Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening rally, DOW +144

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.3%. US index futures ignored all that and were higher heading into the open. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2433, dipped to 2428 in the opening minutes, then resumed the rally. At 10am pending home sales were reported lower. Around 1:30 the SPX hit 2443, then went sideways for the rest of the day to close at 2441.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.45%. Bonds slipped 2 ticks, Crude rose 55 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Tomorrow: Q1 GDP (est. 1.2%) and jobless claims at 8:30.

The market gapped up at the open today for the second day this week. Normally this kind of activity occurs during an uptrend. Due to Tuesday’s selloff, however, the SPX is barely positive on the week. The short term action since the June 9th SPX 2416 low continues to look corrective. Three-waves up: 2444-2419-2454, three-waves down: 2431-2450-2419, and now this rally. The NDX/NAZ continue to look choppy as well. Short term support is at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Short term momentum rose from being quite oversold yesterday to overbought today. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend topped?

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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171 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Bud Fox says:

    Tony…especially, enjoyed reading the intial/long term market comment.
    Feel, that reading of the long term – was especially helpful. Congrats,
    and thank you……Bud

  2. vipulm555 says:

    As expected afternoon we did short squeeze.

  3. cmucha68 says:

    I guess we could even close near 2430

  4. cmucha68 says:

    If we close around 2420 market should move back to 2440 again.

  5. my 2304 ish call last night looks pretty darn good if I don’t say so myself. Back to new highs all.

    • gary61b says:

      nice call, can you show what brought you to that conclusion?

      • nothing fancy. from 2453 high we had 1 wave down to 2419 34 points then wave 2 was .618 up to 2440 need 1 more down right. A=C at 34 so 2340-34= 2406 c is usually bigger, lots of support at that area.100 day MA is 2302 50 day MA is 2409. Now we count at least 3 waves up from 2404 if your bearish and 5 up if your bullish. I personally think what ever 4th wave we were in finished today. the tell will be after the 3rd wave up.
        Yesterdays wave up was concerning but fit it the parameters. shorted at 2438 my stop was 2447 I am not long nor short at the moment. have a great July, wish everyone the best

    • captbara says:

      2403 you mean? Cmon give us the play by play. EW, astro, or darts?

    • vivelaamo says:

      I like your style! Kudos to your trading.

  6. Tarun Varma says:

    Tony, Is it possible that int iv just completed @ 2406 today with a (a-b-c) pattern since int iii high. Similar pattern to minor iv?

  7. captbara says:

    Back to the line in the sand, 2420. Kiss goodbye time or too soon?

  8. UPDATE: Spx futures are trying to regain their footing at 2411, but “official” market bottom low is not till beginning of next week and the indicators are not ripe yet for a real rebound. The holiday on the 4th confuses things, so the rebound could be as early as tomorrow, or as late as next Wednesday. Waiting, as always, for a buy signal. I expect a day or two of consolidation, otherwise the retail buyers have not learned their lesson yet.

  9. kvilia says:

    If GDX does not bounce here hard, which I think it will not, expect it to test lower trend line of the giant bull flag around 19.6.

  10. vivelaamo says:

    I’m long RUT after gap fill. Will keep adding now even if we fall. Of course it’s only a demo account so it’s all good.

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