Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: ATH open then consolidation, DOW +61

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened at SPX 2493 an ATH. The market had closed at SPX 2488 yesterday. In the opening moments the SPX rose to 2496 then began to pullback. By 11am the SPX had reached 2490. It then rallied to SPX 2497 in the closing minutes only to close at 2496.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.30%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude rose 20 cents, Gold added $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2479 and 2456 pivots with resistance at the 2525 pivot. Tomorrow: the PPI at 8:30, then the Budget deficit at 2pm.

The market opened at an ATH, then made a new ATH before spending the rest of the day consolidating. As we have been noting, during the inflection point period, either a breakout or breakdown would eliminate one of the two short term counts. Today the SPX daily chart was updated to reflect the count on the SPX hourly chart. Currently we have the SPX in Minute iii of Minor 5. With Micro waves (orange) 1 and 2 completed and Micro 3 underway. Micro 3 appears to be subdividing as follows: (1) 2455, (2) 2428, (3) 2480-2447-2497 so far. Lots of counts floating around but this looks the most probable. Short term support is at the 2479 and 2456 pivots, with resistance at the 2525 pivots. Short term momentum remains overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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513 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. Quick Ira synopsis:Gold is in trouble,GDX is in trouble.SPX is in trouble,Russell is in trouble,bonds are in trouble.He doesn’t think SPX will embed–just his opinion.He said that about GDX recently as well.Was not correct.
    “Gold will settle temporarily at the 18 day,to decide whether to go through it or bounce.There’s a gap at 1340 that needs filling.”
    Me:Nothing to add about GDX.Maybe a fake rally ro the 10d?Watch out if it does,the second drop is the killer.If it plows through to 25 again–all clear most likely.THEN you’d see a great rally.Good night all.

  2. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE 3: Double (triple) top or new “rocket ramp”? –
    ndx hourly futures –

  3. stormchaser80llc says:

    To concentrate my efforts on my development, posting to this blog will only be done twice weekly, each Wednesday and for the Weekend. But you can sign up any day to see FREE and FULL content by visiting http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    New All Time High for SPX today.

    After 85 trading days, the SPX 20 dma has slipped below its 50 dma for the 7th day in a row.

    My swing trading signals have been BULLISH since 8/25 and 8/29 respectively. My proprietary Technicals Model was higher for the 11th day in a row, with a positive divergence at 9/1’s peak vs. SPX, foretelling of this bullish run, and is at its highest recent level further support future SPX upside. It was an odd previous bottom as the Model did not positively diverge as it usually does in advance. My statistically driven Volatility Model bottomed on Friday ahead of this weeks big move higher.

    8/29’s SPX Hindenburg Omen ended up being a bottom reversal variety. Many HO in June and July leading up to the All Time High, then 5 more during the decline in mid August. None since then.

    SPX daily is at its top Bollinger Band and above all major moving averages. At the hourly scale, the 2479 pivot was taken out. A short pullback may occur here with negative divergences seen at today’s top, with the uptrend likely to resume thereafter given new uptrend highs for RSI Tuesday.

    VIX made an hourly MACD BUY signal at the end of today. However I am not confident in this signal with a lack of strong or widespread positive divergences at Tuesday’s lows. Drilling down to the 15-min chart, moderate positive divergences on all indicators occurred at the lows for the day. These divergences may signal a brief period of higher VIX before the downward trend continues.

    Market Internals, participation and breadth indicators were mixed today. Many of these are in positive territory, yet are well off peaks from earlier in the year. SPX A-D line in an exception, making a new All Time High on 9/12, obviously above its 20 dma which is now ascending. SPX McClellan made its 10th positive reading in a row.

    The Yield Curve is flattening which continues to support the notion of a weak economy. This as TLT:TIP shows deflation fears have been climbing since Spring.

    Oil finally surpassed Friday’s peak prices, but likely wont succeed a challenge of both its 200 dma and upper Bollinger Band for any significant amount of time. Oil performed terribly during the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico which shuttered rigs (If Harvey couldn’t boost prices an east coast Irma shouldn’t help much either), and all Spring/Summer during typical peak price season, last peaking at the beginning of this year. In an interesting development, HYG:IEF made a lower low last Friday, which only served to strengthen significant positive divergences in doing so. This suggests that Risk-On should return soon, and this bullish run has come to fruition!

