Monday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then pullback, DOW +61

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.3%. FED vice chair Fischer released a speech right before the open: The market opened at SPX 2477, five points above Friday’s close. Ticked up to SPX 2478, and then started to pullback. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower, then at 10am pending home sales were reported higher. By 11am the SPX hit 2469 and then started to work its was higher. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2475, then dipped to close at 2470.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.45%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude rose 55 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Tomorrow: personal income/spending and the CPI at 8:30; then construction spending, auto sales and ISM manufacturing by 10am.

The market opened higher today, rallied to within one point of the 2479 pivot, and then pulled back. For the past 9 trading days the market has traded within the OEW 2479 pivot range, (2472-2486), without once breaking through. Meanwhile the DOW has made all-time new highs during the last four of those trading days. The DOW is clearly supporting the general market, and the NDX/NAZ remain somewhat weak, while the SPX struggles in between. Short term counts remain unchanged, one impulsive the other corrective. SPX 2484 remains the key level upwards, and it appears SPX 2432 the key level downwards. Short term support is at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day below neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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122 Responses to Monday update

  1. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Frankly I wouldn’t be shocked if we went to 2700 on the S&P without any meaningful pullback. BOTS are in control, and retail is so tragically conditioned to buying any dip whatsoever. How ridiculous were valuations beginning of 99? Then the S&P went up another 35% from there before it peaked. Go look at the valuations of things like CAT or CVX. They are at absurd valuations historically. ABSURD! It doesn’t matter. The dumb dumbs and the computers see “earnings beat” and they buy like mad. The market trades like a ghost town. Its beyond stupid and so who says it cant get atmospheric stupid. I think counts are utterly of no worth whatsoever. When it finally goes down then you can say its going down. Its about that simple

  2. torehund says:

    …market and everything around it getting into the Zone.

  3. ariez5 says:

    I think you have an excellent case about the odds increasing for war, and I did not think you were routing for it in making the observation. Neither am I in noticing that war would also be just about the only thing that will succeed at distracting from the Russia investigation and impending impeachment trial.

    Tony, in 2015 the US Military budget was $598 billion, and we had special operations forces in 135 countries. Under no definition in the English language does that qualify as “ignored.”

    • fotis2 says:

      The US is the world’s policeman and they’re doing an excellent job.

    • JK1987 says:

      cnbc senior columnist just published an essay, titled “Trump and the GOP are heading for war.”
      But that’s a different war.
      I think Syria airstrike and lots other efforts are to distract the Russia investigation. Will be more distraction to fake when the matter intensified.
      The ultimate distraction will be an all out war.
      45 wants power not step down.

    • fbender7 says:

      There will be no impeachment trial. And the only Russian collusion to be investigated involves the Clintons. Military action may happen but there is no hidden agenda there on the part of the Trump administration.

  4. frommi2 says:

    Current state of SPY:

    I expect the current wave 2 to end tomorrow with a swift downmove, but we probably kill some stop-losses above todays highs first. Looks like wave 2 will be a flat with wave c as an EDT.

  5. I think apple is going to cause the market to drop tomorrow, A big gap followed by a red close would just be a nasty setup

  6. Peter Sliney says:

    Transports looking weak and the Dow up 90+??? Interesting.

  7. stockop says:

    interesting crossroads for oil. might be about to rocket higher. looks like a c wave down to me

  8. purplember says:

    phil is there a target for CL or short entry / hwb point ?

    • phil1247 says:

      extension long failed after 50.30 resisted
      but i have not looked at it closely since i took profits on longs yesterday
      i would rather wait for the dust to settle after oil inventories
      before i get involved purp

      remember…if the short completes target is 38 ish
      no rush to short

  9. probably just a bear trap to get more shorts to cover and squeeze higher

  10. gary61b says:

    If we get a push up from here then maybe this is E….2464 is still my line in the sand..

  11. Page says:

    WTI run to the upside is over. Big time short.

  12. captbara says:

    DAX, yummy. Did you buy Vive?

  13. phil1247 says:


    last one ………….

    cycle low due friday was spot on !
    if bonds have bottomed …..have stocks topped ?
    oh…..never mind… thats a correlation.. 🙂

    see ya !

  14. purplember says:

    CL part of me wonders if $42 is the low for 2017 and beyond.

  15. phil1247 says:


    gold has moment of truth at 1281
    resistance and targets lie here
    failure is not an option
    tight leash on all longs now
    1339 target in sight if 1281 can be surpassed

    • mjtplayer says:

      Gold futures positioning would suggest yes, a break higher, silver too. Both are indicative of what you’d see at a low, not a high.

