Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then pullback, DOW +5

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 retail sales, import prices and the NY FED were all reported higher. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 2466 close, and then began to pullback. At 10am business inventories and the NAHB were both reported higher. By 1pm the SPX had reached 2462, and then tried to rally. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2469, then pulled back to close at 2465.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.05%. Bonds lost 13 ticks, Crude was flat, Gold dropped $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Tomorrow: housing starts, building permits and the FOMC minutes.

The market opened today one-point above yesterday’s high at SPX 2469, then immediately began to pullback. After touching SPX 2462 at 10:30, and then again at 1pm, the market started to rally. The market rallied back to the highs of the day in the last half hour of trading. Then pulled back to end the day at SPX 2465. We still have only one wave up: SPX 2438 to 2469. Short term support remains at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day above neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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132 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. fionamargaret says:

    Very very well done Phil x

  2. sell it off into the close Please
    close 2455 or im going to cover my short

  3. NEWBIE says:

    Straight down from here, we are gonna breach 2400 in quick fashion.

    • We hit SPX 2,471 today – the 61.8% retrace level off the recent low. As of this afternoon, we’ve closed both gaps from the opens of Wed-Thur, Aug 9 and 10.

      Next gap to fill is Monday’s gap up opening, so…filling that one would bring us back down to the Friday’s 2,442 close, which would start the c-wave or iii-wave down.

      I think it’s going to grind and take a lot of time, but I do think the trend is down.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Damn it Newbie people are trying to make money here !

  4. NEWBIE says:

    Bulls bend over time!!

  5. phil1247 says:

    SILVER

    oh mamma !
    at 100 d sma and .618 resistance
    ready to sell if we dont blast upwards now

  6. micky says:

    2475 still seems a bit difficult, gotto see what market decides now.

  7. Im short here with a stop at 2480 will see

    high of morming may be in at 12:26

  8. Mary773 says:

    Once in a generation, a precious man emerges whom we should all cherish:

  9. allen1929 says:

    1.94 p/c first 1/2 hour.
    Can that be?

  10. looking for some kind of day high between 12 and 1 then a pull back and then at 2 see what happens. Bearish below 2480 bullish above. And actually if we don’t drop hard after fed minutes as in 1/2 percent probably continue higher for rest of week to 2500 level

  11. Richard Glackin says:

    Wild ride this morning…but only 6 pts.

  12. phil1247 says:

    COFFEE

    bought coffee just now …..JO
    initial position.
    …now at .50 support from low and lower bb

    see ya !

  13. filipozze says:

    Hi Tony, here my interpretation of DOW JONES, in my opinion Dow can reach 30.000 points before facing any correction : is it possible in your opinion?

    https://www.yogile.com/hka2dsj8

  14. phil1247 says:

    hi ho SILVER!!!

    raised stops on doubled position
    approaching resistance

  15. fionamargaret says:

    Now we are playing oil long to about 55, using UWT….chart of oil below.
    Inventories out today probably showing large drawdown (good), but then you will get traders try and get the market down….we are not going to let them….x

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24WTIC,PWTADANRRO%5BP%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!3!!!2!20%5D

  16. 61.8% upward retrace of last week’s low finally hit at the open today at SPX 2,471.

  17. vipulm555 says:

    Trumph is a spoiled brat, he is an attention seeker.
    He is still lives in glamour world with page 3 personality.
    If he actually worked , then gossips on twitter he could have health care replaced by now.

  18. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony. Trumph continues to impress me, disarming self righteous fanatics on both side left and right. Thats surely not what we need more of in todays society. Lets de-escalate the hysteria and move on🏎

  19. fotis2 says:

    Gold shrt and Crude note broke Bull flag testing breakdown today

    https://invst.ly/4tsc-
    https://invst.ly/4tsfs

    • phil1247 says:

      Fotis

      47.62 ( ext short ) was broken above and we are right back there again
      could squeeze up to 48 .32 … all discussed yesterday

      inventories should give direction today
      CL is bearish
      but if short you have to be ready for squeeze up to 49.11
      if 48.32 is broken above

      that is the gift area to go SHORT i am looking for
      because above 49.11 short is broken

      i sold longs at 50.30 end of july
      and have just been watching the drama .
      .. i have no interest in holding a triple long etf in a declining market
      and getting chopped up !

      • phil1247 says:

        GC
        bounced perfectly at 1273 but the long from there has failed
        in extension shorts and bearish below 1280
        plus the yen is looking sickly….(correlation) 🙂

      • Phil, there was a massive drawdown in inventories in the report released yesterday by the API, accounting for the bounce, Energy Information Administration report on oil inventories is due on today at 10:30 a.m. EDT. Longer term a supply glut.

        • phil1247 says:

          yes stephen….
          i appreciate that
          …but i am only concerned with the time of the EIA release
          i dont really care what it reveals
          i want to see the reaction to the news
          the typical reaction is … good news… spike .. then sell off
          boyze looking to run stops

  20. vivelaamo says:

    Seems like the theme for the week could be buy futures, sell cash. Considering shorting RUT on open. Have a good day all.

  21. Nothing better than seeing Trump tear into the media.It’s better than how GDX is acting.Ira says,the key support is 1259.Stays above that and you can rally to over 1300.War maneuvers next week in SK with US military.Gold might catch a bid in advance,but I can already see the”post maneuver-nothing happened” selloff cascading down.Ira says most of the markets are trendless.Agree with that.Good night all.

    • One more I noticed….downtrend line on DAX at 12200.A little longer time framed downtrend line 100 pts higher.Could be two turning points if the selloff were to ramp up on the DAX.

