Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2443. After a higher open on Monday to SPX 2449 the market pulled back into the close. After hours N.K. fired a long-range missile over Japan which landed in the Pacific. Futures fell and the market gapped down at the open to SPX 2428 on Tuesday. When the US did not retaliate and stayed the course, the market rallied right into Friday afternoon hitting SPX 2480 before ending the week at 2477. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.10%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.75%. Economic reports for the week were plentiful and mixed. On the downtick: pending home sales, monthly payrolls, construction spending, consume sentiment, the Q3 GDP estimate, plus jobless claims and the unemployment rate rose. On the uptick: Case-Shiller, consumer confidence, the ADP, Q2 GDP @ 3%, personal income/spending, the CPI, and ISM manufacturing. Next week’s holiday shortened highlights are the FED’s beige book and ISM services. Best to you weekend!

LONG TERM: uptrend

We have spent the past two-three weeks reviewing various indices for potential market headwinds to our long-term bullish scenario. The Transports, which we will continue to track in the weekly update, displays a potential completed 5/9 wave bull market at the recent TRAN 9764 high. Since this index often tops months before the general indices, a completed bull market would suggest there are only months left in the general bull market. To confirm the bearish scenario a drop below TRAN 8744 would have to occur. There is the possibility, however, that Major wave 5 (8744-9764) was only Intermediate wave i of Major 5. An uptrend confirmation, then rally to new highs in the TRAN, would suggest the general bull market will not end soon, but continue to extend.

We had also been monitoring the NDX, which was displaying a potential completed 5/9 wave bull market as well at the recent NDX 5966 high. This index had not confirmed a new downtrend like the TRAN. But had been declining since July, 4.1%, and appeared ready to confirm a downtrend heading into this week. Then something quite astounding occurred. From Tuesday’s gap down opening the NDX rallied 225-points, 3.9%, in four days, negating the potential downtrend and extending the uptrend. An impressive reversal to new all-time highs. While further upside is now expected this index still suggests it is in the last uptrend of a potential 5/9 bull market. And is worth monitoring as well.

The clearest wave pattern of the major indices remains the DOW. The DOW remains in the seventh wave up from the 2016 low. It is still in an uptrend from April’s Minor 4 low at DOW 20.4K, and has not even completed Int. iii. When this uptrend does complete there is still, at least, Int. iv and Int. v to complete its bull market. As long as the DOW continues to look quite bullish, it is hard to imagine this bull market ending any time soon.

This brings us to the SPX. The influence of the NDX/DOW has created a somewhat odd count. It looks closest to the DOW/NAZ counts: Minor 5 of Int. iii underway. But it has a subdivision within its Minor 5. Maybe this is the cleanest count of them all? While we were expecting the SPX 2454 high in June to be the end of Int. iii, and the action since then an irregular Int. iv. The SPX looks ready to breakout to new highs, especially after that positive daily RSI divergence, negating the Int. iii count. Nevertheless, some would like to keep the Int. iii at SPX 2454, and slap an Int. iv at SPX 2408. Historically, this does not make sense. Significant 2nd and 4th wave corrections during bull markets are often similar in depth of decline. A 5.6% wave 2 and a 2.0% wave 4 makes no sense. In fact, in the last 100-years there have only been two previous 2% corrections. And they were the beginning of subdividing waves. For now we suspect the SPX is in Minute iii of Minor 5. We will continue to maintain the Int. iii/iv count on the daily chart until the SPX breaks out to new highs. It has definitely been a tricky bull market this year with the four major indices not correcting together at times.

MEDIUM TERM: inflection point remains

For the past 2-4 weeks the major indices have been declining in what appeared to be a correction. This may still occur, as noted by the daily chart labeling. This week, however, the animal spirits appeared to return after the gap down opening on Tuesday. The NDX/NAZ, R2K and TRAN all gained about 2.5%; the SEMIs gained 3.5%, and Biotech was up 9.0% for the week. Also the NDX/NAZ made new all-time highs, and market breadth made a new high.

