Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go, DOW +196

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and market gapped up to SPX 2436 at the open. The market had closed at SPX 2428 yesterday. Right after the open the market did not hesitate to move even higher. In fact, it continued to rise, with 2-point pullbacks along the way, to SPX 2455 in the last hour of trading. Then a dip at the close ended the day at SPX 2453.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.95%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.40%. Bonds dropped 9 ticks, Crude rose 30 cents, Gold slid $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2456 and 2479 pivots. Tomorrow: new home sales at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open for the first time since last Monday. That day the market gained 27-points and closed near the highs. For the next couple the days the market then struggled to make higher highs, even though opening higher on both days. Then the recent selloff kicked in. Today the market gapped up and gained 27-points and also closed near the highs. Deja vous? We continue to observe three waves down from SPX 2491: 2438-2475-2417, and now a counter rally to 2455. Despite the strong day, thinking the 2456 pivot range should hold this advance, as noted in the weekend update, with possibly a short term negative divergence at the highs. Short term support is at the 2444 and 2428 pivots, with resistance at the 2456 and 2479 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought as the highs. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probably underway

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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167 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. JK1987 says:

    imho, like in the movie, Gladiator
    “whatever come out of the gate (the market). we stay together (help each other), we survive”.

    the market won’t listen to my or your request or wishes or opinion. only as we stay together, we survive, and possibly to beat the market.
    using emotional words, name calling really is unnecessary.
    it’s internet. you don’t know him, and he does not know you. control the emotion and stay together will be the only chance to survive the market. even that, still not easy.

  2. vivelaamo says:

    Newbie and Travis are the same person! They not lovers after all. My bad.

  3. Bud Fox says:

    at the moment — this is one chart, I like. In addition to the OEW chart lists.
    http://stockcharts.com/public/1001240/chartbook/212688608;

  4. scottycj1 says:

    Another Newbie “Bloodbath”…..NOT
    And now we have the fruitcake……. JK
    This place is an asylum….

    Bye

  5. JK1987 says:

    tomorrow,
    you know, there is a gap from yesterday, lots trapped.
    Lord is mercy.
    one possibility is to give them one last chance to exit the door.
    if this happen, should be higher along the bk tl I posted earlier for all indices.

    what’s important is the day after tomorrow, and next Monday.

    “I am in deep distress. Let us fall into the hands of the LORD, for his mercy is great; but do not let me fall into human hands.” Samuel 24:14

    • fotis2 says:

      JK no offense as I am religious myself but I think this is hardly the place to quote from the bible brother.

      • JK1987 says:

        fotis, understood, just like to honor to whom should I honor too.
        look, what human hands can do to harm the climate, economy, and all. look, the T tower destroyed under water, flag frozen.
        if we build the wall, one day we can not cross the border to become refugees of Mexico.
        everything has two sides, should not go straight one way. looks like he still is under the influence of manic episode.

        how much have we rise from 2016 low, or 2008 low?
        don’t let the greed gets you, be fearful what’s coming of this fear and greed game.
        enuf said.

        hasta la vista

        • vivelaamo says:

          JK I like your posts but don’t tell me you’re another world is going to end nutcase like Newbie and his groupie Travis?

          • JK1987 says:

            vive, long term I am bullish. only thing, imho, is P2 has not completed yet. spx 1810 is wave A, 2491 is wave B, here comes wave C. the economic after P2 is a weak recovery.
            what is wave B, it’s a fake wave, not a true rise wave, a deceiving wave, both stock & economy.

            my target is spx 1800, and rut 840. is that end of world?
            then P3 bull market rise again to higher and higher.
            here is my play, vix original got to 172 at that time. here I see vix only 100.
            0818 2017 indu hundredfold return vs 1987 post

            too many posts, not good for me, really have to go.

            • vivelaamo says:

              It would feel like the end of the world. I can’t see your posts. They coming up blank on iPhone. All the best.

              • fionamargaret says:

                Viv…blank on my I-book too…

                Bloomberg interviewed a couple of PM guys this afternoon…basically agreed and said the gold stocks were really lagging compared to the metal….

          • NEWBIE says:

            Vivgina, thanks for the compliment.

