Weekend update

REVIEW

The market started the week at SPX 2425. After a rally to SPX 2432 on Monday, the market pulled back to 2413 on Tuesday before reversing in the afternoon. Wednesday’s gap up opening rally continued into Friday, when the SPX hit a new all-time high at 2464. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.20%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.90%. Economic reports were mostly positive. On the downtick: the Q2 GDP estimate, retail sales, consumer sentiment, plus the budget deficit widened. On the uptick: consumer credit, business/wholesale inventories, the PPI, industrial production, capacity utilization, plus jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the NY/Philly FED and housing.

LONG TERM: uptrend

The Major wave 1, of Primary III, bull market continues. After a microscopic 2% correction in the SPX, 4% correction in the NAZ, and no correction in the DOW, the SPX/DOW made new all-time highs on Friday. We checked back to 1982, and could not find a SPX correction this small in a bull market. Quite unusual correctional activity lately.

The long-term count remains unchanged. A Primary II bear market low at SPX 1810 in February 2016. Then Major 1 of Primary III began. Intermediate waves i and ii completed in the spring of 2016. Minor waves 1 and 2, of Int. iii, completed in the fall of 2016. Minor waves 3 and 4 completed in the spring of 2017. Then Minor wave 5/ Int. iii, or a subdivision of Minor 5 completed in June. More on this below.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

After the NDX/NAZ topped in early-June we waited for the 5th wave up in the SPX to complete. Which it did at SPX 2454. After that we were expecting at least a 5% correction, OEW 2321 pivot, as well as a correction in the NDX/NAZ/DOW. Last week the SPX/NDX/NAZ all confirmed downtrends, but the DOW oddly did not. Nevertheless the correction was unfolding with lower highs and mostly lower lows.

Early this week that all changed. After a rally to SPX 2432, which looked normal, the market failed to make a lower low for the second time: 2413, 2408 versus 2406. After the gap up opening on Wednesday it was clear that SPX 2406/2408 was a low of some importance. The market continued to move higher on Thursday, then made all-time highs on Friday. This activity suggests two possible scenarios.

The SPX 2406 low ended Minor wave A, and a Minor B is underway with a maximum of the OEW 2479 pivot range. Then a Minor C down would complete an irregular Int. wave iv. The second scenario is that Minor wave 5 is subdividing. Should the 2479 pivot range be exceeded then this is the likely scenario. This would suggest SPX 2454 was only Minute i, and the small correction to SPX 2408 Minute ii. Medium term support is at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots.

SHORT TERM

After the SPX 2454 uptrend high, the market declined in a series of overlapping waves to 2408 last week. After that the market has rallied in three waves up: 2432-2413-2464. With the third wave including a gap up. Thus far this looks impulsive, favoring the Minute iii scenario. A decline below SPX 2432 would turn it into a corrective move, and the correction would likely resume. Either way it is a bull market.

Short term support is at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week extremely overbought.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were all higher on the week and gained 1.7%.

European markets were also all higher and gained 1.6%.

The DJ World index gained 2.1%, and the NYSE gained 1.2%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain in a downtrend but gained 0.6%.

Crude is trying to uptrend and gained 5.2%.

Gold remains in a downtrend but gained 1.5%.

The USD is also in a downtrend and lost 0.9%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: NY FED at 8:30. Tuesday: import prices and the homebuilders index. Wednesday: housing starts and building permits. Thursday: jobless claims, the Philly FED and leading indicators. Friday: options expiration. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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152 Responses to Weekend update

  1. phil1247 says:

    /esu7

    2465 next target …. then 2478

  2. enough consolidation, Jack it up.

