Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then lower, DOW -234

Over the extended weekend the Asian markets lost 0.8%, and Europe lost 0.5%. US index futures were lower Sunday night and Monday night, and heading into the open. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2469, dipped to 2466, and then rebounded. The SPX had closed at 2477 on Friday. At 10am factory orders were reported lower. Around 10:30 the SPX hit 2472 and then resumed its decline. At 1pm the SPX had dropped to 2447, then started to rebound. At 3:30 the SPX hit 2459, then ticked down to close at 2458.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.90%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.95%. Bonds gained 24 ticks, Crude rose $1.30, Gold rallied $14, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Tomorrow: the trade deficit at 8:30, ISM services at 10m, then the Beige book at 2pm.

Last Tuesday the market gapped down on a N.K. related news event. Then right after the open the market rallied 52-points over the next 3-days, with only two 6-point pullbacks along the way. Today, another Tuesday, another N.K. related news event, the market gaps down at the open again, and this time it tanks. With market pundits coming back from summer holiday, Congress back in session, and N.K. ratcheting up the threats, it would appear the dull days of summer are gone. From Friday’s SPX 2480 high, the market has now dropped 33-points in just one trading day (2480-2447). The short-term wave pattern from SPX 2417 has now turned choppy: 2455-2428-2480-2447. Nevertheless, it can still go either way: corrective/impulsive. The originally anticipated correction has been on again – off again for weeks. Eventually this will get resolved. Short term support is at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold at the low. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: inflection point remains

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS:

 

About tony caldaro

Investor
This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

94 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. vipulm555 says:

    SmartZ,

    Patience pays, rewards soon

  2. im shorting this area 2470, looking for a big down day tomorrow.

    Good luck all

  3. phil1247 says:

    es
    in extension longs
    bull above 2465
    2494 target in reach as long as ext long holds
    took entry

  4. vivelaamo says:

    I love gold. So shiny.

    • H D says:

      A few here have been bullish gold all year. +$200 So shiny. Little crowded now. It’ll test the 1300 breakout at some point.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Thanks Vive…I know my answer to Michael seemed pretty obtuse…yours is better.

  5. Gold selling as debt ceiling deal rumored.3 month extension.Ira thought gold would not embed today,though GLD had.GDX iffy at this point–will probably start a retracement as well.A GDX drop to 24 very doable.Good luck all.

  6. Hi,Tony
    I’m in doubt if intermediate III is already done or not(finished in a truncated wave),thanks

    https://invst.ly/4-884

    https://invst.ly/4-8rj

    https://invst.ly/519io

  7. mjtplayer says:

    10yr down to 2.06%, getting ever closer to 2%. TLT still marching towards the $130-$131 area

  8. H D says:

    Yesterday’s close, 2457. Early balance today, 2467. 10 HanDles. Nothing fancy but it works day-after-day. I know some hacks that took an easy 5 points on the fade.

      • vivelaamo says:

        What are you trying to show here? Unless I’m missing something the present looks nothing like 2008.

        • JK1987 says:

          P V during 2007-2008, TRAN topped 7 months later than SPX/DJI.
          from this major top history fact, assumption of TRAN topped first, then SPX/DJI might need a re-consideration.
          that’s the long shot.

          short term perfect Fibonacci price and and time ratio is for short term traders.
          you sold your physical gold yet as you mentioned? imho, that would be the best choice for the next few years, then buy back at a much discounted price.

          • vivelaamo says:

            I see. Thanks for answering. I sold some physical gold today as needed some cash. Half of holding. Happy with price. Yes would look to buy back over the next year or so if get the chance again.

            Cheers.

            • JK1987 says:

              i am seeing gold price possibly would got CUT IN HALF in the next few years. i got an proprietary ace at hand, that says it’s the mother nature, almost a done deal.
              count on it.
              i don’t hate gold, and currently do not trade gold or any commodity.

      • wanderer says:

        Not sure what this has to do with “mother” and “nature”.

  9. fionamargaret says:

    Using some of the stocks from yesterday’s. list.
    UWT, UGAZ, UGLD, USLV, ERX, DBC, JNUG,…

  10. pooch77 says:

    Weak bounce ,down should resume tomorrow into Friday close

  11. NK anniversary is Sept 9th.Supposedly Jung Un will send off some type of missile.Unless its a nuke the selloff will be negligible.Market is reflexively buying any NK antics–on the premise that none of this leads to an EMP or WW3.Makes sense until it doesn’t–because then the stock market won’t really matter,will it?
    So except for these 200 drops,seems like staying in is the move–especially after Sept 9th.Good luck all.

  12. Sethu says:

    Set aside the technicals for a moment . The jittery bulls or week bulls would not love uncertainty and would like to cash in the profits. Hence my view mkts will seek lower levels certainly in this month.

  13. Bud Fox says:

    Can’t be to concerned about the stock market – IRMA is in control , from near Tampa

  14. gary61b says:

    spx PB to fill gap 2457 then up for 2492 for E of the rising triangle from 2417. possibility.

  15. vipulm555 says:

    SmartZ,

    Back to new highs n breakout this Friday to next week (OPEX)

    Trade sanctions in plan for this weekends.

  16. phil1247 says:

    / CLV7

    phil1247 says:
    August 31, 2017 at 12:36 pm
    mjt

    clv7
    the long from lows supported at 45.56 daily target hit at 45.72
    now if 47.65 is traded above the series is broken and
    you have to be prepared
    for the full retracement again
    at 50.42
    if you remember
    there was quite a big front run there
    and we could return there

  17. phil1247 says:

    fbqueen , lunker, mcg, chico, Stephen and Softball

    thanks for the show of support
    Tonys advice is to ignore the trolls
    so lets do that
    because this is a key time in the markets
    and we should not be wasting our time on nonsense

  18. ipman1893 says:

    Hello Tony,

    I would like to confirm my understanding that when int.v (purple color text) is completed in SPX, this means completion of Major 1 (black color text) of Primary 3?

    Thank you.

  19. torehund says:

    I recommend you all to listen to Putins exellen speech concerning NK. There is a new man in Town whether we like it or not. Kim will feel secure once he has GOT a functional rocket with a bomb inside. Then the risk subsides. Martin had this cycle change spotter with end of US expansion in 2015,75 the day Putin went into Syria. Its become too risky to expand, and all countries not in favor feel they are next up to be over-ran by US interest. Why not just step down for good and each country start doing whats best internally without intervention. Think this is why Trump got elected, but he inherited a mess which is now haunting him.

  20. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] SPX –
    Short term island reversal. Right shoulder of a potential HS top, needs follow through. Or right shoulder of a smaller IHS bottom? or wave E-down of a bullish triangle? Interesting times. See charts.
    https://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2017/09/market-timing-update-9517.html

  21. fionamargaret says:

    Let’s see what other folks think…and Jeffrey is back..x


    Thanks Chris Kimble

    https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=78b26316-737b-4edb-8131-bc99af7946d3&mime=pdf&co=RaymondJames&id=Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com&source=mail
    Thanks Raymond James

    Thanks Tony, and everyone xx

  22. stormchaser80llc says:

    After 85 trading days, the SPX 20 dma has slipped below its 50 dma.

    My swing trading signals have been BULLISH since 8/25 and 8/29 respectively. My proprietary Technicals Model was higher for the 5th day in a row, with a positive divergence at Friday’s peak vs. SPX. It was an odd bottom as the Model did not positively diverge as it usually does in advance. My statistically driven Volatility Model is beginning to decrease in volatility.

    8/29’s SPX Hindenburg Omen ended up being a bottom reversal variety. Many HO in June and July leading up to the All Time High, then 5 more during the decline in mid August. None since then.

    SPX has pulled back through several key support levels. With only a positive divergence for MACD histogram on the hourly chart, a lower low is likely before sustained bullish activity.

    VIX generated its hourly MACD BUY signal today as alluded to on Friday. Drilling down to the 15-min chart, negative divergences were put in at today’s highs, and additional negative divergences between recent lows suggest lower VIX is on the horizon in the short term.

    Market Internals, participation and breadth indicators pulled back today, though many of them in positive territory, yet well off peaks earlier in the year. SPX A-D line in an exception, making a new All Time High Friday, obviously above its 20 dma which is now ascending. SPX McClellan made its 4th positive reading in a row.

    The Yield Curve is flattening which continues to support the notion of a weak economy. This as TLT:TIP shows deflation fears have been climbing since Spring.

    Oil jumped higher today, above all major ma except its 200 dma. Its performed terribly during the tropical system in the Gulf which shuttered rigs, and all Spring/Summer, last peaking at the beginning of the year.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com) However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

    I want you to know I am quite serious about developing my site the right way, I am in this for the long haul, and I will improve my services at every opportunity I have. Traders this next part is for you! I recently uploaded a significant upgrade to the Trading Platform (see top menu of my site for the link). I offer 3 diverse models for the SPX AND the consensus of all 3 models, at time-periods of 1 min/5 min/10 min/15 min/30 min/1 hr/2 hr/4 hr and soon longer periods. No matter how frequently you like to trade, I will have you covered. I even have the ETF GLD (gold) available at the 1 min timeframe. These timeframes, available trading vehicles (why not oil, why not china etf?), and models will continue to expand over time! If you are an active trader, you will view my site as something more than just a daily analysis of the markets. I want traders to live here during market hours! I want us all to make money!

