Thursday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then narrow range, DOW +10

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 jobless claims were reported lower. The market opened three points below yesterday’s SPX 2478 close, then pulled back to 2471 by 10am. At 10am ISM services were reported lower, but factory orders were reported higher. The market then worked its way back to the SPX 2475 opening level by 11am. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2469, then bounded to close at 2472.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.35%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude lost 65 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly payrolls (est. +180k) at 8:30, then the trade deficit at 3pm.

The market opened at SPX 2475, dropped to 2469 in the last hour, spending the entire day within a 6-point range. Today was the 12th consecutive trading day the SPX traded within the OEW 2479 pivot range. What is resistance now, will eventually become support. During this period the overbought condition has now dropped to neutral, or below, except for the DOW. Short-term, and very short-term counts, remain mixed. Anyone’s guess which way the market will head from here short term. A case can be made for either direction. Short term support is at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day near neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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111 Responses to Thursday update

  1. torehund says:

    Happy weekend Tony and Crew🍀

  2. Hi,thanks Tony
    Updating that triangle posted some time ago
    there is room to reach H2 height target,around 22370

  3. vivelaamo says:

    DOW! Wow. Did I set my target to low?

    • fotis2 says:

      Fell off the wagon?This addiction is a bitch to kick.

      • vivelaamo says:

        No I still have no position. I’m just commenting on how it just keeps going up, I’m done until we see a big drop now. My wife wants a new dream home and I can luckily oblige thanks to good old US of A. Just here on the blog for the fun and games now. How your shorts looking?

        • fotis2 says:

          The naz been trying to shake me but I’m not budging next week big Papa Bear is coming to town.

          • vivelaamo says:

            Fotis now I’m out the market I genuinely hope you are right. I’ve just seen this too many times since the crash. The Dow can keep going up a lot longer. In percentage terms it’s tiny but from a point perspective it’s big numbers.

            Anyway all the best. Hopefully everyone does well eventually. Bulls and Bears alike.

  4. Richard Glackin says:

    So, is the S&P just jiggin’ around or is that a whole series of 1-2’s to the downside?

  5. gary61b says:

    When you have to go to the bathroom to relieve yourself your Russian and when your done in the bathroom your finnish. What are you when your in the bathroom? Europeon 🙂

  6. Richard Glackin says:

    Can anyone tell me what happened to SilverWheaton (SLW) somewhere along the line it stopped trading?

    • Mary773 says:

      The symbol is now WPM.

    • Rick Jend says:

      The new name (Wheaton Precious Metals) reflects the transformation of Silver Wheaton from a largely silver-focused streaming company to a more diversified company, with the revenue from its gold streaming agreements now matching that from its silver streaming agreements. It’s now more like 50 -50. Four years ago it was 77% silver and 23% gold. So it’s no longer a pure silver play, but more silver and gold. Just an FYI…

  7. mjtplayer says:

    If the Dollar can hold today’s gains and close around here it will print a nice weekly bullish hammer candle

  8. vivelaamo says:

    DOW targets hit and RUT stopped out. No more positions now but if and when RUT gets to 1330 (maybe 1st week of September) it would be rude not to go long for 1600!

    Have a good weekend all!

  9. phil1247 says:


    …now looks headed to new bear market lows around 10 dollars

    as mentioned previously….
    gold probably has seen its bear market lows
    silver and miners probably have not

    • mjtplayer says:

      Looks like gold failed to get through the $1,280 area

      • phil1247 says:

        i took profits near 1277 yesterday
        at downtrend line that was forming from
        tuesday high
        sell first…ask questions later

        also EURO falling into extension long support now
        more of a two way street going forward probably
        and not the rocket blast upwards…
        sold half FXE yesterday..
        .. didnt like the overlapping… suspecting ending diagonal

        looks like sharp decline confirmed…..3 of 3 top ?

  10. my 2 cents. From 2460 we have 4 waves complete, waiting on the 5th to finish or fail

    2472-2492 were 1 = 5

    Best of luck

  11. Higher dollar should equal IWM outperformance–if memory serves.What year is it again?lol.

  12. Richard Glackin says:

    S&P…Wave 1 down?

  13. scottycj1 says:

    This 2485 resistance is turning out to be stronger than expected……it’s getting a lot of respect…….when we go up thru it, should be a very strong move northbound……….as a major Gann resistance….. should see a greater commitment to higher prices when it breaks.

  14. Richard Glackin says:

    Silver, There are two ways to count right now. First, from the peak of the last rally at 16.872 we bottomed in an ‘a’ wave at 16.434. Then, the ‘b’ wave ran up to 16.729. I’m assuming it is finished as, the internal count looks complete. Fibs for the ‘C’ wave down;
    100.0% 16.30
    138.2% 16.13
    150.0% 16.07
    161.8% 16.02
    200.0% 15.87

    [By the time I got around to posting this the ‘C’ wave down already exceeded the 100% fib where ‘C’ = ‘A’.] That was fast!

