Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -158

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:15 the ADP was reported lower. Then at 8:30 jobless claims were reported higher, and the trade deficit narrowed. The market gapped down to SPX 2424 at the open, and continued to decline. The market had closed at SPX 2433 yesterday. At 10am ISM services was reported higher. Just past 10am the SPX hit 2413 and started to rally. The rally lasted until 1:30 when the SPX hit 2423. Then market declined again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2408, then closed at 2410.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.85%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.95%. Bonds dropped 7 ticks, Crude rose 20 cents, Gold was flat, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2385 and 2336 pivots, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls (est. 180K) at 8:30.

The market gapped down at the open today, breaking the streak of only gap up openings for the past three weeks. After hitting SPX 2413 the market bounced, and then headed even lower in the last hour of trading. A SPX downtrend was confirmed today by OEW. With three of the four major indices now in confirmed downtrends we only await a downtrend confirmation by the DOW. The March, 2014 scenario appears to be playing out. Still expecting this correction to find support between the 2321/2286/2270 pivots. Short term support is at the 2385 and 2336 pivots, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day quite oversold. Best to your trading!


LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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158 Responses to Thursday update

  1. fotis2 says:

    Good place to short NAZ

    • phil1247 says:

      not for me buddy
      i need to see /nq 5649 fail
      then i am with you !

      • fotis2 says:

        You waiting for the ext. counter trend long to fail at the daily HWB short which is the correct method according to the system.I’m jumping the gun here have noticed of all the trade setups the highest probability ones are those that look like Bear/Bull flags hitting support/resistance note the daily Bear flag on NAZ daily the entry will be right at the tip with a stop just above the 61.8 however you are absolutely right to follow the correct disciplined procedure something which I am still lacking.

  2. captbara says:

    Look at yen, very nice monthly H&S. UJ and other yen pairs will have some good mojo here.

  3. gary61b says:

    gary61b says:
    July 6, 2017 at 11:45 am
    ES, spx with one more trip down to next big support should provide a pos. div. If it does and price moves from 2407 ES, I think we see 2440 on the ES to finish b with c starting down.

  4. cmucha68 says:

    Up to 2440 and down we go till September

  5. ariez5 says:

    At 2426, this B wave counts perfectly as 5-3-5, gets hourly RSI close to 70, completes .618 retrace of decline from July 3 high, and gets into the 2428 pivot range.
    I think that’s all she wrote.

  6. tommyboys says:

    FDX bullish chart – gonna hook higher next weeks – represents a bullish cyber economy picking up steam.

  7. H D says:

    2428 pivot time!

  8. vipulm555 says:

    Some one asked me yesterday , question on divergence.

    This is for all those who don’t understand technical analysis.

    Bears , are losers and will always remain .

    • captbara says:

      I think it was 99% bears on here yesterday. Good time to think the opposite whenever that happens.

      Still need ATH next tho, or bear can still be alive. Bulls need to retake 2420 to start.

      • vivelaamo says:

        I don’t think bear is done. It was pretty oversold so a bounce was due but it isn’t that convincing. I think we’ll see more weakness next week with a daily hammer at the bottom.

    • Says the guy who never posted anything technical !!!! LOL.

    • travis01 says:

      Ur so smart you should start a blog or hedge fund 😜… I made money down, then up, and will down. But just a loser

    • mcgcapital says:

      Lol.. this is your problem, you’re creating a you and them type mentality and backing yourself into a corner as a perma bull. No actual traders are ‘bulls’ and ‘bears’ they assess the market objectively and go with the direction of the trend on their timeframe. Fair play if the market makes new highs from this price structure without a significant drop beforehand. But you’re coming across as someone who is punting long and just hoping it comes good with no exit strategy. It’s a bit of a premature celebration when the market is up 0.7% and is still in the trading range. Odds still favour 2400 breaking before 2440-50 as we’ve had holiday closures, fed minutes and strong payrolls this week yet we still haven’t made any progress to the upside. GL

      • travis01 says:

        He just wants to be heard. Anyone actually investing LT isn’t watching and posting all day, and trading ST he would be broke by now. But he’s smarter than everyone. Every decent blog has a few of these and run off others. I stopped posting 2-3 yrs ago but try to learn from those who are better.

        • mcgcapital says:

          Agree.. would be better if people just posted their analysis with some rationale on why they think it will go up or down, where to get out if wrong and a rough target exit price. Far too much excitement from some people when it goes their way and childish comments against people on the other side of the trade

    • stcoleridge says:

      I’m replying against my better judgment but there was NO positive divergence on the SPX 60 min when you said there was. Why don’t to explain here and now what exactly a + divergence is?

      • vipulm555 says:

        Price making new low , but RSI(5) and MACD not making new low on 60 min. Yesterday price tried to penetrate but looking at candle structure it was not going to make RSI lower. So I said wait till end of day.

    • Page says:

      daily noise like crow makes series of loud caws…until somebody responds

  9. vivelaamo says:

    Newbies bear did the trick. Good weekend all.

  10. phil1247 says:

    1207 target hit on gold
    good weekend all!

