Monday update

SHORT TERM: quiet open- quiet day, DOW -8

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher but ended mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the NY FED was reported lower. The market opened 1 point below Friday’s SPX 2459 close, dipped to 2457, then drifted up to 2463 just past 1pm. A pullback to SPX 2458 followed by 3:30, then the market bounced to close about unchanged at 2459.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.05%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude dropped 55 cents, Gold rose $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Tomorrow: import prices at 8:30, then the NAHB at 10am.

No change in the short-term count after today’s 6-point trading range. We continue to observe three waves up from the SPX 2408 downtrend low: 2432-2413-2464. We had noted last week, we had checked back to 1982 and could not find one correction as small as 2% at anytime. Over the weekend we found two: the spring of 1927 and the fall of 1944. In both historical cases they were 2% corrections during a subdivision of a larger wave. These historical events would appear to support the Minute i (2456), Minute ii (2408), Minute iii underway scenario. Will see how it works out this time as it is a small sample size. Short term support remains at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Short term momentum dropped down to neutral after being extremely overbought on Friday. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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93 Responses to Monday update

  1. johnnymagicmoney says:

    RAISING RATES WOULD BE BAD!!
    RAISING RATES IS GOOD!!
    NOT RAISING RATES IS GREAT!!!

    that pretty much sums up the delusion

  2. H D says:

    Range 2,450.34 – 2,460.37 Turn around Tuesday

  3. ohmtoom says:

    Multiple IHS being formed. Looks like SPX is on its way to 2465-2470.

  4. johnnymagicmoney says:

    deflationary forces abound (ie no reflation story), no health care reform, no tax reform or infrastructure any time soon and the S&P cant even drop three or four handles without algos coming in. Its a sad market when it doesn’t act like a market anymore. We are moving closer to SkyNet every day.

    • vivelaamo says:

      You mean it’s a sad market but when it doesn’t do what you want it to?

      Good evening all.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        You mean you like to make judgments about others and their trading strategies when you don’t know s___t?

        • vivelaamo says:

          Did you mention your trading strategy? Sorry must have missed it.

        • Bud Fox says:

          Can’t we all just get along – do your writing, notes etc and move on.
          Best, you monitor your own work, vs seeing a few others comment.
          IE: 🙂 no one likes my work, but every now and then, I offer my
          market view. Which is, (1) READ OEW each and every day. (2),
          plot my investment strategy. Currently we are in the later stages of
          a 5 wave advance – resistance 2475-2480 ish…..

  5. scottycj1 says:

    On the morning of July 10th–(day of the low) I posted

    scottycj1 says:
    July 10, 2017 at 8:52 am

    P77
    I have a CIT for SPX on the 12th as well……might be the launch point for the next big rally.

    Gold has a key level here at 1204….a close below 1200 and a greater decline can accelerate lower.

    That price was never violated….Cycle low due by months end….may have already seen the low.

  6. Okay,so no repeal of OC for two years–tax plan watered down,at best.Econ #s probably won’t improve on their own.Unless PPT really saves the day,downward prices seem inevitable.How long this takes to sink in–hours,a day,week–it can’t be bullish.We’ll see if news influences sticks or not.By all research,S&P should rally another 10% this year,based on what its done up to now–in past years.How it happens will be interesting,if it does.

    • tommyboys says:

      As most you’re only regurgetating the media distractions/obsession issues ignoring what IS getting done (which proves the media is effective at it’s goal of distraction)…i.e. Incentivizing cash hoard repatriation, reducing regulations all over the place making commerce easier and much more competitive for US companies, incentivizing employment etc…

      While this is all food what you continue to miss however is that the market LEADS so NONE of the stuff you mention matters ahead of the market. The market is saying it likes what it sees and where things are headed. Headlines are noise. The media needs to earn a living to. Ignore it.

    • trondack says:

      “no repeal of OC ” Maybe things are going as planned. A common political strategy is to be for something, unless you actually have to implement it.

      • That’s giving them too much credit for brains.They could have changed a few things and called it a success–and moved to tax cuts.Question is,why are Rand Paul and Collins(and others)happier with OC as is,than an improved one (even if minimally changed).Me no get it.

        • H D says:

          they’ve promised (campaigned) to repeal and replace for 7 years. Now they get to campaign on same promise for 2 more years…. They simply don’t know how to govern.

        • tony caldaro says:

          they all want their own way, and will not compromise

          • tommyboys says:

            Yep pathetic. Time to vote out any congessional salaries then we’ll get only those concerned for citizens in office – this motivated to make things happen. Congress shoujd be on ACA act or any other system they put in place as well – WTF(?)

            • That would only happen after the next Civil War,Fourth turning etc.This stuff is ingrained now.Who has the power to cause any of that type of change to happen,under current conditions?No one.Corruption and incompetency rule.

