Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: turnaround Tuesday, DOW -62

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.5%. Also overnight FED vice chair Fischer gave a speech in the Netherlands: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20170620a.htm. US index futures were lower overnight and the market opened 6 points below yesterday’s SPX 2453 record close. Around 12:30 the SPX had declined to 2440. Then after a bounce to SPX 2445 by 1:30 the market traded down to SPX 2437 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.80%. Bonds gained 8 ticks, Crude lost 90 cents, Gold dipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Tomorrow: existing home sales at 10am.

The market opened lower today, then traded down to SPX 2437. This represents a 17-point decline from yesterday’s SPX 2454 all-time high. Short term, the rally from Minute iv at SPX 2416, is now starting to look like four overlapping waves: 2444-2419-2454-2437. Minute v subdividing further, or a diagonal triangle in the making? Short term support drops to the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Short term momentum ends the day oversold. Best to your trading! Swarm is up next.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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167 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  2. vivelaamo says:

    Is it just me or does today just seem like consolidation before another blast off?

    • tommyboys says:

      Naz + 42 – consolidation?

    • cyanus66 says:

      Agree, entire month of June has been consolidation. Bull’s not done yet.

    • mcgcapital says:

      Think the main thing is that most of the indices aren’t all aligned in the same direction at the mo. As I trade FTSE I’m feeling pretty comfortable with shorts given the amount of resistance around 7550 and the number of rejections have made it look like an intermediate top. Dax also looks like a reversal. Dow was holding up well until today… if we take out today’s lows tomorrow then the selling will probably accelerate. But I guess the US indices look a bit more salvageable if they can put a rally together

  3. Looks to me like Fed “double speak”: Now that QE is to be taken back, they (the PPT), mortified of the consequences, are in fact “shitting in their pants” and buying up all the outcoming stock.

  4. Mr C,question:which index is trying to fake us out?Nas or S&P/Dow?Seems good the Nas is up again.Triple -Div straight ahead though.Thanks.

  5. mcgcapital says:

    FTSE shorts looking good.. hope we can break 7380 soon and set off a deeper pullback. Most people seem desperate to buy the dips still with Dow down less than 1% off the high. Feel like it’s time for the 5% drop now and that the highs are in.

    • Jimbo says:

      Is there a gap to fill on the FTSE around the 7120 area from April?

      • mcgcapital says:

        Yeah, it never filled the French election gap. I’m basically hoping to scale out of shorts from 7300 down towards 7200 and then scale in longs from 7200 to 7100. Think tomorrow is pretty key – today has been bearish consolidation so hopefully an assault on 7380 next

    • Yes, not only the Fed is addicted to intervention, the BTFD-ers are addicted, too. Signs of an unhealthy market when everyone is buying/selling on the basis of external motives which have nothing to do with the ACTUAL VALUE of stocks. Only a crash will send people back DOWN TO THE BASICS! (Armstrong Economics ?!)

  6. vivelaamo says:

    Still waiting for 300 point DOW drop. 🤔 Sorry couldn’t resist 😉

  7. micky says:

    2430 seems to hold ..so far..good RR for a long scalp at least ..on vst support

  8. now that they have everyone excited to be short, rip it higher. and gap it up tomorrow. Covered my SQQQ for a 5 cent loss NDX will be up 1 percent tomoorw

  9. captbara says:

    Bottom here or waterfall mode in play.

  10. kvilia says:

    Is 11/14/16 support going to hold?

  11. phil1247 says:


    if we dont blast thru 42.38 target i am taking 75% profits on SCO

  12. vipulm555 says:

    Buy programs are working on NQ
    Short U will , take home dried paint.

  13. stockop says:

    thinking real hard about longing here… sentiment indicators across the board are saying bottom

  14. Richard Glackin says:

    We are still within the confines of the diagonal.

  15. scottycj1 says:

    Gap projects 2525….if it does not close within 5 days

  16. captbara says:

    No gap fill should be more bullish, leaves more possibilities open. But I don’t think this move is a w4.

  17. vipulm555 says:

    Nasdaq is leading higher go charger

  18. stockop says:

    anyone watching oil and see that 10:30 spike? took every oil stock with it on a mediocre report at best

  19. vivelaamo says:

    Looks like my RUT stop was too tight. This site can put doubts in a person head. I’m on sidelines now.

  20. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Time to sell failed rallies. Vacation until 8/21….Fib time cycle. 😉
    GL All

  21. vipulm555 says:

    Gap fill and up she goes

  22. blackjak100 says:

    4 HO signals in 6 weeks, int top approaching as this one is unlikely to fail since last one did

  23. Richard Glackin says:

    I’ve never seen this site so quiet!