          • travis01 says:

            I thought it upset you to post on one another’s posts you lil twirp. Tell ya what, let’s each put $10k in an account, trade for a month, and winner takes all. You are all noise kid

            • vivelaamo says:

              I talked about you not to you. You’re a big shot yeh? If there was anyway to do that challenge I would for a laugh. You and your bf Newbie are comical value on this blog. Keep it up.

        • Bud Fox says:

          he does make a good point – but refugees of Mexico, Yep,
          that comment is a stretch….

  6. fionamargaret says:

    UWT.up to 18.5, and ERX (the oil stocks) are at a 52 week low and at the base of my pattern…up…
    If you are a believer, well done.x so far, so good.
    UGAZ, UGLD, USLV, NUGT, JNUG, TMF to 25.

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=uwt,PWTADANRBO%5BP%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!3!!!2!20%5D

  7. vivelaamo says:

    While all eyes have been on stock indices the pound has been getting hammered. Still above the 200 daily though. Anyone see a potential long position coming up in cable?

    • mcgcapital says:

      Hitting what looks to be a trendline on the weekly chart, getting oversold on the daily too. Would expect the drop to stop this side of $1.26 which is the 50% retrace off the low (ignoring the flash crash). Would be a buyer if it can start rallying. I’m bullish on it fundamentally as don’t think Brexit will be a big deal

      • vivelaamo says:

        Agree. Might wait for daily stochs to cross and maybe a higher low before going long. Agree fundemantly pound will be fine. Rates will go up to 0.5 sooner rather than later. Liberal media love spooking the masses with Brexit disaster talk.

  8. Anyone count 3 waves up to yesterday, Wave 4 down today and maybe 5 up to 2455. I sold my short at the open. Anytime market gives me 10 free point, I take it. Looking to reshort. ,

    • gary61b says:

      Yes in ES and spx, as my yesterday post 2452.75 as a top of 3 or C was a little short. Wave 4 deeper than 2. From 2439 ES up for 5, I see a little north of 2455. Though price seems slow and sluggish.

  9. bfquant says:

    How do you guys attach images? Does it have to come from your own WordPress link?

    • you need to have a link to your image..last time I did it I uploaded my image to imgur.com whcich will assign a link to your image. paste that image address into your comment as an active link and your image will be shown along with your comment
      for example : here is a link i copied from imgur “http://i.imgur.com/cI0AP4l.jpg”

      • note above you see link in quotes and the iomage – the link in quotes does nothing as this is not active link..my comment test also included link address without the quotes which is an active link–you see the image for this and not the text of the active link

  10. Last night I was going to post the most important Ira comment from his daily review,but got slightly detoured.IWM stochastic,which was bearishly embedded,could have a rally to 139 if it loses the reading.Lost it today,but needs a follow through–up.A falling back into a 1/2 to 1% drop today would re strengthen the downward momentum.That’s it from here.Later.

  11. phil1247 says:

    CL

    da boyze have you handcuffed in a triangle just before the news release

    would you expect anything else from our best friends ?

    see ya !

  12. JK1987 says:

    does anyone in this room like Gann?
    Not the fake Gann

    primary count.
    initial target 2185, overlaps the first wave up from 2016’s 1810
    anyone know what’s the impact of this – 3 waves up from 2016’s 1810?
    any believer?

    Gann@realGann
    0822 2017 Gann timing top downside target

    • JK1987 says:

      one of the example at the Gann August timing top, see what happened?
      historica indu 1937 back test

    • H D says:

      I’m a lifelong learner so let’s revisit how awesome it is in a few weeks…. Might work for you long term guys.

      • JK1987 says:

        this is what happened to yesterday’s mother nature big squeeze (longs taking money away from shorts, no complain?)
        0822 2017 spx indu compq rut back tested

        there is another history example. but now it’s too thrill to show here. like NEWBIE said …

        • H D says:

          Very nice. TL analysis isn’t exclusive to Gann though and I actually prefer Nealy method for TL’s.

          • JK1987 says:

            like JK said:
            JK1987 says:
            August 21, 2017 at 12:52 am
            interesting moment.
            the process usually is – break down, back test, then continue down, targeting the wildest range from the neckline.

            neither Gann or Nealy are my teacher.
            Tony and oew is my teacher.
            learning from the best teacher, highly recommended.
            https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/06/03/oew-tutoring-117/

            • H D says:

              cool. and nothing personal I just have a hard time with a lot of the comments. I thought you were saying Gann is 2700+ and now you are saying TL continue down.