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com) However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

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    • JK1987 says:

      Stephen, i respectfully disagree with the A.G. Bisset Dollar report.
      after read the report, i point out a few things:
      1. the Bisset report probably is an old report, over 1.5 years ago.
      2. “The euro began to rise in 2016 …” (the report thought euro low was December 2015)
      But euro made another lower low in December 2016, that’s a whole year missing.
      so the Bisset statement is wrong.
      3. from above, and from the chart, we can see the Bisset report’s statement of “THE DOLLAR’S 15-YEAR CYCLE” is wrong. it’s not 15 year cycle.

      i do agree with the statement of “The dollar has massive implications for the value of all asset classes and the wealth and global purchasing power of investor”.

      imho, from my research, the dollar cycle has a lot of time to go up, i would say the dollar could rise to around 120.
      if that’s true, gold, oil, … will be a lot lower in years.

  4. mjtplayer says:

    Ramp-up into OPEX still underway, though the rally is running out of gas. Ramps like this usually top-out Thursday or Friday during an OPEX week.

  5. JK1987 says:

    Tony, hope everything is fine with you and family.
    all the best

    God bless

  6. soulsurfer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    Few nuggets from the put/call ratio. Odds favor short term weakness, then renewed strength:



  7. Hey JK do your insides feel relieved after that huge dump on Apple. Maybe dem apples aren’t so bad after all.

    Got to admit though you really have the attention of many on here, just that my index finger gets tired scrolling my mouse wheel to get past all the c..p you spurt.

  8. vivelaamo says:

    Last one I promise Look at where the next Extension daily Long on the RUT sits!! You know the gap is going to be filled. (DH experts please tell me if my anchor is wrong).

    New Sweet spot!

  9. vivelaamo says:

    Before :


    Horribly wrong but not too much damage done :

    Good night all!

  10. pooch77 says:

    15% corporate tax rate should get us to SnP 3000

  11. lcd00 says:

    I recommend taking a look at the 1 hour VIX BB, and 4 hour charts on RUT, NAZ, SPX, SOX, DOW.
    Meanwhile, VIX instruments are getting face pulped.

  12. pooch77 says:

    We’re is Darkness,he was calling for rut 1350 mid Sept??

  13. If this is 5 waves up. IF. It cant go above 2498. So Short from 2487 until over 2498

  14. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE 2: Looks like the market cycle bottom is over already and the bounce begins now! (Not unusal to begin a few hours to a half-day early.)

    • tommyboys says:

      Thought you said bottom was from 14-20th…Today only 13th.

    • mcgcapital says:

      How can it be a bottom when we’ve been going up? It’s either a top and we go down, or it’s pausing and we continue up..

    • locanbbs says:

      These “bottoms” are internal, “eternal”, like all factors of nature (internal nature). That doesn’t mean that other factors won’t change their expression/appearance. Like in summer the sun is always stronger because of its position in the sky. That doesn’t mean that clouds won’t make it cold instead of hot. You “doubting Thomases” are just too simple-minded. Reality is a lot more complex than you would like to believe! Market cycles are just ONE factor; still it doesn’t mean we have to ignore them.

  15. SPX with a slow stochastic over 90 will embed tomorrow.Unless there’s a selloff of some larger degree (20 pts +),this all seems bullish.NK the only thing that could puncture this… it seems.See you all at around 11pm.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Thanks Learned…

    • JK1987 says:

      spx has 6 points or 0.25% break out of 0808 high, took more than a month! lol

      warning: very bearish stuff, bulls don’t open

      phil: 13 posts
      limit – bears: 3; bulls: unlimited

      • vivelaamo says:

        It’s normally the other way round on this site. Bears are very welcome here.

        Jk I like your analysis and you said yourself to never get emotional.

      • phil1247 says:


        3 posts since this am
        all the rest were responses to questions
        they do not count …. per Tony

      • vivelaamo says:

        Forgot to say you are able to admit you are wrong you know.You wont be the first to get blind sided by the bull.