  24. vipulm555 says:

    For all the hype around “FAANG” stocks, none of them were even in S&P 500’s top-30 at the recent peak


    • vivelaamo says:

      Good article. Many have understandably been scarred by 2000 and 2007.

      • Viv, yesterday’s discussion on corrections and pullbacks was interesting. It would be unusual for us NOT to see a 5% to 6% as we saw in 2016, hence bearish tones. Whether a pullback or correction, its statistically likely….hence bearish thoughts and sentiment. As to MA’s, it depends upon speed, depth and duration; fast and shallow you will not likely see; slow, deep and long you will; it all really depends. If it get stuck below the 50 DMA, it would be wise to consider further losses and hedge your portfolio. Just my thoughts to assuage your concerns.

        • vivelaamo says:

          Thanks Stephen. I agree a 5-6% pb maybe due but trying to short a top for that small drop is a risky exercise. I prefer to wait for the drop and go long. Regarding MA history would suggest if there was going to be a larger move down then we would see a lot of deterioration before hand and MA are a good indicator of this.

  25. Jack Sparrow says:

    there is one possible count which may put yestersdat as mid term top…this would be tplacing 4th as a triangle and fifth starting from 2221

  26. vipulm555 says:

    One day doesn’t make trend.
    IT & LT Trend is up , 2525.

  27. UPDATE: Treasuries topping (see -div on chart) could give the stockmarkets a brief reprieve (see potential right shoulder on chart Spx).
    US TB hourly futures –

  28. Head and Shoulders?
    Spx hourly futures –

  29. UPDATE: Next market cycle bottom – July 3-13. Should be some “fireworks” then. Till then the market needs some time to recuperate from present losses!

  30. Ira says Nasdaq failed at the 18d.S&P has one day to re-embed.But the Dow is still bullishly embedded.The dollar keeps banging its head on the upper bb.Could drop to 96.86.”Could” is the operative word.
    Crude hit the lower bb–may bounce,but it’s embedded bearishly.Still,could be a bottom.
    In gold,he expects a bounce because the 100d was violated for the first time in this move.GdX is at his lower target.First day that slow stochastics are under 20.It better make a big move up,imho,in the next two days or GDX could start a freefall.
    Good luck all.

  31. NEWBIE says:

    Time for me to feast on the complacent.

  32. Thanks Tony. Unless we get help from NDX and several other reasons, I think wave 5 of 5 will struggle to put in a higher high. Too much compression and overlap and a highly unfavorable price structure. Looks like we gave up about half of the 35 point gain from 19 to 54 but neither index closed their respective gaps. What do you think the odds are of a higher high?

  33. 123 abc says:

    Missed the Swarm again today, apologies; weather is far too glorious to be in front of a computer. Happy summer solstice; the longest day in the northern hemisphere is tomorrow!

  34. stormchaser80llc says:

    Monday we got the new SPX All Time High I have been calling for during the past several weeks. My trading signal based on my proprietary Technicals Model has been NEUTRAL since 6/12/2017. Now today, my other favorite trading indicator went BEARISH. If you are a swing trader, I feel its time to exit trades. Those Daytrader types may want to hold on for a final high.

    SPX still above its 20 dma, and its Advance-Decline line did make an All Time High as well on 6/19/2017. Breadth remains mostly bullish yet well lower than earlier peaks. The end of the rally is near. However the magnitude of the technical indicators at the SPX hourly top on 6/18/2017 strongly suggests that a higher high has to be put in, in order to develop stronger negative divergences with its technical indicators.

    Oil made a lower low today below its 5/5/2017 price as I have been calling for during the past several weeks.

    A turn in the market is coming. My proprietary Technicals Model put in 6 different negative divergences vs. SPX since mid April. TLT:TIP shows deflation is ramping up quickly once again. And the Yield curve is flattening, with the 10Y-2Y below pre-election levels. The trump bump has passed through the economy and is gone. Only a matter of days until the SPX trump bump falls as well.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com) However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

  35. Hi,
    Tony,BVSP trendline is already broken,and for this reason i’m trying a bearish count ,what do you think?thanks
    DAX,third chart is in semi-log scale

  36. thoth8 says:

    CL-Down trending to $37 price target : )

  37. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #OIL at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  38. xpto31 says:

    Hi tony, how much upside you think DAX ha! Thanks in advance

  39. captbara says:

    Would be cool if we fill the gap and make another ATH. Move up from 2416 is a bunch of 3 wavers, maybe it’s setting up an expanding diag.

  40. phil1247 says:



    this is from the weekend .. couldnt post it

    but guess where we are now??
    right at 97.88…the ext short resistance
    break above it and ol bucky can run up to 100 plus

    yes… i am already short the euro

  41. Richard Glackin says:

    Very perceptive Tony…and, if so, 2456 looks like a likely target. Thanks much.

