighten people.

        All a bit of fun.

        On a serious note as I mentioned yesterday Fed days have recently seen short term tops a few days later. I think we could be seeing the same so waiting for a decent pb to go long while I’m short DOW with stop at new all time highs.

        FTSE looking bearish with strong pound?

        • mcgcapital says:

          Yeah probably a 1-2% dip coming as that’s been the pattern all year. No doubt the bear market will be confirmed as underway then! Think a retest of 7200 or lower on the FTSE is coming

    • cmucha68 says:

      Bla bla bla…..vive

  24. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Weaker Euro encourages European equities.
    dax hourly futures (with Fib, simplified wave count and trend channel) –

  25. Hope you are okay Tony Nikkei and Dax looking very good trades unhedged plus you earn some EUR and JPY. Looking at past USD bears they have been very brutal, USD is trying to rally, do you think we have hit a short-term low?

  26. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Ira sez if Tthe Dow breaks 22274,another 300 pts down is likely.

    • vivelaamo says:

      What’s that based on please? Dow is well and trully embedded.

      I though Ira mainly uses BB? Do his methods not suggest going long at 22080 area?

      • learnedmylesson25 says:

        Outside day.Yes,embedded,but IF 22274 is broken,the embedding will probably be shot.He’s not calling for it–just a warning.

  27. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Chris Kimble
    Thanks Raymond James

    Thanks Tony,…. and everyone..xx
    The music is a real treat….Horszowski…not a virtuoso, but a musician’s musician..he was still playing live concerts at I won’t tackle Green functions and linear boundary value problems..x

    • scottycj1 says:

      Is this one of the nights where your normal post is accompanied by just 1 piece of music ? What a joke…..since you wont remember this in the morning….dont forget this is Phil 1247…..Have another glass of wine !!!!!

      • Jack Sparrow says:

        is phil scottycj- why he is using two aliases

        • fionamargaret says:

          I have no idea why he said that Jack…and am not fretting about posting of videos and commentary…the scientists were worried I was being chastised as a guy thing, so am showing my emancipation…back to 1 video tomorrow…x.

          • Jack Sparrow says:

            yes things have changed here since i last visited this one time phil and you were quite good friends, now he using scotty alias or scotty using his alias..
            Anyway enjoy some asian music when you get a chance ( i have spent lot of time in asia for work so i under the language).

      • fionamargaret says:

        Scotty, no wine…I have to write.
        Now, when I spoke to you about seeing things in a dark light, and not seeing the good, I did not tell you that a colleague of mine jumped in front of a train…and I am always worried.
        We are playing with real money…gains and losses..and feel music provides a good equilibrium for the brain…and it is not interrupting the market…
        I just wish you well….more comments given to Sparrow…x

    • ariez5 says:

      Ok, Fiona, it seems to be “Old Guys night.” The Horzowski is delightful. But I cannot get into the Souzay and Cortot Dichterliebe. Souza was an amazing chanson singer, but he and Cortot sound like they are competing more than collaborating.

      • fionamargaret says:

        Love the Souzay and Cortot..touches my heart..but Ariez..they didn’t like it….
        I knew you would like Horszowski x

  28. Mary773 says:

    To all the Jewish traders
    From an old Catholic broad
    Happy New Year!

  29. torehund says:

    Still to early to popp the🍾 But Rut just shy of a new ATH, looking good🔝

  30. soulsurfer says:

    too much to keep track off and wordpress is a POS… so here’s the real link to the CPCE article:


  31. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #GOLD at

  32. Thanks Tony and I hope things are improving to the maximum extent possible.

    Though most of Yellen’s report had been telegraphed well in advance, I thought she was a bit more hawklish in tone than usual and calling for a rate increase in December combined with another three increases next year may have caught some off guard, particularly given deepening worries within the Fed about a prolonged period of low inflation now viewed as a “mystery”.

    The dot plot for next year, however, remains unchanged with the median expecting to end 2018 with a federal funds rate of 2.125%.

    Today was also a bit of pricing laboratory and should there be any doubt about the inverse relationship between gold and real rates, today should have put to rest any such reservations. Following and during the Fed’s release 10yr treasury rates jumped from around 2.4% to 2.9% while the price of gold fell from $1319 to $1304, convincingly illustrating the inverse relationship.

    I want to do something with gold but until I have more confidence in what rates are going to do, I’m pretty limited as to what I can do.

  33. vipulm555 says:


    ES didn’t hit 2517 today but soon.
    Dow has been closing high 9 days in a row.
    Higher prices ahead

    Bulls cheers!

  34. mcgcapital says:

    FTSE has seen a three day rally from the 7200 area to backtest support turned resistance at 7290-300. Basically selling into that area but will switch to longs if it’s able to break up. A lot depends on Sterling as the dollar might be able to pick up a bit now. I still think we see 7100 before the next buy and hold opportunity. It’s been the story since the corrective activity began in June that we tend to see patches of 3-4 up days before reversing again, so looking for a drop tomorrow.

    SPX looks similar to the other topping areas at 2440-50 and 2470-80. Ramp and camp before eventually turning lower. It’s just whether it needs a spike higher before reversing, but I’m inclined to think we won’t get one given the tendency of FOMC meetings marking highs

  35. Page says:

    Significant pullback starts as early as tomorrow 9/21, it could turn into 5-10% correction everybody is waiting for.

    Thanks Tony.

  36. phil1247 says:


    i see you beat me to the post
    no spike up to target today

    maybe tomorrow

    to infinity and beyond
    until 2491 fails

  37. learnedmylesson25 says:

    I saw a few on here looking to buy at the 2490 area—Yellen beat you to it lol.