              Up days are up and down days are down. It’s all cryptic hindsight to me.

              Again , that is just my take. GL

              • JK1987 says:

                well, did you see.
                even the image has Gone with the Wind.
                it was a sarcastic message to that so called Gann expert.
                ” JK1987 says:
                August 23, 2017 at 12:23 am
                the devil in the details can you see?
                this is the alternate count, meaning 0.000000000000000000000000000000001 probability.
                and it’s only for that one smartz (they are the same monopoly money person).
                preferred and primary count, you know, the oew count.”

                Gann is dead, how can a dead man be my teacher and teaching me?
                I am a student of the best 🙂
                so much lessons in oew, and live teaching.

                btw, HD, don’t know if you remember or not, I saw your comments about leading diagonal during this March. believe or not, it will come true this time. 🙂

    • hooloo1957 says:

      Jk, you mentioned a book about gann a couple days ago. What was it again? Thank you

  13. phil1247 says:

    /ZB … TLT

    BONDS

    targets about to be hit less than a point above here
    ready to take profits on bonds on spike up to target

  14. phil1247 says:

    mjt

    sold FXE into premarket spike
    EURO top could be in
    cant rule out a …..

    pop the top before we flop
    scenario
    like i mentioned on ES that worked out nicely

    got EUO ?

  15. fotis2 says:

    Bulls not your fault Market going down its this guy..

    investing.com/news/stock-market-news
    Trumps-comments-dents-us-stock-futures…

  16. aahmichael says:

    Since this blog went political last night, I’ll leave you with this:

    “My favorite Civil War era monuments are the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments.”
    David Tanenhaus‏

    • fotis2 says:

      Tx and hopefully yours will be the last political comment on this trading blog.

    • fenster6 says:

      + 100

      Most here probably will have to look them up I suspect. They are so wrapped up in meaningless pieces of stone that they forget the real principles that the war was fought over. 620,000 died, nearly 2% of the population so that others could live as humans and not animals. They died for freedom not statues.

      Now back to trading.

  17. vipulm555 says:

    Smartz, trailing stop is going to hit.
    Month end is generally bullish, since value buying will happen. Market is down and very good time to buy.

  18. phil1247 says:

    ES

    extension long violated
    resistance is confirmed at 2461

    target………………………. 2398 .5

    • travis01 says:

      Phil, you’ve been dead on lately. Congrats. Tony’s pivots been working well last several weeks for the most part. Went long to 2444 range, out for confirmation, short at 2452 (2456 pivot range). Let’s see from here. Nice scalp setups both ways.

  19. Liking my short from yesterday’s close. Looking for 2400-2405 see what happens

  20. phil1247 says:

    My Mama always said you’ve got to put the past behind you before you can move on.” – Forrest

    • Sethu N says:

      Here you go guys. I have uploaded with success both the hour and day charts. Hour is not actual Index it is TFD. I dont have the actual SPX hour Index numbers. Observe the HISTO carefully .One can see how beautifully it is giving long and short entry.

      Fortis,
      Thanks. But Investing.com numbers are not good. I have found so many errors. So, I never use them for charting.

  21. Sethu N says:

    Hi Guys,
    I dont do too much complicated stuff. My system is based on Price only. I have attached the charts which shows clearly the support and resistance on day time frame basis. So, you have resistance @ 2465 and support @ 2430. Any day close above or below these levels will take Index higher or lower. I have not produced here my histogram which turned green on yesterday’s close. I could have done this on hourly time frame also but unfortunately I dont have hourly SPX data. I use this on Nifty ( Indian Index) and it works very well.

  22. Jimmy Porter says:

    Tony,
    Thank you for your thoughts. I am more bullish than you but I would hate to be on the bearish side right now. It’s going to be one more in the bears face before they finally get their chance.
    Also, thank you to fenster and a couple others reminding me why I stopped looking past your updates. Millenials. They just don’t make any sense and don’t think for themselves. It’s sad to witness. I am glad they changed my generation to the y generation because I was embarrassed to be called one.

  23. fenster6 says:

    People are not mad at statues poster below.

    They are mad of seeing statues of generals and statesmen who killed fellow Americans so that other Americans could be branded, shackled and raped.

    Does Germany allow statues of Nazi era Generals or Henchman?