  3. rabbittrader1 says:

    My subterranean friend ,Mr. Mole, tells me that the “microscopic” correction to 2406 SPX was indeed a low of great importance ( an intermediate iv) and that the v we are now in will extend to a higher level than many think. The next correction will also be small (above 2406) as this BULL continues bto Roar and GORE the Bears. Funding of infrastructure work will boom the US economy and there will be peace in the valley re: N. Korea and China and Russia. So says the Mole. Off to the Mad Hatters tea party Soybeans have made a bottom so silver is very likely to rise. Remember,”You cant beat FUN ” ( Eddie Sachs; Indianapolis 500 race car driver in the 1950’s ) Rabbit

  4. mjtplayer says:

    Wow, very boring day so far on super light volume. ZZZzzz…

  5. phil1247 says:

    EURO

    soaring to 1.15 target
    time to take profits if if doesnt blast thru

    dollar down all year long
    now with euro about to hit target is it ready to bounce ?

    gold and silver are watching
    since gold and silver went down for months with the dollar
    will they both rise with the dollar if it bounces ?

    correlation ………… schmmmmorralation

  6. H D says:

    another reverse split, UVXY- you can always buy it cheaper. -5% already

  7. H D says:

    2 hits that kicked off in July’s. Both were Wave 1 terminations.
    2011= 20% hit in July
    2015= 13% hit in July

  8. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  9. According to J Yellen last week, the interest rate normalization process has been put on indefinite hold. So the bull will continue to thrive on what it has all along–low interest rates with their attendant rich present discounted values and modest but steady earnings growth. Without higher inflation data, long term interest rates will not rise. So if the Fed were to continue with their program of raising short rates, they would eventually create a flat or even inverted yield curve. Janet Yellen is too sensible to create an obvious problem like that.
    All the problems that mcgcapital listed are the bricks which build the proverbial wall of worry that the bull needs to create unbelievers. All right, this perma-bull has done his trolling for the morning.

    • mcgcapital says:

      Haha George different views are what make a market. I don’t think the bull ends before a US recession but my main concerns are around the macro going forward

  10. vivelaamo says:

    Next policatal event to shock stock markets? How about Catalan referendum on 1st October. Surely that’s bigger than Brexit. I’m suprised there isn’t more media attention toward it.

  11. fionamargaret says:

    South Korea has proposed military talks with North Korea on Friday…..dialogue is good, yes..

    • fionamargaret says:

      I have not received any updates to this, nor can find it on any news websites (it was on Bloomberg initially)……

      • gary61b says:

        South Korea Proposes Military Talks With North at Their Border – The …

        1 hour ago – SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea on Monday proposed holding military and humanitarian talks with North Korea, aimed at easing tensions …

  12. mcgcapital says:

    I’m sticking with the b wave call despite the fresh all time highs on Friday. There’s something that makes me feel uneasy about this market. The wall of worry has completely disappeared. Since 2009 until 2015 the market used to pullback 3-5% on a regular basis and then step stair higher, which I regard as healthy price action for a bull market. This market basically does nothing for weeks then gets a hint of further stimulus and it then pops higher by another 1-2%. This week’s moves were driven by the fed and more importantly the announcement that congress was delaying the august recess. It’s clear on the chart that once that came out the buying began. I can’t see how the tax deal can possibly top expectations – as I see it the only way anything is getting passed is for it to be deficit neutral which isn’t going to be the huge fillip the market wants. It makes sense that the long awaited correction will come at some point in the next month given this likely disappointment. The longer term prospects for this market are bleak – valuations are excessive, monetary policy is normalising, the debt load is huge and growth isn’t just going to suddenly start coming in at 3%+ so I’m struggling to see how we can grow out of it. Everything about the data is saying late cycle rather than the start of a new paradigm so it’s only a matter of time before a recession comes along. Typically the market moves 6 months in advance of the economy, so I’m thinking we get some volatility through the summer months, some kind of low in September and maybe another new high towards the end of the year but that could then be it for this bull market. I’m going to get trolled by the perma bulls on here for saying this but it’s just how it instinctively feels to me. It’s an extremely complacent market right now. Those looking for the average man in the street to start piling in to suggest a top are missing the fact that middle income people have been squeezed significantly so they have less disposable income to invest than they did in prior cycles. Every political trend across Europe and America is showing a rise in populism where the average person is now rising up against the system – it’s a matter of time before we see some policies that redistribute wealth in some way and I think that will be very negative for the market in the medium term as it will be a painful transition. But ultimately could set up a much stronger base for sustained growth with no intervention which is something we haven’t seen since 2008

    • allen kimble says:

      You think too much….as such you will be left behind..

