SHORT TERM: quiet open – consolidation day, DOW +21
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and at 8:30 jobless claims were reported lower and the PPI was unchanged. The market opened 1-point above yesterday’s SPX 2443 close, and rose up to 2447 by 10am. After a pullback to SPX 2442 by 10:30 the market started to drift higher. At 2pm the budget deficit was reported higher. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 2449, then dipped to close at 2448.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.25%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude rose 60 cents, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2444 and 2428 pivots, with resistance at the 2456 and 2479 pivots. Tomorrow: the CPI and retail sales at 8:30, industrial production at 9:15, then consumer sentiment and business inventories at 10am.
A quiet day after yesterday’s rally. This morning we updated the SPX hourly/daily charts to display the most probable counts, (there are others), after this week’s activity. We continue to maintain that an Int. iii high occurred at SPX 2454, and Int. iv is still underway. The recent lows at SPX 2406/2408 probably ended an A wave of some degree, with a B wave underway now. The maximum level for this B wave is the OEW 2479 pivot range. After that level, it fails to be a B wave and probably becomes Minute wave iii of a subdividing Minor wave 5. With two 3-trend corrections early in this bull market several wave pattern options are now available. Project, monitor and adjust. The OEW 2454 and 2479 pivots will help to resolve this issue. Short term support is at the 2444 and 2428 pivots, with resistance at the 2454 and 2479 pivots. Short term momentum displays a negative divergence. Best to your Friday trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: uptrend