Weekend update

Sorry, some family matters came up and I will not have the time to devote to analyzing the markets and producing a weekend update. The SPX spent the entire week within a 15-point range. So there really isn’t much to add to last weekend’s update, or the daily posts. Enjoy your weekend!

About tony caldaro

Investor
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146 Responses to Weekend update

  1. im thinking bulls win big with a close over 2479 bears win if under will see

  2. Bud Fox says:

    Investor Sentiment appears to have crest, a TOP ???
    http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/chartbook/303886645;

  3. squeeze or fail here I suppose. see what the last hour and half brings us

  4. phil1247 says:

    BOEING

    is stalling at resistance now
    its the powerhouse of the DOW
    but if it fails here
    extension long support is around 50 points below the peak near 192

    that would put a major hurt on the DOW

  5. NEWBIE says:

    They are gonna smash this thing into the ground when cash market is closed. My best guess is N Korea will be blamed as to the reason. I can see it already, Everything was going great until N. Korea…….

    • vivelaamo says:

      Why when cash market closed? They been ramping up futures for weeks.

    • tommyboys says:

      LOL … Newb – precious 😮

    • pooch77 says:

      Nah to early yet

    • scottycj1 says:

      Newbie……
      Just like last week and the week before and the week before and the week before…….you really are sad.

      • NEWBIE says:

        Scotty, go troll somebody else.

        • scottycj1 says:

          Your the troll…..and an ignorant one at that…….what makes you so sad is you continue with the same inaccurate behaviour……..

        • vivelaamo says:

          Newbie you been trolling this site for years!!

          • NEWBIE says:

            I have been visiting this site for years, however, I do not go around picking fights with people here. Some of you guys want to come attack me because my view is different than yours, you guys need to grow up. Plus, if we took a vote I am willing to bet I am more welcome here than both you _______! (Use your imagination)

            • JK1987 says:

              NEWBIE,
              Please do not have others affect your trading decision, and your emotion.
              Suggest you to have an Ignore List, and never react to those in the list.

              I see the enormous wave c coming.
              If you like, I can send it to you, both price and time. crystal clear!

              Peace, Calm.
              Cheers!

            • vivelaamo says:

              Come on Newbie it’s not a popularity contest. You know full well you are just taking the piss when call for crashes every week for years when the market keeps going up. It was probably funny the first 100 times, but now it’s just silly.

              I’m not attacking, I’m just saying how I see it.

        • Bud Fox says:

          this board, reads… like a cry,moan and bitch group. ie: please go troll someone else.
          write quality investment comments, and move on…..

          • vivelaamo says:

            You mean quality investment comments like this Bud?

            ‘They are gonna smash this thing into the ground when cash market is closed’

            Make bold yet baseless statements on an internet blog then expect comments about it. Good night and god bless Bud.

    • JK1987 says:

      NEWBIE,
      The scale of the coming wave c should be enormous, even beyond your imagination.
      Same kind of wave c happened in history.
      I have tza, the best performer of all, much better the the 10 straight up dow.
      Cheers.

    • torehund says:

      Turn around quickly, and reap. As Martin points out vix is low for a reason, no one is buying this market, thus no need for protection. Just do your math🌷

  6. According to Ira’s method(not Ira,my interpretation)SPX support is at 2467 (after lost embedded).Then 2439(lower bb).

  7. ohmtoom says:

    Is this the potential count ? Going short @ 2480 with stops at ATH for targets of 2455-2460.

    Wave A : 2484 – 2460
    Wave B – Ascending triangle with wave (e) in formation now
    Wave C – 2480 to 2455 ?

  8. vivelaamo says:

    Time for small caps to rally?

  9. Couple of items.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/02/art-cashin-in-years-ending-in-7-stocks-tend-to-top-out-before-the-end-of-august.html?recirc=taboolainternal
    I just noticed BitCon is over 3200 now.I have one question about it.How do you cash in?You have it in your wallet,but from what I’ve read,banks will not allow bitcon to be deposited in an actual bank account?Any comments?

    • fotis2 says:

      Good question on the weekend read how these lowlifes abducted a lady and were trying to sell her on the dark web what caught my eye they wanted payment in bitcoin thankfully lady rescued and in good health bitcoin seems preferred currency for drug dealers, money launderers etc surely time for government to stop this nonsense.

    • scottycj1 says:

      LML
      You mean like 2007 High>>>>October 11, 2007 DUH

  10. fionamargaret says:

    If you are using UWT for oil, it says oil to 19….

    • fionamargaret says:

      ..well I mean UWT to 19, oil tol 55…..then we will see if there is the IHS which would take us much higher…around 70…

  11. phil1247 says:

    / YM

    melt up continues
    1.618 wave 3 level hit
    2.618 is about 400 points higher
    sky is the limit until extension long fails

  12. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

  13. gary61b says:

    ES, overhead level 2477.5 was hit on friday as mentioned, still waiting for the PB to 2468.25 then 5 up to 2478.75 or 2480.5, then start of C down. JMO.

