Thursday update

SHORT TERM: new highs then pullback, DOW -29

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2% as well. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 the Philly FED was reported lower, as was unemployment claims. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 2474 close, ticked up to 2478, then began to pullback. At 10am leading indicators were reported higher. By 10:30 the SPX hit 2468, then began to work its way higher. At 11am the SPX hit 2476, dipped to 2470 by 11:30, then hit 2477 at 3:30. A pullback to SPX 2473 ended the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.05%. Bonds were flat, Crude slipped 45 cents, Gold added $2 , and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Tomorrow is options expiration.

The market opened at new all-time highs again today, then pulled back 10 points in the first hour of trading. After that the market worked its way close to the highs for the day. The pullback was not enough to be quantified on either of our short term counts. We remain with 5 waves up on our very-short term count, and three waves on the short-term count. While we did see a 10-point swing intraday, it did not look like an options expiration event. Possibly more volatility tomorrow. Short term support remains at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day at neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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71 Responses to Thursday update

  1. torehund says:

    Good weekend Tony and all.
    My stance remains the same, Rut/Naz, Biotech and Dry-bulk.

  2. Phil, I love reading your comments. I am learning quite a bit from this blog!

  3. Thinking the YM is about to turn south again from the 21520 area. Am I wrong about this?

    • fotis2 says:

      fotis2 says:
      July 14, 2017 at 5:52 am

      Gold short/medium term looks leg up 1250s?Looking for a possible reversal there lets see.

      • phil1247 says:

        nice call fotis

        gc in extension longs …..hint hint …….the place to be
        above 100d sma
        bullish above 1248.3 ext long .618 support at this moment
        which is just above my downtrend line
        i am holding long until ext long fails

  4. Page says:

    Lots of hiring firing going on in WH. I just saw WH photo with 2 doors (Enter and Exit), Spicer gone now next in line is Attorney General and Market doesn’t give damn 😀

  5. phil1247 says:


    i hope you see why i am constantly looking to trade extensions

    /CL is in extensions now and the profits are racking up fast
    plus you know exactly where you are
    and breaking the extension tells you to
    at least take some money off the table

    why get involved in chop ?

    also EURO still in extensions
    . and you see what a rocket blast upwards that is now ?
    have a great weekend buddy !

    • phil1247 says:

      one last one
      es looks just like euro yesterday
      ext failed but fell to traditional support and rocketed up
      i am long spxl

  6. Well so far,all the bullishly embedded charts on equities seem to be doing the job.GDX above Avi’s breakout number of 22.60 MIGHT(with the bullish COT charts)get that going.Goldfingers crossed.Later all..

  7. gary61b says:

    ES, with a push up to 2469 first then down to 2446 as a bottom, below that and C might be considered..

  8. mjtplayer says:

    In all my years of trading, I’ve never seen a more complacent market. There is absolutely no fear.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Even more bullish than 2013?

      • mjtplayer says:

        There’s a difference between “bullish” and “complacent”, but yes.

        Only recent comparison would be 2006

        • mjtplayer says:

          This market is similar to 2015 too, big rally from an Oct drop the prior year into Q1, then 5 months of sideways trading with a higher bias, low volatility and a very tight range

          • stcoleridge says:

            That 2015 comparison resonates with me. The market rallied in July on the big tech earnings (check out NDX) and then stopped in its tracks come early August. I seem to remember the Vix hit 53 later that month as the market proved it could not cope with the ETF risk parity inspired forced selling. I remember on that fateful Monday morning they wouldn’t open the Spx at the futures implied level for fear of the damage it would cause. I wonder how much risk parity AUM has grown since then?

            • vivelaamo says:

              2015 had larger pull backs though and trading above and below the 100 Daily sma throughout the year. I think this year we haven’t touched it once and been a lot higher than the 200 too. I appriecate that’s because of how parabolic the trump rally but the bull has been relentless. A sharp pb must be due right?

              • stcoleridge says:

                Well in that case 2017 is even more complacent, sorry bullish, than 2013 because even back then the SPX had 3 decent pullbacks below the weekly 13 ema. This year it hasn’t had any.

              • vivelaamo says:

                Is there a rule that there has to be one?

      • vivelaamo says:

        You set up a new userid just to insult me? I’m flattered.

        You know nothing about me whoever you are. I wish I was that guy you speak of. I could have retired by now.

    • tommyboys says:

      Sign of a true bull which we hadn’t had for two decades – mid 90s. Is why we have chronic top picking for years as everyone conditioned to volatility as “normal”. Newb’s been picking tops monthly for 5 years – beautiful. Bull will run for longer than most expect – especially with constant top calling.

    • NEWBIE says:

      The federal reserve’s trading desk is making sure that the market remains complacent and they are doing a hell of a job of keeping the Vix down

  9. phil1247 says:


    1.17 is next

    sky is the limit

    until 1.1618 fails … ( the extension long support .618 level)

  10. stcoleridge says:

    DAX getting sold off on the German auto cartel report. c=a at 12041.

  11. fotis2 says:

    Vive….. Big,big thank you buddy!!!

