Thursday update

SHORT TERM: quiet open – consolidation day, DOW +21

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and at 8:30 jobless claims were reported lower and the PPI was unchanged. The market opened 1-point above yesterday’s SPX 2443 close, and rose up to 2447 by 10am. After a pullback to SPX 2442 by 10:30 the market started to drift higher. At 2pm the budget deficit was reported higher. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 2449, then dipped to close at 2448.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.25%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude rose 60 cents, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2444 and 2428 pivots, with resistance at the 2456 and 2479 pivots. Tomorrow: the CPI and retail sales at 8:30, industrial production at 9:15, then consumer sentiment and business inventories at 10am.

A quiet day after yesterday’s rally. This morning we updated the SPX hourly/daily charts to display the most probable counts, (there are others), after this week’s activity. We continue to maintain that an Int. iii high occurred at SPX 2454, and Int. iv is still underway. The recent lows at SPX 2406/2408 probably ended an A wave of some degree, with a B wave underway now. The maximum level for this B wave is the OEW 2479 pivot range. After that level, it fails to be a B wave and probably becomes Minute wave iii of a subdividing Minor wave 5. With two 3-trend corrections early in this bull market several wave pattern options are now available. Project, monitor and adjust. The OEW 2454 and 2479 pivots will help to resolve this issue. Short term support is at the 2444 and 2428 pivots, with resistance at the 2454 and 2479 pivots. Short term momentum displays a negative divergence. Best to your Friday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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106 Responses to Thursday update

  1. tommyboys says:

    A/D screaming today – new highs again! Trannies breaking out past several days and sentiment strongly neutral!

    Funny here’s three items the bears here have told me the past couple weeks…
    1) The A/D line is meaningless anymore – even when the SP A/D, the Naz A/D & the NYAD are ALL chronically breaching new highs

    2) The Trannies are meaningless anymore due to…ahhhh – somethin???

    3) Sentiment is meaningless because too many ETFs are included – (WHAT ??) – and the only one that matters is the RYDEX sentiment because it tells what people are actually doing – mmm – oh yeah they’re BUYING…(?)

    GL with these views!

  2. phil1247 says:

    Tony

    when i mentioned spx target …… 2478

    i did not mean it was a friday target ….. 😉

  3. gary61b says:

    2461 showing overhead resistance on my ES daily and weekly chart, maybe a pullback…

  4. 50 points straight up, pays to be a complacent bull ah? Due for a 12 point pull back though, have a good weekend all

  5. STEPHEN BARTLETT says:

    Miners still the outperformer in the ftse. They should go higher over time. S&P I closed my short a week or so ago. That mkt looks like it will target 2500. I like the HSCEI here. Could be about to see a huge rally in the HK China names.

  6. Mr C,do I read this correctly…that the weekly S&P is in the process of being wiped out-?Neg div=buy signal.Unbelieveable.

  7. vipulm555 says:

    Such a beautiful RSI(5), sailing like my 3 bird

  8. Page says:

    Very dangerous to short this market. Be very careful if you are short.

  9. pooch77 says:

    Small caps want nothing to do with new high

  10. Atl GdP only drops .2 to 2.4….lol.Riiight.

  11. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

  12. mcgcapital says:

    Looks like wave c underway on the FTSE as we’ve broken back under 7380-400 and Sterling has broken out above $1.30 which looks significant on the daily and weekly chart

  13. Gold has done nothing this morning yet.Still bearish below 1233.

  14. gary61b says:

    gold 1228 going drop or pop…..

  15. phil1247 says:

    thats 3 for me

    Tony

    have a great weekend !

  16. stockop says:

    oil next target around $49.50

    • phil1247 says:

      target and huge resistance both sit at 47.15
      i am ready to sell there unless a blast thru

      • stockop says:

        daily inverse H&S breakout. would assume it either blasts through there or comes back and tests the neckline and breaks it the second time. im irrationally bullish oil right now so take it for what its worth

  17. How is this market up?Dollar plunges on horrible econ #s.Gold reacts the right way,but GDX still hasn’t topped 22.Recession talk mounts.Later.

  18. phil1247 says:

    EURO
    screaming up to targets at 1.15 and 1.1536
    then we will see about upside acceleration or top

  19. phil1247 says:

    /GC

    1230.2 target hit

    bullish above 1214
    first step on the way to 1339
    long GLD from earlier this week

  20. gary61b says:

    gary61b says:
    July 13, 2017 at 11:44 am
    ES has resistance at 2447. If it gets that high..
    Reply
    2447 resistance from yesterday is still holding, below 2439 may turn into our top(short, maybe
    long)

  21. fotis2 says:

    Gold short/medium term looks leg up 1250s?Looking for a possible reversal there lets see.

    https://invst.ly/4d8oz

    • Bud Fox says:

      Great chart, Fotis2. I moves into SLV, albeit to early, I suspect.
      Buy and hold, is my strategy….Take care, thanks for the chart, too…

  22. Bud Fox says:

    Just wondering, the price direction of SLV – now thru 2018 ?

  23. vivelaamo says:

    Spx went the whole year in 2013 without touching the 50 weekly moving average. Is this year as bullish as 2013?

    • thepitguy says:

      Sorry Tony, this is my one and only comment… Viv you my friend are a retard! You just clutter this blog with awful remarks. Thanks bye!

      • vivelaamo says:

        please send me an email on Shamli_@hotmail.com

        I’m clearly rubbing many people up the wrong way so I will no longer post on here anymore. It’s been educational. Good Luck all. Keep bullish and making money.

      • greggw2gs says:

        PitGuy disrespecting folks with special needs isn’t ok…

        • vivelaamo says:

          I know I said I wouldn’t post but really are these personal insults necessary? I just read this recent one and there is no need. Just send it to that email address and we talk, you don’t have to insult me on Tony’s blog. Plus it’s obvious the first one came from Kvilla.

          Tony you seriously need to speak about these bears that resort to insults because they can’t handle the truth. Nobody is telling them to short.

  24. Richard Glackin says:

    I’ve blown a lot of money over the years on EW sites where the so-called “experts” tell you, “The market could do this or the market could do that…on the other hand the market could do that or it could do this. Absolutely NOTHING is more frustrating that that. I’ve observed a precious few experts who will tell you what they expect the market to do and give their reasoning, i.e. their count for that expectation…in other words their highest probability. I would MUCH rather see the latter because then you have something upon which to base a trading decision. And, on occasion when the expert is wrong – well, that is what risk management is about.

    On THIS site, Tony gives some reasonable expectation of how he sees the count playing out. No guarantees of course…it’s all about probabilities. And that is fine and good.

    One other site in particular, the head guru will say the market will be going up based on this count. The alternate count is where the market reverses. Then, when the market goes the opposite direction, he says, “See, I told you it could do that.” That way he’s never wrong.

    The same EW guru after giving the most likely count (I’ll point out that he is actually quite good at forecasting with very accurate projections) will [and I’ve learned this the hard way] barrage you with warnings on any count that actually plays out – scaring you out of what would have been a good trade. The counts that don’t play out – few if any warnings!

    The fact that Tony does not over-stimulate this site with emotional rantings is a real blessing.

    Most important is his comment in today’s update; “Project, monitor and adjust.” My point is that he actually practices the “O” part of the OEW…objectivity. The man has a very calm demeanor, which is very conducive to better trading results. Mr. Caldaro has earned my respect. My hat is off to you sir. Thanks for the good work you do.

    • torehund says:

      Larger time-frames are reliable, medium timeframes a bit less reliable and short timeframes unreliable. This favors investing vs daytrading. Tony has given you the P-III option. That said I too like the small timeframe analysis, its intriguing intellectually. But if you have been into Ew for a while you use the small timeframes to improve your overall skills and not neccesarily trade it. This is how Ew has worked on this blog, and thats fine.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Good post, If it works for people on shorter time frames then hats off to them. From my experience of reading blogs, analysts have got undone by B waves of many degrees. The problem being trying to short a B wave is you are missing out on a hell of a rally which could (and has happened on mamy occasion) turn out to be a continuation of the original trend. I think that’s when the frustration and criticism of the theory kicks in.

    • Bud Fox says:

      Ditto…..

    • Page says:

      +100 Nice positive post.

