Friday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then choppy day, DOW -76

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.0%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.6%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and the market opened 3-points lower than yesterday’s SPX 2430 close. At 10am consumer sentiment was reported higher, the SPX hit 2421, and the market started to rally. The rally topped out at SPX 2440 by 12:30. Then the market drifted down for the rest of the day to close at SPX 2426.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.10%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude rallied $1.55, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2411 and 2385 pivots, with resistance at the 2428 and 2444 pivots. This week the Q3 GDP estimate was reported at 3.8%.

The market opened slightly lower today, hit SPX 2421, then rallied to SPX 2440. After that the market eased back to end the day about where it opened. While the market does look like it is in a profit taking correction mode, the decline thus far has been quite orderly and symmetrical. Plus, several of the majors are displaying positive daily RSI divergences. Interesting market. More on this in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probably underway

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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35 Responses to Friday update

  1. JK1987 says:

    Tony, thank you for all the work you have done for us.

    if there ever is a large scale crash coming, like you be the man, be the hero to making the call. adding the prize to oew historical calls, all yours. we are your supporting crews.
    sometimes out of box thinking will see different things.

    OEW tutoring
    Posted on June 3, 2017

    At that time our analysis led us to believe that a stock market crash was likely in late-1987 to early-1988. Then another bull market would be underway. When the stock market did crash in October 1987, and a new bull market began in late-1987, we knew we had uncovered some of the missing tenets of the Elliott Wave Theory.

  2. torehund says:

    Good weekend Tony and all. Ugly action persisting for lpnger than expected. But still just an abc down. Risky times for sure🐼

  3. jobjas says:

    SPX projection

  4. Hi,Thanks Tony
    Updating triangle TA,h1 and h2 heights,in doubt which is the correct for target projection,but for what i learned the correct way is h2(on fibo),h1 already reached

    https://invst.ly/4uwg0
    https://invst.ly/4uw3m

  5. JK1987 says:

    interesting gap at 2468, right around 61.8%
    how are we gonna handle this downside gap?
    https://gyazo.com/8f33e02fcd5ac0c57423a1911e0d867c

    one way to do it is as following, but is it too bullish?
    https://gyazo.com/0baaad7e64d78d087049cc6ab90a6e10

    is there other way? so far, no other downside gap unfilled. is there any exception in the history?

    Trump dismantled panels.
    suggesting Fiona maybe can assemble a panel here as where the market might be going?
    those CEOs are welcome to join oew panel. 🙂

  6. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

    Let me know if you want to meet up at the Ozzy Osborne concert during the eclipse
    😉

  7. Thanks Tony. Came within 1.5 points of perfect symmetry and the actual came in very close to and between my two primary targets . Anxious for your latest thinking and thoughts to be released in the WE update. A somewhat weak finish but its Friday and ANTIFA and its counterparts may decide to blow up some monuments over the weekend while local authorities “stand down” to avoid conflict.

  8. vipulm555 says:

    +ve divergence at close, Sunday pop marks the bottom

  9. fionamargaret says:

    Icahn leaves as a Trump advisor….

    • fbender7 says:

      All the rats that are abandoning ship will hopefully be replaced with better people. Obviously something good will happen within the Trump administration because market corrections/pullbacks don’t last forever. If Tony’s OEW wave count is correct, we will be in a bull market for quite some time.

      • fionamargaret says:

        Absolutely…just reassure me he won’t take us to war, with millions of casualties (and China saying they would defend NK if we have a pre-emptive strike)…I just worry about his thinking…this is not meant to be political, just written in unease….

        • fionamargaret says:

          “Hope springs eternal in the human breast,
          Man never is, but always to be blessed.
          The soul, uneasy and confined from home,
          Rests and expatiates in a life to come.”…….Alexander Pope..”An Essay on Man”

    • Bud Fox says:

      Fiona, Hi…What’s going on with the folks in DC ??? Looking like many are running scared…

      • fionamargaret says:

        Bud, I think John Kelly is making changes….Marines do a fine job, if left to their own devices….

    • Along with Bannon. Fiona, I covered 1/2 my oil shorts at 46.55 yesterday and was stopped out on the balance today at 47.25. When I saw a higher low hold, I was confident it was going to hit the fan. Still, a decent trade in terms of $$. Need time to watch as my thesis is and has been an oil glut and recent remarks by Gartman address only OPEC, some members of which continue to be in non compliance.

      • fionamargaret says:

        Yes, I had a thesis on the oil glut too Stephen, with oil going to 41…but the numbers changed and suggest higher oil…so think Venezuela maybe…(my still suggesting this after losing my shirt)….oil threw me some back today though.
        Bloomberg insists on dragging anyone who believes in 40/oil to the forefront…but then someone did mention there was a change to the structure and Brent was in backwardation, so better times (for my argument) supposedly are ahead.
        I appreciated your charts and knew you were absent to count your spoils….but really well done x

  10. vivelaamo says:

    I’m bullish on markets but very disappointed with the close. It suggests more downside. I could bitch and moan about conspiracy theory’s and Yellen or I could just wait until it looks like a better opportunity to go long. I could even go short but I feel that ship will soon have sailed.

    Have a good weekend all.

  11. Bud Fox says:

    Thank you Tony, and have a restful weekend…..Bud

  12. kingfrogcash says:

    after the bell
    U.S. TRADE OFFICE SAYS FORMALLY LAUNCHES SECTION 301 INVESTIGATION INTO CHINA TRADE PRACTICES REGARDING TECHNOLOGY AND INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY

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