  12. Page says:

    My short term target for WTI is $50-$52.

  13. phil1247 says:



    trip down to 39.90 target looks to have started
    possible extension shorts in play on 15 min
    if 46.64 cant be broken above
    bottom could fall out now
    in any case i dont want to see 47 .31 traded above again until
    39.90 target is hit

    good luck buddy!

  14. vipulm555 says:

    Bull market is for smart’s, vix 100 is falling long way to go

  15. vivelaamo says:

    Tony once we are about 2479 today or Next week does 2525 become next target?

  16. Richard Glackin says:

    This 4th down and then one more 5 up and we should be done.

  17. I bought 5000 shares of PRDMX (T Rowe Price Mid Cap Growth) on Tues July 18 for my Rollover IRA at 27.87. It is up about 5/8 of a percent since then. I like my positions to move up some soon after I buy them so I don’t have to endure the stress of being under water, which negatively affects my decision making process even after the item starts developing some buoyancy.

  18. stormchaser80llc says:

    Markets were quiet today, so my trading signals which turned BULLISH on 7/12/2017 continue to be BULLISH. SPX looks to be in a W5 higher (likely 2 of 5), making new All time Highs earlier in the day along with its A-D line, and not to mention my Cumulative Technicals Model. This is after a string of 7 real and 10 total Hindenburg Omens since late May. Be careful this run-up as it may be the last before a BIG turn lower. I say this as my proprietary Technicals Model made its 8th negative divergence vs. SPX since mid-April, and the first one of its kind since 3 positive divergences since late June. VIX is on an hourly SELL MACD signal with little direction due to a very low ADX.

    Internals, Breadth and Participation have come back to life as one would expect, only well well off their peaks. This gravy train WILL NOT go on forever. Yield curve starting to turn lower, as deflation risks come back to the table after a several week reprieve. Oil’s new July high occured today as expected, expect a little weakness before a new Oil July high.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site ( However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

  19. Bear flag eliminated on FTSE as it breaks UP!!!Lol.Those ECB guys are as good as Yellen in breaking bear patterns.Amazing stuff.

  20. Thanks Tony. With a spread of around $2.50 between ES and cash, the market in early morning trading rejected SPX 2478.75 and during regular trading hours rejected 2477.75 clearly suggesting the market is keenly aware of this vital pivot. While still expecting weakness in August, tomorrow and the following week (s) should be interesting and likely marked by (1) increased volatility but there is nothing in VIX at the moment to support this view and (2) attempts to put in higher highs. We may see softness tomorrow:

    Short-Term Market Outlook

    5-day charts (1 bar = 5 minutes) with a 20-period SBV are showing declining SBV oscillator readings at session’s end. Negative money flow on this chart would suggest the possibility of negative trading tomorrow after the market open. 15-day charts (1 bar = 15 minutes) with a SBV(16) are showing negative money flow (declining SBV) as well, thus confirming 5-day chart’s outlook. 30-day charts (1 bar = 30 minutes) with a 13-period SBV are showing flat SBV readings at this moment. This would suggest uncertain sentiment on this charts. However, the most recent bullish volume accumulation (green SBV areas) would confirm outlook derived from 5- and 15-day charts. We would continue monitoring this chart for clearer SBV direction, as it may define next trading session’s sentiment.

  21. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $RUT at

    • bfquant says:

      Bouraq.. Serious tension there! Key will be the retracement after it breaks out( if it breaks out). A classic pullback and resumuption North would be hyper-bullish, while a “spiky” failure that comes back in would usually be the reverse. This setup, in my experience, has very little “in-betweens”. What makes this especially interesting is the coincidence of Tony’s pivot right here (determining if B must be eliminated in SPX)

      • bouraq says:

        Thanks bf. I agree this is a very critical level here. It was rejected once again on Friday. We will see if it can break through next week.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Very nice chart. Thanks for that.

      Seems to be stuttering here. Darkness who has a good record switched from long to short. I would prefer to wait for shorter term trendline to break.

  22. EL MATADOR says:

    my 2c, mañana we should see a hit to
    24(77) – (21) = 2456 pivot…..close enough to 24(55) fib

  23. Short term drop in morning was due to Mueller’s expanding inquiry into Trump’s businesses. Seems like a lot of drops have been on politcia newsl: comey news, Don Jr email release and today’s Mueller news.

  24. llerias7 says:

    Thanks, TC. Can you elaborate a bit abut the USD fate? n your chart I see a green SC…meaning a long downhill for the USD going forward? Keeps dificult to invest in many assets that way (I live at eurozone).

    • tony caldaro says:

      We think the 6-year bull market in the USD ended in January.
      Bull markets all around for other currencies

      • torehund says:

        All currencies are Titanics, so maybe no change and everyone, everywhere buy stocks. This Central bank equal printing to keep currencies even has to piggy back in an unexpected manner, P-III is the lump of ice nobody saw and will crush all fiats. Hyperinflation on a global scale ?

      • Tony, does that have any implications for US stocks? Due to exchange rates, or corporate profits, or ??

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