Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening sold, DOW +15

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 durable goods were reported lower. The market gapped up to SPX 2446 at the open and rallied to 2450 by 10am. The SPX had closed at 2438 on Friday. After SCOTUS announced they were allowing some of the travel ban to go into effect the market sold off. By 11am the SPX had closed the gap and hit 2437. After that the market rallied to SPX 2444 by 1pm, then pulled back to close at 2439.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.35%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude added 45 cents, Gold dropped $11, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9am, then consumer confidence at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today, just like last Monday and the Tuesday before that. While last Monday’s gap up put in the uptrend high thus far, today’s and other one were sold off. During uptrends gap up openings set the stage for higher and higher prices. Two of the last three have not. The short term wave pattern, since the SPX 2416 low on June 9th, continues to look choppy: 2444-2419-2454-2431-2450-2437 so far. The SPX 2454 level continues to look like a potential Intermediate wave iii high. The NDX/NAZ have not made new highs since their June 9th selloff. It looks like we can now tighten the breakout/breakdown range to SPX 2431 and 2454. Short term support is at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day below neutral after getting quite overbought. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend topped?

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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120 Responses to Monday update

  1. Page says:

    Correction?

  2. stcoleridge says:

    Is the ED option still valid if today’s 2424 low holds?

  3. phil1247 says:

    /cl 44.62 next target

  4. tommyboys says:

    So far relatively weak drop – indices not telling the whole story. NYAD & NAZ AD only about 1.2/1.5 negative right now. Hardly a landslide. Could actually be positive by close.

  5. Mary773 says:

    Superb analysis, Tony. Thank you so much for sharing it.

  6. vivelaamo says:

    Newbie last chance to take the bet…

  7. llerias7 says:

    Nasdaq tanking for good…

  8. phil1247 says:

    tore

    just sold TBT at 35.02
    did you buy yesterday

  9. kvilia says:

    Hope you all BTFD because we are going to da moon. Hope you will find this post helpful – enjoy the ride. Oh, and one more thing – BTFD if you have not done so.

  10. recent pull backs have been 25 and then 23, as long as 2425 holds on or at the close i will be a buyer for 1 more up move.. Otherwise Newbie time and time to short

  11. UPDATE: Rising interest rates => Markets down to the next level.
    TB hourly futures –
    http://imgur.com/a/m5Iar
    NDX hourly futures –
    http://imgur.com/a/Wwtl8

  12. vivelaamo says:

    Come one Newbie. It’s for a good cause!

  13. STEPHEN BARTLETT says:

    Mentioned looking long at the uk miners. They have started to move. I think they go higher. Dollar yen in wave d of a triangle. e down then big dollar up move.

  14. phil1247 says:

    question

    why did spx go back and test 2432 before moving up to DR EVIL target ?

  15. fotis2 says:

    Kvilia still long CL?Nice catch buddy.

  16. purplember says:

    sold DWT (short) CL and went long CL with UWT this morning

  17. H D says:

    2$+ rally in oil off symmetry and Nov low. #urwelcome Widowmaker for the shorts :mrgreen:

    • phil1247 says:

      moneymaker …. for everyone

      • H D says:

        ha, not for everyone. I’m not sure how those etf’s work but you can’t hold CL against for $2. Nothing against ur method but you actually posted “no chance for a rally”.

        • phil1247 says:

          crude collapse continues
          no chance of any rally until extension short breaks at 43.55

          above is the ENTIRE post ……………….from weekend

          HD .
          . you obviously dont understand how DH method works
          maybe because your initials are backwards ? 🙂
          43.55 broke monday
          ergo rally now possible
          long from lows held

          went long UCO yesterday at 13.16 ….. now at 13.73
          as always trade ticket is available for your viewing pleasure

          • H D says:

            good 1. Very familiar with DH. HWB is a friend to everyone. Not exclusive to him.
            Never need a ticket amigo, ur word here is good. Just confusing when the post directly below says “10% short now” GL

            • phil1247 says:

              its called scaling out
              i dont believe in all or nothing
              scale out of shorts and into longs
              not difficult to understand really

            • kvilia says:

              Ha-ha, DH – you are dealing with Phil fast pistol here. Sometimes he goes long while still typing short message LOL. But I’ve seen folks who are happy with 10 pips. All depends on the size of you trade.

  18. who is driving the bus today? SPX with the triangle D finishing up and a break below 2428 the Dow or the NDX to break. My guess is SPX and we are on upward in the E wave.

    Good luck all

  19. phil1247 says:

    /CL

    SCO losing embedded stochastic
    took off more after hours .. only 10% short now

    break above daily short at 44.04 starts face ripper squeeze
    think 45 minimum . 18d sma
    .. possibly up to 52

  20. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/tosmx/item?id=TrJdQz&image

    /ZN

    ten year notes beginning to crack
    canary for 30 yr?
    this divergence has kept me wary of 30 yr bonds… altho they still look ok
    buying dips and selling rips

  21. vipulm555 says:

    Happy 4th. Fireworks from GOP this time.

  22. vivelaamo says:

    Newbie fancy a wager? If SPX hits 2400 before a new all time high in hours i will donate $100 to a charity of your choice. You do the same if we hit all time highs first.