    • lunker1 says:

      And that’s why I don’t subscribe to that other guy anymore. He’s never wrong with the alternate one or alternate two and is always second-guessing but then can conveniently creatively edit his way into I was right

  25. Gap needs filling on SPX at 2425.Any more than that would be surprising.Gold took some Sominex after Tuesday,GDX doubled the dosage.That’s it for me tonight…

    • fionamargaret says:

      Well, there is a death-cross on Dollar/Yen, and a golden cross on Emerging Mkts, yields that are threatening lower, and a Euro that suggests 1.20…..talking with Soc-Gen is always enlightening….x

    • vivelaamo says:

      Agree. Gap fill and then we 🚀

    • Richard Glackin says:

      Thanks for the update on coffee fiona…I used to watch it but got tired wondering when it was going to bottom 🙂

    • fionamargaret says:

      This is the first time I have played JJ Cale. He was quite a prolific songwriter who Eric Clapton thought of as a big brother, and who helped Clapton through dark times. When you think of JJ Cale, you think of Leon Russell, Thomas Lee, Hendrix, and that time of musical composition brought out of bluesy folk rock and down home inspiration.
      He was one of the best electric guitarists, who used sound separations to enhance the originality of his song writing.
      No one takes you to your own quiet place quite like JJ Cale……….x

    • That #4 was quite good Fiona. Thanks for the post.
      And Mr. Lang probably doesn’t have very long fingers.
      Quite a challenge.
      But he looks comfortable at it.
      ***
      Anecdote #1, I have offered before, but interesting, and on topic.
      I saw Andre Watts once on PBS (way before youtube).
      He played one of the Concertos, I think it was the same, #4.
      After the performance, he was being interviewed.
      The PBS guy was gushing, “Wow, Great!!!
      Watts responds slowly, shaking his head, somewhere between boredom and dull pain:
      You know I only played it, I didn’t write it“.
      ***
      Anecdote #2.
      Steinway and Sons (famous for the concert Piano) was taken private a few years ago.
      I think it was a John Paulson deal.
      I believe he paid quite a premium.
      When it traded as a stock,
      The ticker was LVB
      Stands for
      Ludwig van Beethoven.
      ***
      They say the stock market builds character and teaches humility.
      Good music can so the same.

      • fionamargaret says:

        It is so nice to hear from you Tom.
        Beethoven 4 is my favourite and I think lang Lang gives a fine interpretation, with the emotion just hanging in the air….
        I remember Bernstein, old and frail, would pause baton in hand and then, as if given guidance, would straighten up enlivened, all vestiges of frailty dispensed with….
        Music does that to you…but then you know that…..x

  26. stormchaser80llc says:

    Didn’t make moves today as awaiting the SPX hourly negative divergences to come to fruition. Instead they lengthened and strengthened as price eased higher. Suspecting a notable fall soon. VIX would be supportive, with the majority of its indicators making positive divergences (albeit tiny) at today’s low. Both my trade signals remain BEARISH. Low SPX volume once again.

    The 3 little positive divergences on my proprietary Technicals Model since late June predicted this turn higher. However I do not think the 7 negative divergences seen vs. SPX mid-April through mid-June have played out yet. My thoughts, SPX gets close to or achieves a new All Time High, before BEARS will get their chance again.

    Internals, market participation and breadth largely slightly improved today. The McClellan was positive for the second day in a row.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com) However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

  27. bfquant says:

    Can we engage in a thought experiment? Take BOJ as a model for what could happen here. Fed starts buying exchange traded funds. When might that happen? Are market participants already accounting for this aspect of the Fed “put” . What happens next, and when? Will the BOJ ever be able to sell? I am only now becoming convinced that this would be the scenario that explains Tony’s hyperbullish long term view. The Fed only. Not Trump’s policies, not Obama’s policies, not earnings, not earnings per share, but perhaps perpetual multiple expansion that is Fed driven. They don’t want something silly like a free market impacting Main St. Ever again.

  28. Tarun Varma says:

    Tony, is it correct that the alternate scenario (that the current move is not B wave of int iv rather part of minor v) will put all major indices i.e. DJI QQQ SPX in primary count agreement?

