SHORT TERM: slightly higher open then selloff, DOW -168
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher but lost 1.4%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Q1 GDP was reported higher at 1.4%, and jobless claims were reported higher. The market opened 2-points above yesterday’s SPX 2441 and immediately began to pullback. By 10:30 the SPX hit 2429, then bounced to 2436 just before 11am. After a drop to SPX 2417 by noon, the market bounced to 2423 just past noon, then dropped to 2406 by 1:30. Then a decent rally followed to SPX 2426 by 3:30. Then the market backed off to closed at SPX 2420.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.60%. Bonds dropped 12 ticks, Crude rose 10 cents, Gold slid $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2411 and 2385 pivots, with resistance at the 2428 and 2444 pivots. Tomorrow: personal income/spending and the CPI at 8:30, the Chicago PMI at 8.45, then consumer sentiment at 10am.
The market opened slightly higher today and immediately sold off. Last three days: down 20, up 20, down 40. Typical correction volatility. It looks like we can safely state this uptrend ended at SPX 2454 after a 5-wave rally: 2406-2353-2446-2419-2454. The decline from last Monday’s SPX 2454 all-time high has already dropped to the high of wave 1 at 2406. Interesting level to find support. The decline thus far has been a choppy series of waves: 2431-2450-2419-2443-2406, with swings of 20-30 points. No downtrend confirmation yet. But one is likely to occur next week. Short term support is at the 2411 and 2385 pivots, with resistance at the 2428 and 2444 pivots. Short term momentum was quite oversold at today’s low, then rebounded to just above oversold. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend topped?
LONG TERM: uptrend