Monday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then pullback, DOW +61

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.3%. FED vice chair Fischer released a speech right before the open: The market opened at SPX 2477, five points above Friday’s close. Ticked up to SPX 2478, and then started to pullback. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower, then at 10am pending home sales were reported higher. By 11am the SPX hit 2469 and then started to work its was higher. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2475, then dipped to close at 2470.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.45%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude rose 55 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Tomorrow: personal income/spending and the CPI at 8:30; then construction spending, auto sales and ISM manufacturing by 10am.

The market opened higher today, rallied to within one point of the 2479 pivot, and then pulled back. For the past 9 trading days the market has traded within the OEW 2479 pivot range, (2472-2486), without once breaking through. Meanwhile the DOW has made all-time new highs during the last four of those trading days. The DOW is clearly supporting the general market, and the NDX/NAZ remain somewhat weak, while the SPX struggles in between. Short term counts remain unchanged, one impulsive the other corrective. SPX 2484 remains the key level upwards, and it appears SPX 2432 the key level downwards. Short term support is at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day below neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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122 Responses to Monday update

  1. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Frankly I wouldn’t be shocked if we went to 2700 on the S&P without any meaningful pullback. BOTS are in control, and retail is so tragically conditioned to buying any dip whatsoever. How ridiculous were valuations beginning of 99? Then the S&P went up another 35% from there before it peaked. Go look at the valuations of things like CAT or CVX. They are at absurd valuations historically. ABSURD! It doesn’t matter. The dumb dumbs and the computers see “earnings beat” and they buy like mad. The market trades like a ghost town. Its beyond stupid and so who says it cant get atmospheric stupid. I think counts are utterly of no worth whatsoever. When it finally goes down then you can say its going down. Its about that simple


  2. torehund says:

    …market and everything around it getting into the Zone.


  3. ariez5 says:

    I think you have an excellent case about the odds increasing for war, and I did not think you were routing for it in making the observation. Neither am I in noticing that war would also be just about the only thing that will succeed at distracting from the Russia investigation and impending impeachment trial.

    Tony, in 2015 the US Military budget was $598 billion, and we had special operations forces in 135 countries. Under no definition in the English language does that qualify as “ignored.”


    • fotis2 says:

      The US is the world’s policeman and they’re doing an excellent job.


    • JK1987 says:

      cnbc senior columnist just published an essay, titled “Trump and the GOP are heading for war.”
      But that’s a different war.
      I think Syria airstrike and lots other efforts are to distract the Russia investigation. Will be more distraction to fake when the matter intensified.
      The ultimate distraction will be an all out war.
      45 wants power not step down.


    • fbender7 says:

      There will be no impeachment trial. And the only Russian collusion to be investigated involves the Clintons. Military action may happen but there is no hidden agenda there on the part of the Trump administration.


  4. frommi2 says:

    Current state of SPY:

    I expect the current wave 2 to end tomorrow with a swift downmove, but we probably kill some stop-losses above todays highs first. Looks like wave 2 will be a flat with wave c as an EDT.


  5. I think apple is going to cause the market to drop tomorrow, A big gap followed by a red close would just be a nasty setup


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