Should the market rollover from here we still see support around SPX 2400. Should the market break out to new highs, the daily count will give way to the count on the hourly chart. Which has stubbornly remained over the past few weeks despite the overall market weakness. Medium term support is at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots.

SHORT TERM

The hourly chart suggests the SPX is in a subdividing Minor wave 5 of Intermediate iii. This count does align with the DOW/NAZ Minor wave 5 counts. Minor 3 topped in early-March at SPX 2401, and Minor 4 bottomed in mid-April at SPX 2328. After that low the SPX rallied to 2454 by mid-June to complete Minute i of Minor 5. Then after an historically small Minute ii correction to SPX 2408 by early-July, a rocky Minute iii was underway.

When reviewing Minute i (2329-2454), we observe a 77-point rally for Micro 1 (2329-2406) and a steep 53-point drop for Micro 2 (2406-2353). Then with an extremely oversold MACD, and positive RSI divergence, Micro wave 3 was underway. From the early-July Minute ii low, we observe a 83-point rally for Micro 1 (2408-2491) and a very steep 74-point drop for Micro 2 (2491-2417). Then again, with an extremely oversold MACD, and positive RSI divergence, it appears Micro wave 3 is underway. With downside risk looking like 3% (SPX 2400), and upside potential unlimited, risk/reward remains favorable long-term. Short term support is at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week quite overbought. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly higher for a net gain of 0.7% on the week.

European markets were mostly higher and gained 0.2%.

The DJ World index gained 1.0%, and the NYSE gained 0.9%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to uptrend and gained 0.1% on the week.

Crude remains in a downtrend and lost 1.2% on the week.

Gold is still in an uptrend and gained 2.5% on the week.

The USD remains in a downtrend but gained 0.1% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: holiday. Tuesday: factory orders at 10am. Wednesday: ISM services and the Beige book. Thursday: weekly jobless claims. Friday: wholesale inventories and consumer credit.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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369 Responses to Weekend update

  1. 129.73- 131.38 on the come …This is a no brainer
    $IWM chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/xNLYDFbJ/

  2. gary61b says:

    ES/spx wave C down or ED with E starting up. 🙂

  3. Lee X says:

    2444 pivot time

  4. travis01 says:

    This was a fairly easy setup…ride from 2432 to 2472, sit short and confirm. Now is another moment to get out of short and collect gains while direction much lower is confirmed or denied…or gamble and see. Great scalper’s market going on for past 2 months.

  5. bfquant says:

    Anyone else’s Stockcharts crash?

  6. mcgcapital says:

    FTSE on its way to 7100s here.. don’t think 7300 will hold this move with the momentum

  7. phil1247 says:

    es
    ext short
    straight down while below 2456

    • JK1987 says:

      phil1247, you seem to be a good day trader.
      you posted a screenshot of your SPXL entry last Friday.
      you got some praise, and some doubts.
      if you can post screenshots of all your scaled out of SPXL, and entry of es short, plus CL entry that would be perfect and close out all the doubts (not me, as i did day trades years ago, so i believe it’s achievable).
      i am not picking on you, just trying to see if can be helpful.
      cheers!

      • vivelaamo says:

        Phil is helpful but he must also be the only trader in the world that never gets stopped out for a loss, ever! 😊

      • mcgcapital says:

        Come on, we don’t need to see every trade.. phil’s a valued contributor to the blog and posts clear analysis so I’m not sure what the problem is. If we all start posting screenshots of our trades to prove a point then the comments section might as well be closed down as there will be no value in it

        • JK1987 says:

          just this one time, once for all to clear all the doubts.
          or the doubts and confusions from some people will always be there.
          he did once on the entry of SPXL, can do one more time on the exit part on SPXL to complete the trade. i am trying to be helpful.

          • phil1247 says:

            ok .. this is the last time i show
            but will have to do it after hours..
            and then you will go away ?

