Thursday update

SHORT TERM: quiet open quiet day, DOW -23

Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight, then crept higher heading into the open. At 8:30 weekly jobless clams were reported substantially higher (hurricane related?). The market opened three-points above yesterday’s SPX 2466 close, then immediately began to pullback. By 10:30 the SPX had reached 2461 and began to rebound. At 11am the SPX was at 2468, then declined to 2460 by 12:30. After that the market worked its way higher into a SPX 2465 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.15%. Bonds gained 17 ticks, Crude slipped 5 cents, Gold rallied $13, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Tomorrow: wholesale inventories at 10am, then consumer credit at 3pm.

The market opened higher today at SPX 2469, dropped down to 2460, then stayed in that range for the rest of the day. Since today was an inside day of yesterday’s range, (2459-2470), the short-term count noted yesterday is unchanged. However, a potential repetitive pattern has emerged. If you look at the hourly chart of the March-April correction and compare it to the price action since the August 2491 high, it’s beginning to look quite similar. After the March high there was a big a-b-c down, a smaller a-b-c up, then a gradual choppy decline until the low was hit in April. From the recent August high there has been a big a-b-c down, a smaller a-b-c up, and now a potential choppy move lower yet again. Short term support is at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Short term momentum remained at/below neutral all day. Best to your Friday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: inflection point continues

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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75 Responses to Thursday update

  1. johnnymagicmoney says:

    miners are acting like they should in an uptrend. Prior to recently if they started to get crushed they would just keep selling off all day long. Today they are bouncing strong of their lows for the day. Plus I don’t think any shorts want to keep their positions heading into the weeNKend

  2. phil1247 says:

    SLV is at short entry level 17.07
    doesnt mean it cant eventually go thru
    but taking profits on half of SLV now
    SI held ext long by a fingernail on this mornings dip

    is stronger …perfect bounce off .50 ext long level

  3. ariez5 says:

    Please inform the uneducated. How the — is the Dow up 36 points and the VIX is up 8%?

  4. bfquant says:

    Mkt 10 basis point move high to low over 3 hours. Apparently, this is not just a pre-Labor Day phenomenon. Either traders are still on vaca or the PsyOp continues. 10 basis points is 0.1%

  5. fotis2 says:

    And now for your listening pleasure I probably won’t get as many likes as Fiona’s choice but hey different folks different strokes!

    • H D says:

      Man, that came out of left field for me Fotis. The Forrest Gump avatar and now slipknot?+1 let’s turn this Friday up.

  6. Lee X says:

    Hey Lunker,

    Are you staying or going ?
    Be safe !!!
    I’m up in Chicagoland

  7. phil1247 says:


    you know football… you probably know Bob Diaco……yes?

    well ….. cl will probably continue to be a “spaghetti bowl of frustration”
    could be a huge triangle forming….
    sideways for 16 months
    still trading elsewhere .
    . but this sideways will end someday

  8. fotis2 says:

    Clever!They let the $ float down the whole day and now they hammering it back up same play like 2 weeks ago

  9. phil1247 says:

    gold and silver are heading down to test their extensions
    now we will see how aggressive the buyers of metals really are

  10. fionamargaret says:


  11. Meanwhile,Santelli addressed tumbling interest rates.
    “Normally,low and FALLING interest rates would indicate a weak economy,but you can’t assume that’s what’s happening anymore.The Central Banks are in such control that a cause and effect relationship of yield/economic health is not possible .The dollar falling is especially noticeable against China’s and North Korea’s currency–making this dollar move,probably,a trade weapon.”
    Agree with both points.Both bonds and currencies are like puppets to manipulate.Probably stocks as well (as I’ve said repeatedly).The world economie could not handle a market sell off–therefore,its not allowed to happen.

  12. Hope red dragon is ok. Always post a morning update that I enjoy reading.
    Anyone in Florida stay safe as possible

    • phil1247 says:

      wow … that was a fast response ….

    • reddragonleo says:

      Thanks for being concerned “tryingtomakeabuck”… I was just a little late completing it. LOL. By the way, I’m a little concerned now that my wave count is not correct. There’s a chance that the larger wave B up from the 8/21 low that I speculated was breaking down into 5 medium waves is wrong and instead it ended with only 3 medium waves up (an ABC pattern) with the 2480 high last Friday.

      If so, then we are in the larger wave C down right now and just starting the first series of medium waves and smaller waves. That would imply we could see a nasty drop as early as Monday, as opposed to thinking there is one more move up for the medium wave 5 to complete.

      Instead we would be in the medium wave 2 up of the larger wave C down right now and we’d see the medium wave 3 down on Monday. Again, wave counting (as least my wave counting as I’m no expert) is just my “best guess” and not set in stone by any means.