      B wave…..ohh please…Have you disregarded the impulse move? Naz is the tell tell sign.

      • mcgcapital says:

        Thinking keeps you ahead of the game rather than in the crowd. And I’m a professional trader so I couldn’t care less whether we go up, down or side to side over time. What I was referring to is the longer term structural problems facing the market as I see it.. I’m not even short the US market at this point as there’s no trading set up for me with the new ATH

      • captbara says:

        +1

        There are/were several tell tale signs. But you wouldn’t know if you only used EW on 1 or 2 indexes.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Thanks Mg. Good post. I don’t think this is a b wave because I’ve seen this scenario over and over and on various degrees. Eventually the B wave gets invalidated.

      You’ve made some valid points though.

  13. bouraq says:

    Chart of the weekand is $AUDUSD at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  14. soulsurfer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    My long standing SPX2485-2505 target-zone is now finally in reach 🙂

    https://investingintelligent.com/2017/07/16/sp500-now-on-track-for-2485-2505-target-zone/

    Trade safe folks!
    Soul

  15. phil1247 says:

    John Bollinger‏ @bbands Jul 13
    More
    Ah, the well-timed photobomb. Gotta love such lovely and subversive tactics!

    • BitCon is like “Hotel California”–“you can check-in any time you want,but you can never leave.”
      BitCon…you can buy them any time you want,but you can’t ever sell…for cash anyways.Banks don’t want anything to do with BitCon–accounts cancelled etc.How does anyone make money by being in BitCon?

  16. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

  17. vivelaamo says:

    Would anyone that invests in UK touch Carrillion with a barge pole?

  18. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/tosmx/item?id=22tOXU&image

    /ESU7

    in extension longs
    bullish above 2452
    next target is 2465………then 2478
    should extension long fail at 2452
    support drops to 2429

  19. micky says:

    My LT target of 2700 is still pretty much intact. MT next target is also still near the 2500 area. The longer the market takes to get there, the higher my resistance lines project. So far my lines have indicated the 2400 area as a good place to take some profits off the table. Then with the subsequent correction they provided quite a few ST and VST long scalping support areas. (70% correct) with the 2330 area being the last one that launched the next uptrend.
    Then the MT lines indicated 2450-2500 area as next resistance. At 2450 area I decided to take some money again and either scalp long again if time permitted at the ST and VST support areas indicated. I did not as I was busy so now I will start to add to longs on any PB provided if the RR is ok, until the next target area is near, to lighten up again. I have posted live most of what I have just written.

    The reason I mention these things is to show that to play only the long side during a LT and MT uptrend, pays. Also that I don’t use the confusing and mostly wrong signals of momentum indicators to place trades. One can safely throw them away. Also EW gives indications but not definite signals because there are mostly alternate counts and maybe,s . It all boils down to having a system that provides proper support and resistance areas with rules like “if, then” .
    Fenster6, if I may suggest, explore or devise a system that incorporates a bit of EW with Tony,s pivots if you don’t have your own proper support and resistance system. Or look at Eminiaddict system which Phil uses quite successfully, and forget about the news, politics and whatnot.

    • merovix says:

      Thank you micky, I like your post, consistent use of a methodology based on these principles will be fine.
      & Thank you very much Mr Toni Caldaro 🙂

  20. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/tosmx/item?id=mbxQku&image

    SPX

    previous chart was quite busy….
    idealized path forward if targets and retracements go perfectly
    only 2478 is a validated target

  21. Bud Fox says:

    In looking at the OEW, SP500 chart. Price is expensive,
    and looks to be getting even, more expensive going forward.
    Sorta, miss that 2009 low. 🙂

  22. Tony, I never got around to thanking you for publishing not one, but two excellent reports last weekend. Thanks for that extra work on our behalf.

  23. Menachem M. Uzan says:

    Hi Tony,
    It seem that many are surprised by the continued bull market activity this past week. It is definitely unprecedented, to the point where its not normal. Look, I understand all the arguments where else can I put my money, interest rates are still very low and we are just beginning Primary 3 etc…. I am already exhausted following this relentless bull market without thinking “am I going in sane not to think that there could be something else going on”. Not that this bull market has a long way to go, just the opposite, that it could be about to end for a very long time. IMVHO it doesn’t feel right. I would like to know what are the alternate long term counts. One , that I see is that, we’re at the end of some massive 5th wave, that SPX 667 was a massive 4th wave bottom and now we’re in the 5th of a 5th of a 5th of a 5th and final wave. Or, two, that we are finally ending Primary I. IMVHO its good to think outside the box when things seem too weird. Thanks again for your wonderful blog!

  24. torehund says:

    ..thought I saw a p-III ladder there too. Letting a lie become true, yes I will take that any day now 🙂

  25. fenster6 says:

    Since the downtrend was confirmed we have gone up 3%. So once again I seem to not understand how to trade using this method. How many more % do I give it?

    Do I wait for the short-term to reverse to up trend or is it best to ignore the short term trend and stick to the long term which is still up? Though having looked through the archive of posts I see the long term was wrong in the fall of 2015 when it went full out bearish and then flipped to bullish in late f2015/ 2016 after a large rally but has been right form then on.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Everyone has their own approach to the markets.
      Have been long, with leverage, since turning bullish last year.
      Yes, more than made up for that bad call in early 2016.
      I took off about half in June in anticipation of a large correction.
      After one month of choppy downside action with minimal price damage, thought the correction might only be 5% and put the half back on.
      Having developed the OEW method it has always worked for me with few drawdowns.
      The keys are money management and to be flexible.
      There are investors, swing traders, day traders, and gamblers in the market.
      Whichever fits your personality you should be doing, if successful at it.
      Any one method will of course not work for everyone.
      One has to create their own edge.

  26. Fionamargaret:
    The McClellan article was quite interesting but not particularly easy to understand. McClellan is using technical tools he probably learned as an aerospace engineering major at West Point.

    • fionamargaret says:

      McClellan I find somewhat obtuse sometimes, but kind in the sending of his articles.

      http://www.amateur-investor.net/AII_Daily_Report_July_12_2017.htm
      George, in this A.I. chart, it suggests we correct at 2485….but here is the interesting part …he says he reached this number by using the 200% extension level calculated from the 2007 High to the 2009 Low……now is this getting at what you were telling me about Jeffrey’s calculation being different from yours (or has this nothing to do with that at all)?
      Bob who writes Amateur – Investor is a man who lives and breathes the market too.
      Thanks George.

      • jeffrey’s calculation was not an issue. The only issue is that the beginning of a price movement is always defined as the high or low point of the previous move in the oppositie direction. Observe that Tony C always counts the beginning of a new wave at the end of the preevious wave of the opposite direction.

        • aahmichael says:

          RE: “the beginning of a price movement is always defined as the high or low point of the previous move in the oppositie direction.”

          Many times, Elliott waves do not end or begin at the highest high or lowest low of a move. That’s because of truncations, running corrections, and triangles.

      • The Fibonacci methods used by AI are not explained well enough for me to make any comment about them. I am just trying to learn more about the DH method a little at a time.

  27. Jack Sparrow says:

    this is the count i wanted to show you guys is playing out..so this will be the end of third wave when the fifth of fi is complete…which will then lead to substantial correcton under 4th about 200 points plus to 2300…notice this count shows the fifth wave in action now in final stages (fifth of fifth of 3 playing out).
    http://imgur.com/a/k2v6M

  28. alexh110 says:

    Tony, is there any reason to rule out a minor 5 triangle from the April low, with minute e currently underway?