    What happened to statues of Lenin and Stalin when communism died in Russia…crash….and Iraq when Saddam was kicked out… crash…

    Statues represent something, they are not just innocent blocks of history.Good riddance.

    • The people in power (or who think they’re in power)wipe out the statues first,then they usually proceed to start wiping out people next.In all actuality, very few people have earned the right to have a statue built of them—I can’t name ANY,in fact.If all people are supposedly equal,these remembrances of people from 200 years ago are just as valid as any others from any other time.It all depends on who has the power.If it was that big a deal,why didn’t Obama speak up about it and lead a movement against it in HIS 2 terms?Because Democrats didn’t care then and the only reason it’s relevant to them now,is they’re STILL pi**ed off that they lost.If they had won,Clinton would have posed next to every Confederate statue she could–if it got votes.That’s all there is to this statue “controversy.”

      • fenster6 says:

        People have been trying to remove the confederate monuments for decades. Some states houses even flew the confederate flag until recently.

        this is not new. Maybe it is new to you, but if you do a simple google search, you will find that people have been trying to remove flags and statues that represent the Slave-owning South for many years.

        There are a lot of things that are part of the heritage of the country. Even Serial killers like Jeffrey Dalmer, or Charles Manson are well known are part of folk lore, they killed less Americans that some of the confederate politicians Should they have statues too?

        • Jimmy Porter says:

          HERE’S A THOUGHT FENSTER. KEEP YOUR POLITICAL POINT OF VIEWS TO YOURSELF OR PUT THEM ON FACEBOOK. IT SURE WOULD BE NICE TO HAVE A WEBSITE THAT IS ABOUT THE MARKET NOT SOME IDIOTS VIEW. I AM SURE TONY HAS POSTED MANY TIMES THIS ISN’T THE PLACE FOR POLITICS. STFU

        • Lee X says:

          That last paragraph is perhaps the most idiotic thing I’ve ever read here.

          Get a drink of water and go to bed.

        • If you watch the news,there are memorials and commemorations to every kind of event that has taken place.How many times do you hear,”It’s the 20th anniversary of the tornado that hit”,Hurricane Katrina,9/11–just to name a few horrible things.Many events both good and bad are remembered.I suppose a statue of Robert E Lee could be looked at multiple ways,by many different people–with differing viewpoints.To destroy it takes away the thought process of why he was there in the first place.Instead of thinking,it’s easier for some to destroy.That takes no thinking.

        • fenster6: A few people have been trying to remove Confederate statues for a long time, but the current hysteria is based on leftist political exploitation of events. The statues removed in formerly totalitarian countries were primarily “cult of personality statues” of heinous individual dictators, while the Rebel statues are more broadly based representations, although Robert E Lee is probably the most common one. Robert E Lee never held the kind of power that Stalin, Hitler, or Hussein held nor did he personally order mass atrocities like the above rulers did.
          So Learned is essentially correct in his main point.

          • Kisshu2 says:

            #wrong #sad
            Lee’s elevation is a key part of a 150-year-old propaganda campaign designed to erase slavery as the cause of the war and whitewash the Confederate cause as a noble one. That ideology is known as the Lost Cause, and as historian David Blight writes, it provided a “foundation on which Southerners built the Jim Crow system.”

    • fotis2 says:

      Why are you doing this? Is English not you 1st language?Tony has politely asked many times to post only market related comments.

      • Jimmy Porter says:

        To be honest they may not. Did you know most don’t even know how to read cursive because they aren’t taught it anymore.

        • vivelaamo says:

          Sorry to continue the discussion but isn’t it an option to put these statues in to museums rather than just remove them. That way they remain a part of American history rather than representive or something that may offend.

    • pintopower says:

      I agree with you fenster that they represent something, but it is possible that, as symbols, they represent different things to different people. To me, they are not symbols of nazi’s, communists or even symbols of slavery. They are symbols of resistance to tyranny. The civil war generation is only the second generation of Americans to take up arms against their government to oppose what THEY thought was tyranny and to protect their liberty. I concede that they were not concerned about everyone’s freedom – just the freedom of white men. Nonetheless, they had the testicular fortitude to actually take up arms and resist the government. Since then our government has taken over 80% of a person’s income (and now take over 50% for some) and the American people just accept it.