      • mcgcapital says:

        JK do you actually believe this? I’m a bear on both the macro and the ability of congress to pass something meaningful on tax, but apart from an escalation in Korea how do we go down like that? We can’t even manage 3%, or 5% never mind 30%. Trends weaken before they reverse. Overall, the uptrend has weakened since March which is why we only edge higher then pullback, then edge higher again etc. But nevertheless it’s still a long term uptrend. I think in a years time it will be over, but the signs that it’s nearing a conclusion are an increase in volatility, bigger drawdowns and wider trading ranges. We don’t go from this type of action to collapse overnight unfortunately. Wish it would tank as it’s more exciting than this constant slow grinding but it’s not going to!

        • JK1987 says:

          mcg, the red arrow is for the direction, a concept, not for collapse overnight.
          put it this way, once had discussion with aahmichael of his final target of % down, it’s very big. and i am even much more bearish than that.

          i am committed. you don’t know what i have seen, i have researched extensively and deeply on all technical and …, i never say it publicly, why should/would i?

          • vivelaamo says:

            Ok do you have timescales? If all you are going to say is we are going to crash hard one day what makes you any different to Newbie?

            • JK1987 says:

              vive, of course i have a time frame. it’s not 1 day, 1 month, 6 month, or 1 year, i won’t say it though, it’s my research.
              i am not looking for a crash overnight to be done. if there is a crash, just the starting.
              i showed you how high tza i am expecting. so a few bucks of tza up/down is just noise to me even though the $ amount is not small to most people. and i told you rut 840 only is wave 1 down.
              i am not a short term or day trader, my style won’t fit your need of needing performance daily. i don’t trade daily, i just watch and study for opportunity. AAPL put is the latest opportunity i set up.

              i see gold should down 50% from here in a few years, and i don’t even want to short gold.
              $usd should be a lot higher than 2017 high for years, then collapse from there, then we have the rise of gold/miners to unbelievable sky, when nobody want them, that’s the time i want to use my profits to buy gold in a large amount.
              just another of my research, different from most people’s view.

              on the short term basis, NEWBIE is better than me. he booked $5K profits on TVIX, and i showed you how much my daily account went down, 3X more than NEWBIE’s.
              but in the long run, i will be much better.

              i know, you and most people are trained for 9 years, stocks are always go up.
              trade your way and what you see.

              i am confident on what i have seen, otherwise i won’t commit such a large sum in my investments.


        • mgc has it right. Well-expressed!

          • travis01 says:

            You do you. Right or wrong these are your trades and your $$. In the past six plus weeks the SNP traded between 2430-2490 back and forth, and I was able to use pivots and short term trades to net $46k on both sides of the vix trade. It doesn’t happen often but entirely possible to make money in a relatively flat(ish) market is volatility moves. That’s all I use OEW for at the moment.

  16. CampFreddie says:

    *** KVILIA ***
    If you want to Short Bitcoin ? Try this spread betting Bookie.(very safe, UK ftse 100 plc)

  17. kvilia says:

    Can anyone confirm there are SPX 5 waves up completed from Aug 21?

  18. fionamargaret says:

    Now we still have UWT, UGAZ from yesterday, plus our friend ERX from its low.
    I added XOM..
    All up.

    • fionamargaret says:

      …if you scroll down to Kimble’s chart you will see XOM…I think he needs some loving…
      Energy is the poorest performing sector, so if we are going higher, your movers are there…

  19. Anyone have an updated Bitcoin EW chart, i remember seeing one recently, cant find it…

  20. vivelaamo says:

    TRAN suggesting may reverse again soon.

  21. Avi Gartman is super bullish on gold:
    “This now brings me to the support levels to watch in the coming week. As long as the GDX holds the 24 region, silver holds the 17.40 region, and GLD holds the 126 region, we will continue to maintain a strong expectation that we still have higher to go over the coming weeks. So, I would not worry so much about the micro count. Rather, I would simply give the market room to run.”
    I have my doubts on all those holding.Good luck all.

