Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW +39

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 housing starts were reported lower and building permits were reported higher. The market opened at SPX 2507, 3-points above yesterday close, and then started to pullback. By 11am the SPX had only reached 2503, then turned around and hit yesterday’s ATH at SPX 2508 by noon. After that the market went into a 2-point range into the close, ending the day at SPX 2507.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.15%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude dropped 35 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2479 and 2456 pivots, with resistance at the 2525 pivot. Tomorrow: existing home sales at 10am, then the FOMC statement and press conference at 2pm and later.

The market opened slightly higher today, then spent the entire day in a 5-point trading range. No new highs, just a retest of yesterday’s ATH. No change in the count either. See yesterday’s update for that. Two days into the week and all the market has done is maintain an 8-point trading range. The last four days of last week it traded in a 10-point trading range for the entire time. Short term support is at the 2479 and 2456 pivots, with resistance at the 2525 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day just below overbought. Best to your trading FOMC day!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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160 Responses to Tuesday update

    • JK, the proposition is this:

      If X is a turning point then the sentiment at X is (likely) extreme. (i.e., A –> B ).

      “–>” means “implies”. So A —> B is True.

      From this, we habitually make inferences of the form B –> A, which is not right. (i.e., False)

      For example,

      If it rains, the ground is wet. That is : rain –> wet (this is true)

      But: wet —> rain is incorrect, because Trump may have decided to take a leak on the sidewalk (and no one would be surprised).

      Now data may suggest that *sometimes* when B happens, then A follows. But that does not mean B –> A.

      Hope my explanation is not confusing. 🙂

  1. scottycj1 says:

    Rut on the high of the day

  2. vivelaamo says:

    It’s funnny how everybody’s system works in a bull market until they call a top.

  3. phil1247 says:

    es

    perfect bounce off extension long .50 level at 2494
    bullish above ……………………………………………….2491
    target………………………………………………………….2512

    • H D says:

      oh man, I asked for the ext level *before it traded. 2 hours ago. Oh well. I give up…

      • Bud Fox says:

        Oh well….the downside is near or around 2490 ish….but ….
        there is more to this advance/top to form, yet ahead….IMO Bud

      • phil1247 says:

        HD

        you must have been sleeping from monday am till now

        the extension was there from 9 am monday

        • H D says:

          NO! I saw your chart today w the 5 other ext you deleted and the spike target you were calling for. Keeping it real bro.

          • phil1247 says:

            you think you know about hd method but you dont
            its not just slapping fibs on willy nilly

            • H D says:

              :mrgreen: Nobody is slapping anything. Just seems to me, and this is just me, that if you guys have DH’s method so buttered, that you could have answered a basic trade plan question. *before it happens. Nothing personal.

    • fotis2 says:

      Asaraniti take heed how the Master plays the game wait for the bounce and thereafter you the man of the match then you too will be….

      • phil1247 says:

        come on fotis

        after all your watching of the videos
        you still dont know about same anchor to new high ?

        2482 has been the anchor since last week
        thank God i dont have to explain this to asaraniti
        at least somebody gets it

  4. phil1247 says:

    SILVER
    came within 2 cents of extension short target
    good place to cover shorts
    still not a buy by any means
    neither is gold… ext short broke… but long from lows failed .. ergo no buying
    re investment will have to wait for lower levels

  5. H D says:

    With the weeks low taken out, are we still ignoring stops? Too infinity and beyond?
    Sorry I’m feisty today. Just keeping it real with HD.

    Sept opened 2474, rallied exactly (34) and found R. +(89) from the Aug lows in there too. Might have been a 10 Handle trade…. Pick your spots. 2506 or 2508.

    Any questions ask Lee. He has the gold medal still :mrgreen:

    • H D says:

      10 handles down. Timestamp. = Bounce
      Gave the DH guys a chance today to say you were gonna ‘fade the price action’ or give us an ext *before it traded….. crickets… until way after the fact. It’s not that hard you guys post all day.

      keeping it real with HD.

  6. Just one question.Does the balance reduction plan stay on course if Yellen gets replaced?Trump wants a lower dollar so maybe Cohn or someone else will have a different plan.Gotta go to the gym.