            • JK1987 says:

              yes, once for all.
              not for me, it’s for others.
              it’s for all others benefit to learn and never doubt again ever.
              SPXL + CL in & out
              i am a position trader, and do not trade spx anymore.

              • phil1247 says:

                i never said i traded cl today
                all you get is spxl

              • aahmichael says:

                On the contrary, it’s not for the benefit of anyone. Tony has repeatedly said that he doesn’t want anyone on this blog posting their trades, as he doesn’t want the blog to be used as a trading diary. If you want to see Phil’s trades, ask him to email them to you. They’re meaningless to everyone else.

              • JK1987 says:

                all entries and exits of SPXL will be good.
                no pressure, as long as you feel comfortable.
                should be a very good day for you as your beat the spx market on both directions.
                cheers!

              • fionamargaret says:

                CL. seeing Phil said “moneymaker” and “straight up”…why does he not want to show you

              • phil1247 says:

                fiona ….
                this is really the last response to you
                and hopefully you will go away also
                money maker and widow maker is a private joke between hd and me
                now stop trolling fiona

              • fionamargaret says:

                I think HD rubbished Phil with CL already today….

      • phil1247 says:

        you dont believe me….
        i dont care
        it doesnt affect my 60% gain in my brokerage account this year
        if you believe or dont

    • phil1247 says:

      took profits spxu

    • piotrekfx says:

      Phil. Why 2456 level is so important pls?

  8. vivelaamo says:

    Right time to take another break and let this run. See you at 1350 RUT.

  9. H D says:

    ES 24(55) !!! Pivot Time

  10. fionamargaret says:

    My trade suggestions were put on the blog on Sunday…..oil to 55-62..gld to 151
    JNUG, NUGT, ERX, UGLD, USLV, DBC, UGAZ, UWT….which I have had on the blog for a couple of weeks, but are still viable.
    TMF (also good for a depression)
    also like JJC, FCX,

    • fionamargaret says:

      …and interestingly enough REMX (the rare earths) are just starting to break out,
      DBB has been doing well, but more upside..

    • JK1987 says:

      fiona, good call and nice profits. but i would be careful about those commodities while they are up for good profits. i do not trade them since i took profits on GLD, NUGT, NAK on 0518 2017, just trying to see if i can be helpful.
      normally gdx should up more than gld during a bull run, but not here on the retrace.
      gdx, unless surpassing 131.15, could be a bearish bat or gartley pattern.
      the a-b-c retrace could be a variation of 2011’s a-b-c, and we know what happened thereafter.
      for your reference.
      https://gyazo.com/91367deea58cc55464a329d26607e922

      cheers!

  11. jhjoyner says:

    Just remembered Congress back from vacation!

  12. Lee X says:

    Guys you’re repeating yourselves , alot 😉

  13. phil1247 says:

    CL

    ” straight up ” …………………..until extension long fails

    ” no overhead resistance proven ” …….until extension long breaks

    just like es ….

    • phil1247 says:

      CL = moneymaker

    • H D says:

      nothing personal phil, I just think that is careless. Especially with oil. Maybe the risk is easier with those ETF’s. You said same thing about SPX. Tony’s pivot was perfect resistance. Gap down and go. Most people don’t want to eat 15 points and then start chasing the other direction. IDK maybe some do.

  14. captbara says:

    ES action from bomb lows was corrective.

  15. H D says:

    $SPX closed Friday 2476, early balance today? yup, -10 handles @ 2466. >90% odds.
    NK or no NK- Buyers and sellers don’t control the price action. Figure out what program they are running, predetermined patterns and prices and join them for the ride. Daily scalping is best practice IMO.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Nice trading HD. You get your 10 handles more often than not. But how do you know which way it will go for the 10?

      • H D says:

        vive, that’s what you have to learn for yourself. This morning you could have scalped down to the 10 handles from the open or faded it for the bounce, or both :mrgreen: Notice SPX went HWB and then went 2471-2461 too. Predetermined symmetry.
        Figure out what works for you. GL.

