Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open – new highs, DOW +66

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5% as well. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 both housing starts and building permits were reported higher. The market opened 4 points above yesterday’s SPX 2461 close, and continued to make new all-time highs. After a small 4 point dip after 10am, the rally continued into the afternoon. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2474 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.60%. Bonds slipped 2 ticks, Crude rose 70 cents, Gold dipped $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Tomorrow: jobless claims and the Philly FED at 8:30, then leading indicators at 10am.

The market opened at an all-time high this morning, and continued to tack on higher prices into the afternoon. Our very short-term count now displays five waves up: 2432-2413-2464-2450-2474, while our other short term count displays three waves: 2432-2413-2474. Usually they sync up at some point in time. The SPX did enter the 2479 pivot range today, the pivot range is most important. If this uptrend ends before breaking through that pivot range this is likely a B wave of Int. iv. If this uptrend breaks through that pivot range this is likely Minute iii of Minor 5. With Opex activity on Thursday/Friday we should know before the week ends. Short term support is at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Short term momentum ended extremely overbought today. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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93 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. micky says:

    Gee this bull must be hell for the neowave followers.

  2. Page says:

    I am long WTI …. will hit $50 by end of July

    • fionamargaret says:

      When UWT went higher than 14, as it did this morning, that is a breakout…going to 18.5.
      BUT be careful…oil is tricky and I still have an indication of $WTIC going to 41…maybe after this leg higher.
      Keep stops and an eye on it…we want UWT to close again today above 14..

      • fionamargaret says:

        For my other numbers check my answer to Tore at the top of Tuesday Update.
        I also have TMF going to 25….but it is slow, and back and forth…but 25 is the number.

        • Jimbo says:

          UVXY going to 4 Miss Fiona…. wow

          • fionamargaret says:

            What are you wanting to know Jimbo…I am talking about oil and long dated bonds.

            • Jimbo says:

              I’m just recalling your thoughts on UVXY when you said it was going to 4 when it was around 15…. around 6 now before split… good stuff

              • fionamargaret says:

                Well I like your work too Jimbo.
                My work is based on progressions…at the moment the $SPX is on a sequence to reach 2549….Caetiris Paribus….Micky and I have approximately the same numbers.
                I previously had 2185 from about 1350…
                I also have the market with a positive bias to the 10th or so of August, then down to October….
                The Russell I have with the most upside potential at this moment in time…completely contrary to most…
                Following Tony is your best bet….you are a maths guy.. ..and Tony has spent his life studying this, and he really is the best. x

  3. vipulm555 says:

    S&P 2500
    Nasdaq 6000

    Landmarks are for celebration

  4. vivelaamo says:

    Time to buy IYT. Fill your boots and keep adding. It will rocket to join the rest in the next few weeks.

    See you tomorrow suckers!!

      • vivelaamo says:

        Page on July 15, 2017 at 11:01 am
        VIX in 8sh is coming for sure, that’s when all hell breaks lose in the market and full blown correction begins, it will happen in July.

        LOL 😂

    • fotis2 says:

      Thanks for the heads up viv loading shorts you the best contrarian indicator on site

      • vivelaamo says:

        Fotis remember this.

        May 31, 2017 at 10:30 am
        RUT yet another chance to go long. I’ve taken it. Market doesn’t present these chances often.

        Hope you didn’t short around that time like your best buddy Kvilla did. He is wiped out now.

        All the best pal.

        • fotis2 says:

          I believe you have wiped out and now stuck with the demo and that’s why you comment so much out of boredom.

          • vivelaamo says:

            Believe what you want. I’ve been a perma-bull on on here for nearly a year now and you know it. How the hell would I get wiped out when so bullish! The times I have lost money is when I’ve over complicated things and gone short.

            Anyway goodnight my friend. I hope tomorrow is a profitable day for you.

  5. Hi,Tony,please,do you think that this count would be valid for a wave 5?thanks

  6. learner3078 says:

    Hi Tony, what’s your current view on EUR/USD, is it almost at the top now in the near term and a reversal due? Thanks.

  7. phil1247 says:

    2476.75 target considered hit as it came within 4 ticks

    down to a perfect touch of 2465 which was a profit target yesterday
    and is now support for the traditional long shown
    also perfect touch of trendline and big bounce

    i love this stuff !

    thats all for today folks … good luck !

  8. stockop says:

    AAII sentiment starting to look toppy. not an extreme by any means, but it hasnt looked like this is months

    • tommyboys says:

      Disagree AAII strongly neutral. 35% bulls isn’t even the LT average of 38% – same for bears of 25%. Neutral down a hair but still well above LT average of 31%. Net Neutral…

      • stockop says:

        wish i had your bull goggles. the bear reading is what I am most concerned about. almost 5% less than the historical average? this is how short-term tops are formed. bunch of people turning bullish at all-time highs and running from the short side? to clarify, i am by no means expecting a significant top, i just think things are coming into alignment for a pullback in the near future.