  7. jwmcbride says:

    Jack sparrow just saw your post the indicators are a squeeze indicator 2 fast fib moving avg and 2 slow moving avg. Keep in mind the indicators are only a small part of what a trader needs to do to be successful. there are no holy grail

  8. micro 4 is here. Im a buyer at 2490

  9. Everyone on TV was expecting dovish…nooo,.Rate hike in December and balance sheet reduction will start ramping up.Nothing dovish there.GDX does a 3% turnaround.Later.

  10. vivelaamo says:

    So why does stock market go nuts on the first 15minute of FOMC or other big announcements regardless of what it is? Is that algo’s acting alongside human reactions which causes the madness?

  11. Bud Fox says:

    Saw this chart – SP500 – thought some of you might enjoy it as I have.
    http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data

  12. Mary773 says:

    Talk it down, then scoop it up:

  13. H D says:

    Interesting wave characteristic since the Aug low has flattened out now 4 times. Little early week price action and then dead for a few days. 1 more wave?

    I was up till 2;00AM so what’s the trade today for FED. Are we fading any price action? Or are we coming in afterwards and saying there was the obvious ext?

  14. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE 2: Spx, Rut, Dax and Euro50 are already bouncing. I bought Euro50 with the best indicator signals.
    spx hourly futures –
    https://imgur.com/a/PJ5q0

    • locanbbs says:

      Looks like a lot of traders are being whipsawed by these screwy markets. Without doing much (2% gain in the last week) I moved up from 11th to 7th place in the ratings on my signals depot, where I give buy/sell signals for other traders (https://www.mql5.com/en/signals; “Four Horsemen…”).

  15. JK1987 says:

    bulls are celebrating the most bullish 3 of 3 of 3 of minor 1 of P III.
    the “parabolic move” broke out a total of up 19 points or 0.7% from Aug 8 high, a whole one month and 12 days.
    or took six month and 20 days to gain 4.5% from March 1 high.

    when the bears start, it will be SEVEN HUNDRED more SPX points in just a couple of months.
    it will be a series of crashes that you never seen in your life.

    those 20 points /1.5 months gain, or 100 points /6.5 months gain will just be changes, will be wiped out in days or a couple of weeks.

    • mcgcapital says:

      Yes it’s losing some momentum.. but odds are slim it drops that far that fast. Take a look at the 2015 top.. if want to look for much lower prices then the most likely outcome is some bouncing around between 2400 and 2500 for a while, fail to make a new high for 3+ months, see the moving averages flatten then break the range down. No point in calling a bear market until there’s a correction.. we’ve had no dips at all for 10 months and no market in history went from these conditions to falling over a cliff edge, it takes time. Probably looking at Q1 2018 at the earliest

      • vivelaamo says:

        Mcg don’t entertain him. So let’s say it took 6 months+ to gain 4.5%. Even if you sat and hold on that you would have a tidy profit and could sell right now. The whole basis of his posts are bulls are going to get wiped out eventually because bulls will hold forever.

        He just a Newbie with charts.

    • tommyboys says:

      JK, bulls aren’t “celebrating” – where do you cone up with this? Of. Ourse a bear will take the elevator down but waiting on it for months and months – years is just insanity. No bear in sight get over it. 2009 was 8 years ago and a once in a generation – or two – event.

  16. phil1247 says:

    tore

    time to take some profits on TBT
    bonds are within ticks of targets

  17. vivelaamo says:

    When most on this blog is calling for the market to go up it goes up. When most are calling for it to go down it goes up!!

    Smartz 😂

    Good evening all. Trade FOMC safety.

  18. cj32 says:

    cr. CBZ

  19. Lee X says:

    I’m the best trader
    The End

  20. Mary773 says:

    “The Transports also turned in a positive performance, gaining 1.7% on the week and confirming an uptrend. With the recent downtrend ending much above the 8744 level, this suggests the possibility of an extending Major wave 5. This type of event would extend the general bull market in time. New highs, above 9764, would suggest an extension is underway.”

    Getting close.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TRAN&p=D&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p31459279055&listNum=36&a=545681726

  21. Stockcharts analyst Tom Bowley reminded everyone that Nasdaq is now in its worst period of the calendar year (down 41% cumulatively over the years)…until Sept 30th.Worst seasonality by far.

