SHORT TERM: higher open then pullback, DOW +52
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP was reported lower. The market opened at SPX 2480 and immediately began to pullback. The pullback continued until 11am when the SPX hit 2465. After that it started to rebound. The rally lasted in the last hour of trading when the SPX hot 2478 and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.15%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude rose 30 cents, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Tomorrow: jobless claims at 8:30, then ISM services and factory orders at 10am.
The market opened higher today for the 5th time in the past 6 days. And each of those 5 times that was the high for the day, and the market pulled back soon after the open. Even though the SPX traded within the OEW 2479 pivot range for the 11th day in a row, and the DOW made all-time new highs for the 6th day in a row, it happened yet again. Recently one of the SPX sectors we track, the XLI has confirmed a downtrend. Since this is the SPX’s industrial sector it may suggest the DOW, despite the new highs, is loosing upside momentum. If the DOW tops the entire market is likely to head lower in a C wave, of Int. iv, downtrend. Should this come to pass all four major indices will then be realigned, and a retest of SPX 2400+ is likely. Short term support is at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Short term momentum hit oversold during today’s pullback, then rebounded above neutral. Best to your trading this choppy market.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend