Friday update

SHORT TERM: slightly higher open then new highs, DOW +85

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.2%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. At 8:30 the CPI was reported flat, and retail sales were reported lower. At 9:15 industrial production and capacity utilization were both reported higher. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 2448 close, dipped to 2447, and then started to move higher. At 10am business inventories were reported higher, and consumer sentiment lower. Around 12:30 the SPX exceeded its all-time high and continued to rally. At 3:30 the SPX hit 2464, then pulled back to 2459 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.70%. Bonds rose 7 ticks, Crude gained 55 cents, Gold rallied $10, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 pivot. Today the Q2 GDP estimate was lowered to 2.4% v 2.7%.

After a quiet open, and small pullback, the market rallied to new all-time highs today. After only a 2% correction the SPX is now in a new uptrend. Relentless bull market. Went back to 1982, and could not a find a correction this small in a bull market. Nevertheless, the parameters offered yesterday remain unchanged. If this uptrend fails to exceed the OEW 2479 pivot range it will be counted as a B wave rally in an overall Int. wave iv correction. If it exceeds that pivot, then it would be Minute iii of Minor 5, with Minute i (2454) and Minute ii (2408). Remember we are dealing with probabilities not guarantees. Thus far we have a three wave rally from SPX 2408: 2432-2413-2464. SPX 2432 remains an important level for either an impulsive/corrective rally. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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20 Responses to Friday update

  1. COT chart for gold–extremely bullish.A break above 1233,1248 would be a speeding train.It’s all set up.Just need for the CBs to stop sitting on the gold market.Gold unembedded today,so it went to the 18day ma.Very standard move.Now it needs to get over the 1233 level–for starters–to be a BULLISH move.Later all.

  2. dingo342014 says:

    Hi Tony,
    I’ve been wondering for a while if there is much difference between now and the lead up to the 1929 crash based on some things which seem to be repeating, and was wondering on your thoughts seeing as you have a great grasp on historical elements of the markets.

    What is making me wonder this is the following:

    The commodity cycle topped around 2010, it also topped around 1920 I believe (correct?)
    Stocks were overvalued compared to earnings (dividends) in the lead up, and are apparently in the same situation today (correct?)
    Govt’s artificially lowered rates prior to the 1929 crash (correct?)
    There was a significant bear market 9 years earlier including deflation – is this what also happened in 2008/9?

    I did not glean any of this from any guru – i’ve been out of the markets for near 5 years and only recently got back into it and have been doing some of my own research and just noticed these similarities. I guess at the same time, if what I am suggesting is not ‘new news’ but is something that many others are saying then I’d have less reason to believe it. I also realize that such a scenario probably flies in the face of the OEW count, but im not sure of you have alternatives in the background.


    • tony caldaro says:

      Hi Dean,
      There were some parallels as both completed a Supercycle.
      Commodities top around every 30-years: 1920-1950-1980-2010.
      Stocks were less over-valued in 1929 and 2007, than they were in 1999 and now.
      Yes, FED lowered discount rate 2 months before Oct 2007 top.
      There was a deflationary bear market after 1929 and 2007. But the DOW took 25-years to recover then, but only 6-years this time around.
      Great depression v Great recession.

  3. torehund says:

    Amazing market, still the world is severely grumpy, no hope, no future, no honesty. Until a spade is called a spade hold. Looks like an index squeeze is brewing. Good weekend to Tony and all in here, Tonys blog will experienece boom time, but this is the best of times, enjoy it🍒🍒🍒

  4. fionamargaret says:
    Thanks Tom McClellan

    Thanks Tony….and everyone.xx

    If you watched Beethoven 4 yesterday, do look at Lang Lang in rehearsal, and the playing of Beethoven 5….not only is there a love story in the interpretation, but watch what happens to the conductor and soloist…more love..

  5. Jack Sparrow says:

    the way an overlap was avoided by couple of point between two waves (around 2405ish)..probable wave1 and wave 3- leads me to believe what started at 2405 was wave 5 of the three… i will repost this tomorrow incase you guys dont read it there

  6. joecthetruthteller says:

    Key levels to watch next week:
    S&P 500 (CME:SP500): 2,405.70
    Dow (INDEX:DJI): 21,197.08
    NASDAQ (NASDAQ:COMP): 6,303.45
    Gold (NYMEX:GC.Q17.E): 1,212.50
    Crude Oil (NYMEX:CL.Q17.E): 44.99
    U.S. Dollar (NYBOT:DX.U17.E): 97.16

  7. Thanks Tony. The beast rolls on and does not flinch in shattering previous highs. The move from 2404 to 2454 was around 50 points and if we add 50 to 2413 we get 2463. Not a termination pivot but simply a time to pause. Thoughts ???? I may be forcing things to work as I would prefer starting at 2408.

  8. Bud Fox says:

    good reason, to suspect this SP advance will soon, fail – possibly fall pretty hard…

  9. Tarun Varma says:

    Tony – in one of this week’s updates you had mentioned that A and C waves in this bull phase have shown very OS RSI readings. Is there anything in particular regarding the B waves (RSI/other measures) that comes to mind?

  10. Don Jenver says:

    I’ve seen a lot of cycles point to problems around the 2030 time frame.

  11. pooch77 says:

    After that horrible close on rut i say down Monday

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