  16. GDX gets over 26 and 31 is back in view.Three black crows have been inpenetrable for many an attempt–so that would be impressive–to leave them in the rear view mirror..Draghi pumping the DAX up and keeping losses somewhat contained here.Everyone expecting another launch by Sept 9th.After that,a cooling off period?Possible but this is totally unpredictable with two unpredictable leaders.Later all.

  17. lunker1 says:

    imagine that, cash market is open and seems it was only a nosebleed. Wrong again chump!

  18. pooch77 says:

    When there is market uncertainty and your entering worst month of the year for stocks put your money in safe haven rut 2k

  19. fotis2 says:

    Well,Well CL

    • phil1247 says:

      told ya

      • fotis2 says:

        Thought you would of noticed the short from lows broke on daily 31 July and 1st August so next would be the long witch traded on 29/30 and 31 of August.I know DH says ”Dipped in and got a reaction” but according to his system that was a break and a clear sign to wait for the opposing long if this is not the case then I don’t get his system.Today was clear cut short on es at the 2470 after the break of the ext.long.

        • phil1247 says:

          fotis
          i dont understand what you are saying about CL
          but re: es

          yes you could short at 2470 but you stop would be at 2472.5 or so
          thats not how i do it
          i wait for the long from lows to break first
          i dont want any drawdown
          if it doesnt go my way immediately i am out .
          it just so happened today that long from lows was near 2464
          does that number sound familiar ?

  20. Amit Tiwary says:

    Hello everyone..
    Uncle Kim is crazy..he should get out more often..

    • cyanus66 says:

      Not so.
      With 17 palaces to choose from, in his place I wouldn’t get out at all.
      Unless jetting in my private plane: -AIR FORCE UN- … pun intended …

  21. H D says:

    Good luck this week. Been a while since I posted a chart. So many methods and ways to trade your time frame and your product. Here’s a snap shot of all the SPX stuff I mention. From symmetry, fibonacci sequence, elliot wave and of course Tony’s pivots. The wave 8/8 even started with a 10 handle rally! Pick your spots.

  22. fbender7 says:

    The U.S. is capable of shooting down any missile launched by NK at Japan, Guam, or the U.S. mainland, Hawaii, or Alaska. So I don’t see any viable blackmail threat there. I don’t think NK would be foolish enough to try and hit SK with a nuke, as the nuclear fallout would be too close to home for NK. Not to mention too close to China and to Russia as well. Just common sense.

    The more serious and long-term danger of a nuke detonating anywhere, is to the entire planet and the radiation that would be scattered literally to all parts of the globe. There is still plenty of radiation in the atmosphere from Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Increasing the level of radiation in the atmosphere is the most serious threat that should concern us.

  23. JK1987 says:

    GOLD
    GOLD price pattern and cycle is predicting – no war of any kind.
    once [B] wave completes its course (already done or very very soon), multi-year massive [C] wave will take GOLD to a low price that no gold bug can imaging now. first down to 1210 for 1 of [C] wave, retrace up 61.8%, then spiral down much below 1000.
    i do not hate gold or trading gold, just discover the path for GOLD with very high probability.

    market
    it’s better for market to turn green at the open or shortly after the open on Tuesday.
    gap take no prisoners, must be filled, the sooner the better, as there is a wall of worry – kiss and say goodbye.

    Korea
    sanctions could be the very wrong thing to do with NK.

    as NK is a suicidal nation leading by Kim Jong UN (with bipolar disorder)
    they are not begging for war, they want a war as pushed and pressured to the corner.
    they want a massive war to pull US, China, Japan into the water.
    but GOLD price is saying the war is not going to happen.

    “US envoy says North Korean leader ‘begging for war’ as UN mulls sanctions”
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/04/us-envoy-north-korean-leader-begging-for-war-as-un-mulls-sanctions.html

    suicide is a serious and widespread problem in both SK and NK.
    “South Korea’s problem with suicide has been well documented. But a World Health Organisation report has found that the problem is even worse in its northerly neighbour, making the peninsula one of the most suicidal regions in the world.”

