Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then rebound, DOW +57

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.7%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.1%. US index futures were much lower overnight, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported slightly higher. The market gapped down to SPX 2428 at the open. It had closed at SPX 2444 yesterday. Right after the open the market started to rebound. At 10am consumer confidence was reported higher. The market continued to rally into the afternoon, with only a 4-point pullback, until it hit SPX 2449 at 3:30. Then it dipped to end the day at SPX 2446.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.35%. Bonds gained 8 ticks, Crude slipped 20 cents, Gold dropped $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2444 and 2428 pivots, with resistance at the 2456 and 2479 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP at 8:15, then the Q2 GDP (est. 2.8%) update at 8:30.

The market closed at the OEW 2444 pivot yesterday, then opened at the 2428 pivot today, only to rebound back to the 2444 pivot by early-afternoon. Since the SPX 2491 ATH fifteen trading days ago, the market has had 8 gap openings. Quite a choppy day-traders month. The market sold off after hours yesterday, after N.K. shot a long-range missile over Japan. The selling appeared to be related not so much to N.K.’s action, but how the US would respond to this most recent daring provocation. Keep in mind, if N.K. attacks anyone first they are on their own. If the US attacks first, N.K. has China’s support. When the US took no action, traders appeared relieved and the market rebounded. Only mention this because it is obviously going to have a continuing impact on the markets. The short term waves continue to display the three weeks choppiness. Three waves down to SPX 2417, three waves up to SPX 2454, now a wave down to 2428 with another reversal up. Short term support is at the 2444 and 2428 pivots, with resistance at the 2456 and 2479 pivots. Short term momentum rebounded from slightly oversold this morning to slightly overbought in the afternoon. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probably underway

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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141 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. Bud Fox says:

    Ref. recent,North Korea action….maybe a strong reason for
    much more military activity, on the Korean Pen….something,
    I think that is not melted into the SP500, as yet. Risk, IMO. is that
    “longs” get killed and “short sellers” come out on top, in the near term.
    In My Opinion…


  2. JK1987 says:

    Mary, follow Tony’s primary count, you’ll be fine.

    we went through the cycle, verified 100 years. top and bottom both are good.
    count on it.

    imho, your Nasdaq chart has a subtle “miss” (you can check the last time i commented on Nasdaq, still apply).
    it’s the same miss as scotty did, and i already pointed out his mistake at spx 2455. scotty’s chart is wrong either last time or this time (even though he did not show what MA’s are, but could easily verify it’s wrong at least by one past case).


  3. H D says:

    Nice pivot Tony. 2428! Enough said. From failed moves come fast moves. Last week’s rally was 38 points. Bumping .618 back with some confluence/ symmetry above 2462/66. Need more data to rule this out as B up from 2417. EOM window dressing until proven otherwise. Either way summer doldrums are over. Ready for the range to expand.

    Have a great Holiday.


    • aahmichael says:

      I see it as an 8 day B wave rally that followed an 8 day A wave decline. The B wave rally also mirrors the 8 day decline that occurred from 6/19-6/29. Put it all together, and it forms a H&S. As you said, “until proven otherwise.”


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