Monday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then rebound, DOW -6

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher, then lower, overnight. The market opened 3 points below Friday’s SPX 2425 close, bounced to 2427, then hit 2422 again at 10am. After that the market started to drift higher. At 3pm consumer credit was reported higher. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2432, then pulled back to 2427 at the close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.50%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude rose 20 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2411 and 2385 pivots, with resistance at the 2428 and 2444 pivots. Tomorrow: wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market opened slightly lower today, put in a double bottom at SPX 2422, then rebounded for the rest of the day. From Thursday’s SPX 2408 low the market has now rallied 24 points to 2432. Rallies during this downtrend have been between 19 and 33 points. Currently all the rallies since SPX 2454 have had lower and lower highs: 2450, 2443, 2439 and currently 2432. Should this current rally reach SPX 2442, then it would have not only made a higher high but would also be the longest rally since the downtrend began. Until that occurs we still look for lower lows ahead. Short term support is at the 2411 and 2385 pivots, with resistance at the 2428 and 2444 pivots. Short term momentum hit overbought during today’s advance, then dropped to neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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107 Responses to Monday update

  1. Bud Fox says:

    ref SP500 index. Already have made 1 comment, but feel
    Need to review and make one more small comment, on the SP.
    Starting to think.feel the SP500 is closer to a significant price top.
    No, not right now. But – in the very near term – I am in cash,
    not wishing to spend money into what could be a more risky environment.

  2. captbara says:

    Donald Jr must know EW. Created that wave 2 nicely 👍

  3. stockop says:

    oil setting up to run. inverse H&S

  4. phil1247 says:


    45.44 target about to be hit

    thats 3 for me

    see ya!

  5. Maybe wave d of a channel/triangle with wave e to finish around 2435

  6. vivelaamo says:

    If we close up this is the hammer candle I was talking about that seems to end these shallow pb’s for the next big rally. Surely this can’t be it though.

  7. pooch77 says:

    Going back up as fast as we went down

  8. pooch77 says:

    Trump Jr turning over emails with Russia

  9. FOX says some emails from Trump jr were released about Russia.Quick selloff in equities,rally in gold.Will it last more than 5 minutes?

  10. fotis2 says:

    Ooops here we go hold on tight.

  11. cmucha68 says:

    Down we go. Excellent.

  12. vivelaamo says:

    Did Janet just sneeze?

    • pooch77 says:

      She might have farted

    • pooch77 says:

      We break 1400 maybe hit 1390 tomorrow,Vive now this is what would happen to me if i scalp long

      • vivelaamo says:

        I know the feeling. Scalping can be like gambling. Bounce to 1406, target 1396? Try checking out eminitrader if haven’t already. Good way to help keep on the right side of the market. I wish I learnt the basic techniques years ago.

  13. captbara says:

    So no one buying the pullback? 5 waves up.

  14. phil1247 says:


    1198 next target

    • vivelaamo says:

      Sorry Tony, can you delete that image. Seems to have taken over the whole page and come out wrong.

    • vivelaamo says:

      I tried to post an image from dropbox but it took over all the page so Tony had to remove it. I have daily traditional short target as 1390 using DH method. Maybe today we break 1400 which has been a tough nut to crack. Good Luck all.

      • pooch77 says:

        Wouldnt that be nice a low tomorrow of 1390 than flip long.

        • fionamargaret says:

          …and oil to 41…actually Bloomberg last night suggested oil has to have a foray below 40…so maybe my lower number of 38 will kick in before oil turns higher.
          If any bankers are reading this and would like more….1.5m would cover it….x

          • fionamargaret says:

            ….and the gold miners JNUG and NUGT are attempting to break out…lots of upside there..everybody’s short…

          • fionamargaret says:

            …if you agree oil is going real deal worked out for less supply…DWT is the fastest….be careful and clever… oh, and fires are trending towards the kinder pipeline..

  15. Bud Fox says:

    Great analysis TC, thank you…..

  16. Two items:Everything I’ve ever heard about HOs,is that once the McClellan goes positive ,the signal is wiped out.Cancelled,kaput.It’s only good as long as McClellan stays negative.It’s supposed to be a signal showing a divergence–with an uptrend in NYSE,but a lagging amount of stocks.Then a NEW signal must trigger to start the process over again.
    2nd item:No change on PMs.Ira sez:GDX over 21.70 might change the bearishness.The dollar breaking 95.75 would probably lead to more selling.Otherwise,gold and bonds are embedded together in their bearishness.Good night all.

  17. cmucha68 says:

    Stormchaser, please explain your “Hindenburg Omen”

  18. stormchaser80llc says:

    Big story, yet another SPX Hindenburg Omen 3, in a row, and 6 since its All Time Highs. Lots of selling going on underneath the currents. SPX had very low volume today, remaining below its 20 dma but at least its well in its Bollinger Band. SPX Hourly made a double top today with last evening, showing large negative divergence’s at today’s highs. VIX was slightly lower, on a hourly MACD signal. Technicals suggest a turn higher is not likely yet.