  14. shauryagh says:

    Long term stochastic divergence analysis suggests that the low of the downthrust day in Silver on 7/7/17 is a highly probability long term bottom. However such long term stochastic divergences are still not visible in Gold. Analysis of short term weekly oscillators in silver does suggest that Silver also needs to give a weekly closing below 15.58. Should silver give a weekly close below 15.58 while holding above the 14.86 bottom we will have a set-up for the most ferocious counter-trend bull rally yet in the entire 20 year silver bear market .Such a rally will easily penetrate the $26 resistance cluster and target $35 even $45 before it ends. Alternatively if silver starts trending higher before giving a weekly close below $15.58 then such a set-up will not be formed and any rally in Silver will turn around from the $26 resistance cluster..In such a scenario Silver can be bot on a closing break above 16.9 for a minimum target of 21 and maximum target of 26

  15. kingfrogcash says:

    Tulips, err Bitcoin surged to all time highs + $3200 over the weekend about 15% since 4pm Friday.
    http://bitcoinity.org/markets

  16. bouraq says:

    Chart of the weekend is #GOLD at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  17. soulsurfer says:

    Glad to hear things have stabilized Tony.

    here’s what i am currently seeing:

    https://investingintelligent.com/2017/08/06/sp500-and-dow-jones-update-a-few-more-scribbles-or-not/

    we’ll have to see how all this pans out ’cause it’s a tricky market with many indices in different (micro) counts.

    GL!!

  18. H D says:

    No worries Tony, enjoy the break. Glad to hear things are stable.

  19. mjtplayer says:

    Per Friday’s COT:

    – Another record high in VIX short interest. VIX net-short interest is now off the charts, over 150k contracts – double the short interest from just April. The short squeeze, when it happens, will be massive and perhaps historic. Being short the VIX now and over the next couple months could be hazardous to your financial health. We’re entering the volatility window now in mid Aug, it continues through late Oct.

    – Oil net-long exposure largest since Feb and 2nd largest since June 2014 – both were great opportunities to sell and/or go short. Everyone is now long oil and on one side of the boat.

    • H D says:

      MJ- just another perspective. There’s a guy on tweeter @jessefelder who’s been noting the record VIX *futures short for MONTHS! The VIX was a niner in Feb. 200 SPX points ago… Smarter market IMO. VIX was down 40% last month. Oil rallied 20% last month. COT are not bag holders. Even though the COT is backward looking it’s smart money IMO.

      Also, the VIX futures have zero impact on the VIX calculation.

      Agree about TIME. That seems to be the best indicator currently. Last several years have seen more volatility July-Oct. Good eyes

      If someone wanted exposure to volatility what’s the play? What product? thx

      • CBOE offers VVIX, claimed to be a measure of the volatility of volatility. In reality, though, the prices of VVIX track VIX to the tune of 84%. The guy who would know is Peter Tschir, a very smart guy who often posts on Twiiter and writes for Barrons.

        • H D says:

          Thx Stephen, a VIX for the VIX?Now that’s a real scam. Ha. What’s the trade though? How do people get long volatility? Can’t trade VVIX I assume.

          • mjtplayer says:

            VXX

            But the key to trading these volatility ETF’s is timing. During normal futures contango, the time decay can be considerable. If you’re early in going long by a few weeks, the time decay can rot 5% or even 10%. Conversely, during times of volatility and the VIX futures curve goes into backwardation, the exact opposite occurs.

            • H D says:

              Exactly! Even had you timed the Feb. 9 handle on VIX and bot the VXX thing you’d have lost 12% the first week, despite the VIX 30% rally, and be down 42% over the last 6 months. Much like UVXwhY- VXX has never rallied. There is so much attention on VIX but I can’t figure out how anyone has made money on it. THX

          • Your beloved UVXY ….may be….. lol.

  20. J.Wenger says:

    Godspeed Tony! Glad everything appears to be on the up and up. It’s about time you took some time off! 😉
    http://www.invest-safely.com/stock-market-outlook-2017-08-06.html

  21. tony caldaro says:

    Thank you all for your well wishes.
    All appears stable now, nothing drastic.
    Taking the rest of the weekend off, first in 4 years.
    The potential short term count noted, as many of you have guessed, is a triangle.
    2460-2480-2465-2480, a drop below 2470 again should seal the deal.
    Thank you for your continued readership, and keeping this a no nonsense market related blog.

    • Page says:

      Tony, Thanks for all you do. God bless you and your family. 🙂

    • Relieved to hear its a short term issue

    • 123 abc says:

      Good to hear that the situation isn’t too substantial, best wishes for continued stability.

      In regards to the count, see two scenarios if the Triangle plays out…

      —If indeed a Triangle is currently underway (and we know a wave-2 cannot be a Triangle), it would confirm that the rise from 2408 to 2484 cannot be considered as Micro-1 of Minute-iii as depicted on the daily chart, and instead it is indeed a b-wave.

      —Alternatively, Micro-1 of Minute-iii is still underway and is currently in a Nano-iv Triangle.

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