    • torehund says:

      Thanks Fiona, make or break for gold, silver and commodities. I am a Usd Bull, but its flip a coin determination point right here.

  29. captbara says:

    EEM long term breakout

    EEM is outperforming SPX and NAS since 2016.

    • Hi thanks for sharing the helpful info on EEM. EEM seems to be in the c leg of the B wave bounce started in 2008 with a target around 59s? https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ATDarkss/

      Which ETF is the best play for emerging markets now? EEM, EEMO, EMQQ, or EET (2X)? EMQQ, EDC and EET have broken out much earlier. But all these (except EMQQ’s weekly) have Coppock shown continuous negative divergence on daily and weekly. Don’t know if this should be worried about or not.

      Have a great new week!

      • captbara says:

        No problem. I don’t play EEM myself, but the beauty of charts like this is that you have a clear divide between bullish and bearish. Breaking long term resistance like this is always a significant development.

  30. stormchaser80llc says:

    My complete blog post today is open to the public to read. If you like the post, you can sign up for a FREE subscription to view this analysis daily at the bottom my blog post!

    My trading signals which turned BULLISH on 7/12/2017 continue to be so. Strong gains made a new SPX ALL TIME HIGH today after a string of 7 real and 10 total Hindenburg Omens since late May. Be careful this run-up as it may be the last before a BIG turn lower. I say this as my proprietary Technicals Model made its 8th negative divergence vs. SPX since mid-April, and the first one of its kind since 3 positive divergences since late June. Looking at SPX hourly I would expect a small pull-back followed by new highs to create additional negative divergences destroyed today. VIX has a couple positive divergences at today’s low, yet needs to form a lower low to develop stronger and more well-rounded positive divergences.

    Internals, Breadth and Participation have come back to life as one would expect, only well well off their not so recent peaks. This gravy train WILL NOT go on forever. Yield curve starting to flatten after a run up, as deflation risks come back to the table after a several week reprieve. HYG:IEF candle looks skidish for its lower close today. Oil at its 50 dma but still can make a new July high shortly.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com) However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

  31. Thanks Tony. Urban Carmel and others are drawing attention to low levels of put/call ratios and studies covering the last two years suggest we may give back something next week while studies covering the last five year argue this will be recaptured the following week. But I don’t understand why n (sample size) would be 16 for the two year study and only 9 for the five year study. And while next Friday is OPEX, most tend to look at the entire week and from what I have read there is nothing particularly interesting about July OPEX week. Of greater interest, though, is a study of August market performance after July prints an ATH. “the second observation is that the month of August’s been a downer more often than not when the S&P500 prints a new all-time high in July. “8 of the last 10 samples have seen the S&P500 decline in August, on average by -3.13%.” But if we look only at instances in which August has declined, the average drawdown increases to 4.6% which is pretty close to the 5% we have been looking for what feels like an eternity. https://steve-deppe.squarespace.com/blog/2017/7/14/an-ath-in-july-whats-next I think the big numbers come later in the year.

    Urban Carmel‏
    @ukarlewitz
    Urban Carmel Retweeted Urban Carmel
    Equity only put/call 0.53. Last 2 years, $SPX closed lower within next 5 days 14 of 16 times (88%); avg max loss 0.8% vs avg max gain 0.3%

    Index put/call drops to just 0.53. Last 5 yrs, n = only 9. $SPX closed higher w/in next 5 days 8 of 9 (89%) by avg 0.8%

    • tony caldaro says:

      this market is full of surprises
      don’t think any of that matters

      • August is not that far away so we will soon know. And if we are in Minute iii of Minor 5, the clock is ticking unless it starts subdividing or Minute iv is a protracted affair. But the past week is a vivid example of surprises being served up on short notice. In the end, though, all of the vagaries of the market only deepens the passion for students of the market who persevere in their attempts to understand something which refuses to lend itself to any type of mastery of understanding.