      Oil is just the opposite, heavily long positioned. Top was yesterday on end of month shenanigans, now in collapse. $40 by Labor Day

  16. allen1929 says:

    Has the nyse ADL confirmed the dows highs?

  17. JK1987 says:

    Korean War II is due in weeks?

    Dow has the exactly the same pattern as pre-Korean War I:
    After a correction bottom in 1949 (primary II?), Dow rallied 30% and reached a high just two weeks before Korean War I started.
    Then took a brief three weeks shallow correction (major ii?)
    Then resume multi-years strong rally for major iii (more than double).

    Boeing and defense stocks spells “WAR”.
    A Korean War is good for APPLE as the biggest competitor Samsung will be out.

    • JK1987 says:

      How to achieve Trump’s 3% or more growth?

      If earnings has plateaued.
      If reforms cannot be achieved.
      A war is the best growth machine.
      US has been the biggest beneficiary for all the wars, including War War I.

      • I would vastly prefer a recession to a war, and you should too. Why would a person be so reckless as to cheerlead for unecessary bloodshed?

        • tony caldaro says:

          bears will be bears

        • JK1987 says:

          Just reading the Boeing development and war chart analogy, not cheerleading. I am not the president, do not have the power. I am seeing a pattern of the “power” like fighting.
          Not many American life will be sacrificed, just throwing bombs with war machines.

          Another observation: new chief “general” Kelly is a sign of preparing for the war administration?

          • That was my first thought with Kelly.Nasdaq having a difficult time staying above the flatline.Keep an eye on that one.Later.

          • tony caldaro says:

            After 8 years of totally ignoring the military, it is now building back up.
            Why do you think Boeing and Lockheed are zooming?
            Un may be an idiot and an egotistical maniac.
            But he knows if he strikes any country he dies.
            Dictators want power not death.

            • H D says:

              8 years of ignoring the military **alternative facts- Bringing them home and not sending them to war is anything but ignoring them. Also less expensive. JMHO

            • Your lack of objectivity is shocking, particularly from a person who promotes a supposedly ‘objective’ market tracking system.

  18. fionamargaret says:

    My sequence said oil up to 55….so UWT up…
    UGAZ is muddy around here, but have gone long..

  19. pooch77 says:

    So much for small caps, futes,were 7 points,and looks to be red immeniently

  20. phil1247 says:



    nice reaction at short entry of 50.30
    was good place to exit longs

    …. now looking for short entry again

    dont want to see 50.30 surpassed again

  21. pooch77 says:

    Will apple crater naz?

  22. pooch77 says:

    Dow ripping up but my large cap funds are not

  23. vipulm555 says:

    As promised DOW above 22000
    SPX should follow soon … 2500

  24. gary61b says:

    ES did make the E wave last night. If spx reaches 2464, I think C has started. I missed the ES top do to sleep but would like a push up to 2475 ES and reverse. Let the market prove it.

    • gary61b says:

      Viewing spx chart 60 minute, if a E wave comes about upper resistance will be at the 2480 level at the open. so the question is spx no E wave, just abc and down or E wave at open then down or no B wave… 5 minutes and counting

  25. phil1247 says:


    melt up continues
    wave 3 is 1.618 wave 1 at 22076

    or DOW 22136

  26. mcgcapital says:

    Short FTSE below 7440 looking for 7200. Most of the big earnings are done now and we’re selling off every rally. Just a matter of time before it gives way now

    • vivelaamo says:

      Suprised at how close FTSE is trading to 200 daily average. Been so focused on US strength haven’t looked at Europe for a while. FTSE looks weak.

      • mcgcapital says:

        Yeah so does Dax. Since the early July low the price activity hasn’t been bullish as none of the rallies are holding. But still a nuisance to short as dips being bought too. Everything waiting for the Dow to top out, rally looks quite narrow now

      • tommyboys says:

        Indices love to go back and tag their 200s periodically from BOTH sides. Don’t like to wander too far for too long. If FTSE tests successfully will be strongly bullish for that index – and I think it will.

    • CampFreddie says:

      Mcg – Shorting FTse again … Jeez, take your head out of the blender once in a while.

  27. Richard Glackin says:

    I must admit that I am disappointed that we have not seen a ‘c’ wave down from the 2475 peak. The drop from there ended at 2465.25 and immediately gave us an impulsive looking 5 waves up to 2477.25. While it is still possible that that was the ‘c’ of ‘B’, it is looking less likely that we get a ‘c’ wave down from here. For sure, if we see a small retrace and then exceed 2477.25…no ‘c’ wave down. Watching and waiting.