    Now even if we see the second method of counting silver play out, my guess is that we still see this retrace -but, it might represent the ‘A’ wave of the drop in the second method of counting silver…

    The OTHER count is based on a diagonal down starting at 18.725. We now have the last or, 5th wave down to go. Of course, in diagonals, each of the 5 waves is an ‘abc’.

    The projection targets the 14.50 area…depends on how long it takes to hit the descending support line for this diagonal.
    Good luck all.

  15. UPDATE 3: “Same procedure as all last week!” (See my last comment below.) – This time I had to work during the “pre-market games” (market forces pushing upwards) and could only take part in the “market hours games” (Big Boys pushing down):
    spx hourly futures –

  16. tommyboys says:

    AAII has more of the neutrals moving to bears… any “top” here will be short lived…

  17. pooch77 says:

    Yes I did,I had a change of trend Aug 3 ,which usually take effect following day.I also have change is trend on Mom &Tues.So Aahmichael my dilemma here is this cluster of crds marking a high on Wed,or is the crd on the 3rd good for 1 day and we turn lower into Wed next week.The cords are very accurate but you need to know to interpret them, not always easy

    • pooch77 says:

      Sorry reply to Aahmichael

      • pooch77 says:

        Tony need edit button,spell check keeps changing critical reversal date abbreviation to cord

    • aahmichael says:

      So, you have a change of trend that changes Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday? What kind of trend is that?

      • pooch77 says:

        No Thurs yesterday and Mon Tues,Mon Tue back to back normally mark a high or low on 2nd day or sometimes follow the 3rd day before a turn

        • pooch77 says:

          The turns on 3rd actually coincides with jobs bounce and back down Monday,we shall see Mon,might go either way

          • aahmichael says:

            I don’t see how an indicator like that could ever be useful, since you don’t know until well after the fact if the supposed trend change was at a top or a bottom.

            • pooch77 says:

              Use your charts and they are very effective when there bunched together use 1 or 2 hour time frames.RUT weak at open need close to 1% rally today

  18. opader says:


  19. 209,000.
    The jobs I mention that younger adults quit are $10-12 an hour jobs.They quit cashier at Kohls and go to the pet store or a store that has an outdoor flower area.The money never increases in these job switches.
    Today’s job report:entetainment and restaurants were huge hires.These jobs are not long term.They reported the ratio of jobs to population was 60%.Years ago it was 64%.More people of working age,DON’T!!!
    But i digress.The numbers fit the purpose of the Fed and stock market.Tighten and go up.Gold?I saw premarket GDX at 22.50.Probably more downside to go in light of this crappy “rally”we had from 21.Good luck all.

    • fotis2 says:

      To get a genuine picture of the real economy they should also have a no. of homeless people report at the same time now that would make Markets rock n roll.

  20. Don Jenver says:

    Greenspan warning about a bond bubble burst.

  21. vipulm555 says:

    Expected ES to rally and break 2480 overnite.
    Should give couple days

  22. pooch77 says:

    This could be a one day rally with a low due Wed.

  23. gary61b says:

    ES overhead levels 2477.5, 2478.75, 2480.5. 2 hour chart

  24. phil1247 says:

    es breakout of triangle

    2487 target
    YM breakout …. target 22229

  25. Zerohedge is predicting over 200,000 on NFP,based on the last 3 Julys.I still maintain the numbers of people hired for particular jobs–like the retail/food store I go to weekly–has massive turnover,and distort–on a national basis–the employment numbers.Teens and twentysomethings quit these jobs in droves after a week or two.More get hired to replace them.My old workplace (a large employer),since I took an early buyout 41/2 years ago,has gone to hiring and losing many people–from what I hear through the grapevine.Many cant take working the night shift or do not want to work weekends.I’d like to see a stat that shows how many people keep these jobs for a year or more.200,000 means very little to me in trying to gauge the economy.Later.

  26. Richard Glackin says:

    Silver, ‘a’, ‘b’…

  27. Richard Glackin says:

    It’s a gd triangle! Like most I’ve been sitting here going, “What the devil is going on with this market?!?” Then I backed off on the ES chart and there it was…sure ‘nough…a triangle. Now is when I wish I could post graphics. Regardless, most of you certainly know how to draw a triangle. From the peak (‘a’) then we touch ‘b’ at 2457.50, then ‘c’ at 2477.25, ‘d’ at 2463.25 next we should hit ‘e’ right around 2473 to 2473.5 and then we DROP. Good luck all.