  23. bfquant says:

    Subjective speak here, for fun. Pros/cons re mkt:
    Pros: mkt reaction to ‘news’ has been broadly positive. Long term uptrend in dow, spx, nasdaq, developed, emerging mkts, High yield (though high starting to show minor cracks) Base metals super strong. Central banks ..
    And.. (Swiss and BOJ show no sign of slowing equity purchases, and Japan Post Bank now talking equity purchases)
    Cons: cyclicals weakening on int basis, energy equity bear, Russell and s&p equal weight cracking long term trendline (thus, breadth not good despite 52 wk hi/lo indexes), vix no lower low with Aug 8th high divergence, CAPE p/e extremely high, Trump tax plan and health care sentiment waning), precious metals flashing some warnings

  24. Mary773 says:

    Thank you, Tony.

    Appears as though the simple ABC might be morphing into a complex ABC. If so, A = 9 trading days/B = 9 trading days/ C would project to September 15.

    Mere conjecture. To find out for sure, check with Kim Jong Un.

    • locanbbs says:

      Sept 15 = major market cycle low.

      • locanbbs says:

        But there are other lows “available” every month till January-February. Depends on how the charts look till then, i.e. if they have bottomed out by then or not.

    • locanbbs says:

      It does look now like the market wants to make another (second) bottom right away. Then this might be all of the correction for now.
      Compare downward thin red trendline with dots in the following (ndx hourly futures) chart –
      https://imgur.com/a/2Na0C

  25. Thanks Tony. Interesting market.

  26. vipulm555 says:

    SmartZ,

    Turn around Tuesday’s!!

  27. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #OIL at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  28. vivelaamo says:

    Question for gold Bulls. Why is now different from 2016 highs? There is strong resistance ahead in my opinion. I’m selling some physical gold tomorrow. Good price.

    • I’m neutral on gold/GDX…if GDX breaks 25.60 to 25.80(and 26 even better)a huge technical hurdle is wiped out.Then I’m bullish.Could easily reverse,lose embedded etc.,so waiting for a REAL breakout.

  29. Phil, Please ignore trolls and garbage. It is very important for one’s sanity. Most people appreciate your presence on the blog. Thanks for your time and contribution to the blog.

  30. pooch77 says:

    Stock charts still down,not good

  31. phil1247 says:

    JK

    here is the buy and sell
    now go bother somebody else

    • JK1987 says:

      thanks phil,
      i am helping you to clear the hurdle. i am much easier than others. vive and vipsmartz is much harder on you 🙂
      currently i do not trade spx, it’s for lunker’s benefit to learn as he kept on asking you the details of your day trade platform.
      i have a much better and the best system: oew

      your screenshot shows SPXL sold on Aug 31 15:37:44
      but on your post on Aug 31, you said sold half at the time 10:08 am
      timestamp not matching.

      and you still have half of SPXL left as the close of Friday Sep 1
      did you sell the other half (you cannot sell SPXL during the long weekend)? screenshot?

      ######1
      phil1247 says:
      August 31, 2017 at 10:08 am
      lunker

      i put the stop at 2459 …if the extension is good it should not
      fall below there
      took off half at target 2468

      ######2

      phil1247 says:
      September 1, 2017 at 10:07 am
      thanks gary

      all i can tell you now is that if 2472 fails
      i am outta here !

      • phil1247 says:

        go away you troll

      • mcgcapital says:

        Seriously dude stop with these long winded bullshit posts.. it’s ruining the board for others

      • vivelaamo says:

        Why are you mentioning me? I haven’t said anything to Phil.

        Good night.

      • chicotheman says:

        Phil adds more value than you do. Beyond that is moot, and hopefully mute.

      • JK it is not your responsibility to drill Phil on his trades or speak on behalf of others interested in what Phil does. And to suggest Phil should welcome your interrogations as you are softer than others is absurd because you have no right to question his trades in the first place. If you have doubts about what Phil does, simply move along and focus upon your own trades. The more time you spend obsessing over Phil, the less time you have protecting your own interests which should be your first priority. Since Tony operates and provides the content for this site, it would be Tony’s singular responsibility to deal with Phil should he feel there were issues compromising the integrity of OEW. Tony is more than capable of doing what is required; your role is limited to reading and commenting, not acting as a proctor for the site.

Comments are closed.