Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +54

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.3%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and then began to rise. At 8:30 the trade deficit was reported slightly wider. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2467, hang around that level until about 10am, then began to pullback. At 10am ISM services were reported higher. Just past 11am the SPX hit 2459, after FED vice chairman Fischer’s resignation, then began to move higher. At 2pm the FED released its Beige book: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook201709.htm. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 2470, then dipped too close at 2466.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.30%. Bonds lost 10 ticks, Crude added 50 cents, Gold slid $7, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Tomorrow: the ECB at 7:30, and weekly jobless claims at 8:30.

The market gapped up at the open today, reversing yesterday’s gap down, and nearly opened where the market had gapped down to yesterday: today 2467, yesterday 2469. After the open the market pulled back to SPX 2459, then rallied to 2470. Interesting action. With today’s rally we now have another short-term wave reversal. From SPX 2417 we see the following: 2455-2428-2480-2447-2470? This still can be read either way: corrective/impulsive. It all depends on what occurs next. Short term support is at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Short term momentum continued to rise today and nearly hit overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: inflection point continues

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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159 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. from 2417 are we still counting 5 waves up
    2455-2428-2480-2447-? would think wave 3 was 52 points means wave 5 shouldn’t and end at most 2498. Which could be micro 3, could be an ending diagonal. So in my opinion worst case is up another 11 points then a pull back of of 31 points. .38 of the 81 point move up . that is 2467. then either micro 5 up to 2540 ish to finish the extension and then we get a 5 percent correction or we continue lower from the 2467 level.

    My 2 cents. Never got a chance to short today, just straight up with 2 point maybe 3 point pull back.
    so looking to short the close

  2. vivelaamo says:

    This blogs been brilliant last few days. Everyone helping each other along with good humour. It’s so much better this way.

  3. vivelaamo says:

    Any tips on how to let winners run? I’m so tempted to take profits on all of RUT shorts even though my target is 1350!

    • stcoleridge says:

      Trailing stop?

    • fotis2 says:

      Trailing stop.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Are you guys successful with trailing stops? I always get stopped out before it reverses hard.

      • Lee X says:

        I’ve always traded futures so it’s pretty easy to get stopped out on winners and losers, scratching a trade is for millennials 😉

    • Lee X says:

      Remove ur pelvic region from the screens and keyboards and go for a walk , run or hike
      And if you’re like me and ur suffering from a torn muscle spark a big fattie up 😁

    • Mary773 says:

      Matthew Frailey uses 16 and 34 bar exponential moving averages as a trend maintenance tool. In this case, you would stay short until a) Your objective is achieved; or b) the dotted line crosses back above the solid line. Works quite well in trending markets. Chews you up in ranges.

      Good luck.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24RUT&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=12&id=p31871557149&listNum=36&a=543316107

    • mcgcapital says:

      It feels to me like there’s no point in trying to run stuff in this market.. it’s not an up or down trend, just sideways. FTSE basically big down day, followed by hammer candlestick before 7300 breaks, followed by follow through to the upside, followed by another small push higher, followed by a range day retesting high followed by break of support and another big down day. Rinse and repeat. It’s actually hard to see what’s going to break the pattern.. no real reason to buy but the dips just get bought so fast

      • vivelaamo says:

        Thanks for all the tips guys. I like the fat splif one the most 🙂 I’m going to turn my screen off, delete my app, and let it run. Either RUT hits 1350 or 1410 first.

    • JK1987 says:

      vive, to be specific, we both are with the same short, tza
      for me, i weight in the risk reward, and situation of rut.
      rut has completed the wave structure at the top line, and with the pattern of megaphone.
      i had tza at low 15’s when rut reached the top line.
      you had tza at low 16’s at rut 62% retrace, that usually is the max retrace, and second best entry.
      risk: rut go back to the top line one time with tza at 15. is that $1 risk tolerable?
      reward: megaphone target at rut 840
      for me, i am going for rut 840. i did not want the previous tza 18.5 even if i knew it’s going back to 16.
      the risk for you is $1 for tza, the reward is huge with rut 840
      take easy, don’t need to trade every stop, and life will be much easy.
      that’s my 2c on tza, hope it’s helpful

      • vivelaamo says:

        Thanks Jk. Your target is RUT equivalent 840?? Wow. I’m looking to load up longs at 1350 area for 1600!