  28. UPDATE: Early morning buy signal after consolidation. Today temporary upthrust from yesterday’s market cycle bottom.
    ndx hourly futures –

  29. Combo Ira and me analysis:
    S&P lost its bullish embedding.Has one day to get it back (Friday).Nas could lead lower.Crude lost the bullish embedding today.Dollar still dragging lower.Quite disappointing GDX can’t move up.Ira says gold over 1280 is a massive buy signal.10 d ema for GDX was about 22.54 last I remember.A sell below that.Euro had a target I mentioned of 120 (via other analysis).
    Equities are we certainly set up for a down day,but I’ll believe it when I see it.Good night all.

  30. stormchaser80llc says:

    Flat market, however beware that the Internals, Breadth and Participation, are well off of recent highs and have been pulling back. Today participation fell off across the board again. VIX finished higher, though remains in a hourly MACD SELL signal which is attempting a BUY signal shortly. The pattern could be a bull flag, so that’s something to watch, but for that to be valid I would like to see positive divergences where there are none.

    My proprietary cumulative Technicals Model made another All Time High today (barely), with its daily reading nearly zero. Neither SPX nor SPX A-D made a new ATH. Both my swing trade signals are bearish (7/28 and 7/31). SPX Weekly and Daily would support a major top at anytime due to long lasting negative divergences. Yet I am skeptical that the ATH on last Thursday with a Doji candle would have been THE TOP. Daily readings of my model are small but remain positive, while the SPX McClellan has been negative now 4 of the past 5 days.

    SPX Daily had a string of 7 real and 10 total Hindenburg Omens since late May. Be careful this run-up as it may be the last before a BIG turn lower. I say this as my proprietary Technicals Model made its 8th negative divergence vs. SPX since mid-April, and the first one of its kind since 3 positive divergences since late June. Yet another higher high in SPX is still possible to once again negatively diverge with my model, but you can clearly see that the technical indicators on SPX stocks are weakening quickly.

    Been calling this Oil rally pretty well. Got the pullback that I warned about. Give it a few days, and I think a new high forms in oil to put in widespread negative divergences.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site ( However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

    • torehund says:

      Nobody knows and the man in charge is playing golf🎶 We are entering the age of the fall af authorities, they are clueles. Let the waves decide🔚

      • fionamargaret says:

        I think the words to this song are in Swedish, so you can sing-a-long, yes?
        How are the waves? ,
        There was a gentleman on Bloomberg today suggesting the $US was going to go down for a decade…really….and Schiller was suggesting my pick from a couple of days ago…Mr. Boring…TMF…not so boring today..x

        • torehund says:

          It has been like starting anew. If you Dont surf regularly, so many bits and pieces have to be reinvented. Good sunsets and small town very friendly atmosphere here in Puerto Chicama. Going back in time, to when it was better🌝 About markts: Bull biotech, Rut and the major indices, and Bull on USD. This euro rally is flipping the P-III button, from there its all about the US, and a rate hike when indices go bigger than what Yellen can handle.

  31. Thanks Tony. Little to offer other than in recent days I believe the market has been confined to fibonacci levels and a descending, converging wedge. Breaking above 2477 is key to any move up.

  32. fenster6 says:

    ” A case can be made for either direction.” I think that is the case everyday Tony …no?

  33. Everyone on the same page, short 2468 long 2480 maybe we get a 1 percent move tomorrow

  34. mjtplayer says:

    Treasuries via TLT looking bullish, 2.0% 10yr anyone?

  35. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $ES at

    • bfquant says:

      Bouraq, yes. But, in my view, they also like to headfake via a trendline trap on the big obvious patterns that come to an apex such as this one. Sometimes even a double fake. Time spent above/below trend is also important to the extent return potential isn’t cannibalized.

    • Page says:

      Huge upside tomorrow.

      • vivelaamo says:

        I agree. Still squeezing shorts.

        I had no idea you were an elderly lady. If I had known I wouldn’t have been disrespectful. Apologies. Take care and trade safe.

  36. Bud Fox says:

    Thank You, Tony C….to your heath, may it be better than the day before….

  37. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.

  38. pooch77 says:

    Up until next Wed

  39. bfquant says:

    Tony. By eventual “support”, you mean this could also act as support after a potential C down followed by new highs and a retest of this level?

    • tony caldaro says:

      or after a breakout without a C

      • bfquant says:

        indeed. Crazy thing is, look at RUT, Transports, Semiconductors. All “look” to be in non-objective, non-quantified downtrends. I wish I knew if they were in “quantified” downtrends, because, if they were, I would have more confidence in the shorter term bear count.

        • captbara says:

          Easy. Just draw some trend lines and you will find out.

        • torehund says:

          I Dont agree with Rut being in a downtrend, macd is positive on both daily and weekly. Big declines very seldom happens from such parameters, and if indeed the real bear is underway, there will be ample opportunities to bail before it enters ugly territory.

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