    Suicide in South Korea is a serious and widespread problem, with the country having the second-highest suicide rate in the world according to the World Health Organization
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_in_South_Korea

    North Korea’s suicide rate among worst in world, says WHO report
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/04/north-korea-suicide-rate-among-worst-world-who-report

    sad
    how? N+S Korea became a suicidal nation after Japanese Occupation.
    Brutal Japanese Occupation of Korea since 1907
    “The Japanese colonialisation and brutal treatment of Koreans initiated a wave of nationalism.
    Mass execution of Korean partisans. Sometimes the killings were indiscriminate. Entire villages were wiped out for harboring the partisans. Neighboring villagers, town dwellers etc were made to watch this grotesque display of death and power by the Japanese colonial government.”
    http://www.twcenter.net/forums/showthread.php?36506-Brutal-Japanese-Occupation-of-Korea

    poor Korean!

    • Take an Islamic suicide bomber and multiply it by a (possibly)mentally ill dictator of a country with nukes.If the mindset of the nutjob is the same for both scenarios,would either one care about mass destruction of the planet–either by hydrogen bomb or EMP?What would Hitler have done with a nuke?Used it in a second.So the markets will whistle pass the graveyard–and expect nothing illogical,but you can’t take for granted Un is NOT a suicide bomber–and wants lots of misery if he can’t have his way,or feels he is about to be overthrown.If the worst happens,there won’t be a market to worry about anyways,so the markets continue up.We all hope the market is correct,but Trump said early in the year,”Fixing NK may get a little messy.”Make your own interpretation there.

      • mcgcapital says:

        Lol.. if I looked like him I’d want to kill myself too.. he’s one ugly fat f’er

      • JK1987 says:

        i am scratching my head, something gotta give for this fall with the magnitude of fall 2008.
        if it’s not the war (hinted by gold price pattern), it gotta be from inside.
        fall 2008 was from inside, and gold/miners went down with stocks.
        what could it be? default? tax cuts failure? harvey cost 180 billion, and here comes cat4 Irma. a black swan is not an usual animal can be seen by anybody. we won’t know until it comes. who knew Lehman was coming at that time?
        i have no idea what would come, but from the pattern and cycle, it has to come.
        s&p upside potential is what 1~3%, risk is 40%+
        i am also wondering if gold, bond are not safe heaven and down with stock, what would be the safe heaven?

        maybe following is a hint of something from the internal?

        “We must respect his authority and constitutional responsibilities. We must, where we can, cooperate with him. But we are not his subordinates. We don’t answer to him. We answer to the American people. We must be diligent in discharging our responsibility to serve as a check on his power.”

        In political terms, that’s a declaration of independence — one that could, over time, turn into a declaration of war.

        http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/02/opinions/mccain-signals-what-trump-is-up-against-opinion-louis/index.html

        btw, korean have different mind set than islamic.

      • torehund says:

        “Market goes all the way to heaven, and we are the passengers”


  24. From ATOZforex.com
    A bullish perspective of gold–unless CB action shoves it down below 1300.CBs tried last night,but didn’t succeed too well in their attempt.The “W” pattern goes to approximately 1380.GDX may get up to the 3 black crow resistance of 25.60 again (maybe).Then a moment of decision.It’s been a good weekend,not much eyeballing financial stuff…lol.Later.

  25. wanderer says:

    With the probability of a nuclear war growing, the S&P 500 futures are currently down just 0.25% from Friday’s close. Something ain’t right here. I am starting to build a short position.

    • ewmarkets says:

      I guess the market is saying the probability of a nuclear war is no more higher toady than it was last Friday. So North Korean has and will soon have nuclear weapons. Well, many countries have nuclear weapons. I guess the market is saying North Korean is no more likely to start a nuclear war than say Pakistan.

      • wanderer says:

        Sure, many countries have nuclear weapons. But none of them openly threaten to use these weapons against the U.S., except North Korea. We’ve always had a small chance of a catastrophic event (a nuclear war, that is), and in my assessment, that small chance became a little bigger. The current market doesn’t appear to reflect that condition, and to me it seems like a shorting opportunity.

        • ewmarkets says:

          Well, none of them have US Army, Air Force, Naval Forces, and Marine Forces stationed right at the edge of their border either or be the target of US’s regular full scale military exercises with South Korea, who I suppose Kim Jong-un believes wants to either overthrow him or overtake North Korea one day with US’s help.

          • wanderer says:

            Agreed. After being invaded by Mongols, Chinese, Japanese, and most recently Americans, North Korean regime feels that the priority is to protect the country from the next invasion.

  26. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

  27. vipulm555 says:

    Even if there was a war , nuke thrown, sanction placed on China.

    World index including china will move higher, we have unprecedented bull. Don’t fight it ride with it

    SmartZ

    • mcgcapital says:

      That’s just deluded to be honest.. fundamentals matter and a black swan type event would change the long term trend. The reason it’s a bull market is because the economy is growing and earnings are growing.. either of the things you mention are big enough to significantly reduce global growth with the uncertainty

    • mjtplayer says:

      If a nuclear weapon was used against another country, regardless of who, markets would crash with uncertainty as to what happens next. Spinning something like that as bullish is not only retarded but outright ridiculous.

      Please don’t ever joke about any country using a nuclear weapon on another, it doesn’t get any more serious and one should never wish for such a thing.

    • stcoleridge says:

      Beyond ridiculous.

  28. North Korea has an established reputation for protecting China’s strategic interests through, effectively, committing nuclear blackmail. No talk of the currency, trade or its militarization of small islands and shoals.

    But the most recent nuclear test, which came minutes before was Xi was to begin hosting a carefully planned meeting of BRIC countries, is no coincidence. Kim has embarrassed Xi on other occasions, suggesting the dynamics between NOKO and China are changing.

    NOKO is reminding China it will not go down easily and its not in China’long term interests to see a unified peninsula or 25 million refugees streaming across its borders. Checkmate

    With all of this in mind, the question must be asked what then is NOKO’s end game. The failing NYT ran an excellent piece on this question and I have highlighted several key passages below.

    It’s entirely possible NOKO aspires to use its experience in nuclear blackmail to serve its own interests and enrich the family business.

    “The conventional wisdom has always been that Mr. Kim, like his father and grandfather before him, is mostly motivated by a deep desire to preserve the family business — a small country that is an improbable, walled-off survivor of Cold War.

    Mr. Kim’s real goal may be blackmail, they argue — the sort that would be possible as soon as North Korea can put Los Angeles or Chicago or New York at risk.”

  29. vivelaamo says:

    Were US futures even open today? The ig market on RUT has closed already.

  30. phil1247 says:

    straight up in extensions until 2464 fails
    no resistance above until 2464 is violated

    please read the entire sentence before making a comment about it

    possible retest at 2464 now
    resistance at 2472

    Tony. and all……….
    ..
    enjoy your holiday!
    time for burgers , dogs and pizza
    hasta!

    • fotis2 says:

      That ext has failed and now looking for short entry right?

    • Phil, for the record can you please define what needs to happen for you to consider a 61.8 “Bear below/Bull above” level to be “failed” or “violated”? Just curious since price touches the “Bear below/Bull above” levels all the time without seeming to change or alter the ongoing “extension” or “Traditional” support/resistance trend. Thanks.

  31. pooch77 says:

    Up almost 7 points

  32. stcoleridge says:

    RUT futures up 4 points from Friday”s cash close.

