Monday update

SHORT TERM: flat open choppy day, DOW +29

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were relatively unchanged, and the market opened unchanged at SPX 2426. Shortly after the open the market started to pullback. By 10:30 it had dropped below’s Friday’s low and hit SPX 2417. After that, with a positive divergence in tow, the market rallied to SPX 2431 by 12:30. A dip to SPX 2423 followed by 3pm. Then the market bounced to close at SPX 2428

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.05%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude dropped $1.05, Gold rose $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2411 and 2385 pivots, with resistance at the 2428 and 2444 pivots.

The market opened flat today, dropped to SPX 2417, rallied to 2431, then pulled back into the close. Not much of a rally, but not a whole lot of selling either. We fined tuned the waves during the Minor A decline (2454-2408) and found a corrective seven. Thus far, we are counting just three waves from the Minor B high at SPX 2491: 2438-2475-2417. Usually the C wave has the same number of waves in the A wave during these types of irregular complex corrections. Let’s see how this one unfolds. Short term support is at the 2411 and 2385 pivots, with resistance at the 2428 and 2444 pivots. Short term momentum rose to neutral after this morning’s positive divergence. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probably underway

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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163 Responses to Monday update

  1. Richard Glackin says:

    Now getting close to the end of the “first” wave 3 !

  2. So then, a 2456 close to leave OEW followers hanging?

    • In order to inflict max pain don’t we need to gap again and run? Seems like people are still trying to short this.

      • mcgcapital says:

        Most people on here are long only and are reliant on a continuing bull market so it’s a poor sentiment indicator. You can tell as on the down days they go quiet or sound more and more desperate if it doesn’t rally lol. This rebound so far is mostly expected by both bulls and bears, so no pain yet. Will probably just go sideways for a couple of days until Jackson hole but 2456 might hold it

        • vivelaamo says:

          That’s not fair mate. I been waiting for that hammer close to go long for days!

          • mcgcapital says:

            Nice trade mate, waited for set up and executed.. it’s obvious who I’m on about!

            • vivelaamo says:

              Thanks. I’ve always struggled in the past with impatience and over trading (standard rookie errors). A trade here and there when the setup is right is working well for me over the past month.

              Cheers for all of your posts. Some great eduction on here from those that trade for a living. This is a priceless blog.

  3. Just like clockwork…most bearish at the same time!

  4. NEWBIE says:

    Bloodbath starting tomorrow, who will be to blame? NK?

  5. micky says:

    hit vst 2nd line.. usually enough for now at least.

  6. phil1247 says:

    fotis ….

    i know you are chomping at the bit to short but……………..
    you know the drill..
    we dont know where resistance is yet
    and we wont know
    until the extension long fails ….
    patience grasshopper 🙂

    • vivelaamo says:

      I reckon he already short. He got the bounce he wanted. I’m long from 2433. Told you all MC hammer was in town. Hope you all listened to the Track and went long. You can’t touch this! 😀

      Goodnight all x

  7. torehund says:

    Bulls fighting back. Biotech has been testing support for very long now, might soon be time for it.

  8. well, what a wonderful bull day. just up and up. The Sunday drive is just about complet for me. Covering my long as of now and looking to short around 2455. absolute no pressure day. love it

  9. All major Indexes have bounced off the 50% retrace from the, at example ES 2345.12 to high. What that means is we are most probably in the fractioning of the wave 3, done at it is following: 1-2, I-II, and now we had 1-2 of the III done in perfect symmetry and starting 3 of III. That is confirmed by the ext. long so loved by popular Phil that has forgotten to take note that we were in daily ext long ancor 2345.12 that already played perfectly the high 2454.66 that has already completed at exactly again at 2489.76. Following the never-ending bearish considerations of the notable DH misled trader and swingers. To take note of the daily ancor, again is and will be 2345.12 ES until the end of the journey that will be long on time and price performance. Profit Target net in line for this trade is at the minimum 2577 ES, but think will extend much further since it is the 3 of III.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Scotty do you sense dejavu on this blog sometimes? With all due respect.

        • scottycj1 says:

          No….but I am aware of when many here mimic the broader sentiment when most are bearish. Look at Arthur Knopfs sentiment indicators…..looks like last May with many other indicators….Rsi, Stochs etc making lows and a lot here were bearish…..like now.