  22. asaraniti says:

    Bottom Line

    As per David Halsey’s morning update, the /ES futures are in a bullish trend both on the 15 minute and daily charts. As long as /ES stays above 2485.75 the profit target of this measured move is /es 2499.

  23. Mary773 says:

    Thank you, Tony.

    After again reviewing Tony’s bullish count, I remain confident that it is correct. I would therefore appreciate it if someone can post a technically-based counterargument. The bearish scenarios that I have seen (and I think I have read almost all of them that have appeared publicly) are either of “the market is too high” wishful thinking variety or just variations of the same failed analytical gobbledygook that has been wrong during the bull market. Does a compelling bear case exist? If so, it would be great to see it posted here because after much searching I just cannot find it.

    • gary61b says:

      If 2480 is breached that would be your bearish sign and a count change.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      Well, you’ve made a critical mistake right there in your thinking. You have already reached a conclusion, which is not going to help you in trading. If you’re simply an investor and looking for guidance, then so be it, but moving averages would suffice in that case. In my experience, the best traders remain open to all possibilities because there is no one course of action.

    • JK1987 says:

      Mary, fyi
      bearish count:
      Mary773 says:
      August 17, 2017 at 7:46 pm
      PUG is publishing a count that suggests the end is nigh:

      another bearish count:

      another bearish count: JK’s new AAPL put, initial target $120 to fill the gap
      most bearish count in 30 years: my charts, not available publicly, only face to face presentation for qualified entity 🙂

      bullish count:
      Daneric Elliott Wave Update 12 September 2017

      • CampFreddie says:

        Daneric – 😀 😀

      • Only way this bull Market ends here is war with North Korea. Otherwise Higher we go. And Nothing will matter until fed raises rates. Because until then there is hope of 3 percent GDP Hope of tax reform. Hope and The juices from the fed to Keep everyone in the game,although those things never happen. Hope continues to remain with interest rates so low. While there is hope and no were else to put your money. Nothing else matters. I mean nothing. President could be impeacehed, Govt could shut down. We have 2 states under water 3 states with major fires. Just doesn’t matter.
        Good luck all. Jack it up.

      • Mary773 says:

        Tony’s count has superior proportionality and seems more historically objective than Daneric’s count. PUG could be right, but his count seems truncated on the big picture. I do appreciate your examples. What i do not yet see are relevant technical similarities to the major highs of the last 100 years. They might exist, but I do not see them and so far no one has published them. Thanks to you and the others for the responses.

        • JK1987 says:

          Mary, it does exist. more than once in US & overseas. and i had extensive and deep research on them for both technical and broad detailed pictures. i won’t publish them though, no need.

  24. vipulm555 says:


    Another PB time, market provides great gift.


  25. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: After the last market cycle bottom I announced already weeks ago for Sept. 5-6 (occurred at 1 p.m. EST on the 5th) the next cluster of market cycle bottoms is scheduled for the 14-20th (tomorrow till Wednesday of next week). During this period a good bounce is certain. How far the market will fall till then is uncertain! Interesting times!

  26. Bud Fox says:

    It appears, NYSE New Price Highs, peaked. Early in the 1st qtr. If correct. A Bear is in the
    equity future….in my opinion…Bud

    • Bud Fox says:

      The Great Peaking Process, continues to stretch
      enthusiasm for equities, to multi-year extremes, as
      U.S. stocks complete their final waves higher….9/13

  27. I would be totally surprised if we don’t get a 20-30 point pull back from here. will see from there

    • mjtplayer says:

      OPEX week, the powers that be have been ramping equities and crushing the VIX. This usually continues into Thursday or early Friday before starting to reverse. We’ll see…

  28. phil1247 says:


    2495 target hit
    went thru by .5
    so new extension long in force

    bullish above extension long support at ……………………….2487
    can continue upwards to 3000 or more …………..
    until the extension long fails

    • aahmichael says:

      I’m trying to understand your system. Yesterday, you said that 2490 had to hold, but that was broken around 3PM yesterday, as well as this morning. Now that support level isn’t shown on your chart anymore. What happened to it, and why doesn’t it matter anymore? Thanks.