      • Tarun Varma says:

        Stephen, responding to your comment “I don’t understand why n (sample size) would be 16 for the two year study and only 9 for the five year study.” Its because first study is for $CPCE which is EQUITY only p/c while the second is for $CPC which is INDEX p/c (index p/c includes $vix activity, which runs inverse to other major indices). Low $CPC could mean either high $vix calls being bought (relative to put activity) or high number of $SPX $QQQ $DJI etc. puts being bought (relative to call activity). When $CPC is low is usually the former case.

        • Tarun Varma says:

          Sorry I meant $CPCI (not $CPC) in above response. Let me add that $CPCI has clocked in < 0.6 very rarely. Twice in 2017 so far, once in 2016, four times in 2015(!!) and twice in 2014. IMHO $CPCI lookout period to be used as a trigger is both short-term (like Urban has pointed out above) and intermediate-term (about 1-2 mos out). These $VIX call buyers know something and we'll most likely find out in Aug/Sep.

    • Thanks, Swede. I have noticed that August is usually a down month after a July peak, too. Tom McClellan is expecting that as well, as you can read in the link on Fiona’s Fri post. Of course, as Tony points out, this market likes to defy expectations.

  32. Page says:

    Thanks Tony. Outstanding update as always.

  33. phil1247 says:

    SPX

    if targets and retracements go perfectly

    2478 then 2493 .. then 2513

    Tony…..

    you are not going to tell me that 2493 and 2513 are pivots ???

    are you ?

    http://tos.mx/tosmx/item?id=LEihJd&image

  34. if 2479 is exceeded than minute 3 is under way.

    If minute 1 started at 2328.95 and up to 2454. That makes that 5 wave sequence 125 points.

    Then from 2408 minute 3 should be longer then 1 making this move of minute 3 up to 2533 minimum. The first wave of this move up was only 24 points then a 19 point pullback then 51 up so far. In order to get up to 2533 level, this current wave should not have a 12 point pull back or more until 2479 is passed. More likely up straight to 2500 Making the 3rd wave say 87 points then a .23 wave 4 down call it 20 points down to 2480 then wave 5 has to be 53 points to hot the minimum level for a wave 3.
    So you have a 5 wave up 24 down 19 up 87 down 20 up 53
    as overbought as we are continuing straight up Seems difficult or I’m I missing something

    Thanks

    • If 2533 is 3 then 45 down for 4 2488 then 125 more up for 5 puts Int 3 at around 2613
      Or approx 600 points for Int 3. Even a 10 percent correction from that level brings you down to 2413. If numbers correct. Lots of time to remain a complacent bull, ah. And bears are going to continue to be disappointed

      • going to go with soul surfers count that minor 5 of major 3 will be ending soon. Ndx 5908 Dow 21815 sp 2493
        Can’t see this being minute 3 over 2533. Somethings not right. Downtrend confirmation then new highs, market figured out Tony’s system. Lol.monitor and adjust as required. A pull back Monday to the 2444 area would help this case with 1 more up wave , a higher open that continues to 2479 before any noticeable pull back helps the minute 3 case.
        So many people with so many counts, makes your head spin

        • allen kimble says:

          Ndx 5908? Ummm you should understand it’s almost there lol. Revise it higher.

        • Bud Fox says:

          Yes, and to a great degree. That is the risk, with more than 1 advisor.
          Try to decrern who has the better track record…

          Oh…me? I follow Mr Caldaro’s count, always…

  35. bfquant says:

    What is very noticable to me is the abrupt decline in Nasdaq volatility on or around July 5. It then turned into this robotic “tick tick tick” climber just as it was about to fall out of bed. “They” are just toying with the prudent. Never seen the intraday characteristics of an instrument change so quickly.