  33. pooch77 says:

    Lol small caps only futures green world wide

  34. phil1247 says:

    http://40yearcycle.com/pages/new-golden-age/

    eric hadik……
    i call him Mr. Gold….
    . following him for 15 yrs
    predicted the massive runup in gold to 1900 many years in advance
    gave mid 2011 as the peak at least 3 years in advance
    predicted 4 to 5 year bear market would occur as gold bugs were euphoric at 1900
    said 2016 would be the “golden year” …meaning that
    the initial rally out of the low would take hold….
    you can read the rest …
    his chart produced in jan 2017 looks dead on with up arrow now
    i am no longer a trader in gold
    i am an investor

    • scottycj1 says:

      He was also very adamant with one of his incredibly “Uncanny” cycles the stock market would peak in November of 2014…….NEVER Happened.

      • phil1247 says:

        scotty

        …. thats why i call him Mr Gold …….

        not Mr Stock…
        or Mr Bond……………….James Bond 🙂

      • aahmichael says:

        From 11/14 to 11/16, the market went sideways to down. ES was lower on 11/08/16 than it was at its high in 11/14.

        • aahmichael says:

          Also, transports topped in 11/14 and went straight down for the next 14 months.

        • fionamargaret says:

          …and last Wednesday morning Phil must have forgotten his Guru, as he said gold had to go above a certain line to get him back in….

          Me, I am the person who brought you buy gold at 116, S&P going to 2185 (when it was at its lows and Phil was calling lower), going to be war (before Trump), a depression, the winner of The Kentucky Derby (not just this year), but 1,2 and 3 (in order) last year….and there is much more…..so if you like calls that are not muddled, that mix “seeing” with patterns you can actually count on for more than 1 hour….nah, you don’t like the music (which actually gets me to the place where I can make the calls).
          Did memorizing my music scores give me the ability to memorize numbers and patterns, I don’t know……and I don’t know, but don’t think this possible war is the one I see…..
          Yes, I can find missing children, can read minds….but that has all been done before, and has nothing to do with the market.

          • aahmichael says:

            While most people on this blog are obsessed with market calls and price targets, and you have certainly made some good ones, I find these types of predictions completely unnecessary. In my opinion, successful trading/investing over the long haul comes down to a good process, good math, emotional control, and discipline. Nothing else is needed. I do agree that music and the market are one and the same, though. Looking at a transcription of a John Coltrane solo is pretty much the same thing as counting waves on a one minute chart.

            • fionamargaret says:

              …and this is why I missed you so…you understand the composition.
              Now all we have to worry about is what war I see if it is not this….

            • fotis2 says:

              Agree one can be wrong 80% of the time and still make money or be right 80% of the time and blow his/her account.”It was never my thinking that made the big money for me ,it always was my sitting”Jesse Livermore.

  35. phil1247 says:

    https://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/

    always a good read from urban carmel

    • mjtplayer says:

      The only issue I have is that the yield curve inversion argument and economic indicator is unreliable today. Since the great recession, no market has been more manipulated than gov’t debt, thanks to global CB’s short-term artificially-low rate policies and QE policies attempting to suppress rates on the long-end.

      Short-term rates at 1% – 1.25% are still artificially low, making inversion almost impossible. In Europe it’s even worse, short-term rates are negative!!

  36. torehund says:

    No radiator detected post NK “nuke”. All jumped the gun, fake news. No investigative journalism, just rumours, loose assumptions left. Or yellow journalism creating a dangerous environment.

  37. jobjas says:

    Bitcoin correction continues -already dropped $750 !

  38. JK1987 says:

    GOLD is a kind of small cap, correlation:
    https://gyazo.com/b3bd47dbdad10abf4cd28788355e1417

    0901 2017 GOLD rut correlation

    GOLD next short term target ~1210
    i am not trading GOLD, own tza

  39. gary61b says:

    ES, with this pb if it stays above 60 looks to be maybe w4 with w5 to come, if 1=5 (2492). If 2460 doesn’t hold possible C starting.