  11. tommyboys says:

    Trannies new ATH – ding ding ding!

  12. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  13. mjtplayer says:

    Critical juncture continues for bonds, TLT must hold the $123 area or risk collapse.

    Gold and miners join the party, critical juncture there too. Gold must hold the $1,200 area and GDX must hold the $21 area, otherwise risk collapse. Downside target is mid $18’s in GDX should the $21 area fail.

  14. stockop says:

    my bullish oil count: just completed wave 2, beginning wave 3. looks like a pretty clear ABC…A almost identical to C ($2.79=A, $2.75=C), beware bears

  15. Page says:

    Time to buy Gold miners and Oil.

  16. captbara says:

    DXY starting w3 or C to 96-97.

  17. vivelaamo says:

    I’m short Euro. Couldn’t make a new high and that April weekly gap is bigger than my head!!

    • fionamargaret says:

      Rabobank were suggesting 1.17 last night…agree with Stephen that currencies, bonds are tricky.

  18. H D says:

    GM all, nice pop from 2411 pivot, +10 at 10.

    • fotis2 says:

      HD you must tell us one day how you work that one you hardly get any misses man.

      • H D says:

        Thx, but big miss in gold this month. SPX just doing what the bots do. Maybe start with some scalps into that or away from it. Should be able to find 5 points either way. If in context of pattern or count can find more points into or away from pivots and fibs. GL

        • fotis2 says:

          Gold weekly close bellow 1214 would get Bears all excited huge DT on daily CCI weekly weakness ahead longer term could see 1130s again

    • vivelaamo says:

      Wonder what your favourite number is…

  19. travis01 says:

    I believe we will hover +/- 2418 for hour or so into EU closing then start seeing red to 2400 with lil bounce into close. Short till confirmation but expect 2400-2402 test today. Will see

  20. captbara says:

    NQ broke the downsloping TL at 5610. ST 1-2 day B wave bounce?

  21. phil1247 says:


    ding !
    1214 target hit !

  22. vivelaamo says:

    Phil whats your take on Euro?

  23. vivelaamo says:

    ready for fireworks?

  24. phil1247 says:


    in no mans land between 1230 … the ext short resistance
    and 1214 … the extension short target
    until one of those breaks …
    ………..nothing to do here

  25. phil1247 says:


    in extension shorts but the most aggressive extension is under pressure
    sold half SCO just now at 46.49
    will pile on more shorts after the open if it holds when i can put in a stop

    fourth of july peak has been seen over the last few years
    cycle low is due july 15

  26. Richard Glackin says:

    Folks, at this point I don’t think there is any question but that we are in an ending diagonal AND, to complete this diagonal (i.e. ‘this’ wave 4), the S&P must continue dropping into the 2380 to 2390 range. Since they aren’t much more than 2 pts apart that would apply to both ES & SPX.

    Now, Tony noted a very interesting point…the next cycle low is early Sept. Hmmm, that would then mean that we must go back up and complete the original target wave 5 at 2480. Probably early August. Then I would expect to see a little bigger correction complete in early Sept.

    After THAT, we should see the bigger run up! The other comment from Tony that caught my eye was that this is ‘already more complex then…” Yep! It seems the market always likes to throw us a curve ball…extending the time to get where we know it’s going. That’s the thing about EW; it provides the tools to forecast direction and magnitude but never timing.

    Tony, can I ask what tools you like that indicate timing “next cycle low is early Sept”? Thanks.

    • Richard Glackin says:

      To be sure, this afternoon it was unclear to me just how far this market would drop. So, I exited my shorts before market close. Now it seems that after the completion of this ‘abc’ overnight into tomorrow back up – we could have another 20 to 30 pt drop ahead. So, depending on where we are at market open I may or may not re-enter shorts – strictly short term bet. Good luck to all.

    • tony caldaro says:

      we uncovered a cycle that has been working regularly for 2-years
      has little to do with OEW, except it hits the low fairly regularly

    • stcoleridge says:

      You don’t think there”s any question? Tony’s count would appear to disagree with you.

    • lunker1 says:

      ED starting when and where are you counting the waves? Your long description omitted the most important details

  27. purplember says:

    CL after big down day wed, i planned on oil rally thursday but it rallied too high and scared me off 1/2 my shorts ugh..

    • fionamargaret says:

      …purple you have given fantastic calls recently…don’t be too hard on yourself…keep your pecker up x

      • ariez5 says:

        Fiona, do you know what “pecker” means in the US??

        • vivelaamo says:

          and in the UK!!

        • vivelaamo says:

          take that back. Just googled it and in England it was referred to as nose or chin. I’ve always known it as the US version which is why the post made me chuckle.