  22. gary61b says:

    ES 2502 for support then up for wave e to finish at or near 2509.5

  23. aahmichael says:

    At the risk of looking like a fool on a FED day, and in honor of Newbie, I offer the following, right here right now:

  24. fionamargaret says:

    If you want stocks that are working…
    UGLD, UGAZ, UWT, JNUG, NUGT, ERX…all given yesterday, and to the FT…if you want a stock FCX…x

    • fionamargaret says:

      GLD is going to 150…..
      and oil to 55, then in the sixties…..

      gold will be at 3500 under certain conditions…I will write about that next week.

      • captbara says:

        Picture not clear on gold yet. In any case oil is the star of the show for now. Only one of the commods can be on top so it will be interesting to see which one it’ll be a few months out.

    • fionamargaret says:

      …XEG.TO and XGD.TO if you want exposure to the $CAD….

  25. asaraniti says:

    The stronger DOW index just broke the equivalent /ES 61.8% retrace (2499.97).

    • fotis2 says:

      And the YM and so if one was trading the long he is out and going for the opposing short and he’s out 2 loosing day trades so far look been following DH for a while 50/50 top end loss to win ratio once again no system is perfect and to be profitable back to basics discipline/money management correct R/R etc.etc

      • phil1247 says:

        art and science buddy
        you dont take every trade .. do you ?
        you wait for the …………………………

        http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/

        • phil1247 says:

          you did take the CL long for the spike up ……………..yes?

          • fotis2 says:

            You know me Idon’t do chicken scratch that spike up been pending since a month ago when CL trade the opposing long after breaking the short from highs you remember that one the one you couldn’t understand.

      • asaraniti says:

        ? Have no idea what you are talking about.

        What if you bought YM last week and decided to book profits before the FOMC announcement today at 2:00 PM? You would have done very nice! The “rule” is on FOMC days, if you have “tight’ stops, think about booking profits before the announcement or you risk losing some or all of your unrealized gains..

        • phil1247 says:

          asa

          you will turn blue in the face trying to explain how this works
          just be happy to book profits every day….
          let them try to figure out how you do it

          • asaraniti says:

            yea, knew that all along. Just thought if I explained the system, others would more interested in how it works and incorporate it, as another tool to get an edge on trading rather than criticize it for a lack of understanding on how the algorithm works.

            • phil1247 says:

              asa

              no …………
              they would rather stick to their preconceived notions
              of what the market should be doing …

              while the market tells them every day that they are wrong……..
              that is why they will continue to lose

        • fotis2 says:

          So you stayed long after the ext.long broke last week because the algo had an off day?

    • vivelaamo says:

      Thanks. Enjoy your posts.

  26. scottycj1 says:

    Trannies leading the way up

  27. phil1247 says:

    SPIKE target in ” sights”

    got my steve miller band song ready to go !

  28. vipulm555 says:

    SmartZ

    Market has consolidated enough for past few days

    2517 today

    Bulls forever , love FED and your friend

  29. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  30. phil1247 says:

    gold broke above 1315 ext short
    now if it can support above 1312 it could be a buy again
    it is at least a cover shorts proposition

    not so with silver ……..still holding short

    • fotis2 says:

      You’re a 5 minute special when did you turn into a swing trader bud?

      • phil1247 says:

        mr crude………….

        CLZ7 spike up to 51.67 is a=c
        good place to take profits on longs 😉
        hey its a quick 90 cents from here ……….hows that for short term?

  31. gary61b says:

    ES 60 min. has hit its head on 2506 four times and has formed an ascending triangle, more northern movement to come. 🙂

    • gary61b says:

      Just as a note if the amplitude of the right angle triangle of 8.25 at 100% and was used as a target above the 2506 level that places this triangle breakout projection at 2514.25.. 2506 was hit three times not 4….

  32. Micro 3 should be ending soon with micro 4 to be on deck. Micro 4 should be short like 25-30 points since micro 2 was deep then micro 5. Minute 4 should be 50-60 points then minute 5. This Int 3 could hit 2600 an 800 point move from 1800. Then a 200 -400 point pull back for Int 4. Remember if there is a bull path or bear path error on the bull path until proven otherwise.

    Old luck all

  33. jwmcbride says:

    2507 resistance target meet on swing trade close enough as phil says take money and run
    2507 resistance pivot support for low risk swing trade 2597 2586 est.