  40. scottycj1 says:

    NK only needs to make a mistake and their country will be a burned out cinder. China announced to the world that if NK takes the first step of aggression…….china will not back them. Game over.
    As usual the USA stance has almost always been …..dont fire until fired upon…..if NK shoots first
    it’s over. They know it….so unless he really has a death wish they wont do anything. If he really is crazy and takes the first shot….say good bye to NK. Brilliant tactic by the Chinese…Bravo !

  41. pooch77 says:

    So how about those Indians, 11in a row!!!

  42. The US and China are involved in a chess match involving China applying pressure on NOKO to scale back its nuclear provocations with the stakes being sanctions, increased tariffs and a possible freeze in trade. At the same time, China is involved in another match with the mercurial Kim Jong UN over the same issue but with different stakes. China could easily cripple NOKO if it wished to through any number of tools including curtailing shipment of crude oil through an aging pipeline. But, and this is a big but, as Foreign Policy observes the last thing China wants is a destabilized NOKO.

    Without Chinese oil, “North Korea would not survive on its own for three months and everything in North Korea would be paralysed,” Cho Bong-hyun, a specialist on the North Korean economy at Seoul’s IB Bank, told Reuters in April.

    The United States might hope to bring Pyongyang to its knees, but for China that would be a nightmare scenario. The last thing Beijing wants is a destabilized nuclear-armed North Korea and millions of destitute refugees pouring over its northern border.

    Still, temporary cuts to fuel exports is one way for Beijing to send a clear message to its neighbor. Longer term, the only means of addressing the problem is though highly covert operations aimed at eliminating Kim. Some of the CIA types say it can be done while others say Kim has too many layers of protection in a highly secretive state.

    • tony caldaro says:

      With UN in charge NK is already destabilized
      The whole country only has 25M people
      Start cutting the energy supply

      • JK1987 says:

        oil embargo from China is a good idea, kill two birds with one stone.
        it’s an act of declaration of war between China and NK
        NK and China nuke each other. US not involved.
        It’s a win-win for US and Japan.
        if that’s the case, we have 3 of 3 of 3 of P III, parabolic move as most of bulls here suggested on Friday (with 1-2-i-ii-1-2 of P III completed).
        if that’s the case, i have to re-consider my short position on rut (3 wave up at 61.8%), and newly opened tech short position on last Friday morning – currently i have no stop for either position.
        will it happen? it will if both of them are stupid.

        • cmucha68 says:

          Nuklear war between China and NK and a win win Situation ?? How damn crazy are you man ??

          • JK1987 says:

            Trump pledges to put “America First,”

            from Trump:
            “If there’s going to be a war to stop [Kim Jong Un], it will be over there. If thousands die, they’re going to die over there. They’re not going to die here.”

            Trump is having economy war with china (from Bannon).
            Trump is having “talking” war with NK.
            ==> Trump do not like either of China or NK.

            you got it wrong, i do not hope for nuke between China and Korea.
            3 of 3 of 3 of P III is for those bulls.

          • JK1987 says:

            the following so called “expert” is promoting “China should stop exporting crude oil to North Korea”
            that effectively is developing a war between NK and China. NK would re-direct its missile toward beijing

            https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/04/hit-oil-exports-to-north-korea-after-nuclear-test-as-sanctions-wont-work-immediately-experts.html

            its’s funny, NK called Kim Un “smartz” in their language
            so when you name yourself as smartz, …

          • JK1987 says:

            trump wanting “fire and fury”
            trump Boasted He’s Made Our Nuclear Weapons Stronger.
            you should ask how damn crazy is trump!

        • mcgcapital says:

          If any nukes are actually fired anywhere, we will begin a third of a third or whatever you want to call it to the downside. Of that there is no doubt whatsoever

          • This is my great fear. Somehow we have a defense establishment that thinks such things can be “won”, “limited”, “contained”. No such chance. No winners here.

            Like the Iraq fiasco, somebody behind the scenes usually has $s on their mind. Big bomb-making dollars.

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