      Why would those who want to start a new world order want to remove these statutes? Because when the globalists try to incorporate America into their global schemes they don’t want the American people to remember these courageous Americans who fought for THEiR liberty. So any symbol of resistance to tyranny has to be removed from America so the globalists can takeover. I wouldn’t be surprised if we start removing generals and others from Revolutionary War era next – after all they were slave owners too, right?

      So the removal of these symbols of resistance from the American landscape will separate the people from their tradition of resistance to oppressive government. Without knowing this tradition (or worse viewing the tradition in a poor light as you have done), the American people will be more willing to accept whatever our new overlords have in mind for us.
      It is like removing the foundation of a house, the result will be the house collapses. It is the same process when radical Islam takes over a new area, they tear down existing statutes (e.g.budda) to separate the people from their tradition so that they will accept the new paradigm (i.e. Islam).

      The people who want to keep the statutes are not mean, wicked people. We just view the symbols differently from you and want to preserve them because they serve as part of the foundation upon which this country was built. As any homeowner knows, their might be some issues with a foundation of a house that we are not happy with, but it is better than having no foundation at all.

  24. Vishal says:

    2490.87 – 2417.35 — draw it up
    50% retrace – 2454
    61.8% – 2463
    -23.6% target is exact 2400…

  25. stormchaser80llc says:

    I go on holiday tomorrow 8/23 so any post tomorrow will be short due to travel (or just an e-mail). I still expect to fulfill the remaining posts through my trip.

    Decided to go short via SPX Oct Puts near today’s close. Looks like I got in too early, but suspect that this downturn is not complete. All my 401k remains in interest cash accounts.

    My proprietary Technicals Model jumped today, something that I based my shorts on before seeing today’s reading. It had previously wiped out forming positive divergence vs. SPX a couple days ago, so I think there is more time in this pullback/downdraft. My model now has been lower 12 out of the past 13 trading days. SPX McClellan was lower again today for the 17th out of the last 18 trading days, but does maintain its positive divergence.

    SPX had a run up today that I called for yesterday (8/21). It does not look complete as the SPX hourly chart lacked negative divergences, and VIX lacked significant positive divergences.

    All Summer I have been warning on the lead-up to the new SPX All Time High that a major top was coming. This was based on my proprietary Technicals Model which had been negatively diverging at times since mid April, and about 10 pre-top Hindenburg Omens. Also wrote about the historically narrow SPX Daily Bollinger Bands (going back to 1970) and very low readings coming from my statistically driven Volatility Model. Low volatility like this can proceed large moves. Then came a sweet SPX reversal candle on August 8th.

    3 Hindenburg Omens on the SPX last week. Read more about it under the Techniques menu at the top of my website. But just as a refresher, they mainly come before major tops, can occur during significant downdrafts and rarely do trigger at important bottoms. I am classifying the 5 that came after SPX ATH as the second category.

    Did you get to enjoy the total solar eclipse on August 21st? Well there was also a Black Moon on 8/21 (third New Moon in a season with four New Moons). Read about Puetz Crash Windows under the Techniques menu at the top of my website. It doesn’t say a crash must occur in these conditions, just that the more significant ones tend to across all markets. The previous FULL moon was on 8/7 which was 1 day before the SPX ATH, and the next one is Sept 6th.

    Both my swing trading signals remain BEARISH (since 7/28 and 7/31). Internals were improved today, but remember they are maintaining a downward trend yet, but yes, some are coming off their bottoms. Participation was higher for all indicies. SPX A-D line crossed above its descending 20 dma, remember it did not confirm the last SPX All Time High.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com) However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

    I want you to know I am quite serious about developing my site the right way, I am in this for the long haul, and I will improve my services at every opportunity I have. Traders this next part is for you! I recently uploaded a significant upgrade to the Trading Platform (see top menu of my site for the link). I offer 3 diverse models for the SPX AND the consensus of all 3 models, at time-periods of 1 min/5 min/10 min/15 min/30 min/1 hr and soon longer periods. No matter how frequently you like to trade, I will have you covered. I even have the ETF GLD (gold) available at the 1 min timeframe. These timeframes, available trading vehicles (why not oil, why not china etf?), and models will continue to expand over time! If you are an active trader, you will view my site as something more than just a daily analysis of the markets. I want traders to live here during market hours! I want us all to make money!