        • mcgcapital says:

          We can’t even stay down 1% so god knows how it’s going to go down 40% just yet. I expect a move like that when the next recession kicks off but it’s going to take loads of time and won’t happen overnight, plus should be quite obvious as volatility will be much higher

        • JK1987 says:

          vive, rut 840 is just wave 1 initial target. i will take tza profit there, and wait for wave 2 bounce then re-enter. final target is … (that’s too much to say for most seniors here). it won’t happen in a week, a months, take years, and the reward is huge. i have it all mapped out.

          • vivelaamo says:

            Does tza work like stocks? Buy and hold with only fee being initial commission and tax?

            • JK1987 says:

              all business has overhead. the overhead is very minor considering the eventual profits.
              for example, if you had tna at 2’s in 2009. would you care about the overhead? and would you hold it till the final target reached and not not trading in & out all stops?
              market is at late or final stage, which side has the better reward than risk for long term?

            • JK1987 says:

              vive, talk about reward.
              how much tna can rise even if your target 1600 reached? a few bucks for tna?
              say conservatively, tza retrace 50% from it’s top price of 37.6K
              you know how much that worth? worth to hold with $1 risk?
              you can retire with that much of profits.

              • vivelaamo says:

                JK In UK we use spread bets or CFDs to trade with margin. You trade by the point. So 1600 RUT at let’s say £200 a point is not a bad return although yes very risky. I don’t understand how tza or tna works. I need to research this.

                I see your point with tza though.

      • I assume, of course, you guys know that this is a leveraged, daily inverse? The “daily” part means that it is reset to neutral at the end of each day. So of you don’t do a parallel reset, you could get wiped out as TZA does nothing but switch back and forth with up and down.
        The meat is in strong one-directional moves. These are not buy-and-hold things. They are designed to make or break you.

        If someone here has bravely held these through ups and downs, please let us know your experience.

        • JK1987 says:

          same situation, if you buy and hold tna at 2’s, you are fine with 50’s right now.
          unless you are as good as vive to catch every up 7 down moves, buy and hold tza or tna is good for long term. in the long run, these overheads can be omitted with massive rewards.

        • JK1987 says:

          rut down 0.25% for the day.
          tza up 0.79% for the day. 0.04% extra than 3X return.
          tza AH sitting at the same price as the close. no reset.

    • pooch77 says:

      Vive watch the cross tomorrow,i said Sunday low on Friday,looking pretty good

  4. phil1247 says:

    mjt

    target hit…. now falling back into buy zone again

  5. 25.58…2 ticks short of 25.60 lower black crow on GDX.Let’s see how this goes.Done for the day.Later.

  6. Interesting . I shorted the close yesterday , looking for a big down day today. May have to cover they cant seem to push it down.

  7. Not in the next 3 minutes , so for 99.9% of you this will be irrelevant !

    Lots of money in this trade
    Targets
    2406 first stop- then lower /Iwm 131.38/XIV 58/ qqq 134.16
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/VVVwPb0x/

    • stcoleridge says:

      Like you say, unlikely in the next three minutes, but do you have a rough timeline in mind?

      • FROM THIS POST
        XIV – WENT DOWN 22 PTS
        IWM – WENT DOWN 9 PTS
        QQQ- DID NOT DO MUCH

        p.s u were on the thread , go back and look
        the levels I put forth above will get tagged next 3- 7 weeks

        Darkness (@SirDarkness) says:
        July 19, 2017 at 9:33 am
        this guy had the chart the whole time ….out of all longs short as of 10 am
        short xiv 93.2 …short qqq 143.75 …short iwm 142.88
        can easily see 132 on iwm & qqq next 6 weeks

    • pooch77 says:

      Would just like to see rut close under 1395 and continue down the following day instead bouncing back up everyday

  8. JK1987 says:

    gaps from Sep 1 needs to be filled:
    spx 2476.55
    dji 21987.56
    ndx 5987.50
    nasdaq 6435.33
    rut, no gap 🙂
    tran 9356.02, filled

  9. fotis2 says:

    Thoughts on CL?Back in the channel again and someone wants to trap it just there am suspecting mjt… 😉
    https://invst.ly/51w8h

  10. phil1247 says:

    mjt

    bonds hit target …………tyx at 2.652
    sell that rip
    buy that dip
    2.639 is a big resistance level

  11. JK1987 says:

    numbers
    GLD 88.6% @128.3969
    GDX 50%
    SLV @50%
    USO 38.2%
    USD 38.2%

  12. Mr C,how do you explain bond yields falling in an economy thats not in recession (yet)?ISM numbers are good,employment,GDP…but falling yields.Makes no sense at all.