  29. CampFreddie says:

    Easy money – 😀

  30. cmucha68 says:

    And astonishingly from about several million traders in the world I find always the same 15 names on this board. Not a lot of followers for a big EW guru here.

    • lunker1 says:

      I don’t know why am bothering to explain as in the past you’ve proven yourself to be a twit, but here goes. Posters on the daily updates are a totally different animal than followers of the updates. Tony has thousands that follow the updates. Also there’s a private forum for all the OEW members. Did you really care to know or did you just feel like being condescending, again, for no reason?

    • torehund says:

      Chmuka, one of US have to go Big time, then the blog will go vital✨.. I am writing my self off.

      • joemal97 says:

        Just a point cmucha68. I have followed this forum since 2010. I rarely post. I listen and learn. This forum is a key tool in managing my money. If you don’t like it. Please leave. Who needs trolls.

    • Page says:

      I think Tony once said less than 1% of his readers ;post and get their frustration out here including yourself, the other 99% don’t bother posting. Did you get the point? (including yourself). 😀

  31. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Long side is the only trade. See ya’ll at 3000+…… 😉

  32. cmucha68 says:

    Great Tony. What a weakness. You even have no courage to not delete criticism on you. What a shame. Being awfully wrong and not admitting it. You are a disaster and do not deserve at all calling yourself being an objective person.

    • lunker1 says:

      Oh stop it already no one cares. Go take your Ferrari for a drive so you can feel important again. And realize they’re looking at the car not you. They could really care less about you. Ditto here

  33. Peter Sliney says:

    The famous words “Never short a dull or bull market” come to mind these days. This does not look or act like a market that’s going pull back. At the very least we are in a trading range 2400 to 2450. Or we go strait to 2500+.

    • lunker1 says:

      Exactly I was hearing those same words in my head the past two weeks. they tried shutting the faucet off a few times but had instant V bottom rebounds

  34. Thanks Tony and while I could live with either count discussed yesterday, what you offer today likely best reflects reflects probable outcomes. It gives us the room to go higher and then likely fail some time in late July or early August. And I don’t understand why bulls are downbeat about a B wave that could reach 2479. I should also mention that while ES futures have been strong in price, there has been net selling both today and yesterday with ups and downs in selling driving directional changes. This is not the sign of a strong market; 20K buying contracts is a strong day. I have asked so called experts how this is possible and the usual response is “that sometimes it just happens.” In other words, they don’t know. I don’t want to quarrel over nickels and dimes but you have given me several pivot hints and when I calculate the extension of 77 I get 2478. I only mention this because Phil mentions 2478, making for a perfect match while understanding one point is no big deal. Maybe a different pivot? But its a monster pivot and BTW 2444 earned its keep today.

  35. mcgcapital says:

    Thanks Tony. I think we reject new highs on the SPX and begin the pullback tomorrow. It’s interesting to see how most people are now looking for another 1% on the upside before a drop, wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t get up there.

    I attach some analysis from my broker which suggests the Nasdaq could soon begin a new leg lower:

    https://m.imgur.com/a/Ui2fJ

    • vivelaamo says:

      Hey Mc. Looks like your the only one sticking to your guns here while many on here are looking at further highs. Charts are saying we rally, my intuition saying drop. Always need to go with the former. Good Luck.

      • mcgcapital says:

        I’m trading FTSE so it’s been a bit easier.. once the 7380-400 area broke I covered my shorts up to the next point of interest at 7440-50 area and it looks like we’re now breaking down again this morning. I’d say with the US indices, there’s plenty of resistance around here. Always worth selling into a previous high on the S&P, if we break 2454 then I’d be out and probably have another go with everyone else at 2475. The Dow is doing the same thing as January where it makes a marginal new high then comes off, so think it heads back towards 21300 then we’ll see at that point how it looks. The risk reward looks there to the downside so it’s worth taking the trade.. would rather do that and get stopped than go long looking for an extra 20 points and needing a breakout

  36. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #GOLD at tradingchannels.uk/

  37. soulsurfer says:

    Thanks Tony.

