Thursday update

SHORT TERM: flat opening then drift, DOW -13

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and at 8:30 jobless claims were reported higher. The market opened 1-point above yesterday’s SPX 2436 close, then drifted down to 2433 by 10:30. At 10am leading indicators were reported higher. After hitting SPX 2433 the market started to drift higher. At 1pm the SPX hit 2442, held until the last hour, then dropped to end the day at 2435.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude added 20 cents, Gold rose $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Tomorrow: new home sales at 10am.

The market opened 1-point higher today, dipped to SPX 2433, rallied to 2442, then ended the day at 2435. The third consecutive 10-point range, non-eventful day. We are, however, observing some potential negatives for this uptrend. If the SPX had a failed Minute iv flat at 2419, that one wave rally to 2454 could have been it for the uptrend. Adding to that possible scenario is the constant negative weekly RSI/MACD divergences, and the recent negative daily RSI/MACD divergences at that high. The NAZ has rallied in three large-scale quantified waves off of its recent 6108 low. Something it has not done during the entire Nov-Jun uptrend. This suggests the recent rally is corrective. And, the NAZ still displays negative RSI daily/weekly divergences off the recent 6342 high. Looks like it is time to again get a bit cautious short/medium term. Short term support is at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Short term momentum reached oversold at the close. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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85 Responses to Thursday update

  1. 123 abc says:

    hey Tony, no Friday update? Hit the bar too soon?! 😉

  2. captbara says:

    RUT never wavered. Tense but good show today 😃

  3. vivelaamo says:

    Kvilla losing money on his shorting and taking it out on me 😔 It’s not my fault.

  4. fotis2 says:

    Nasdaq bearflag could be decent R/R short entry for back to lows here.

  5. torehund says:

    Choppy song for you…
    Good weekend Tony and all.

  6. kvilia says:

    So, I don’t have to check the BBs to understand they are super tight now. The move will be swift. Oil is in the same company.

  7. mjtplayer says:

    Possible bottom in coffee yesterday/today, taking a shot on the long side via JO

  8. vivelaamo says:

    Pull back seriously done? Wow

    • kvilia says:

      Vive, are you lonely and bored? Have a drink, relax and do something useful. If you have not noticed, people are posting here either trading ideas, charts and their analysis or bear pictures. Stick with either one.
      Markets are summer/pre-holiday slow and are getting ready for a decisive move that may or may not happen before 4th of July.

  9. captbara says:

    NYMO buy working well so far. Captbara proprietary Blog Tracker signal also triggered buy yesterday.

  10. vipulm555 says:

    With no disrespect to Tony.
    But over years when Elliot calls for Top , except one day plunge . Nothing really happens.

    I have never seen any one call actually get right on SPX.

  11. vipulm555 says:

    Nasdaq high of day. Squeeze on .
    long Nasdaq trailing stop

  12. Here’s a theory:TLT is embedded for the 3rd time this year of more than 5 days duration.When it UN-embedded in January and April,S&P took off.A repeat coming?It has to sell off enough to find out.Later.

  13. phil1247 says:

    a whole lotta nuthin here
    have a great weekend Tony
    and everyone on the board
    see ya next week!

  14. vipulm555 says:

    Not trading today.
    But if we close high of day.
    Open position at end of day.
    Monday gap up should squeeze all the Bears out there

  15. vivelaamo says:

    Chop suey. Against all my better judgement I’ve added to RUT shorts. Stfr worked so far this week.

  16. kingfrogcash says:

    big banks are back

  17. tommyboys says:

    Anything can always happen but all this bearish talk is not being reflected in sentiment – one of the most important drivers of markets imho. Greed/Fear has been hanging right about 50/neutral for weeks and AAII has been pretty much dead nuetral for the same with Bullishness actually several points BELOW LT average. Can’t see any huge move down with this kind of sentiment. Looks much more like a consolidation period than anything FWIW.

    • mcgcapital says:

      Tommy.. I wrote a paper a few years ago on sentiment for work and considered those indicators. I couldn’t see any correlation between the fear and greed index and what the market was doing. With the AAII survey, when the number of bears got too high it gave a consistently good buy signal. The number of bulls didn’t seem to matter so much in that it can always go higher regardless. I think it makes sense that the neutral number is higher than normal as volatility has been so low. All that’s happened for the last 4 months is we’ve added 1.5% without any major moves in either direction so people aren’t overly excited either way. Fund managers have been overweight Europe and underweight the US recently according to the BoAML survery so it would make sense for the Us to outperform. Europe has started a correction the last week or so as risk is clearly being pared back so it does look like a correction is underway although it will
      probably be limited in size

  18. phil1247 says:



    ten year note short has traded
    holding on to 18dsma by a fingernail
    want to short but havent pulled the trigger yet
    if stocks crumble..
    ten year note could catch a bid and break short

  19. phil1247 says:


    gold has been bullish since 1244
    1259 target hit sitting on downtrendline
    bull above 1252 is next MM in the series
    target 1262
    which is near the short .50 entry of 1263..
    and 18 d sma
    .. ie battle ground

    yes…. i am long gold

    • mjtplayer says:

      I have no position in gold right now but think we bottomed Wed at $1,241 and the rally underway should last into July. Upside resistance at $1,275 will be critical

  20. vivelaamo says:

    We could see all the bears out in full force today. Dancing like crazy!!

  21. Richard Glackin says:

    Yes it’s entirely possible that following the ‘ABC’ subsequent to the wave III peak that we had an ‘abc’ wave 5. Albeit wave 5’s are most often 5 waves. Then there is Tony’s comment that these small up moves could be corrective. Hmmm, I have to say that I remain with 123abc in the diagonal camp. All waves in an ending diagonal are corrective (3 wave moves). AND, as noted earlier, the S&P is STILL within the confines of an ending diagonal.