  42. bfquant says:

    TC. It isn’t a triangle that completed at 2422.88 on Friday morning? In which case, a bull would have this as Wave 2 down from the Friday morning advance to yesterday being 1 wave.

  43. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. Sorry for the number of posts today. I just find it amusing how people on this blog get so bearish so quickly and seem to totally disregard what has gone on over the past 8 years. (This times is different).

    • aahmichael says:

      You do realize that the market never stays the same forever…right? If not, you might want to consult with people who were conditioned to buy every dip from 1982 to 2000, and then bought every dip from 2000 to 2003.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Was 2015-16 a mirage?

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        No he does not realize

        • vivelaamo says:

          Johnny with all due respect you have been saying the same thing since Feb 2016 and even before that. Look what has happened since. The charts speak for themselves. The don’t need me to go on about them. I don’t understand the reason or rational I just watch what happens. That’s good enough for me and has proved very proseperous. If we have a big crash that wipes away 50% of stock market value then yes I will lose everything I gained and more. I hope to be done with trading before that happens.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      I find it funny that over the last three cycles the FED has been pros at facilitating and accentuating bubbles then with arrogance come to the belief that their tools were more powerful than the natural laws of economic cycles and somehow believing they were little responsible for the pop and yet contrary to their horrible track record investors think it’s different this time because they can not distinguish price movement from reality

      • vivelaamo says:

        I was too young during the last cycles to remember. It may well end badly. But I believe there will be plenty of warnings before it does.

        • kvilia says:

          Like calls from you broker?

          • vivelaamo says:

            Moving averages give plenty of warnings for starters and that’s after trendlines break. You see any warnings of a deep correction kvilla apart from the fact the stock market keeps going up?

            • kvilia says:

              Hey, no hard feeling, vive, it’s all fun, right? Tell you the truth, moving averages are not for professional traders IMO, perhaps investors? The problem is that short fused confuse you, and more reliable are lagging a lot. As some of us think, the current wave is running its course, so a 5-10% pullback coming. Soon if not already started, dance at the top is a confusing as well. I started joining the thought that markets are just in the beginning or midst of the advance. Most likely no bear market until at least next year, however, the correction is expected. So BTFD sounds really amateur, as a matter of fact it sounds awful. Trade the fibs, as algos do (just look at Phil :)) and stay safe. One more thing – don’t listen to anyone, its the internet 😉
              And another thing – I am not Newbie but I like him.

              • mcgcapital says:

                It’s true that MAs aren’t going to show where the 5% dips are.. but they seem to work pretty well when considering whether a market is bull or bear. I’m a longer term bear but i don’t expect any more than a 5% (at most 10%) until the weekly MAs level out and flatten which seems some time away still

              • vivelaamo says:

                Thanks for the post. Appreciate it. I’m not professional so I only have one thing to say. BTFD!! 😉

                On a serious note I don’t just buy any dip. I do look for triggers to go long but I confess I do feel
                confident knowing if I get it wrong I will either get stopped out or it will eventually turn.

              • vivelaamo says:

                Also in relative terms 5% or even 10% is just a dip really. It’s hard to call it s correction.

        • Lee X says:

          How dare you for being too young to remember !

          I agree, there will be warnings

          • vivelaamo says:

            Hope you don’t mind my continued posting as long as I keep it respectful? I’ve lost a small fortune trying to short a bull market in the past and it was just like how it is now. I’ve learnt if you can’t beat them, join them.

            • johnnymagicmoney says:

              Just because I say this market is moronic doesn’t mean I’m not net long. I have no shorts right now but I’ve also been long in things like RAI and have been just fine being in defensives and ignoring the S&P and Tesla and crap like that. What I find hysterical are those who are long and have let price dictate their beliefs that things are really good. It happens over and over and over……it’s just a matter of time. The real money has already been made in this market. Go take risk and try to squeeze out a bit more…..not for me. Next big mad money is the bear and the new bull. That’s all in the next three years or so. I think it’s foolish being mad long up here via growth and cyclicals and market indxes. That’s my take.

            • Lee X says:

              I’m in no position to mind, but no I don’t mind.
              Dude I used to post a lot here also
              No worries
              I only ask to let Newbie run free range here.

            • tommyboys says:

              Ditto. Have lost big shorting bulls in the past. Have done ok shorting bears once they were actually underway. I find it interesting how many can ONLY be comfortable and find it justifiable when the market is moving SOUTH. It never “deserves” to move higher – only lower. I was that guy once – or twice – upon a time.

    • pooch77 says:

      Vive not a crash,corretion/pullback and much needed one

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