    Almost all Breadth Indicators are negative. My 2 trading signals remain bearish. The 2 positive divergences seen vs. SPX on my proprietary model late in June and early in July are currently working through the market. Just don’t forget about those 7 huge negative divergences mid-April through mid-June.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site ( However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

    • fionamargaret says:

      Taking Tony’s “lower highs” sequence, the next number for the lower high would be 2428…yes, the pivot. I don’t know how you would use this information, but there it is…

      The album tribute to Derroll Adams I find quite lovely in its simplicity, and hope you do too xx

    • kingfrogcash says:

      I didn’t know Letterman played the banjo

  19. UPDATE: “Tale of 3 Trends” – Spx down, Ndx up, Rut sideways/up?
    (3 charts:)

  20. Thanks Tony. I posted this chart ( ) over the weekend to suggest possibilities for today with the belief that SPX would likely reach for a 78.6% retracement of the fall from 2439. And, indeed, the market tagged 2432 which MAY complete this upswing. The problem is tech and I am of the mind that the SPX has put in its sympathetic NDX bottom, although perhaps faster than history might suggest; it ususally lags by a month. While messy, the two indices have acted as one since June 26th when both put in retracements highs followed by pullbacks leading to lows on June 29th. Since then tech put in a deeper low and SPX put in a shallower low only to see both indices rally both Friday and today. I would like to think NDX and SPX are less correlated today than last week, giving SPX more space and latitude. Until the DOW signals its ready to roll over and Tony is ready to post wave counts, it remains a traders market and I’m keeping all options on the table while giving shorts an edge until circumstances change. TQQQ calls were not the “crack” I thought they would be……flat.

  21. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.

  22. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. An old friend of the blog thinks impeachement charges will get heated up in the next few weeks.

    • pooch77 says:

      Remember last week of July could get very dicey

      • vivelaamo says:

        Cheers Pooch. Im still convinced there will be a big drop in the RUT in the next few weeks so could tie up with your end of July call.

    • tommyboys says:

      Impeachment? Based on what crime? Man this country needs to
      “let it go”, accept the new and refreshing
      administration and let them
      get down to work instead of obstructing for every splinter while overlooking telephone poles in the previous admn. Sanity NOW! Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Looks like a couple more judge potentials as well. Trump will be one of the greats.

    • tony caldaro says:

      the Left has to talk about something, to keep the Right scrambling, to avoid getting anything done … can they stall for 4 years

      • mjtplayer says:

        You got it Tony, these bogus stories aren’t designed to do anything except burn time and distract people, making it more difficult to get reforms passed.

        Democrats should embrace some reforms, like healthcare. Obamacare is a disaster, no debate there, but if the republicans pass a bill that won’t fix anything then they will “own” the healthcare mess going forward.

        The larger question is: if no reforms are passed and Trump loses the next election, then what? If an outsider like Trump can’t force change upon Washington, then who can? This is the REAL risk, it’s the risk that nothing changes, thus people will begin to lose faith and confidence in the system, process and government as a whole – just like what’s happening in Europe today.

        There’s nothing more destructive than a loss in confidence.

      • H D says:

        The “right” investigated Benghazi for over 2 years…. Give me a break about moving on. I’ve never seen more people embrace treason than the current GOP. How many on Trump campaign lied about Russia? All of them. And how many US Presidents worked this hard to fight US intel findings to spin the innocence of an enemy? Healthcare? GOP has campaigned for 6 years on repeal and replace on day1. No plan, no ability to govern. Pathetic. Defeat ISIS in 30 days? He’s golfed 35 days. Just think you are on the wrong side of history defending Trump the pssy grabber as “one of the greats.”

        • travis01 says:

          HD I admire ya bud but really? Every potus is limited by Congress and no one will get all of their promises done in 100 days…never have. And never has a sitting Prez had to fight the former prez and media like now. Obama is being silly. If they campaigned on “I’ll do the best I can in 4 years” they would all lose. Benghazi was factual, Russia is subjective. Did people talk, yes. Conspire, continuously disproven. GOP will continue to do more good than Dems did under Obama in 8 years. I’m a Rep but voted first term Obama but he simply was a puppet who displaced us a decade or so. Trump isn’t the answer but he is the current solution. Right now it’s just fix what’s broken, and next several years – if given the chance – it’s leap forward. But I’m not sure he will get the time. We cannot radically change our direction every 4-8 yrs and expect progress. I do know that even Barry campaigned on broken promises and further destroyed the middle and lower class. Those stats don’t lie and I believe what is the core reason Trump won… Barry failures. But I like an open mind, and discussion.

          • H D says:

            Hey Travis-open mind and discussion! Agree. If Russia isn’t factual why did Flynn resign? And I genuinely hope the GOP does do good. History doesn’t support that conclusion but I’m a patriot first and foremost. Just think some are complaining about the same ole now that the shoe is on the other foot. Convenient. Democrats need to get their act together too but they’re not in power.

            • The “Russian involvement in the election” is an absolute and total hoax. The Democrats cannot accept the fact that they lost the election and are trying to push Trump out of office by seditious means. This is a threat to the whole system of republican democracy that has been built since 1776-1789. The Republicans tried to fight Obama’s agenda but not in a by means on this scale. The Republicans were wrong to try to impeach Clinton but it was just retaliation for the political lynching of Nixon in Watergate.

            • Flynn resigned because the Democrats and their media cronies were holding the Administration hostage over the issue, which in itself amounted to nothing.

          • jjjzzzwww says:

            There’s nothing subjective about the failure to disclose meetings with foreign nationals on national security clearance paperwork. There have been way too many to be a coincidence by so-called smart people.

        • lunker1 says:

          HD you’re smart enough to know it’s politics and they’re all full of shit

          • fotis2 says:

            Spot on Lunker I’ve stopped watching news channels for the same reason bubblegum for the brain.

            • lunker1 says:

              The news is just the bad news. Often the headlines are the fake bad news. And maybe one feel-good story. Most of it’s just noise

  23. bfquant says:

    Pretty clear parameters. Thank you Tony.

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