  26. jobjas says:

    SPX squiggle count projection

  27. JK1987 says:

    Gann timing bottom upside target: spx 2785
    0822 2017 Gann timing bottom upside target
    dancing bulls

  28. Mary773 says:

    Just thinking out loud here.

    Primary Wave 2490.87
    A 2437,75
    B 2474.93
    C 2417,35

    Using this scenario, A = 53.12, and C = 57.58.
    The Fibonacci projection from A to C = 1.384, which forms a textbook bullish ABC.
    C is approximately a 50% retracement from the May low and bottomed in an area that had previously produced lows at 2416, 2419, 2406, 2408, and 2413.
    SPX was at support and oversold and has now bounced hard.
    Maybe it is deja vu. Or maybe it is coup de gras. Dieu seul sait.

  29. mcgcapital says:

    It’s hilarious that some people think you can browse the comments section on here and gauge market sentiment. A couple of people have the audacity to go short and it’s ‘still too many bears’. Firstly, this isn’t a good sample of the people that matter. Money managers matter, and for the most part they’re looking to sell rallies for now. We don’t matter as we’re trading small size relatively. And there’s no conspiracy about the little guy being a contrarian indicator. The big players don’t sit there and say right let’s buy just to trap all the small accounts the wrong way. They do what’s right for themselves. Secondly, even if sentiment is pessimistic or optimistic it doesn’t really matter in the short run. It can stay engrained for a while. Just look at the last 18 months… up the best part of 40% and now it’s beginning to show a few cracks. I spent a year researching sentiment indicators in my last job before I quit to trade full time.. most don’t add any value and the ones that do only matter when they hit extreme values and even then the moves can be delayed. Just try plotting forward returns vs many of the indicators posted on here and you’ll see what I mean.. it’s just noise.

    When there is another bear market god knows how pessimistic we’ll all end up being if now is the height of pessimism!

    • Did I say I was basing that comment solely off this blog? No. But generally, I’ve seen more of the “experts” on twitter calling for a big selloff. I don’t think they’re wrong, I just think they’re early. You’re not going to get that big selloff until you flip the crowd back bullish, and to do that you need to rally above recent relative highs. The first relative high that could start to trap bulls is above 2475 (mid point of this developing W pattern). Then a new all-time high obviously. And these types of patterns are setup for fast moves up, which can feel awfully exuberant. This also has the added effect of squeezing shorts out. It really is as simple as getting everyone to one side of the boat so that you have the necessary fuel for a fast move. Imho.

    • scottycj1 says:

      Tonight you say ” Firstly, this isn’t a good sample of the people that matter.” “Money managers matter” Ok so you see how mini money manager MCG thinks of all of us, on this Forum.

      • mcgcapital says:

        I don’t matter either hence using the term ‘we’. None of us do. You can tell who the good traders are on here, they have a trading plan and they execute it with discipline. They also tend to trade both ways given that’s how the market moves. You just fire off emotional rubbish, either you’re ecstatic and obnoxious or you’re silent. I assume you’re still long from 2475 area given your moon signal and then from 2460s given last Wednesday was the last possible day to make a low. Then when the market was in freefall you’re telling everyone to go long when there was no support level to trade against. Just can’t see how you’re making money unless it goes up forever with minimal drawdowns. Sorry. I’m still short here, have a similar exit strategy to the one posted by tryingtomakeabuck below. If the market doesn’t go down from here I won’t complain, will just take a small loss and move on to the next trade set up. Doubt you can say the same if it doesn’t go your way

  30. lunker1 says:

    mid BB 2462 bull/bear line

  31. Just as I suspected still too many bears. Pain trade 101 is for another gap and go tomorrow. We’re not going to see another rapid decline until everyone flips to the other side of the boat. Still looking for a move to 2480 this week.

  32. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $RUT at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

    • kaapiee says:

      Thank you for sharing your work Bouraq! I am playing it as a look above and fail as the price pierced the previous support and closed back below now confirming resistance. On the intraday (5 min chart, there was also a retest of the high forming a cute double top). That will also coincide with the expected wave C in the other indices. Open will be the tell…

      • bfquant says:

        Kaapiee – More on that point. I think Bouraq’s orange topline gets touched but not before the lower one gets touched again. I noticed that “closed back below” action. I pay attention to traps like that.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Thanks Bouraq. Love your charts. Im looking at same trendline on RUT for next potential profit target.