          • vivelaamo says:

            This reminds me of every other pb. Everyone on here starts to short the bounce and it just keeps going up. It happens over and over again. I know because I’ve been a victim of shorting the bounce in the past. Pb is done in my opinion.

            • Richard Glackin says:

              You are correct vive…see my posts on Sat, Aug 19, this is exactly what I was expecting. Everyone, it seems was expecting a double ‘ab’. I was not because I see the fundamental count from Minor 3-4 is wrong. I noted this at 9:39 and 9:49 on Sat in the Weekend update. Shortly thereafter, Arthur Knopf also pointed out that there was an “Upside Surprise Ahead at 1:21 pm via SentimentSignals…again, I reiterated that is what I was expecting. If you follow the crowd, the crowd will burn you. Good luck all.

    • phil1247 says:

      incorrect

      i can tell you without a doubt
      there is no extension long anchor from 2345.12 or anywhere near there

      • phil1247 says:

        francesca

        if you took the time to understand David Halseys method
        you would realize that what you posted makes absolutely no sense

        • I have been following DH for 2 years and thanks to him for my learning. But he doesent want to hear of anything other and as well E.W. So I went a step further so you should. Have been escaping his trading room since was brain washing all with his resetting of wealth and the big market crush to come in 2015 etc. buy gold and silver and put under the mattress etc. etc. etc. He as well forgot to tel, I guess there is a daily ext long in perfect play. I am sure is waiting the crush yet to come…..

          • phil1247 says:

            francesca…..

            yes i agree with you about DH and his big picture themes
            he trips himself up sometimes because he is trying to correlate things and has a bias at times ..

            but his method is very solid .. he may not implement it maximally at times
            example….. his bond analysis .
            . he was bullish all the way down from last years peak
            i did not agree and sold into bond rallies and shorted
            while he was looking for buy entries
            ..by the time he realized what was going on it was too late

            his method works….
            but …..i dont listen to him much anymore

            • Good for you. But since you are here try to correlate the good part of his method with E.W. And remeber ES is a leading indicator respect at SPX that lags.

              • fotis2 says:

                Disagree any trading method or system should be used stand alone once one begins to mix/correlate systems/methods failure just around the corner awaits.

              • fionamargaret says:

                I was going to suggest that to Phil as well Francesca.
                If he does EW and knows the fib method of DH, combine the 2, and have a system that attracts folks here.
                I miss George, Ariez etc…

              • vivelaamo says:

                I have no idea how day traders use Elliot wave. It’s beyond me and hats off it works for you.

                I can see how it can work over the longer team thought to keep you with the trend and the OEW pivots certainly work.

      • Its not so complicated, every wave stand alone, the sign is before a new wave starts the shorts are all broken and the long too. Meaning you start the count from scratch, a new extension starts at the beginning of all bakes, usually that happens on a wave 2 or II. Therefore the start has be counted from the end of the 2 or II. And there we go. Not long ago said T.C. that a new long would start. Have been became the joke of LeeX and T.C. Result, they have been going on rear gear all the way to the end of the way. Think they have lost 190 points…… Could never forget it>

  10. vivelaamo says:

    My money is on SPX making an all time high before the month ends. Literally.

  11. Next pivots above 2444?

  12. 2460 then 2440, then 2480, then big drop. This is what I’ve been sayin for a week

  13. Mary773 says:

    Tony,

    Which price level would have to be surpassed for you to conclude that IV has completed?

    Thank you.

  14. next short possibility 2455. not even a 2 point pull back today. why front run a stampede

  15. vipulm555 says:

    Smartz are fun 🙂

  16. vivelaamo says:

    Dow looks like it will backtest trend break at th 18 daily sma. Maybe worth going short there. 21931 as I speak.

  17. fotis2 says:

    Good short entry longs obviously not working.

  18. phil1247 says:

    NEWBIE….

    bears need to go back to camp
    fumbled badly .
    allowed da boyze to get ext longs going on es
    prepare to be squeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezed to 2461

  19. perfect bull day, just up up and more up with only 1 – 2 point pull backs. probably up 30 sp points today nice trend up day

  20. fionamargaret says:

    Oil is going up, and time to buy the oil stocks too…ERX, UWT let’s see if it can get to 19
    UGLD, NUGT, JNUG, DBC, VXX

    • CampFreddie says:

      still agree on oil.

    • blubrd67 says:

      What, you are out of UGAZ?