    DOW 21,800 seems IMHO next logical target, especially since it didn’t confirm an OEW DT, for a larger top to materialize.

    https://investingintelligent.com/2017/07/13/is-the-dow-jones-on-its-way-to-around-21800-for-a-larger-top/

    trade safe folks!
    soul

  38. Ndx 5900 and sp 2478 for a Top of some sort seems the most popular count. There is a shot for a 2 percent drop to close the week lower then last week. But at the moment seems unlilkly

  39. vipulm555 says:

    Cheez , now in such a strong/relentless bull market also one has to provide B wave count. I can’t imagine , when damn Not !!!!

    Just few days back , it was Like earth is falling. One has to reverse and say world going to sky.

    2525 target, that is also 1st one.

    Never doubt a Primary Trend!!!!!

  40. llerias7 says:

    It is like fliping a coin: you consider this a B wave, steping aside, and miss the train up the hill. If you consider a minor 5 up to 2480+, you are long, and all of a sudden the fall begins (wave C is the worse). Dam if you do, dam if you don´t. There are another chance of a tighting range ( spx 2405 – 2450 – 2405 – 2450……….) for a couple of months!

    • captbara says:

      The fear of a sudden fall at any moment is the same psychology that has mom and pops out of the markets post 2008.

      But we are ok here because EW shows the way 🙂

  41. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/tosmx/item?id=yVSmCy&image

    SPX target ….. 2478

    Tony

    i find it very suspicious that your pivots always seem to be profit targets

    these profit targets are proprietary ! 😉

  42. hohoho598 says:

    Several wave options are now available….. one of them might actually fit.

    Tell me people, if you were given back all the money you have lost trading via EW, what would you learn to do differently…still EW or something much simpler. I mean lets face it, if you have that much time to post ad infinitum daily (and probably other blogs as well) you can’t be making money unless it has been pure luck provided by the markets extraordinary bull run. It’s when the market throws curve balls like the last few weeks that real traders shine.

    • vivelaamo says:

      What curve ball? The same thing that has been happening since Feb 2016? Very shallow pullbacks.

    • captbara says:

      +1. So where do the real traders live? Hehe

    • fbender7 says:

      I would stick to OEW. There is nothing better in my opinion. These are adjustments that I have already made or am planning to make to improve my chances of success:

      1) I have become less dependent on pure directional trading, and always have my risk defined. This way, when OEW does not play out as expected (which is frequently the case) I don’t get burned, just scorched at worst.

      2) I still use OEW as my guide to get a general sense of where the market is going, but don’t count on it happening as planned. In fact, I’ve learned almost not to expect it to play out as planned.

      3) I trade only credit spreads (defined risk), and almost exclusively on the SPX. In my weaker moments, however, I will initiate credit spreads on NFLX, though trading this way on individual stocks is far riskier in my opinion.

      4) If I think there is a good chance the market will go up next, I put on a bull put credit spread, if I think it going to go down, then a bear call spread. If I have no clue, then an Iron Condor. In any event, credit spreads give me some wiggle room if I am wrong about direction.

      5) When the market goes against me, I fare far better when I am disciplined enough to follow my own trading plan regarding risk management. As Jim Cramer said recently, “Discipline trumps conviction.”

      Now here is the real breakthrough for me lately: Over the last many years of following Tony’s work, I have noticed that more often than not, as soon as a downtrend is confirmed, the market reverses itself and goes up! Sometimes the very next day! This has been frustrating for me and many others, because that’s when you want to jump in and go short, when the downtrend has been confirmed, right? Sounds logical, but that’s not the way it works because the downtrend often times does not get confirmed until the downtrend is over or almost over.

      It seems to me that it would be more profitable to go long was soon as a downtrend is confirmed, or shortly thereafter. This will be my next trading experiment.

  43. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Histogram on the Weekly Rut macd looks like it soon may go positive. The macd downturn has been extensive but mat now be ending itself.

  44. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. I said last week I was looking forward to the B wave that just keeps going up until its no longer a B wave. I didn’t expect it so soon! Hopefully this actually remains a B wave and gives bears and bulls a chance.

    • captbara says:

      I don’t think anyone really likes range trading.

      2 top trades over the last year. Load the boat post brexit, post election, and go to sleep.

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