Thursday update

SHORT TERM: slightly higher open then selloff, DOW -168

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher but lost 1.4%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Q1 GDP was reported higher at 1.4%, and jobless claims were reported higher. The market opened 2-points above yesterday’s SPX 2441 and immediately began to pullback. By 10:30 the SPX hit 2429, then bounced to 2436 just before 11am. After a drop to SPX 2417 by noon, the market bounced to 2423 just past noon, then dropped to 2406 by 1:30. Then a decent rally followed to SPX 2426 by 3:30. Then the market backed off to closed at SPX 2420.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.60%. Bonds dropped 12 ticks, Crude roseΒ 10 cents, Gold slid $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2411 and 2385 pivots, with resistance at the 2428 and 2444 pivots. Tomorrow: personal income/spending and the CPI at 8:30, the Chicago PMI at 8.45, then consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market opened slightly higher today and immediately sold off. Last three days: down 20, up 20, down 40. Typical correction volatility. It looks like we can safely state this uptrend ended at SPX 2454Β after a 5-wave rally: 2406-2353-2446-2419-2454. The decline from last Monday’s SPX 2454Β all-time high has already dropped to the high of wave 1 at 2406. Interesting level to find support. The decline thus far has been a choppy series of waves: 2431-2450-2419-2443-2406, with swings of 20-30 points. No downtrend confirmation yet. But one is likely to occur next week. Short term support is at the 2411 and 2385 pivots, with resistance at the 2428 and 2444 pivots. Short term momentum was quite oversold at today’s low, then rebounded to just above oversold. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend topped?

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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133 Responses to Thursday update

  1. bfquant says:

    Tony – Are grains, per $BCOMGR in stockcharts something to get more excited about now?

  2. kingfrogcash says:

    KASS: An end of quarter market imbalance of $1.6 billion to buy. A heads up

  3. scottycj1 says:

    GARY RODGERS

    I would love a look at your book
    scotty455x@yahoo.com

  4. fotis2 says:

    Happy holidays guys.

  5. torehund says:

    Happy weekend Tony and all. Good reads and some temperamentos, as is usual when bulls and bears meet head on. Hoping for a rally resumption in the lulls of summer.

  6. Is the Fed, letting banks do their buybacks,putting a floor under this market again? (reverse psychology intended).

  7. Jimbo says:

    Unusual behaviour in the $BPSPX the last couple of days.. Its favours more downside

  8. kingfrogcash says:

    Da Bears left early for the beach. Long!

  9. gary61b says:

    ES, looking for a big push to 2435.25 then possible short, might not happen today. it could happen over weekend/holiday, while spx is sleeping….

  10. fionamargaret says:

    Remember the day GS downgraded the FANG stocks, and I said there was a downward bias to July1, and the tech stocks sold off for the first time, well here is the next part of the pattern….
    Down to July 1
    Up until the 10 or so of August
    Down to October
    Up to mid November
    Down to January
    sounds totally wrong, we’ll see….

    • fionamargaret says:

      …so I think it is down today, then upward bias through Independence Day until 10 August..

      • pooch77 says:

        Fiona would it concern you of a strong bounce up today,would you not rather go long off of lows?

      • aahmichael says:

        I’ve mentioned the 47 TD cycle many times, as it’s been in complete control of the market for the last 2 years, alternating between swing highs and swing lows. The last low was on 3/27, and the last high was on 6/02. That means the next time it hits, which is on 8/09, should be a low. So, that’s the opposite of what you’re looking for. As always, cycles come and go, and two years is an unusually long time for a cycle to stay in control, but it still looks good to me…for now.

    • pooch77 says:

      Think we are up until last week of July then down into Oct July should be choppy up down up down,kind of matches with Fiona

  11. If this +div in daily S&P kicks in–like the one in March(from 2322)–there’s 60 points of upside ahead,from the low.That would take it to 2466.Does this have a chance?

  12. bfquant says:

    Anyone know if that tail in $VIX yesterday was real?

  13. vipulm555 says:

    Happy 4th taking off today.
    Beach waves are better

  14. Agree that ES 2428 a BIG level to watch. Bottom of recent trading range and 61.8% retracement of yesterday’s trading range.

  15. phil1247 says:

    phil1247 says:
    June 29, 2017 at 6:47 pm
    Da Boyze

    ok …..what do they have to do to handcuff you in am?

    they will have /ES trading around 2428….
    lets see ………………………

    ok
    its 7:20 AM.now ….. /ES almost hit 2427…..
    close enough for gub mint work ?

  16. Phil 1247:
    I watched a daily analysis video on e-mini addicts and found that I learned a little by doing that. However, to really understand the videos you need to know the definitions of the terminology used and what rules are used to analyze the patterns. There are tutorials for pattern analysis and a glossary for terms, but they are available only to members (paying).
    I looked at the site of the FibonacciQueen and she gives some good explanations and definitions for free. But I suspect there are some differences between her method and the DH method. For instance, I have not yet seen a mention of the concepts of “extension long” and “extension short”.

  17. vivelaamo says:

    Tony apologies for my conduct yesterday on your blog. I had some bad news and took my frustrations out on the internet. Quite immature I admit.

    RUT closed the gap and there is no gaps on the upside I believe. More downside expected with 1367 still the target once 1400 area is breached. Day Traders dream at the moment. Very difficult for those that hold positions for longer.

    All the best.

  18. fotis2 says:

    Think 2400 is the one to watch both a round number and breakout retest if this one breaks today 2322 next after that freefall to retest breakout of Trump rally good place to go longer term long with decent R/R would be the 3rd touch of that trendline low 2200s in circle.