    Furthermore, Stephen Swanson with a little help from tryingtomakeabuck provided another source for an ending target…2459. This is entirely consistent with the target ‘look’ of the ending diagonal. (Thanks guys).
    FYI, wave ‘A’ 2443.50ES, wave ‘B’ 2416.25ES, wave ‘C’ 2451.50, wave ‘D’ 2428.00 and now, looking for something approaching 2459 for wave ‘E’. I’ll be looking to sell longs and short the market just before that peak…right around Tony’s pivot point. Good luck all.

  22. Bud Fox says:

    Comments on VRA, please. Interested in it for investment purposes.
    Hold 1-4 years, expected. Your comments, on the value, and outlook
    of VRA. Would be appreciated….Bud

  23. stormchaser80llc says:

    My tune hasn’t changed today though some interesting thing happening under the hood. The trading signal based on my Proprietary Technicals Model continues its NEUTRAL stance since 6/12/17. And my favorite trading signal went BEARISH on 6/20/17. While negative divergences are set on the daily and weekly timeframe, the hourly timeframe of SPX should make higher highs in order to put in negative divergences with its technicals. Never guarantees, but more likely than not that this happens.

    I failed to mention during the past 3 trading days, Hindenburg Omens were triggered on SPX. Google it. Its good because its based on technical analysis. It means a lot of cross flow of money. The smart money leaving as the dumb money comes in. Always a caution when we see these after a large leg up. This corresponds to the 7 negative divergences that my proprietary Technicals Model has made vs. SPX since late April. Something big is brewing. I am looking to short with SPY puts but hope that price goes up first.

    VIX, although well off May-June lows shows low trend. But this too is a positive divergence vs. SPX as SPX is near All Time Highs and VIX is off its lows. Breadth indicators remain in the green for the most part, however are much weaker than prior legs up in the market. TLT:TIP shows deflation is getting out of control, as the flattening yield curve is bad for the economy. Oil looks to need one more low before any hope of a tradable bounce.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site ( However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

  24. A couple from Avi:GDX first.
    “Price pattern sentiment indications and upcoming expectations.
    As you saw from the chart above, the market has now pulled back towards our bottoming target. And as long as the GDX does not break the May low of 20.89, we are set up for a very powerful rally in the coming months.”
    …and S&P:
    “But, please remember that the higher we go, the higher the risk of an intermediate term top. In fact, I still believe we will see the 2300SPX region one more time in 2017, but my preference remains to see the 2500SPX region before we see the 2300SPX region again. Should we see a break of 2410SPX, with follow through below 2400SPX before we see the 2500SPX region, then I may have to assume that we have begun the next consolidation phase, which can take us down towards the 2300SPX earlier than I had originally expected.”

  25. Ira says,the S&P emini would give a sell signal below 2428.He’s worried about a big break in crude.Bonds firmly bullishly embedded.Dollar wandering.Gold needs to get above 1258 to be bullish.Good luck all.

    • fionamargaret says:

      When Ira was on Bloomberg, along with the CME oil traders, technical traders etc., it was mentioned that apart from oil going below 40 in order to have stability later on (glut being used up, with the lack of participants entering), it was mused the price would supposedly be boosted when SaudiAramco came to IPO….I forgot to mention that…
      I could get into credit worries within the oil spectrum, but will leave that, unless you are particularly interested……go listen to Julie London instead and relax….x

  26. jobjas says:

    DJTA – index to watch ( clear waves)

  27. cj32 says:

    cr. CBZ

  28. I assume we will be up tomorrow, my opinion 2450-2458 would be an excellent short.

  29. Thanks Tony and I think your leanings are spot on. Current weakness accords with late June seasonal weakness and considering this alone we should expect to see persistent weakness through the end of the month. The SPX McClellan oscillator is at -30 and typically reverses at -60 to -70 with top to bottom cycles lasting about four weeks unless truncated in which case its two to three weeks and messy. This cycle began in early June, meaning the last high was made at a time the oscillator had already started to roll over unlike the ADL.This also suggests this cycle of weakness will likely last through the end of the month if we choose four week cycle duration, also squares up with seasonality. And, of course, there can be ups downs within the larger cycle. Putting aside wave counts, the prelude to this high is unlike early March when we tagged 2401 but the aftermath is beginning to resemble what followed that high which was revisited two weeks later….but failed. Maybe we visit the area of 2454 in about three to four weeks when I expect to see the “fat” short. Just to be clear, I harbor no illusion of having a crystal ball.

  30. vipulm555 says:

    With all respect, Tony
    What it will take to change u r mind from corrective to implusive.
    What Nasdaq level would you change it

  31. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #OIL

  32. vivelaamo says:

    Inverted hammer on DOW. Will it reverse with a strong move up or continue down? I have to admit I favour the later at this moment in time.

  33. Thanks for the alerts Mr C.Wondering if gold will be a safe haven or not in the equity market correction.Bonds seem decent,but gold and GDX are question marks.We’ll see how PMs trade tomorrow.Good luck all.

  34. phil1247 says:

    Steve Miller band trading advice
    ( 1) at spx 2449.5 target ………..

    ( 2 ) better to be out … wishing you were in
    than in….. wishing you were out

  35. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

  36. bfquant says:

    TC. I hope you are right. Even some sustained volatility would be very appreciated for this “active manager” whatever the market direction.

  37. kvilia says:

    Thanks, Tony. Up or down:

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