  28. ew1234 says:

    Short dax from 12.780
    Short oil 51.6 Bent under water
    Shorting es 2474 and dow 21.940

    • vivelaamo says:

      What’s your stop on US indices if you don’t mind me asking?

      • ew1234 says:

        I dont now Where the top is. But think it is good risk/reward to try the short side now.

        I will put Stoploss on the trade when the week is over.

        If i stop out I will write it her.

        My currently positions:
        Dax 12780, leverage 15
        Bent oil 51.6 leverage 5
        S&P 500 2474, plain
        DOW 21940, plain

    • vivelaamo says:

      Last post of the day already. Even I’m pretty suprised by the move on the DOW. If this isn’t some kind of wave 3 then I don’t know what it is. I also find it amusing that certain posters think it’s clever to tell people to go long when they short. But indices continue up! Sometimes you can be too clever for your own good.

      Have a good day all. Stay safe.

  29. JK 187;
    Si vis pacem, para bellum.

  30. Couple options here. 2476 could be an E wave high, futures stoped there. Blat thru that would be a 5th wave targeting 2500 or this is even more bullish and minute 3 to 2533 or higher with minute 4 down and minute 5 to 2600. Didn’t think it was possible but maybe. I’m looking for a blow off move to 2500, but damn this maybe even more bullish then I thought.

    Good night and good luck all

  31. Most first of the months are positive for equities–usually in a decent percentage move (.50% minimum).Ira says SPX and DOW still embedded bullishly.I say,gold and GDX are perhaps the worst acting embedded areas of investing you could see.It almost seems like gold can’t wait for the dollar to unembed from its bearish pattern,so it can sell off 10%.I know its moved up $70,but without any energy at all.Like pulling elephant teeth–and GDX is even worse.Let’s see if the daily SPX -div is another buy signal.Why not?The Fed is in total control.Good luck all.

    • tommyboys says:

      Trannies to me look ready to rock. Oversold & pos div whil defense/airlines/Boeing movingup quick.

  32. Thanks Tony. Enjoy your night.

  33. UPDATE 2: This rally is just beginning –
    ndx futures hourly –

  34. torehund says:

    Tony and all, have you noticed the SSEC is starting to rise after years of flatlining. Lots of potential energy stored in such a pattern. Could finally run in earnest.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Both videos speak of love.
      Brendel describes Beethoven’s Sonata beautifully, capturing endearment and passion in all its complexity and simplicity. I do like Brendel, maybe because when asked about his piano playing (a goodly amount self-taught), said “It is the only thing I can do, so that is what I do”. I feel like just hugging him….x

    • as Raymond james say, Buy the short dips and let her rip, not sure I believe it, but it works

  35. UPDATE: A thunderstorm awakened me in the middle of the night and I discovered the markets were in a “stealth breakout”, outwitting the massive bears:
    spx hourly futures –

  36. Futures ripping higher.

  37. vipulm555 says:

    Dow futures already making roads for fabulous August

    Continuation of Trend, SPX and NAsdaq should join new highs later this week.

    Cheers! Smartz!!!

  38. stormchaser80llc says:

    Little changes in price today for SPX. No new All Time High for SPX today, nor its A-D line. My proprietary Technicals Model however did make a new ATH. Today my second swing trading signal went BEARISH, so both are negative for the market. Is it a whip-saw before one more high? We’ll see. SPX McClellan made a negative print for the second day in a row.

    SPX Weekly and Daily would support a major top at anytime due to long lasting negative divergences. Yet I am skeptical that the ATH on last Thursday with a Doji candle would have been THE TOP. The SPX hourly chart has been recovering from the drop midday Thursday, one that came a few days after I had been expecting it. At today’s highs, the ADX +DI and MACD histogram diverged negatively. A minor pullback is likely, before another high is put in place to create negative divergences for the remaining indicators.

    VIX finished slightly lower, putting in an hourly MACD SELL signal.

    SPX Daily had a string of 7 real and 10 total Hindenburg Omens since late May. Be careful this run-up as it may be the last before a BIG turn lower. I say this as my proprietary Technicals Model made its 8th negative divergence vs. SPX since mid-April, and the first one of its kind since 3 positive divergences since late June. Yet another higher high in SPX is still possible to once again negatively diverge with my model, but you can clearly see that the technical indicators on SPX stocks are weakening quickly.