      • fionamargaret says:

        You think I would desert UGAZ…we are in this together….
        ..have UWT also…what do you think?

        • blubrd67 says:

          I have UWT too, but not I’m as confident on that one as you are, if it’s going to continue shooting up, or correct more before it goes to 55

          • fionamargaret says:

            I was just interested Blu, as you use a different method to me.
            Bloomberg says the spread between Brent and Nymex suggests a glut here, but not so much everywhere else. I always just went with the numbers and patterns and was successful that way.
            I only have a small position.
            If you think the stock market is going higher, the energy stocks (ERX) are at the base of the pattern and also a 52 week low…..
            I hope you are doing well, or at least better than I…..x

  21. travis01 says:

    From yesterday…
    “Tend to like cont upswing to next pivot (2444ish) before drop. Short uvxy with 31 target”

    Just about there at that point. Likely sit out even if it blows through…then readjust. No need for greed

  22. JK1987 says:

    they are trying to morph into an irregular flat with ed wave c, always a good idea to sub-divided the 3 of all levels. it still a flat, the result still is the same. if 13 hours not enuf, make it 21. they gotta to honor Janet some credit after Jackson hole on Friday.
    0822 2017 morning e-mini

    don’t worry about this 13-year kid, school almost starts, and will be gone from the internet.
    timer is starting to counting down 10 .9 .8 …
    thanks to Tony & oew for all these.

    two things:
    1. since the turn on the 8th confirmed, I know the path has started, no way to escape. well prepared & verified with not only one, or two, or three history. just history repeating.

    2. from 2016’s 1810 low, there are only three waves to 2491. imho, the biggest trap would be, there would be no five waves. think about it. enuf said.
    cheers!

  23. JK1987 says:

    learning from the best teacher, highly recommended.
    https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/06/03/oew-tutoring-117/

    here is what I earlier meant by “here we could be having a failed flat (soon be done) for the second, and coming third. that’s how it goes for a weak market.”

    Aug 22, we should have a gap and crap for around 30 min, so the total time for weak failed flat 2 would be Fibonacci 13 hours.
    then comes the strongest third wave down. break down 2400? should be so by a large scale if it’s a 3.
    21 hours? 34 hours? 55 hours? that’s pooch’s expertise.
    then we have a sharp rise for the fourth wave.
    then another dump for the 5th.

    that’s just my estimation, market will be the judge – not anybody’s wish or guess.

    0822 2017 am e-mini

    cheers!

    • vivelaamo says:

      Nice chart JK. I say keep it simple and look what the daily telling you. I’ll post it later when home from work. Have a good day.

      PS Despacito probably best song of all time. The version without Bieber that is 😉

    • aahmichael says:

      Just like to point out that your labels violate the most basic of all EW rules. The first wave of all flats subdivide by 3, not 5. You’re calling it a flat, but you have it labeled as an ‘irregular’ or ‘expanded’ zig-zag, of which there is no such thing.

      • JK1987 says:

        no matter how one count it, sub-divided it, still a flat, from the picture looking.
        or still not enuf, make it a double to wait for Janet on Friday.
        timing should still be one of the Fibonacci hours.
        well, what do I know? just a new-bie 🙂

  24. mjtplayer says:

    Phil – regarding your question yesterday, yes I’m still short oil via SCO. Have been short since July 28th in the mid $49’s WTI. It has taken longer than expected, but oil has broken. The bear flag has completed and broken, now confirmed. The bounce took us back to test the underside of the bear flag, could be a classic “kiss goodbye”. Friday looked like a classic short squeeze turned bull trap, today’s daily candle printed a “dark cloud cover” – down we go from here.

    My target is just below $40 to test the bottom of the downtrend channel, I know you’re looking a bit lower.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/SbAU1nrj/

    • phil1247 says:

      CL V7

      . bearish below …….. 49.03
      target………………………. 45.70
      then comes the battle of 45.56..
      .the long from lows support ……
      once that gives way….
      we should collapse
      down to 38.71 target quickly

  25. scottycj1 says:

    Funderburk
    Heres the chart. This is not the Market Map….it’s a timing method based on numbers and geometry based on Ganns teachings.

