Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: cyclical/tech sectors reverse roles, DOW -57

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.3%. US index futures were lower, then higher overnight, and the market opened at SPX 2441. The SPX had closed at 2437 yesterday. At 10am existing home sales were reported higher. By 10:30 the SPX had ticked up to 2442 and then started to pullback. By 11am the SPX hit 2433, bounced to 2438 by noon, then hit 2431 by 2pm. Another bounce into the close ended the day at SPX 2436.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.85%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude dropped $1.10, Gold rose $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Tomorrow: jobless claims at 8:30, then leading indicators at 10am.

The market opened higher today, ticked up, and then pulled back for the rest of the day. While the pullback was not surprising, the reversal of sector performance was. The Techs have been leading the market lower for nearly two weeks, while Cyclicals have made new highs. Today that role reversed, as the Techs rallied while the Cyclicals were moving lower. A 3% surge in Biotech may have helped. No change on the short term count, four overlapping waves from Minute iv at SPX 2416: 2444-2419-2456-2431. Subdividing Minute v or ending diagonal underway? Short term support remains at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Short term momentum bounced slightly off today’s oversold condition. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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94 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. vivelaamo says:

    RUT bounced off 18 dma. Is it really time to STFR!!!

  2. torehund says:

    Concerns not in the market as I see it…its the madness of man. Heard that Australia is fighting Syria, this is going out of control. Who is responsible for this, Trump, Nato or the bots ?

  3. GDX up over 10 d ema (22.33).20d is (22.49).Stochastic at 17.Unless there’s a surge,it embeds.Would be great to close at least over the 10 and ideally,the 20.Then if it embeds,what happens tomorrow?I think Ira said,8f it embeds–then jumps out of it quickly–it’s bullish.So a lot to watch.
    HOs in the past kicked in pretty quickly.This is going to be interesting.
    Good luck all.

  4. captbara says:

    NYMO buy signal will trigger today and ST wave counts pointing up 👌

  5. Richard Glackin says:

    OK, so on the basis that we are now working on the ‘a’ wave of the ‘e’ wave of the diagonal…on both the ES and the cash SPX it looks like either a 1,2,3 now working on wave 4 of ‘A’ OR, that was an ‘abc’ ‘A’ wave and we are now working on the ‘B’ wave. Either way, we are having a little pullback to be followed by the next move up. Hopefully, the internal structure will give us some clue as to where the target is going to be. That’s a BIG need to know for shorting the larger move down.

    • Richard Glackin says:

      Normally, one would simply look at the point where the ‘e’ wave should end at the upper boundary of the diagonal. However, I’ve heard a few things from posters here that make me want to see another indicator that is or is not the right target. Note well, that ‘e’ waves can overshoot or undershoot. Not atypical for ’em to do that.

  6. Another strange day.GDX slow stochastic at 18.Needs above 20 by EOD to avoid a bearish technical situation.Later.

  7. blackjak100 says:

    5 HO signals in 6 weeks as another fired yesterday

  8. kvilia says:

    Lee, would you give us a scoop on CL, please? We know your strengths 🙂

  9. kvilia says:

    Will CL squeeze a bit more? Running out of steam, and that’s not what I want.

  10. captbara says:

    GILD massive 3 year wedge breakout, log scale

  11. gary61b says:

    SPX bounce off of 2427would work for me. ES same but 2425. If it happens today..https://gyazo.com/cf29b213c4d0d55488111ee5721bf3fb

  12. fenster6 says:

    Hi Tony

    how confident are you about your current count? When you posted ‘the uptrend may have ended’ last week, I started loading up on puts and volatility.

    Was down a chunk when the market went back up but now back close to break-even. So keep, get out, add?

    It would be great to hear how solid you think this count is.

  13. vivelaamo says:

    If US indices don’t drop today then this bull is relentless.

  14. Lee X says:

    Gold
    How many now or nevers can it have ?
    Why put so much pressure on it ?

    Dear Gold,
    Whatever you do I support you , it’s not about me.

  15. mjtplayer says:

    Gold potentially made a low yesterday in overnight trading at $1,241. I was hoping for another $6 – $10 lower, but time is just as important as price and the heart of turn window is Tues-Thurs, so a low on Wed is perfect.