  13. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE 3: While the bs’ers and the bears (aka bores) were fighting their (verbal) battles here, NDX, SLV and GLD have broken out big!

    • Lee X says:

      What do you think of ZW ?
      Thx

      • locanbbs says:

        Don’t follow ZW closely, but it, like most everything else at the moment, is in a downtrend, The major market cycle low coming next Friday is really making itself felt now. Either we get a good bounce after that or a bear market may really be in the offing. Looks to me like the CB’s are stifling the markets, intent on putting their program through whatever the cost. Because this is no evident to the public, they seem to be able to get away with it!

    • H D says:

      locanbbs, nice call on gold! Simple approach to it to. Kudos. There have been a few here bullish metals all year. IMO 91 is important level for dollar and may contribute. Keep us posted.

      • fionamargaret says:

        Look yesterday at Kimble’s chart HD, and see what I said to Learned…..this is a 3, not a 2 as Kimble suggests..x

        • fionamargaret says:

          …maybe tagging along with the OEW group since I was 4 has helped some….but HD if you don’t mind please play the 10 for me too…x

      • locanbbs says:

        Yes, but when I wanted to make a follow-up trade early this morning, it seemed to be going well until obvious and really massive CB intervention “clubbed” the rally to death. Looking at the Euro/USD chart I can see the same. It was almost as if a “war” between China (?) and the CB’s was being carried out. Toward the end I could see in the tick chart literally EVERY buy was opposed with an equal and opposite sell order. Finally the bulls did unfortunately surrender, obviously demoralized and over-powered.
        I have read that China wants to initiate its own Gold market, where sellers have to prove possession of the Gold they are selling. Obviously the CB’s are selling short Gold that they don’t physically have, confident that they can overpower any upward movement and buy it back later cheaper.
        Am I dreaming, was it a nightmare?

        • fionamargaret says:

          I think you have to believe the charts will out.

          In gold I have the bull market peak in 2011, then down until June ’16 , wave 1 up in June 2016, down in wave 2 in January 2017, now up in wave 3 to about. 1600…
          Oil reached its low at 26, then wave 1 up in May 2016, wave 2 down in June 2017, now wave 3 up to about 65..
          Oil is ambling around until it really gets going in 3…back in equilibrium today (advantage down), but look for 3 to start. The miners in this scenario have huge potential, ditto for energy companies.
          You write really interesting thought provoking stuff Locan, and I do like your charts.
          I am on my own tonight on Friday update, so visit if you would like.

          If you followed my day picks today you did no better than break even. Shorting the QQQ and S&P saved my bacon from oil doing its crash thing.

  14. pooch77 says:

    50 point Dow reversal,what happened? That was quick

  15. Transports will not roll over–for whatever reason.Not bearish until they do.

  16. fionamargaret says:

    Think oil is going higher along with gold (remember I said yesterday gold was going to break out).
    UWT, UGAZ, UGLD, USLV.

  17. H D says:

    You already know what I’m going to say. After sellers hit the +10 early balance, Yesterday’s range 2459-2469. Sellers hit it again. ES sold off to 2458, rallied 10 handles 2468 and ES got sold again. 4:4 on the fade this week. There are harder methods.

  18. bfquant says:

    The u.s dollar index appears to have definitively taken out long term support.

  19. locanbbs says:

    GOLD and SILVER breaking up along with US stocks (see my comments below with charts).

  20. phil1247 says:

    ESU7

    sideways possible triangle
    bulls have the advantage
    bullish above ……………………………2454
    target………………………………………2474
    then …………………………………………2494

  21. pooch77 says:

    WTF Drago could increase stimulus??? Are they anticipating bad news????

    • vivelaamo says:

      Europe is a mess. Don’t be fooled by recovery reports. The PIGS are export nations. Strong euro will stifle them even more.