    • JK1987 says:

      I am not the judge (& don’t want to be), market be the judge.

      on the Weekend update, you posted:
      “These are the Gann major turn dates for the last 3 years. The next were last week and the coming week. Why 2 possible weeks ? Depends on where you measure from. ”

      to be fair, that turn could also be the previous week with RSI at overbought.
      look at the following chart, at previous three major lows. today’s RSI is not low enough for a major low.
      on the contrary, market started the strongest sell-off from current RSI level for weeks.

      two of the major lows have + divergences (that’s most favorite status).

      I believe Gann timing is ok, just personal interpretation.
      sounds fair?

      0821 2017 Gann timing Scottycj1

    • mjtplayer says:

      We’ll see, but I still say we topped a couple weeks ago and we’re pulling back, no low until mid-Sept at the earliest, probably Oct

      • JK1987 says:

        if you have followed the discussion of Mary’s cycle, the answer probably is there.
        see, by analysis of the analysis, probably something the originator did not see (or from a different angle) can later become more clear and turns into his own benefits. as long as we have an open mind, and willing to listen. I observe one possible biggest enemy in him if willing to listen and turn into benefit.

  26. Ira says Russell is bearishly embedded now.Bonds looking like they want to rally.That’s your two sentence Ira Update.Later all.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Why aren’t the Fed helping stocks?

      • fotis2 says:

        Market digesting the following..

        The Bottom Line

        The combination of the new presidency and an improving U.S. economy has bought the balance sheet back into play. A highly critical Republican government that will likely replace Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Vice Chair Stanley Fischer in early 2018 looks set to put focus on the balance sheet.

        With these concerns, and a somewhat improving economy, the Fed laid out plans to begin tapering $10 billion in assets a month made up of $6 billion in Treasures and $4 billion in MBS. While no specific timing is set, most industry experts expect it to begin in the latter part of 2017.

  27. stormchaser80llc says:

    The lead today is that my proprietary Technicals Model fell sustantially, taking out any positive divergence that was forming vs. SPX. It has been lower 11 out of the past 12 trading days. SPX McClellan was lower again today for the 16th out of the last 17 trading days, but does maintain its positive divergence.

    While oil sold off some today, SPX had yet another indecisive doji. Drilling down to the hourly chart, it appears to be basing for a run higher, now surpassing its 2428 pivot. VIX continued its pullback and if I have this analysis right, a lower low is to come before a higher high than last week comes.

    All Summer I have been warning on the lead-up to the new SPX All Time High that a major top was coming. This was based on my proprietary Technicals Model which had been negatively diverging at times since mid April, and about 10 pre-top Hindenburg Omens. Also spoken about the historically narrow SPX Daily Bollinger Bands (going back to 1970) and very low readings coming from my statistically driven Volatility Model. Low volatility like this can proceed large moves. Then came a sweet SPX reversal candle on August 8th.

    3 Hindenburg Omens on the SPX last week. Read more about it under the Techniques menu at the top of my website. But just as a refresher, they mainly come before major tops, can occur during significant downdrafts and rarely do trigger at important bottoms. I am classifying the 5 that came after SPX ATH as the second category.

    Did you get to enjoy the total solar eclipse on August 21st? Well there is also a Black Moon today (third New Moon in a season with four New Moons). Read about Puetz Crash Windows under the Techniques menu at the top of my website. It doesn’t say a crash must occur in these conditions, just that the more significant ones tend to across all markets. The previous FULL moon was on 8/7 which was 1 day before the SPX ATH, and the next one is Sept 6th.

    Both my swing trading signals remain BEARISH (since 7/28 and 7/31). Internals were mixed but more lower than higher today, but remember they are maintaining a downward trend yet and yes, some are coming off their bottoms. Participation was slightly higher for all indicies. SPX A-D line remains below its descending 20 dma, remember it did not confirm the last SPX All Time High.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com) However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

    I want you to know I am quite serious about developing my site the right way, I am in this for the long haul, and I will improve my services at every opportunity I have. Traders this next part is for you! I recently uploaded a significant upgrade to the Trading Platform (see top menu of my site for the link). I offer 3 diverse models for the SPX AND the consensus of all 3 models, at time-periods of 1 min/5 min/10 min/15 min/30 min/1 hr and soon longer periods. No matter how frequently you like to trade, I will have you covered. I even have the ETF GLD (gold) available at the 1 min timeframe. These timeframes, available trading vehicles (why not oil, why not china etf?), and models will continue to expand over time! If you are an active trader, you will view my site as something more than just a daily analysis of the markets. I want traders to live here during market hours! I want us all to make money!