    Internals, Breadth and Participation, well off of recent highs, have been pulling back.

    Been calling this Oil rally pretty well. Another strong day, closing above its 200 dma for the second day in a row, last doing so on May 24 2017, as well as closing above its Bollinger Band. Only negative divergence seen on the hourly chart is MACD histogram, so new highs are ahead more likely than not. A brief pullback is possible due to this negative divergence and today’s daily candle finishing off the highs looking more indecisive.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site ( However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

  39. Richard Glackin says:

    The pattern in Silver is becoming clearer. It’s looking like a very large scale 1-2 starting with the low of 13.62 back on 12/13/2015. That silver rally ran to 21.21 on 7/3/2016. That was a $7.59 run. Since then the wave 2 retrace (an ‘abc’) is now nearing completion. We have an ‘a’ wave down to 15.82, a ‘b’ wave up to 18.72 and now the ‘c’ wave appears to be a diagonal down with 4 of 5 waves completed. 5th wave down to go.

    I would like to point out that the very long time for silver to complete a 1-2, roughly two years is rather typical as, contrary to many prognosticators, silver always starts slow. Silver gradually accelerates until its peak wherein it moves very fast getting to the high. Once wave 2 completes, we can expect the price of silver to very gradually move up faster and faster throughout the course of wave 3. Assuming this is a wave 2, we can expect the price of silver to remain above the prior low at 13.62. Currently at 16.82 one more wave down will be a very deep retrace…which is a very nice buying opportunity. If the 5th wave down equals wave 1, the target is $14.20. That’s a really good price for an investment that is expected to outpace gold in percentage – by far. I have no reason to doubt that. Note well the gold bugs (and silver bugs for that matter) have been pronouncing a rip your face off move after the metals bottomed in 2015. I’ve never bought into that as silver has NEVER…NEVER launched with a vigorous move up. Silver has ALWAYS started slow and gradually accelerated. Therefore, Silver should be a very good long term investment with this very deep retrace. I am expecting sizeable gains over the next couple of years. Gains that far exceed Gold and most stocks for that matter in percentage of move.

    That last, 5th wave down to about $14.20 should take to about the end of the month or perhaps as late as the first week in September. And so, there is plenty of time to consider the merit of such an investment. Good luck to all.

    • Tarun Varma says:

      Very interesting and seems like a reasonable past count & future outlook. $PLAT is doing exactly the same. However $GOLD is not “fitting” into that view.

      • Richard Glackin says:

        Gold and Silver have a ‘relationship’ but I would be hard pressed to use the term correlation. As the saying goes, things correlate until they don’t. I’ve never used correlations in a trading context. Nevertheless, both metals peaked in 2011 and both put in a low the end of 2015 (presumed bottom). I wouldn’t go much farther in comparing them. I see them as completely separate entities.

    • Hi Richard, thanks for sharing your helpful insight. Could it be possible that Silver has already completed wave 2 like in April 2003?

      • Richard Glackin says:

        That was…there was also a higher level wave 2 in Sept 2008 and in that time frame is an excellent example of how silver typically performs. If you are looking at a curve over that time frame look at the slope from Sept 2008 to Dec 2010 (wave 3). Notice the acceleration during that wave 3 and through wave 5 ending March of 2011.

        Of course, we are now in a different era. We’ve seen a huge pullback over a long period of time since March of 2011. Is it possible that silver hasn’t yet bottomed? Sure, it is ‘possible’. But it is more likely that we are soon starting a new uptrend. And, because of the “slow starting” and later accelerating nature of silver you certainly have the opportunity to wait and see.

  40. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #EURUSD at

  41. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. The DOW is relentless. Even more so than 2013-14!

    Have a good evening all.

  42. phil1247 says:



    finally the 50.30 short has traded.
    24 cents was way too big of a front run as suspected at 50.06 we need to see if it resists
    still would need to see 48.63 fail ( ext long ) to consider shorting
    but i am happy to unload UWT here…

    target is 38.42 if the short completes

    • EL MATADOR says:

      CL is embedded so no 38ish….IMO, won’t be surprise to see 62-68ish minimum going into Labor Day

    • mjtplayer says:

      My target is $40, but I’ll bail on shorts around $42; stop on a close above $51.97

      Interesting afternoon rally on end of month window dressing/positioning, let’s see how oil trades over the next 48 hours, with month-end behind us and inventories being reported tomorrow evening and Wed morning.

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