      • phil1247 says:

        phil1247 says:
        September 12, 2017 at 10:18 am

        as you can see we are very close to the ext long and traditional long targets
        of 2495 and 2496
        should the ext long support at 2486 fail …..
        you surely must bail

        • aahmichael says:

          That post was early in the day. However, late in the day you posted the following where you said the support that had to hold was 2490:

          phil1247 says:
          September 12, 2017 at 1:13 pm
          ding !
          es 2494 is within 4 ticks of target
          calling it hit !
          anyone holding on for 2495 would be advised to bail if 2490 gives way

          • aahmichael… I believe Phil1247 “loosely” follows David Halsey’s system. Although Phil1247 uses different draws/anchors at times (note: not putting words in Phil1247 mouth). It all depends on where you draw your anchors. That’s the art and science of using computer algorithms. Here is DH morning update…note the anchors and line in the sand 61.8% retracements….hope this helps…

            • aahmichael says:

              Thanks. So if I understand correctly, the DH system is normally based on entering a trade on a HWB retracement with a stop at the .618 retracement, but Phil alters that by placing his stop at the HWB level once an extension target has been hit.

              • phil1247 says:

                not exactly
                but i will have to discuss it after hours

              • asaraniti says:

                Not going to speak for phil1247. DH method is we are in a daily or 15 minute bullish trend, IDEALLY place an order to buy when the 50% level is tested (1 or 2 ticks above the 50%), the tick -400 and the arrow forms on the tick to move higher. The stop would be 1 or 2 ticks below the 61.8% retrace. Lately, the 38% has been a common level to enter a long.

                Hope this helps.

        • phil1247 says:

          so once we made a new high at 2494
          i dont want to see the .618 (2490) breached from perfect bounce off
          ext long .5 level (2487.75) to high

          that is my way of avoiding too much drawdown
          if buyers are strong the will not allow even the .50 level to be breached
          before we go hit target
          also da boyze like to pull the rug just before target is hit
          so i am very anxious to take profits within 4 ticks of target
          but orthodox method requires 2486 to fail
          i use MDH method. … modified david halsey method

  29. In the interests of clarity, what do you classify as a dump? Cause it depends on why you’ve eaten the night before. Yes?

  30. JK1987 says:

    read my leaps, mark my words, lol 🙂 🙂 🙂
    AAPL big dump Sep 13, 2017
    and take the market down with it.

  31. Just gave a listen to Ira.All the PM areas that I follow have lost the embedded.Gold for two days now,so it should drop to 1317ish.GDX levitated today but unless the dollar starts a freefall again,be prepared for sub 24 prices.Looks like all the equity indexes want to try to bullishly embed this week.SPX an early ride on the upper Bollinger band.See how long that goes.Nothing bearish regarding equities.Good luck everyone.

    • JK1987 says:

      fiona, thank you for sharing the paper and music.

      JS sounds like not so sure anymore? and saying “look quite foolish”
      if you see him, please let him know, not at all. JS will be the smartest FM in a couple of weeks.

      da boyz knocked down my tza while i were out today, must be knowing my boy is tza. lol
      good news is 🙂 🙂 🙂 i will be back tomorrow and the rest of the week and following week. let’s see what happen.

      all major market made new closing ATH, except rut.
      wasn’t it the same way Oct 2007 top? no new high for rut.
      i am even more confirmed going forward will be a bear market i have never seen in many years.

      from the shape and form of the following chart, i can see 7 waves (let’s not matter the degree of (int or micro or major or nano), or overlapping).
      from what i have learned, 7 waves is the most bearish wave, the 7th wave is called “wave-irrational exuberance”, it’s the end.

      regarding oil, gold, silver, miners, and $usd
      besides my original analysis, i had a fresh look from different angles.
      (i still have not touch any of them, no conflict of interest)

      i reiterate once again, sell oil, gold, silver, miners like there is no tomorrow, cause it’s so bearish that i can smell from a mile away.

      $usd, i see straight up, new 2017 high for a few years.
      (sorry, my reading is different from Tony’s) We will see.

      i have charts to support my calls on oil, gold, $usd
      if it matters to you and like to see, please let me know a way to send it to you (i do not want to have my contact on the “internet”).

      btw, i already admit i have lost round one to scottie and showed my losses (nobody would show & brag about losses), but a fact is a fact.
      so my analysis should be discounted, as scottie said, i have no credit, just a 15 years old boy.