      Anyway, if we can get a little more upside into the close today I’d be more inclined to take a “starter” short position and short more if we rally up on Monday. I’d be going out to October so I’m prepared to have it go against me for a day or so if I’m wrong. But I’m now leaning 60/40 in favor of move down on Monday versus my original wave count that suggests a move up.

      P.S. I’m not in FL anymore (was in Jacksonville for half my life, about 25 years). I’m in Ohio now, safe from the hurricane. Of course I have friends down there I worry about too.

  13. GDX resistance still firm,though dollar is down enough that it COULD have pushed througn.Maybe,depending on NK,Monday is the day.OR nothing of consequence happens and gold has a big selloff Monday.My guess is the latter just because resistance like this,will usually need a big event to knock down.Good luck all.

  14. mjtplayer says:

    Anyone attempting to short Equifax (EFX)? Massive data breach, perhaps the largest breach in history; this company is in for some tough times ahead….

  15. jobjas says:

    US Dollar index – projected

  16. NEWBIE says:

    Lets see how much money I make tomorrow!

  17. fotis2 says:

    Boy was I wrong about the $ just fell over the cliff.

  18. According to NewsMax,Trump has ordered any missiles,sent in the direction of Guam–to be shot down.Gold up $7 so far tonight.

  19. stormchaser80llc says:

    After 85 trading days, the SPX 20 dma has slipped below its 50 dma for the 3rd day in a row.

    My swing trading signals have been BULLISH since 8/25 and 8/29 respectively. My proprietary Technicals Model was higher for the 7th day in a row, with a positive divergence at 9/1’s peak vs. SPX. It was an odd previous bottom as the Model did not positively diverge as it usually does in advance. My statistically driven Volatility Model continues to decrease in volatility significantly.

    8/29’s SPX Hindenburg Omen ended up being a bottom reversal variety. Many HO in June and July leading up to the All Time High, then 5 more during the decline in mid August. None since then.

    SPX has pulled back through several key support levels and now is wavering around the 2464 support/resistence line. With 2 minor negative divergences on the SPX hourly chart at the lows on 9/5, a lower low is likely before sustained bullish activity.

    VIX generated its hourly MACD SELL signal Wednesday. Drilling down to the 15-min chart, positive divergences were strengthened at today’s lows. Higher VIX is likely in the short term.

    Market Internals, participation and breadth indicators, many of them in positive territory, yet are well off peaks earlier in the year. SPX A-D line in an exception, making a new All Time High on 9/1, obviously above its 20 dma which is now ascending. SPX McClellan made its 6th positive reading in a row.

    The Yield Curve is flattening which continues to support the notion of a weak economy. This as TLT:TIP shows deflation fears have been climbing since Spring.

    Oil paused indecisively today, and likely wont succeed a challenge of both its 200 dma and upper Bollinger Band for any significant time. Oil performed terribly during the tropical system in the Gulf which shuttered rigs (If Harvey couldn’t boost prices an east coast Irma shouldn’t help much either), and all Spring/Summer, last peaking at the beginning of the year. In an interesting development today, HYG:IEF made a lower low, but created significant positive divergences in doing so. This suggests that Risk-On should return soon.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site ( However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

    I want you to know I am quite serious about developing my site the right way, I am in this for the long haul, and I will improve my services at every opportunity I have. Traders this next part is for you! I recently uploaded a significant upgrade to the Trading Platform (see top menu of my site for the link). I offer 3 diverse models for the SPX AND the consensus of all 3 models, at time-periods of 1 min/5 min/10 min/15 min/30 min/1 hr/2 hr/4 hr and soon longer periods. No matter how frequently you like to trade, I will have you covered. I even have the ETF GLD (gold) available at the 1 min timeframe. These timeframes, available trading vehicles (why not oil, why not china etf?), and models will continue to expand over time! If you are an active trader, you will view my site as something more than just a daily analysis of the markets. I want traders to live here during market hours! I want us all to make money!

    • this is good just can give us a top line call (above the analysis) i.e be short or long s&p 500, so we can work out through time whether we should be listening to you or whether you are more noise in the swirl pool

    • fionamargaret says:

      If anybody is reading the blog and interested in learning how to count the waves, contact Tony at You will receive individual tutoring until you feel at one with the method.

      If you are interested in music, and would like me to play something that touches you in some way, contact me. Even talking horses comes into play occasionally….x

  20. mjtplayer says:

    2 hours to game time for the defending world champs as they begin their quest to go back-to-back!

    If Goodell has the guts to show his face in Foxborough, I can’t wait to hear/see the fans’ reaction. He will need his own security detail if he does show…

  21. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #GOLD at

  22. allen kimble says:

    Yeah….don’t think a repeat of the spring time is in the cards here. More like a fake breakdown or something….then reverse. Actually I would prefer this, just to catch the wave higher thereafter.

  23. captbara says:

    Canary in the gold mine, baby. Don’t bother messing around with boring B waves equities.

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