        • tommyboys says:

          Could be but it won’t be from sentiment based on AAII numbers. As stated Both bull & bear below LT averages with neutral above. Nothing to see here from ANY perspective. Too many looking for something where there is nothing.

  9. like Donald Jr email, drop for 5 minutes. More short fuel and continue the rocket higher.
    Dip buyers there waiting

  10. Another underwhelming day for gold and GDX.Dollar down and nothing from PMs.Previous times have foretold PM selloff.Time to start watching the 10d and 20d again for evacuation purposes.

  11. stockop says:

    XLE potential breakout gap. jumped its downtrend line from December.

  12. vivelaamo says:

    2479 to be breached today and we can put the B wave to bed once again.

    Good Luck all. See you at 2500!!

      • vivelaamo says:

        Page on July 15, 2017 at 11:01 am
        VIX in 8sh is coming for sure, that’s when all hell breaks lose in the market and full blown correction begins, it will happen in July.

        LOL 😀

        • allen kimble says:

          LOL Page is this boards Gartman. Statements not backed up by facts and confidence enough to make a dictator weep. LOL

          • vivelaamo says:

            His vix comment doesn’t even make sense. Just because stocks are rising doesn’t mean vix will keep falling. We can stay at these levels for weeks!

  13. ECB ready to do more QE if needed. Wow. Could be rocket fuel .sp futures imply a 2478 open Europe up almost 1 percent. Central banks should just come out and say we want the Dow at 50k and be done with it. Goldilocks market 2 percent growth no rate hikes and world CB have a backstop Don’t know why I’m surprised but I am. Good luck all.

  14. phil1247 says:

    2469 support if we dont go right up to 2477 target
    then 2465 support

    do those numbers sound familiar??
    they were yesterdays profit targets

  15. phil1247 says:


    aggressive ext long failed
    was it a wedge with throwover ?
    if so fast decline coming ….
    upshot ….
    …dollar sharp rally
    and metals could take heat

    • phil1247 says:

      sold out fxe bot yest on this spike up
      will have to go back and see whats going on
      let the dust settle…..
      ……..sell first … ask questions later

  16. Bud Fox says:

    Thank you Tony for your work here. SP500 is getting ever closer
    to a major price top. Not yet, but closer. Expect top to be above 2500,
    on the SP500. I am in cash, awaiting that top, to go short. So, I have
    a good wait ahead….Best to all, and Tony C….

  17. IrA:No change on dollar and bonds–gold/GDX getting overbought (doesn’t take much,does it?)SPX,Nasdaq are either bullishly embedded or will today.
    Someone else I read says DAX and FTSE have bear flags.FTSE below 7300 would (should…might,take your choice)open the trap door for another 400 pts,theoretically.See what the ECB says about that…lol.
    Good night all.

    • More specifically 7360 or 70 points away…on FTSE.Will they let the market fall 4 percent?Good question.

      • mcgcapital says:

        Uptrend line off the Brexit lows comes in at 7300 which is why they’re saying that. 7100 is major support having been the previous all time high and holding in January and April. Think once this b wave is done we give it another test, but the next time it begins with a 6 the bubble has burst IMO. Probably bounce from 7100 to 7400s for a possible head and shoulders under a bearish scenario

  18. stormchaser80llc says:

    My trading signals which turned BULLISH on 7/12/2017 continue to be BULLISH. SPX looks to be in a W5 higher (likely 1 of 5), making new All time Highs along with its A-D line. This is after a string of 7 real and 10 total Hindenburg Omens since late May. Be careful this run-up as it may be the last before a BIG turn lower. I say this as my proprietary Technicals Model made its 8th negative divergence vs. SPX since mid-April, and the first one of its kind since 3 positive divergences since late June. VIX is on an hourly BUY MACD signal.

    Internals, Breadth and Participation have come back to life as one would expect, only well well off their not so recent peaks and more mixed. This gravy train WILL NOT go on forever. Yield curve starting to turn lower, as deflation risks come back to the table after a several week reprieve. Oil’s new July high should be occurring shortly.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site ( However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

  19. UPDATE: Still room for more!
    spx hourly futures –

  20. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $OIL at

  21. xpto31 says:

    Can anyone tell me how post a chart /image?

  22. bfquant says:

    TC. If minute C of int 4 materializes, what is max decline we could be looking at?

  23. bfquant says:

    RUT right on that wedge top line. Major inflection

  24. H D says:

    Thx Tony, agree on the 5 waves. Close to 5=1 symmetry too. BOTs Range 2,463.85 – 2,473.83

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