Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW +39

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 housing starts were reported lower and building permits were reported higher. The market opened at SPX 2507, 3-points above yesterday close, and then started to pullback. By 11am the SPX had only reached 2503, then turned around and hit yesterday’s ATH at SPX 2508 by noon. After that the market went into a 2-point range into the close, ending the day at SPX 2507.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.15%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude dropped 35 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2479 and 2456 pivots, with resistance at the 2525 pivot. Tomorrow: existing home sales at 10am, then the FOMC statement and press conference at 2pm and later.

The market opened slightly higher today, then spent the entire day in a 5-point trading range. No new highs, just a retest of yesterday’s ATH. No change in the count either. See yesterday’s update for that. Two days into the week and all the market has done is maintain an 8-point trading range. The last four days of last week it traded in a 10-point trading range for the entire time. Short term support is at the 2479 and 2456 pivots, with resistance at the 2525 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day just below overbought. Best to your trading FOMC day!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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160 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. phil1247 says:


    sorry about all the posts but can you give us a special dispensation
    on FOMC days ? 🙂

  2. vivelaamo says:

    DH works more often than it doesn’t if traded with discipline. But I can’t believe any system can never take a loss. That’s not realistic. With all due respect Phil.

    • tommyboys says:

      Designated Hitter?

    • aahmichael says:

      The DH long gold trade that Phil posted this morning got decimated. That was a losing trade. Also, the SPX buy level at 2500 that he posted this morning also was a losing trade, and the next buy level from his SPX chart this morning (2494.53) never got hit. Now, though, after continually telling us that these levels change everyday, he’s now saying that the chart he posted 2 days ago is the one that should have been followed today.

      • vivelaamo says:

        I don’t know how Phil uses DH method so I can’t speak for him. But I did join for a month and learn how the method worrks.. You do get stopped out. No method can never get you stopped out. However it is very useful for staying on the right side of the trend and having targets both long term and short term. I don’t personally believe it’s anything to do with algo’s. I think it’s more just a method that tracks the way markets move and gives you a slight edge. Like many other indicators and patterns if used with discipline. Which is what all systems should do right?

        If I could spend more time trading as opposed to a day job. I would use this method along with others.

  3. johnnymagicmoney says:

    when short term rates are going up, and long term rates are going down what does that say?

    bond market says its afraid of a recession

    that’s what

  4. scottycj1 says:

    Most indexes turning green…..this could be very dangerous for Da Bears

  5. JK1987 says:

    17 posts for Tuesday update
    and posting trades (phantom)

    a repeating of:

    fionamargaret says:
    September 14, 2017 at 3:36 pm
    Phil, you took up half of Tony’s blog yesterday teaching another’s method.

    • vivelaamo says:

      To be fair I’d rather read about ‘phantom trades’ that than your crash prediction mumbo jumbo while market continues to go.

      You look silly.

      • That makes little sense. The blog is focused on long, medium and short term views of the market, and when people are interested, also some stocks or sectors. It seems more appropriate, I think, for minute by minute trading lectures to occur on a trading blog. I am not saying these things are not valuable. It’s just that the big picture is lost when someone says I bought there, my ears are extended, I sold here. Why?

        JK takes a longer term view and he gives his reasoning. This is valuable and seems, at least to me, to be more aligned with the focus on what the indexes will do, and and less on
        “Look Ma! Minute-by-minute trading with no hands!”.

        It’s not the end of the world — what people do. But since you stated your “show me how to trade” preference, I am stating my preference. In that sense, what JK offers are his insights, and that is valuable.


        • JK1987 says:

          i am ok, won’t be affected by emotional talks, bypassed.
          i am calm with my research and investments.
          i offered my analysis, right or wrong, my investment results will speak to me, not anything else.
          i share, for people willing to listen, they listen. for people don’t want to listen, they can bypass and stay on their own path, i don’t mind.

          believe or not, even though tza is down for the day, my investments ( a few newly added recently) is green for the day. 🙂

          Jeffrey Saut from September 19, 2017 Morning Track:
          “The more people ridicule and question you, the more likely you are
          probably onto a good thing no matter what it is.”

          • I agree. Please keep posting your thoughts. I like reasoned arguments and views on the indexes. All of the short-term noise is lost when the big moves take place. Those are thee crucial times.

            • JK1987 says:

              largest hedge fund Ray Dalio had an interview on cnbc yesterday.
              nobel professor Robert Shiller had an interview today.
              Jeffrey Saut / RJ talked about Jim Rogers’s Quantum fund had an extraordinary 4,200% in the first 10 years.

              i have studied their latest opinions compared to my own researches.
              it’s very interesting some views come to a common ground, some are different.

              • JK1987 says:

                and i am analyzing chief Dalio and professor Shiller’s latest views.
                both of them expresed some greatest fears, but they took it the other way.
                i already potentially saw what they have missed, try to understand why they took the other path.
                reviewing more before making conclusions.

        • vivelaamo says:

          I agree but when I tried to question JK and learn from him I got told not to try and trap him with trivia and how I wouldn’t understand.

          That’s when it seemed he has become very stubborn in his view and is unwilling to discuss possible alternatives to his scenario.

          • JK1987 says:

            i did not like the way you “question” me.
            did not “feel” good about how the question was asked.
            you do not know how much i went through and come up with my view.
            you do not know how much confidence i have on my system, even though saying confidence is not a good thing.
            i am only willing to share the coming outcome, not the secrets of the process.

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