    Deal?

  23. soulsurfer says:

    thanks tony!

    chop, chop! Maybe a large EDT is forming on the S&P500?

    https://investingintelligent.com/2017/06/26/is-the-sp500-forming-and-ending-diagonal-triangle-5th-wave/

    Trade safe folks!

    Soul

  24. Quick Ira update:Gold and GLD bearishly embedded.Silver WAS,but is trying to escape.A positive day today and it should try to rally to 179.GDX WAS embedded,escaped–and could get up to 23.04.(Believe it when I see it.)
    Bollinger bands on SPX are 18 points apart.Big move coming someday.Dollar not bearish.Crude COULD escape its embedded reading today.A rally should follow of a couple dollars.
    Ira reported that gold was hit with a “fat finger” trade overnight.Uh huh.A total mistake.Was it Draghi’s fat finger or Yellen’s?
    Good night all.

  25. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/tosmx/item?id=ZhJFAo&image

    SPX

    Dr EVIL target 2466.6


    bullish above 2421… if broken ….support drops to 2372

  26. stormchaser80 says:

    Things seem to continue on track with no earth shattering changes today.

    The trading signal based on my Proprietary Technicals Model continues its NEUTRAL stance since 6/12/17. And my favorite trading signal went BEARISH on 6/20/17. Friday, I bit the bullet and bought a bunch of SPY September Puts. I still believe a higher high may come, based on how strong SPX hourly technicals were at the last high, and a negative divergence would be nice. Today’s short spike higher on SPX hourly shows some yet weak life left. However at the Daily and Weekly scales, all the negative divergences are in place.

    I want to also point out that the SPX Daily Bollinger Band is near its historical tightest. This fits my volatility model which puts the market at 1.9% more volatile than every trading day since 1990. Things happen, sometimes quickly in this situation. A lot of time I have observed that the first big move is a fake, so in this case a jump to a new All Time High, only to quickly reverse and crater. I am not saying that’s exactly what will happen, but I will be watching for it, and today see no reason to change my views here.

    Thursday I started talking about Hindenburg Omens, look it up if you are not familiar with it. It is usually applied to the NYA, but I calculated the amount of stocks that have to have new highs and lows for the SPX, and use the SPX McClellan. Anyways I like it because it’s a technical indicator of crosswinds. There were 2 in late May and early June, though McClellan was positive. This was a sign of strong rotation. But what piqued my curiosity were the 3 consecutive true SPX Hindenburg Omens 6/20-22. After such a run up since the election, the increasing deflation on TLT:TIP, weak oil during its strongest season, and tightening yield curve, this really shouts WARNING to me.

    My proprietary Technicals Model has 7 negative divergences vs. SPX since late April. Something big is brewing.

    VIX, although well off May-June lows shows low trend. But this too is a positive divergence vs. SPX as SPX is near All Time Highs and VIX is off its lows. Breadth indicators remain in the green for the most part, however are much weaker than prior legs up in the market. Oil looks to need one more low before any hope of a tradable bounce.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com) However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

    • bfquant says:

      An e failure? !

      • 123 abc says:

        If 2431 is taken out before 2454, then either…

        A. The uptrend ended at 2454 via…
        i. a failed Flat wave-4 at 2419, and
        ii. an impulsive wave-5 at 2454.

        …or…

        B. The uptrend ended at 2450 via…
        i. a Sharp wave-4 at 2416, and;
        ii. an Ending Diagonal wave-5 consisting of a wave-e failure at at 2450.

        Feel that either is acceptable, but would prefer (A) for simplicity —keep it simple right?! 🙂

  27. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #GOLD at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  28. captbara says:

    Time to rotate to small caps, EM, Japan, short yen I think. USD bottomed

  29. Thanks Tony. As has been discussed, if we were to treat 2416 as a zigzag then we would have the room and counts to say we likely have a failed Minute 5….and the onset of Int III. If we keep 2419 as a failed flat, how would we label what has recently been seen ….letters or numbers? In any event, I think we are going down for a bit. Over the weekend, I inadvertently discussed at length material you had already treated in depth, resulting in duplication. But I did suggest 2454 was nothing more than a 1.318 extension of 77 beginning at 2353. Agree????

  30. UPDATE: The problem is that the markets are already breaking down and we have two weeks of market cycle bottoming before us.

  31. If this is an intermediate correction, how big of a drop do you expect? Back to the previous wave 4 low at 2330?. Or lower?

    • tony caldaro says:

      When this uptrend concludes an Intermediate wave iv downtrend will unfold. Since Intermediate iii took five waves/trends to unfold: June 2016 – June 2017. The downtrend/correction to follow could be the largest of the entire bull market. The corrections since February 2016 have been about 5%, and about 80-120 SPX points. If the recent high at SPX 2454 ended the uptrend, then initial support should be at the 2321, 2286 and 2270 pivots.
      https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/06/24/weekend-update-610/

      • fionamargaret says:

        Thanks Tony, your pivots really help…all I have is numbers, and direction (just not all the forks in the road). x

  32. vipulm555 says:

    Again Tony , uptrend topped?

    With all bears , gap up should trap all bearish views

  33. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. Watching the range closely. Matter of time we break out of it.

  34. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

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