      Which chart package do you use if you don’t mind me asking?

  33. I said yesterday, I see this in a down channel and expected today to hit 2453-2456. Could go to 2460 top of channel, but then down anything over 2463 would have me concerned. Would expect another 53 point decline from this level. 2400-2405 then another bounce and another 58 plus decline to end this move down the final leg could be a 1.618 so we should end up somewhere around 2320-2360
    I’m short with a stop at 2465

    My 2 cents anyway

    • mjtplayer says:

      Agree, above 2,463 or so would break a couple different trend-lines and retracement areas, but until then nothing has changed and it’s lower highs and lower lows since 8/8.

      Yesterday’s low of 2,017 might have been a temp low or we could still drop to test the 2,400 area before yet another bounce back to this 2,455-ish area. My vote is that this market will frustrate both the bulls and the bears over the next week and a half as we finish out the month into the Labor Day weekend with choppy action.

      The real drop comes in Sept, the past couple weeks has just been the warning shot….

  34. vipulm555 says:

    Smartz , buy the intraday PB
    Bull is on (pyramid)

  35. Page says:

    Just past weekend everybody was calling for recession and today everybody (ex newbie) is promising for rose garden. 😀

    Thanks Tony.

    • captbara says:

      Strange times we live in. Society may have already completed SC5 😔

      • torehund says:

        Maybe we are getting more honest, to ourselves, in politics and toward eachother. Has to be a rebound to all the political correctness reaching peak, then going in the honest direction. Calling a spade a spade, relinquish split and rule, just be yourself, intentions being straight forward. No play, just what we all intuitively think. Then humanity grows out of the sinkhole it is currently residing in. That will be good for economy too, and a feather in the hat for Trump. Why is common sens so outdated, bring it back to us 🙂

  36. usually up as we go into Labor day so take care as we head into next week

  37. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

  38. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks

    imho, Deja vous, indeed.
    we have twice lower high, here at 61.8% of previous lower high.
    double b with c to come?

    0822 2017 wave c

    • JK1987 says:

      0822 2017 wave c indu ndx
      not to mention my play of RUT

      • NEWBIE says:

        JK, you go !!! Wave C or wave 3 gonna seek and destroy from here.

        • vivelaamo says:

          Newbie for somebody that is always talking about being caught with pants down. Technically that pattern and a move down is probably the most obvious thing you can see on the charts. Where would be the surprise in that?

          Pretty much everyone will be expecting a move down with that setup. Think about it dude. At least be consistent with your views on the market surprising the majority.

            • vivelaamo says:

              What’s funny?

              • Swing says:

                Funny is, that you say it is the obvious move, everybody sees.
                And that is why it will not happen.

                So the surprise (at least for you and those that argue the same way) would be if it still happens, right?
                Market surprised with downmove, mission accomplished.
                Btw I guess more people expect new highs now than a lower low (without looking at the chart)

              • vivelaamo says:

                I didn’t say it will not happen. I’m just trying to understand why when technically it looks like we going up Newbie thinks everyone will be surprised and when technically it’s setup for us to go down everybody will be surprised. Anyway doubt I’ll get an answer. Have a good day all.

              • chrisk44342 says:

                or the surprise will be the market behaving in an obvious way? I hate to say it, but I have to favor newbie this time.

              • vivelaamo says:

                Ha that would be nice to see to be fair. Makes trading a lot easier!

              • travis01 says:

                The funny parts are 1) you telling someone else to be consistent and not flip flopping hourly and 2) you have no idea when the guy gets in or out of a trade. He likely is making big bets on a lquick trend and not always a straight bear. Maybe maybe not. I know guys who only play the downside a few times a year and so quite well. You get upset when someone blasts you but you poke fun of him 5x a day for what you perceive as his trades. I’d be willing to bet his haystack is a wee bit larger as well. Also, you have stated repeatedly that you are new to trading and trying to learn yet have a definite can’t-lose stance at every hour. So that’s funny…

              • vivelaamo says:

                I just asked him a legitimate question politely. What is your problem? Listen you don’t like me and I don’t like you. Lets just respectfully read each other’s comments and refrain from replying to each other. Is that fair?

      • vivelaamo says:

        Just remember similar set up in April-May.

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