    If gold has made a low, resistance for the subsequent rally is $1,275. Gold MUST get through $1,275 to have any hope of a more sustainable rally into July. Above $1,275 resistance is $1,299

  16. Ira says,”If bonds rally tomorrow,they embed.”
    Me:GDX and GLD are watching.They could bearishly embed tomorrow with a poor day.Big day for both markets.Bonds embedding,a possible sell signal for stocks then?I’m not convinced of anything gold does,but a rally tommorrow could be the start of a minor rally.Later all.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Ira was on Bloomberg talking oil, and suggesting oil had to go below 40 to prevent more supply coming online (or was this Bloomberg) from the frackers….seems to be the general consensus.
      My numbers had 41 for the longest time, but the sequences were suggesting lower, so I suggest 37/38, before a turnaround.
      TMF which I suggested going to 25 is getting there….but be careful….
      Gold I like..
      Thanks Learned…watch the Tchaikovsky video, and I guarantee you will be smiling…x

      • I liked it when applause was given,at the beginning,for the fact I clicked on the video.Did you try listening to “Da Capo ” yet (by Love)?.It preceded “Forever Changes”.The first side is tremendous.More rocking than “Changes”.Would I steer you wrong intentionally?lol.

        • All the Tchaikovsky piece needed was Arthur Lee.Some of it could have been on “Forever Changes”.

        • fionamargaret says:

          Actually, I did listen to more of their songs….I like their lyrics, and Lee for his tenacity in keeping his group together…not an easy life…
          In my mind oil has to go down an octave to Ab….

  17. purplember says:

    Gold finally catching a bid higher

  18. fionamargaret says:


    Thanks Chris Kimble

    https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/docs/pdf/2a19fb4f-be6e-4404-b7f8-7a6841dd33f9.pdf
    Thanks Raymond James…..Charts of the Week

    Thanks Tony….and everyone. xx


  19. vipulm555 says:

    Dow bottomed today .
    New highs next

    • bfquant says:

      Jobjas. You show an ending diagonal, but you don’t have any overlap between 1 and 4. I take it this is allowed in your system?

  20. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $RUT at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

    • torehund says:

      Still a fight between daily and weekly oscillator macd. Weekly wants to run but is impeded by the daily, needs a bit of time to sort itself out.

  21. stormchaser80llc says:

    My analysis remains much the same. Yes we made a new SPX All Time High on Monday that I had been calling for. We now have 2 days of retracement. Positive divergences on SPX hourly chart suggest higher prices ahead.

    I am on the record suggesting another new All Time High on SPX is more likely than not, and am basing that on the magnitude of the technical indicators on SPX hourly at its peak. Frankly it would be strange not to put in negative divergences before a major top. SPX Daily doesn’t have this problem, and neither does SPX weekly. Just waiting for the hourly chart to finish.

    For the bulls, I would consider holding long to be very risky, unless you sit at home watching tick by tick. I am a swing trader, and am ready to short on any market bounce. My trading signal based on my proprietary Technicals Model Has been Neutral since 6/12/17. My favorite trading signal went BEARISH on 6/20/17. The Breadth indicators have been declining more quickly this week, for example we have had now 2 days of negative SPX McClellan.

    VIX is technically on an hourly MACD BUY signal, but its momentum has been meager thus far. Oil made further lows, confirming my thoughts of lower price compared to its 5/5/17 low. It still looks to need a lower low to set up positive divergences to turn higher.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com) However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

  22. 123 abc says:

    In the Ending Diagonal camp…


  23. Thanks Tony. As I suggested yesterday, we were likely to fill some gaps today which both markets
    did……and then some. From the high of 54, we have given back 23 points or one point more than a 61.8% retracement of the 35 point run from 19 to 54. The overlap which we/you have discussed stems from the “severe” retracements seen in wave 2 and in what I believe is wave 4. We are awaiting 5 of 5, right? And if 5 equals 1 in length (28 pts) it would terminate at 49………making for the perfect storm. My other question, if you will, is does the irregular relationship between wave lengths and high degree overlap suggest anything more than corrective possibilities?

  24. vivelaamo says:

    I think we could see that sharp move down in RUT tomorrow Pooch was talking about. Still looking at 1368

  25. Too early to buy. The first two weeks of July will bring new cyclic market lows. Till then stock market activity will quiet down and a new rally can begin.

  26. STEPHEN BARTLETT says:

    Still short S&P at 2440. I am liking this Nasdaq rally because I couldn’t square the S&P high with a Nasdaq that looked like it needed the highs retested. A few more days like today would be good.
    Uk miners are interesting. Very low risk buy here.

  27. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. Still waiting for weakness to suggest a 5-10% pb as anticipated by many experts on this blog.

  28. vipulm555 says:

    Rotating bull , once oil bottoms market should have fire power to move to 2525

Comments are closed.