        • fionamargaret says:

          ..yes, absolutely know the double entendre…thought purple had gone through enough recently, so wanted to give him a chuckle while bucking him up….he is a dear man who helps me…and everyone on the board.
          Sometimes you have to go beyond the words to reach for the feelings someone is saying….but now that purple has gone to the trouble of purchasing viagra……x

      • purplember says:

        i know Fiona meant well but just in case i bought 2 bottles of viagra

  28. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony
    Mowed this evening in the Heartland
    Pretty nice for July , not even close to 100 f

  29. stormchaser80llc says:

    Wednesday I warned “SPX Bollinger Bands are the narrowest I’ve seen since my data goes back to 1970. These conditions can last a bit, but will result in a big move, often times set off in the opposite direction as a fake out. As boring as things look now, this is the time to keep on top of the market the closest. SPX hourly is trading sideways with little divergence on technicals to help out.”

    Big down day today. Breadth also took it quite poorly as far as internals and participation goes. SPX A-D line now below its 20 dma. SPX below its 50 dma. My trading signals are more firmly BEARISH. Yet another real Hindenburg Omen on SPX today, the 4th real one since June and 6th irregardless of the McClellan sign since late May. If you don’t know this technical indicator, look it up. It either shows crosswinds due to strong rotation (late May and early June), and fracturing of the market since mid June).

    Some signs for a bounce, Daily SPX closed below its lower Bollinger Band, SPX hourly at the 2411 pivot, yet has not positively diverged from the low on the 29th. Some weaker positive divergences seen at today’s lows. VIX is on an hourly MACD BUY signal but gave a couple weak negative divergences at today’s peak. My proprietary Technicals Model has put in 2 weak positive divergences of late after 7 big negative divergences vs. SPX since mid April. Not sure oil has peaked yet, todays loss was an inside day compared to Wednesday.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site ( However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

  30. Silver flash crashed down to 14.66 before getting back to 15.88.CBs are hard at work in the overnight hours.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Thanks Fiona. When RJ expects a big move up next week then we all should all take note. The track record of these daily summaries has been the best out there IMO.

  31. ariez5 says:

    Oil getting smoked in early trading. When a stock or commodity like oil cannot stay up on good news (larger than expected inventory draw), it is headed down fast.

    • stockop says:

      that was a pretty big draw but that increase in us production is a pretty huge negative imo, especially since oil has been going down for weeks. i dont personally believe this is the kind of news you are implying, but i do believe that your comment has merit in trading.

  32. tommyboys says:

    FANG got ahead of itself and is now in correction mode. Under the hood everything else looks great. Financials, Healthcare and Micros picking up the slack in a bullish rotation and exactly what you wanna see in strong bull. Transports made an ATH two days ago and all A/Ds remain in bullish trend – even NQs. New highs soon ✌🏼

  33. mjtplayer says:

    TLT held the $123 area that it needed to, now let’s see if bonds can rally as the markets drop

  34. Thanks Tony. Today was a traders paradise with two big opportunities to short. And the market appeared to be very aware of 2411. Since we saw five waves down from 2454 establishing A and three messy waves that I want to view as an abc with a failed c confirming B at 2439, should we expect, at least initially, five waves down with today being the first wave down? Thinking this may be a 5-3-5 until it morphs into something more complex.

  35. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al, OEW downtrend confirmed within 3 days of a Full Moon, summer lull underway, lunacy…!

    • mjtplayer says:

      I have the same count 123, though I’m not sure if your wave 4 downside projection is deep enough for a wave of major degree. I was thinking more like SPX 2,280 or so

      • 123 abc says:

        Previous wave-4 of prior degree was fairly shallow, so thinking the same may occur this time and preserve the trendline support.

        Furthermore, the FTSE only has under 2.70% downside to play with before breaking its count…

    • tony caldaro says:

      is that an end of the world count?

      • 123 abc says:

        Wonderful, first heard that during the end of a ‘Mad Men’ episode.

      • I hope you do the count sometime to satisfy my morbid curiosity. Only problem is some cult might spring up from your research.

        • torehund says:

          Yea, you still have the withesses of Jehova lurking out there, but they have lost some credibility due to previous misses…It would be a big win for both Trump and Kim to sort Things out, and demokrats would hate it…they would prefer to win even if it implied living on planet Mad Max. I go for a WIN WIN Kim and Trump are personalities trait comrades you know🌻

    • Richard Glackin says:

      Nice moon chart!

  36. phil1247 says:

  37. bolderbob says:

    Tony, do you think it is going to take until Sept for this correction to run its full course? It seems like it will be over well before then?

    • tony caldaro says:

      seems odd
      but our next cycle low is not until September

      • bolderbob says:

        My thinking too. Something seems out of whack. I can see 3 possibilities. First, the market goes lower than we think. Second, the correction is short and we get the low in early August. The third is that maybe this is just a very minor correction with one more higher high before the real correction (wave 4) gets started.

  38. missd34 says:

    Today triggered part one of the spx/vix/nymo buy signal. SPX below BB, VIX above, NYMO below.

  39. bfquant says:

    TC. Could any OEW count have us having completed 5 waves up from the Feb ’16 lows?

  40. bfquant says:

    TC. Would love 2270. Do you have probabilities at this point for those three levels you mentioned?

  41. vipulm555 says:

    Last time we fell 34 points market rallied 44 points.

    To all the bears out , I fear no one.

    Will c next week , hope you guys don’t abscond

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