  38. asaraniti says:

    This morning I posted…
    asaraniti (@asaraniti) says:
    September 20, 2017 at 5:44 am

    Good morning all.
    Bottom line….
    1.15 minute and daily chart remain bullish
    2. Break 2499.97 and 2494 could be tested.
    3. 61.8% retrace did break the 61.8% level on a news event and was “ignored” by this algorithm. We know that because the 50% retrace of that measured move was tested and defended 5X.
    4. Highest probability is that /ES tests the first profit target at 2508.30
    5.Today is FOMC day, the gap has a lower probability of trading, the initial move after the announcement is usually wrong and the first 15 minutes after the statement release, is usually, choppy/sloppy/reactionary.

    The /ES broke 2499.97 today and /ES tested the 50% larger 15 minute measured move. at 2493.50 ..a front run of a bullish 2 ticks.

    Updated chart…..

    • asaraniti says:

      Also mentioned the following post to those that were unfamiliar with trading David Halsey’s Algorithm program.

      asaraniti says:
      September 20, 2017 at 1:44 pm

      kvilia…The higher probability is if /ES breaks the 15 minute long at 2400.26 i.e 2340.00 or 2399.75, there will be an immediate counter trend long to a 50% SHORT. We’ll see.

      Remember currently,, some of this trading is reactionary off the statement and Yellen’s news conference.

      • asaraniti says:

        Sorry typo on the post should have said if 2500.26 is breached by a tick or two 2499.75), there will be a counter trend long to a 50% SHORT. We’ll see.

    • phil1247 says:


      notice on my chart that by leaving the fib at mondays high
      there was no front run of 2 ticks
      it was hit ………………to the tick!
      keep up the great work
      even if we are the only two who get it 🙂

      • asaraniti says:

        phil1247 I posted those comments to show others that there is an art and a science to drawing up the fibs. More importantly knowing that at times, a flash news which breaks a 61.8% level BUT subsequently the /ES trades the original 50% measured move (on multiple occasions) could/might/should be ignored.

  39. Lee X says:

    Hey Tony

    I hope that old body of yours is treating you better this week 😉

    Thanks sir

  40. scottycj1 says:

    You gave credit to Jeffrey Saut on Tuesday Update for something Jim Rodgers said. Your lack of attention to detail makes me disinclined to trust any forecasts or financial advice you espouse.
    See # 3 from this story

    • aahmichael says:

      Actually, I think you are the one who missed the details. JK was referring to what RJ discussed in his newsletter that Fiona posted last night.

    • JK1987 says:

      i read it from Jeffrey Saut has posted.

      fionamargaret says:
      September 19, 2017 at 9:09 pm

      interesting, Jim Rodgers recently is very bullish on US dollar. and saying GOLD will go down (even though Jim hold physical gold as a must hold core).
      his stock market opinion is not good for the last few years, but eventually his bearish investments will shine. he is patient for long term, it took 10 years for him to have the 4200% return (of course there are up and down many many times during the course).

      i think i probably know why his recent years bearish stock investment is off – he missed the long term cycle.
      and i think i know why he is recently bullish on US dollar to an unbelievable high, then crash.
      and and i think i know why he is saying GOLD will go down from here to very low, then up to an unbelievable never seen before high ground.
      with my own researches, i agree with Jim Rodgers above views.
      i even listed the ideal target for USD and GOLD.

      scotty, i do not expect you would ever agree with anything i said. it would be a miracle. that’s fine with me, not a matter.
      actually all the talks are not necessary, the reality will speak for itself, and it won’t be too long, sooner than anybody’s imagination. hope it won’t be too hard for you.

      • scottycj1 says:

        JK’s words
        Jeffrey Saut from September 19, 2017 Morning Track:
        “The more people ridicule and question you, the more likely you are
        probably onto a good thing no matter what it is.”

        I see no mention or credit given to Jim Rodgers.

        JK I am actually a very big BEAR….it’s just not quite time yet……

        • vivelaamo says:

          Scotty when somebody who says how it is turns bearish it’s time to listen. Those that are alway bearish for weeks and month on end while the market makes parabolic moves up are just boring and pointless.

          I’ll be interested when you think it’s time.


        • JK1987 says:

          scotty, you are “a very big BEAR….it’s just not quite time yet……
          that’s a surprise to me.

          talk about time.
          if i show you one chart, only one chart. i am confident you would switch to super bearish IMMEDIATELY.
          but why should i? what’s the benefit for me to show my efforts of secret?


          • JK1987 says:

            or don’t need a chart to switch you, just one hint of sentence will do ALL the work to scare out of all the bulls.
            for now, i am only willing to share the outcome, not the path or process, it’s my hard work and experience.

            • mcgcapital says:

              There’s nothing new in this game.. anything you could post will have already been thought of somewhere. How do you manage your risk? It seems like you’re just shorting the all time high every day and hoping for the best. Where do you get stopped out? Being a good trader isn’t about making crazy calls, it’s about consistently cashing winners and cutting losers short. So far the info you’re presenting to the blog is just a daily crash call.. I’m struggling to see how the view can be traded in practice without letting losing trades run too far offside

              • mcgcapital says:

                It’s not that I think your view is wrong.. I think you’re probably not far off but a bit early.. just that struggle to see how it fits in to a disciplined trading strategy

        • phil1247 says:

          JK would show you that chart
          but he cant because
          you are on double secret probation

    • cmucha68 says:

      4200% in 10 years ? I made 2400% in 3 weeks. This guy is nuts.

  41. soulsurfer says:

    thanks tony,

    No need to elaborate on the wave counts; Tony got you covered. Just thought I added a little extra sauce to it:


  42. either 2415 holds and we reverse our we are headed to 2531. the 1.618 extension of wave 1 52 points. Im 50-50 but it is a bull market

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