  34. Good morning all.
    Bottom line….
    1.15 minute and daily chart remain bullish
    2. Break 2499.97 and 2494 could be tested.
    3. 61.8% retrace did break the 61.8% level on a news event and was “ignored” by this algorithm. We know that because the 50% retrace of that measured move was tested and defended 5X.
    4. Highest probability is that /ES tests the first profit target at 2508.30
    5.Today is FOMC day, the gap has a lower probability of trading, the initial move after the announcement is usually wrong and the first 15 minutes after the statement release, is usually, choppy/sloppy/reactionary.

    Chart….

  35. Bud Fox says:

    My Market View…. It’s Lonely Near the Top…end

    • Bud Fox says:

      update 1:56pm 9/20….a decline, in W4 down style is what I am
      expecting to soon, unfold. Following that decline and low — should
      move up to new price highs. I have an SDS short, bought much to early.
      That said, the up coming low, is where I plan to go long SSO….thks TC…

  36. I believe the coming week will present the market with an important short-term test. If the 2507/10SPX region holds as resistance, and we turn down to break 2480SPX, I believe we will drop to retest the 2400SPX region again. And, this is my preference at this point in time. However, if we are unable to turn down at 2507/10SPX, or if we are unable to strongly break below 2480SPX, then the market is sending us a message that it wants to head to at least the 2545SPX region, and potentially even a bit higher before wave (3) completes.
    —Avi Gilburt-Gartman
    That about covers all the bases.

  37. vivelaamo says:

    Question for those that understand the VIX. Is there anything to read in to the VIX not making new lows while indices continue to make new highs?

    I’m assuming not but I don’t really understand the VIX so would like to hear from those that do. Thanks

  38. vivelaamo says:

    Looks like recent Fed rate days have been bullish on the day but then seen a short term top within the next few days or so. setup looks like we could see a repeat to squeeze some shorts before we pb.

  39. Ira late night summary:He got a minor sell signal on the dollarAbove 91.93 would cancel that .He keeps pointing out gold has a gap at 1340 that”will be filled.”First it must get above 1318–the 18d–first resistance on a rebound,”that might be caused by a Fed surprIse at the press conference.”He thinks Fed meetings with pressers are potentIally more volatile.Equities all embedded bullishly.
    I don’t get bullish on gold/GDX until it gets above its 10 and 20d.Good luck all.

    • Judging by the April 24th gap on GDX,it took two weeks to make a bottom and around 3 to 4 weeks to fill the gap.Similar time for this gap fill of 25.40 would mean, ,hold your nose and buy around Oct 4th.Let’s see how this plan works out.

  40. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Breakout in Asia? – The major US markets are trying to break out at the opening of Asien markets today. As today is the last market cycle low before the beginning of October, when new strong market lows are scheduled, it’s DO OR DIE in the next day or two for NEW MARKET HIGHS.
    spx hourly futures –
    https://imgur.com/a/4YSBX

  41. fionamargaret says:

    https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=30b904a1-0daf-4f4f-b30c-5b3132e3c89d&mime=pdf&co=RaymondJames&id=Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com&source=mail
    Thanks Raymond James

    Thanks Tony…and everyone.xx
    I was going to talk about solving differential equations by separation of variables, but liked the music better….and hope you do too x

  42. It is great to have you back. When you were gone from the site, many of us felt the presence of a huge vacuum. You seem to be recovering well from whatever. i myself had a surgery for a deviated septum today, so I am in recovery mode as well.

  43. Jack Sparrow says:

    jwmcbride ,,,i just saw your charts from yesterday..nice charts – what are the r two indicators..i assume one is elliot oscillator, what is the other one…thanks

  44. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #FTSE at http://www.tradinchannels.uk

  45. Thanks so much for all you do, Tony!

    I want people to know that there is no need to be alarmed about Nibiru.

    Nibiru is an anagram of I. Rubin (Itzhak Rubin) a Japanese-Israeli sumo wrestler who is about seven times the size of the average sumo wrestler. Ever since he took up giant trampoline exercises to lose weight, jumping between seventeen trampolines strategically placed near the Israeli border, there have been all kinds of stories about spaceships and weapons and planets and what-not. When other people see a moving planet up above them, people-in-the-know are fully aware that it’s just Itzhak doing his exercises.

    So if you see this out of your window Sitchin in your kitchen, do not be alarmed. It’s only Itzhak. 🙂

  46. phil1247 says:

    SPX

    spike up to 2515 is preferred scenario……
    then 2531 depending on what happens at 2515 target
    could it be a ” take the money and run ” spike
    like august 8 at the same trend line ?……………..
    stay tuned

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