Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +100

Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher and gained 0.7%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher. The market gapped up to SPX 2479, a new high, ticked up to 2480, then dipped to 2475 by 10am. At 10am consumer confidence was reported higher. Then the market started to drift up ahead of the MTP vote. At noon the SPX hit 2481, then pulled back to close at 2477.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 19 ticks, Crude rose $1.55, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Tomorrow: new home sales at 10am, then the FOMC statement at 2pm.

The market gapped up at the open, hit a new all-time high, dipped, and then made a marginal higher high. While it was an impressive, earnings driven, open the market did not have the strength to clear the OEW 2479 pivot range, despite the affirmative MTP vote in the afternoon. Nevertheless, we now have 5 waves up on the very short-term count and still just 3 waves up on the short-term count. Looks like the market is waiting for another catalyst. FOMC tomorrow, and Q2 GDP Friday. Short term support remains at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Short term momentum was quite overbought at today’s highs. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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128 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. ohmtoom says:

    Tomorrow might be the last day of the rally – likely to terminate in the 2485 zone. This might mark the end of the entire up move.


  2. ohmtoom says:

    Probably a good time to go long on the S&P (2474.5) with stops @ 2472 – might get a rally close to 2482 zone.


  3. vivelaamo says:

    Page we are in the 8s Vix now and still 3 days of the month to go for carnage. Very unlikely but you never know.


  4. kingfrogcash says:

    a big bet FB falls – $FB 160 Calls SELLING Activity expiring on 28th Jul, Vol 1999 posted at 3:16pm today for $6.68 and FB PPS $165.xx


  5. looks like buy the close and gap up tomorrow. more up to go.


  6. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Fiona (and any other gold bulls right now) ………….

    I have a big position in GDXJ (and GDX but to a lesser degree) and all I can see from a TA standpoint is a wedge from a daily and weekly time frame (on GDXJ) and its been hugging the top trend line for the last five or six days (not to mention this is the fourth time it has hit the top line since January and the fourth touch is notorious for a follow through breakout). We have seen many false breakouts in the miners but I’m hoping an explosion occurs in the imminent future (this of course should coincide with a general market sell-off). Any other thoughts to share on this on things you see or calculate aside from your target of 43??


  7. mcgcapital says:


    Interesting piece from Northy on the structural issues. Would be interested to hear thoughts from those who are long term bullish on how we resolve these issues without a major market correction


    • More importantly, we have even greater levels of repackaged derivatives today than we did in 2008, as well as record-high margin debt. These and many other factors, in my view, do not align with the notion that we are in the early stages of an unprecedented economic expansion.


  8. pooch77 says:

    Ouch small caps tanking,so much for $61 tna


  9. pooch77 says:

    Trannies and Rut not happy


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