      You should read the arrogant comments coming from European Politcal leaders about Britain leaving. It’s a joke!

      • mjtplayer says:

        Agree vive, Europe is a total disaster. The ECB is monetizing the debt of EU nations in an attempt to lessen the effects and fallout when individual countries start going bankrupt. Anything else they say are just lies, this is not “stimulus” and they know it. Also, what the ECB is doing with the QE program is illegal via the Maastricht Treaty, but since when do governments and politicians obey their own laws?

      • fotis2 says:

        You guys are waaay better off out of the circus called the EU European politicians in particular have zero touch with what is happening around them and not interested in finding out none of them ever had a regular job and probably wouldn’t know the difference between a screwdriver and a hammer.

      • pooch77 says:

        I am assuming that is why dax was up 160 points earlier today

  22. “The dollar once,it was the rage uh huh
    His-tor-y has turned a page uh huh
    …and the beat goes on.”
    Equities going up
    no matter what the dollar is doing–save NK temper tantrums.Gold DID embed yesterday.GLD and GDX already there.This is where the black crows spread their wings again to protect 25.60-25.80.Huge resistance,but a breakthrough is very bullish.Too early to get the popcorn out,but a suitable alternative(of your choice)is recommended,to view all this activity..Trump says,”Eclipse glasses not required .”Later all.

    • fotis2 says:

      Ok logic does not always work on the Market but logically with the $ going down equities are cheaper therefore up.Now everyone is expecting $ to go even more down gold to the skies but what if $ reverses right here.

  23. vivelaamo says:

    Make or break time for my Eur/gbp short. Come on Mario. Do what’s right.

  24. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE 2: With the rapidly falling value of the US $, export possibilities of US firms advancing, leading to surprising breakout of US stock markets this morning.

  25. lunker1 says:

    Tony
    11 year solar activity cycle and we’re near the low, but yet the largest solar flares were yesterday and in 2006. Sounds like sharp bear market rallies. SPX peaked in 2007. Is 2018 the next one?

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/the-sun-just-released-the-most-powerful-solar-flare-in-more-than-a-decade/ar-AAroK2Q

  26. JK1987 says:

    https://gyazo.com/fd50b5c49425616db4abfb9b7dde4881

    we do know the correlation of the 10 y yield to the market, it’s the river of no return.
    i would be surprised if market does not drop 40% in the next few months. it will be a forced recession.
    “Lloyd Blankfein sees something in the market that ‘unnerves’ him”,
    at his position & the resources he has, why it took so long and he still does not know what’s coming, sheeple.
    cheers!

  27. I bought the Austria ETF (EWO) at 23.20 on Aug 8, 2017 and it has shown a slight loss ever since. However, it’s Relative Strength is good as well as it’s CMF indicator. When the market finally gets a fall/winter rally going, I am hoping to make money on it

  28. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: US markets still in medium-term downtrend. The double bottom caused by Tuesday’s & Wednesday’s short term market cycle lows (clearly visible on chart; in black circles) wasn’t strong enough to overcome the medium term trend, which will now should certainly last until mid-September, perhaps even beginning of October (= major cycle lows), though sideways action is possible.The “doldrums” could last till then!

    The NDX (chart) could just barely overcome the 34 sma (light blue line), stayed above it however, but stayed well below the “bearish below” line (marked “bb” on the chart; thanks to DH, emini addict).
    ndx hourly futures –
    https://imgur.com/a/ZU2NN

  29. torehund says:

    Good reason they denotes this time of year fall, just macro misery across the board. Only market keeps up making 2s upon 2s. We have to be getting close to a resolution one way or the other. And Thanks to Tony for his efforts.

    • ariez5 says:

      I usually hate Russians playing Germans (examples: Richter playing Schubert or Horowitz playing Mozart), but this is another good recording, Fiona. Expressive, but never for the purpose of being idiosyncratic.

      • fionamargaret says:

        I know what you are saying….sometimes a lack of light and shade, a harshness…but then comes Sokolov with his clarity of note and Nikolayeva who has so much expression I found more layers I had not picked up in others. A touch of elegance and delight. x

    • vivelaamo says:

      Thanks Fiona. Hope those that keep using the word ‘complacent’ read the first paragraph of RJ today.