  22. stormchaser80llc says:

    SPX daily put in a doji candle, a sign of indecision, while remaining below its 20 dma. Today we got another Hindenburg Omen. Read more about it under the Techniques menu at the top of my website. But just as a refresher, they mainly come before major tops, can occur during significant downdrafts and rarely do trigger at important bottoms. I am classifying today’s as the second category, the 3rd such type since the All Time High.

    There is a total solar eclipse on August 21st (Monday), read about Puetz Crash Windows under the Techniques menu at the top of my website. It doesn’t say a crash must occur in these conditions, just that the more significant ones tend to across all markets.

    SPX hourly retraced lower as advertised yesterday. Still at today’s lows positive divergences were not put in, leaving lower lows more likely. If August 8th was indeed THE TOP, I would expect SPX hourly to then rise to a nominal new uptrend high with significant negative divergences across the board. If that happens, look out below! This scenario would work well with the fact that I am looking for a new low in VIX as well (on the final upswing in this scenario).

    Both my swing trading signals remain BEARISH (since 7/28 and 7/31). Internals were mixed today, yet maintain a downward trend. Participation fell a lot more for small and mid caps vs SPX. SPX A-D line remains above its descending 20 dma, remember it did not confirm the last SPX All Time High. The SPX McClellan made its 12th negative reading in the past 13.

    My proprietary Technicals Model was a little higher today, but still made its 7th negative reading during the past 8 days. This is another reason the uptrend should not be over, as usually it will diverge from SPX before a change in trend (unless it is a small scale change in trend).

    HYG:IEF bounced higher into its Bollinger Band but remains below all major moving averages. Plus no positive divergences were made at its bottom on 8/10 so its most likely still in a downtrend. Oil made a lower low, but finished higher for the day on a doji candle. Looking at its hourly chart, I think a lower low is more likely (but mixed signals with indicators make this a low confidence call) before a reversal higher. I am surprised the consolidation/pullback has taken this long, for my theory of new oil highs to be correct, it needs to turn around soon.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com) However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

    I want you to know I am quite serious about developing my site the right way, I am in this for the long haul, and I will improve my services at every opportunity I have. Traders this next part is for you! I recently uploaded a significant upgrade to the Trading Platform (see top menu of my site for the link). I offer 3 diverse models for the SPX AND the consensus of all 3 models, at time-periods of 1 min/5 min/10 min/15 min/30 min/1 hr and soon longer periods. No matter how frequently you like to trade, I will have you covered. I even have the ETF GLD (gold) available at the 1 min timeframe. These timeframes, available trading vehicles (why not oil, why not china etf?), and models will continue to expand over time! If you are an active trader, you will view my site as something more than just a daily analysis of the markets. I want traders to live here during market hours! I want us all to make money!

    • cmucha68 says:

      Fiona, cannot you not put 6 or 7 more music videos here daily and perhaps 3-5 more market comments of other analysts ? I just can’t get enough of your good stuff.

      • fionamargaret says:

        Sometimes Cmucha it has been a difficult day for some, and if this is their web-site of choice, the music helps the brain unwind.
        It is always interesting to me to hear what others are thinking, especially with billions to invest.
        I can tell you my ideas on the market, but Tony does a fine job in that regard.
        If you are upset about something, do talk with me, and we will try and work something out.
        Life is too short to live with a chip on your shoulder….chips are for eating…..xx

  23. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.

  24. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

  25. Bud Fox says:

    TWTR comment….I own it. But, price has remained no,
    yet no price crash into single numbers. I like it, Currently,
    my MACD, 10,20,4 has rendered a Buy signal. Interesting
    that, I am the only one in the world who currently likes this stock.
    No followed by Tony, my only mistake. Best selling price for
    me is near $20 ish….

    • 123 abc says:

      According to the OEW charts, TWTR may to be imminently starting Intermediate-iii of Major-3 which would take prices way beyond the $25 high of Major-1 wave. So, if the count is correct, personally would hold for the long-term until Primary-i is complete with a stop at $14.12

  26. aahmichael says:

    Anyone know what $VIX did during the Civil War? Asking for a friend.

  27. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #OIL at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  28. At some point this trump non sense is going to matter to the markets. I mean there is a 50/50 shot McCain voted against health care because trump said he wasn’t a war hero because he was captured. Picks on Mitch McConnell senate majority leader. Ceos fleeing from his committee. At some point he has to learn how to play nice in the sand box or nothing gets done, government will shut down and democrats will stick it to the republicans. Gotta have some friends in D.C. To get something done. Market hasn’t cared, but come September I gotta feeling there going to care.

    • fenster6 says:

      Trump has lots of friends, but they are busy carrying torches these days. The irony is he made his Billions from stiffing small contractors, using illegal labor and courting dictators, and people say DC is a swamp LOL

    • lcd00 says:

      Well said. A serious reckoning on many fronts is on deck for September, there’s no longer any escaping it. The market will care, among other entities…

    • lunker1 says:

      SP is up 400-500 points since Trump election night. I doubt it’s going to retrace it all. even a 10% correction only gets you 250pts. can’t blame Trump for everything so stop trying to. trade the tape not the media hype

  29. bfquant says:

    A 35 basis point trading range since 10 a.m. yesterday. Wow.

    • Fed algos at work
      They must have noticed the long list of articles over the weekend stating volatility is back

      • bfquant says:

        I think they did. They went to work Sunday night and engaged all of the appropriate transmission channels. In no market does the VIX double in 10 trading days and then so quickly revert back to the thin ranges we’ve seen. The thing is how quickly it settled back into “tick tick tick” mode.

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