  32. JK1987 says:

    scotty, congrats, you won the round one, it’s undeniable.
    i am a buy and hold, not knocked down yet. wasted 15 gains, only have 4 remaining.
    i set a goal, won’t give up until goal achieved. the remaining are just noise to me.

    round two starts.
    if you want to knock me down, tza needs to go below 15, then i will totally surrender.
    squeeze and knock me out if you can, show me how much you got.

    on the other hand, what will make you surrender? i would be very disappointed if you got knocked out only a few %(say less than 10%). don’t tell me you are a chicken as you “talked” as how big you are and is a perma


  33. fenster6 says:

    Well Tony I see you removed your ‘inflection point’ and moved it to up-trend, well I went short near the close in size (for me) lets see which way it plays out.

  34. bfquant says:

    Tony. Is there not the potential for a flat structure in the dollar with a longer term B high at the end of last year?

  35. Trying to wrap my head of the possibilitie this is micro 3 of minute 3. Should be 5 waves up no higher than 2498. If not even more confused. If so, micro 2 was deep 74 point, micro 4 should be shallow. .38 or 31 points micro 4 to 2467. Micro 5 80 points 3 can’t be the shortest 2547. Then minute 4 say 50 percent retrace 71 to 2476 minute 5 up and say it equals minute 1 125 ends Int 3 at 2601. Then after an 801 Int 3 Int 4 would possible retrace 400 points to 2201. Then Int 5 would get you to 2800 ish
    If at all correct.best bull case is 2601 before a possible 10-15 percent correction.

    Bear case now. 2496-2498 ends minor 4. Need to get below 2456 to confirm
    Second bear an ending diagonal sp 2510i-2520 while we wait for Dow to make new high and allow nq to 6100ish to end Int 3.
    This week or next should show the way.

    Good luck all.

  36. 56rambler says:

    Sir, question. Assuming we are in Minute iii of Minor 5, when Minor 5 completes, it will also complete Intermediate iii. Can you provide a rough estimate for a range for how large of a drop Intermediate iv might be? Many thanks!

  37. Not so sure these new highs eliminate downside risk although identifying specific catalysts and timing is challenge. From today:

    Leon Cooperman said a 5% pullback in equity markets was likely, and could start soon, although he declined to say what the catalyst could be, noting that there were a number of factors, including North Korea and the potential for disappointing earnings, that could begin to weigh on stocks.

    Recent dips in U.S. stocks have been shallow and short-lived, with few declines of 3%, let alone 5% or 10%, the level that typically defines a market correction.

    • mcgcapital says:

      Agree.. the 5% dip is looking elusive so not sure we’re going to get one this year now, which is unusual. However, it does feel like we’re in for more of the same vs the activity since we first hit 2400 in March. Slow chop higher but with dips along the way.. probably 2% up at a time followed by 1.5% down. I don’t see a clean rally with no dips going forward until there’s been some sort of flush out – 3% isn’t enough to achieve that

  38. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #OIL at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

    • phil1247 says:

      hi bouraq…
      i saw that you had your stop at 48.50
      that is the .618 resistance ….but da boyze like to dip in 4 or 5 cents
      before they reverse it
      look at mondays low of 47 ….. the .618 was 47.04
      so if you can give it another few cents .. you might be able to
      whamboozel the boys instead of them doing it to you ……..

  39. scottycj1 says:

    JK’s losses.

    Sorry to hear about JK’s losses….. 128.56 211.61

    Thank God he kept them to 5 digits

  40. scottycj1 says:

    fionamargaret says:
    September 12, 2017 at 12:30 pm

    ..averages will close lower today…

    Danger Fiona…..sequences obliterated….sequences obliterated !!!!

  41. Don Jenver says:

    Still looking for 3000 SPX?

  42. llerias7 says:

    Thanks, Can you give me the EW count for the DOW ?

  43. keepitsimple says:

    Thanks for everything Tony…you’ve been on the right side of the market for many months now…kudos.

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