      • fionamargaret says:

        …and did you take a look at the Weekly Charts Vive…I thought they were quite interesting.
        Did you buy ERX when it was at the 52 week low, and at the base of my pattern…I did and have done well so far. I also like DBC…up to the 20’s or so….see you later…x

    • CampFreddie says:

      thanks Fiona – Charts are just what I wanted to see.

  30. stormchaser80llc says:

    After 85 trading days, the SPX 20 dma has slipped below its 50 dma for the 2nd day in a row.

    My swing trading signals have been BULLISH since 8/25 and 8/29 respectively. My proprietary Technicals Model was higher for the 6th day in a row, with a positive divergence at Friday’s peak vs. SPX. It was an odd bottom as the Model did not positively diverge as it usually does in advance. My statistically driven Volatility Model continues to decrease in volatility.

    8/29’s SPX Hindenburg Omen ended up being a bottom reversal variety. Many HO in June and July leading up to the All Time High, then 5 more during the decline in mid August. None since then.

    SPX has pulled back through several key support levels. With 2 minor negative divergences on the SPX hourly chart, a lower low is likely before sustained bullish activity.

    VIX generated its hourly MACD SELL signal today. Drilling down to the 15-min chart, positive divergences were put in at today’s lows. Higher VIX is likely in the short term.

    Market Internals, participation and breadth indicators slightly improved today, many of them in positive territory, yet well off peaks earlier in the year. SPX A-D line in an exception, making a new All Time High Friday, obviously above its 20 dma which is now ascending. SPX McClellan made its 5th positive reading in a row.

    The Yield Curve is flattening which continues to support the notion of a weak economy. This as TLT:TIP shows deflation fears have been climbing since Spring.

    Oil jumped higher today, likely wont succeed a challenge of both its 200 dma and upper Bollinger Band for any significant time. Oil performed terribly during the tropical system in the Gulf which shuttered rigs (If Harvey couldn’t boost prices an east coast Irma shouldn’t help much either), and all Spring/Summer, last peaking at the beginning of the year.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com) However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

    I want you to know I am quite serious about developing my site the right way, I am in this for the long haul, and I will improve my services at every opportunity I have. Traders this next part is for you! I recently uploaded a significant upgrade to the Trading Platform (see top menu of my site for the link). I offer 3 diverse models for the SPX AND the consensus of all 3 models, at time-periods of 1 min/5 min/10 min/15 min/30 min/1 hr/2 hr/4 hr and soon longer periods. No matter how frequently you like to trade, I will have you covered. I even have the ETF GLD (gold) available at the 1 min timeframe. These timeframes, available trading vehicles (why not oil, why not china etf?), and models will continue to expand over time! If you are an active trader, you will view my site as something more than just a daily analysis of the markets. I want traders to live here during market hours! I want us all to make money!

    • lunker1 says:

      you’ve got a boatload of signals, charts and indicators but very simply you never say when you’re going long or short, what your target is, when you got out and what your profit is. At times you’re in cash at times you have calls. I’ve never seen any result of your positions and trades? What are the backtested results of these various signals? Where’s the spreadsheet?

  31. pooch77 says:

    What drop?

  32. aahmichael says:

    • Only thing holding it down is North Korea and Trump’s inability to pass any policy, its not economics global pmi’s are very strong. There are some signs these hurdles are being cleared then sentiment will swing to the short side. Maybe the ECB needs to say that everyone is going well to trigger a market reaction to bullish side via a reduction in their bond buying quota earlier than the market expectations. Should be fun tonight.

  33. lunker1 says:

    What was the drop from at 6 PM?

  34. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #SILVER at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  35. JK1987 says:

    Tony thanks

    GOLD MT bearish bat harmonic pattern, meaning the entire interval will be wiped out.
    https://gyazo.com/179a69b723aa7749f2a41f099b0970c1
    above is MT picture

    i was planning to buy big amount of gold a few months ago, canceled after seeing the horrifying “ace”. will buy at the projected long term cycle low.

    for big picture,
    as JK said,
    JK1987 says:
    September 6, 2017 at 12:24 pm

  36. llerias7 says:

    Probably SPX is trapped in a huge 4th wave Triangle A-B-C-D-E. Currently in squiggles of c down.

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