  36. captbara says:

    Market is signaling that OCare will be replaced. Senate votes next week.

    • This is your own confirmation bias talking. Market does not care about trivial political machinations.

      • captbara says:

        Of course the market cares, as the healthcare bill has large repercussions to the deficit.

        Essentially you can predict the future via the market, because the market is predictable. This applies to events as small as a company’s ER, or political impactful ones, or fiscally impactful ones.

        • Lee C Wilson says:

          I’m loathe to predict what news events will move the market but am willing to concede that the psychological priming is set. Implied probabilities favor that BTK and by extension XBI and IBB have nearly completed their respective short-term uptrends as evidenced by the negative divergences witnessed on the hourly and daily RSI.

          Personally speaking, given this Congress’s track record, I’m doubtful any meaningful legislation is passed in the next couple weeks … much more fertile ground should be found later this fall into winter as intermediate 3 uptrends complete across the sector. However, that should be strongly prefaced by the the reminder that eventual conclusion of this primary uptrend sometime in 18-19 will usher in a biotech bear market that will likely make a run at, and possibly exceed, last years lows.

  37. tommyboys says:

    So “investors” in Rydex funds are buying long etfs – they’re bullish – BUT – not many people in general are investing period…

    Report on CBS this morn indicating consumers are NOT investing – they’re hoarding cash – and have been for years. They’re not even shopping – they’re SAVING! 55c of every disposable dollar is being deposited in banks. Last Q it was actually the second highest – next to 2008 – on record at 77%! This sure leans bullish for the markets & economy per psychologist interviewed saying this won’t ladt forever as the cycle will turn as it always does. May explain some of the lighter volumes past several years as well. When this cycle does turn should add rocket fuel to market & economy – whether next year or 5 years down road or whenever.
    😳

  38. Thanks Mr C.Imho,this unexplainable stoppage of–what should be a 5% (or more)decline–is a “Fed wave”.You may add it to your OEW terminology at no charge…lol.As I said last night,gold COTs look very bullish.Now price action has to kick in–but it could be an explosive move potentially.It would also reverse the first two weeks of July’s decline–unusual,if that occurs.So no buying until 1233 is breached (22 GDX).Good luck all.

  39. tommyboys says:

    Thanks Tony great report…

  40. mjtplayer says:

    Per my comment the other day regarding the VIX, a bit more compression in the curve Friday and another drop in the spot into the mid 9’s where the VIX has bottomed 3 times already over the past couple months.

    The ED pattern continues:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/rY4bezfJ/

    One more thing, the VIX closed the week at 9.51 – that’s the 2nd lowest weekly closing EVER (week of Dec 20th, 1993 VIX closed at 9.48)

    For the first time in a long time, I went long volatility just before the close yesterday via VXX

    • Page says:

      VIX in 8sh is coming for sure, that’s when all hell breaks lose in the market and full blown correction begins, it will happen in July.

        • fotis2 says:

          You back?Thought you were done with this site.

          • vivelaamo says:

            I thought why let a few keyboard warriors stop me posting. I’ll respect Tony’s rules and keep it to 3 a day though. Are you still looking for a drop?

            • fotis2 says:

              Vive got stopped out of that one everything was nicely lined up for a decent drop technicals,waves seasonality really don’t know what’s next thankfully there are always other instruments to trade currently Gold seems to be a good long for the short term.

              • vivelaamo says:

                Yes it’s a tricky market to short. Has been for years. I know many say there is no correlation but I think gold rally and further strength may suggest some up coming weekness in indices. Yes I went long gold when posted it will rally last week. Good Luck.

  41. mjtplayer says:

    Tony – for your count, why not have minor 4 at the 2,322 low in March? From there you would have minute i = 2,378
    minute ii = 2,329
    Subdivided minute iii = 2,453
    minute iv = 2,407
    Now rallying in minute v…

  42. llerias7 says:

    Thanks, TC. In case of Minor 5 what projection can be made for a top?

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