  7. little more then a .23 retracement from the 51 up. if so still locking for 2474-2478

  8. Bud Fox says:

    SP500 index crest….best guess is. July 26-thru end of the month.
    Price high in the vicinity of 2500, on the SP. Best to your week…Bud

    • Bud Fox says:

      Also, understand price is not so far from the +/- 2500 level low.
      But – 2500 appears to be a strong resistance “zone”…thats all from here.

  9. phil1247 says:

    /ESU7

    ext long 15 min failed
    bear below 2457

    top could be in until proven otherwise

    see ya !

  10. mcgcapital says:

    Looks like the correction could be underway now on the US indices. Little to no follow through on new highs which was similar to the last time in May when we surpassed the March high by 5 SPX points then sold off 50 points

    • Green by 10 Am up to 2478.

        • gary61b says:

          ES possibly a move back up to 2455.5 then down

          • gary61b says:

            ES, from 2456 as a possible small 4 wave b high and down to 2441.75 would fit. Brings the spx to 2444 ish level and possible for a neg. div on the 60min. pullbacks have been running a wee bit light… anyone concur?

            • my 2 cents, take it for what its worth.
              wave 1 was 24 , wave 2 deep 19 point retrace wave 3 51 wave 4 should be short so 2450 works for me looking for 2474-2478 . pull back is done in my opinion, looking for a gap open based on earrings tomorrow. will see

    • vivelaamo says:

      Could chop or grind higher on low volume for days or weeks before a meaningful drop in my opinion.

      • mcgcapital says:

        I don’t like breakouts that drop back into the range immediately afterwards without follow through. If they push back to 2464 today then fair play, but if we close back in the range it’s a negative. Real buying interest above 2454 would be propelling it higher. Plus FTSE and Dax still look in corrective mode so all in all I’m seeing it as bearish

  11. phil1247 says:

    phil1247 says:
    July 13, 2017 at 12:30 pm
    phil1247 says:
    July 8, 2017 at 11:18 am
    nice presentation mjt

    basically agree
    except for the euro
    it still is in extension longs that led to the latest surge
    pullback to 1.13 supported perfectly
    target is 1.15
    cant get bearish until i see the extension long fail

    http://tos.mx/tosmx/item?id=2gWtrz&image

    BANG !!!!

    EURO blasted thru 1.15 and 1.537 targets

    SKY is the limit till extension long fails
    GOLD … are you watching this ????

  12. vivelaamo says:

    For anyone interested in UK stocks I think carillion could be a great long term opportunity albeit risky. The drop is totally overdone in my opinion. I bought some yesterday.

    Mcg love to hear your thoughts.

    • mcgcapital says:

      It’s basically a straight play on whether or not you think they’ll remain solvent so would need to look through their accounts and understand the numbers. Thomas cook had something similar a few years ago and came back strongly as did Glencore. But loads of examples of firms going under like some of the banks in 2008 and BHS which was also pensions related. Would say it’s hard to pass judgement just on the basis of price

  13. ajww says:

    It’s interesting that copper is looking good while silver lags. I read Max Pain for SPX is 2430 where most options will expire worthless. Let’s see if the S&P tags that by end of week

  14. naz43 says:

    Oggi : Gold – Oil – Copper > https://maxborsa.wordpress.com/

  15. Dollar took a late night hit as two more Repub senators said no to healthcare.Gold is not taking full advantage though–should be up $10–only up $3.I HATE when that happens–overnight especially.It means someone is playing with gold again.We’ll see what happens tomorrow.VIX is threatening to embed bearishly.Nasdaq up against the upper bb,but could embed bullishly.Lots of ifs tomorrow and Wednesday.Good night all.

  16. stormchaser80llc says:

    Little changed today. My trading signals which turned BULLISH on 7/12/2017 continue to be BULLISH. SPX looks to be in a wave-4 before making new All time Highs, though its A-D line did today. This is after a string of 7 real and 10 total Hindenburg Omens since late May. Be careful this run-up as it may be the last before a BIG turn lower. I say this as my proprietary Technicals Model made its 8th negative divergence vs. SPX since mid-April, and the first one of its kind since 3 positive divergences since late June. Looking at SPX hourly I would expect a small pull-back followed by new highs to create additional negative divergences. VIX is on an hourly BUY MACD signal but is not looking like a sharp move is expected.

    Internals, Breadth and Participation have come back to life as one would expect, only well well off their not so recent peaks. This gravy train WILL NOT go on forever. Yield curve starting to flatten after a run up, as deflation risks come back to the table after a several week reprieve. Oil bounced below its 50 dma but still can make a new July high shortly.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com) However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

  17. bfquant says:

    TC. Your sample-size-of-2 study would suggest that we are in minute 3 of minor 5 of intermediate 3? If so, no termination targets for int 3 get? I would imagine this could get even more powerfully bullish?

  18. pooch77 says:

    Retracement should start tomorrow

    • mcgcapital says:

      +1. Very little follow through on a breakout to new highs. Feels like we’re in for some rangebound trading the rest of the month but probably not going to go much higher

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