    • fionamargaret says:

      Just when you thought Beethoven 5 could not deliver even more emotion, Pollini plays with his son conducting…how wonderful is that..xx…and the Adagio…x

  28. mcgcapital says:

    Rallies still counter trend at this point. Let’s see if the bulls can reclaim the 2440/50 area if we rally. My money is on no. Break of 2400 and a washout in breadth fits better before new highs

  29. phil1247 says:

    ES

    still in extension shorts …
    bearish below……………2437
    target ……………………….2407.5
    if da boyze decide to break the short
    expect them to squeeeeeeze it up hard near 2461

    • Vishal says:

      2437 nicked overnight.. squeeze coming ?
      using a less aggressive 2462.5 as anchor .. bear below 2445 … and SPX pivot 2444

      • phil1247 says:

        what i am more interested in
        is the second long in the series up with target 2441

        if 2427.5 continues to support bears are in trouble

  30. NEWBIE says:

    Does anyone think we are going lower before higher? If so what is your target?

  31. scottycj1 says:

    Between my Gann timing and this sentiment reading…..I would not want to be short from these levels.

    • mjtplayer says:

      Is that the CNN Money fear/greed indicator? Pay no attention to that, it’s total dog schit

      • mcgcapital says:

        The line follows the market rather than predicts where it goes next. Look at summer 2015.. hit a similar level after the first dip but the market went down a further 10% before the next big rally came. Not saying that happens this time just that it doesn’t add anything

        • scottycj1 says:

          Sentiment Indicators are the least sharp indicators of them all……But they are general and have a relative meaning. I’m still trading off the Timing model I showed a few days ago. Those turns are solid and I have been showing everyone of them since 2014 when I came here. Trade against it at your peril.

          • mjtplayer says:

            Is that the Gann model? The one that shows the high 2 weeks ago?

          • JK1987 says:

            wow, I am impressed & convinced, what a great fear & greed chart. no wonder you have 100 credit.
            http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

            people, follow his lead. with his timing model and fear & greed chart – all in, long. he promised! Easyz! Smartz!
            as he said, buy, or periled.

            sounds like you like Bieber? this one for you.

            • JK1987 says:

              I meant this one

              • allen kimble says:

                Thats just plain CRAP!!!!!

              • JK1987 says:

                simply different taste, or for different age group.
                this song has 3 very popular singers.
                123 million views, and half a million people like this song. they all like this you called CRAP?

                123,799,910 views
                like: 503,348

                I like tza, you like tna – just different taste. anything about that?
                squeeze me if you can, I got tza low 15’s

                for the guy know Gann so much for so long (triple my age:)
                I hope he is right about the Gann timing, so that Gann’s reputation will not be ruined.
                and I can go for a long vacation if market makes new high within the rest of 2017. that would be a relive for me.
                on the other hand, if spx goes below today’s low of 2017. I hope he can take the responsibility & not hiding, so that Gann’s reputation won’t be destroyed by him.

              • fionamargaret says:

                I really liked the song arrangement.

              • JK1987 says:

                🙂 these are dancing songs. I love them.

    • CampFreddie says:

      Scotty – Agree strongly, as usual.

  32. vipulm555 says:

    Market rallies back to new high now.
    PB is over.

    Smartz

    • JK1987 says:

      I hope you are right, then I have a long vacation. 🙂
      I made a promise to our team,
      if the market makes a new high within 2017, I will close the book, go vacation for the rest.
      I have this much committed.

      I am a fool still looking at the market. shouldn’t until big ones coming.

      Foolz

  33. NEWBIE says:

    Every bull and bear looking for bounce to 2050 area, is it gonna be that easy?

  34. Just so I can follow you…are you now suggesting there is a possibility that if a 3 wave minute wave “a” ended today or soon, you are then expecting a minute wave “b” up and from that high, if minute wave a = c there could be approx. a 74 point decline for minute c of major C? That would be a total of 7 waves.

    • Sorry, thanks for all your hard work and effort in maintaining this blog. I enjoyed the special treat with your “headwinds update.” Found it helped me to summarize/visualize where the equities markets are from an Elliott Wave perspective.

  35. lunker1 says:

    Thx Tony. You said major A and B do you mean Minor?

    C=1.62A=2413 close enough?

    +D on 60 and Daily and price back above BB

  36. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $SILVER at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

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