  19. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony and well done you nailed this one again.

  20. stormchaser80llc says:

    BULLS got smacked today, BEARS yesterday. Telling of a top. Those who read my work are familiar with my proprietary Technicals Model, and that it had 7 negative divergences with SPX since mid April. This foreshadows a large change in trend coming. I cannot be certain if we are at the tail end of the uptrend, or have already topped, but what I can say with confidence that a major trend change is happening. Adjust accordingly!

    3 Hindenburg Omens last week before the SPX All Time High. SPX daily is once again below its 20 dma for the second time in more than a month (and tested its 50 dma),settling the day at the lower Bollinger Band. As I have been saying, the Bollinger Band width is as narrow now as I have seen since my data goes back around 1970. Narrow Bollinger Bands, while they can persist for a bit, lead to huge moves. As I have been saying, sometimes the big move starts in the opposite direction of the new trend, and that is why I am still on the lookout for the potential for a SPX new All Time High.

    My signal based on my Proprietary Technicals Model has Been Neutral since 6/9/2017 and my trusty trading indicator went BEARISH on 6/20/2017.

    Money seems confidence of buying the dip, as in HYG (vs treasuries) and somewhat in Oil. The herd is not scared. If/When that happens, thats when BEARS will smile ear to ear.

    Disclosure: Bought SPY SEP 29 2017 245.00 P on 6/23/2017.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com) However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

  21. phil1247 says:

    Da Boyze

    ok …..what do they have to do to handcuff you in am?

    they will have /ES trading around 2428….
    lets see ………………………

    good nite all

  22. Would be looking for an up move to 2444, the bottom of the wedge which we broke down from, failure there down we go, break it up we go. In line with what Phil is saying. If fails I would expect a 3 wave decline to a minimum of 2363 which would be the 1.618 of the 50 point wave down. If over 2444 then new highs and would suggest minute 4 ended today and 2480 would be the upside target. So in my opinion 2444 area place to watch. I’m 50/50 on weather we go up to new highs or lower. Good luck

  23. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony ~ Nice Call
    SPX ~ 10 Week Cycle & Solar Eclipse 8/21 (Int. iv timing low?)
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/EdEPlP4D/

  24. alexh110 says:

    Thanks Tony.
    If this is Int iv, do you have a support level in mind for minor a?

  25. mcgcapital says:

    Amazed by the number of posts still looking up short term not down after today’s price action. I know it’s been extremely difficult to run shorts the last 7 months but this is the first time since the election everything is aligning lower at the same time. Corrections still can and will happen despite liquidity. SPX bounced from the obvious area around the 50 dma, but that’s all it is, a bounce. Major breakdowns on the FTSE and Dax – check out the charts and see how many times we made lower highs and tested a flat base. The base has given way now so there’s no way this is a one day event. Thinking FTSE will be rangebound tomorrow, holding 7300 until after the US holiday weekend but seeing upside capped around 7350 area. If we were to break one way or another tomorrow I would be thinking 7300 rather than 7380 again. Looking for 7100 area eventually for swing longs.

  26. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $EURUSD at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  27. chrisk44342 says:

    Hi TC. Just wondering your thoughts on something. If EW was originally a reflection of sentiment, but we don’t live in a ‘market’ driven by setiment any longer, hoe does one assess the original underpinnings of EW vs where are today? What about OEW? Is it not also a reflection of sentiment, or do you feel it’s more like cyclicality?

    Thanks
    Chris

    • tony caldaro says:

      Everything contributes to investor confidence.
      Bots, Quants, even QE.
      The markets are not local anymore, they are worldwide.
      When ones local market does not look promising you go elsewhere.

  28. Very well analyzed Mr C,though why does it feel like this could be a fakeout again–especially if Republicans get their act together?IF–the operative word.GDX has a huge support level at 21.75.Avi is sweating that one out again…lol.Later.

  29. Tony you stood your ground in a very difficult environment and proved to be right in your thinking that a top was in and the direction was down. Kudos my man.

  30. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony, just checking in…

  31. Hi,thanks Tony
    Bullish wedge break was not confirmed
    Triangle’s TA is still valid if 21k is not broken
    https://invst.ly/486fc

  32. Mary773 says:

    Thank you, Tony, and congratulations, To the best of my knowledge, you are the only analyst who has accurately evaluated this current pattern. Well done.

  33. torehund says:

    Tony caught the decline, congrats. I thought wrongly that the 60 min macd weaknes ongoing since beginning of June had finished, but it hasnt. Now macd is in NEG territory and could fall to minus 10 Worst case testing a previous negative bottom. That said the decline was resistance less and brisk. So hopping for a turn up in not so long…🐸

  34. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.

  35. 123 abc says:

    Excellent OEW calls, great work Tony et al, much appreciated.
    Exuberance on the blog expressing a market turn…? πŸ˜‰


  36. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. Top analysis, blog and person!

  37. Trader T says:

    Hi Tony, Thanks for all the guidance.
    Is that positive divergence on the daily timeframe, anyone?
    Combine that with hourly oversold, and perhaps a final push up tomorrow?

  38. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/tosmx/item?id=Yn14oC&image

    /ESU7

    Dr Evil target in jeopardy….. does anyone know why i call it that ?

    2416 over and over again…. why?
    probably going to see 2436 again also

  39. H D says:

    Market is listening to you Tony. Great numbers from your weekend ST update 2406, 2419.
    Thanks for all the excellent work!

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