Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening then new highs, DOW +144

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.9%. US index futures were higher overnight as well. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2443 and continued to rally. The SPX has closed at 2433 on Friday. After hitting SPX 2452 by 10:30 the market went into drift mode. By 1:30 the market had reached SPX 2453 and then started to pullback. At 3pm the SPX touched 2448, then hit a new high at 2454 before closing at 2453.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.50%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude slid 60 cents, Gold dropped $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2444 and 2428 pivots, with resistance at the 2456 and 2479 pivots. No economic reports until Wednesday.

The market gapped up at the open today, rallied to a new all-time high of SPX 2454, then pulled back slightly into the close. With today’s rally past SPX 2446 it appears Minute wave v, despite the lagging NDX/NAZ, is extending. Counting from the SPX 2416 Minute wave iv low we now see three waves up: 2444-2419-2454 so far. This suggests the OEW 2479 pivot is now within the upside range of this ongoing uptrend. Short term support is at the 2444 and 2428 pivots, with resistance at the 2456 and 2479 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought today, then backed off some. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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127 Responses to Monday update

  1. kvilia says:

    Lee – thanks for trying. Did I say I love watching 4th of July fireworks?

  2. pooch77 says:

    yikes 30th

  3. pooch77 says:

    Rut going down,see you at 1315 next Friday 29th

  4. mcgcapital says:

    Some interesting thoughts on when the bubble might end. Personally think that the bulk of the gains are behind us but that it will take many months before we actually top out and sell off by more than 5% or so.

    • kingfrogcash says:

      or a day or two

      Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump

      While I greatly appreciate the efforts of President Xi & China to help with North Korea, it has not worked out. At least I know China tried!
      2:38 PM – 20 Jun 2017

  5. Richard Glackin says:

    Looks like an ‘abc’ 5th of ‘C’ and we’re off to the races.

    • Richard Glackin says:

      Don’t know how the market gives us the expected 5th of ‘C’ as wave 4 has already violated wave 1 in that case. (SPX cash and ES)

  6. stockop says:

    da boys wouldn’t dare pull the rug with a clear as day pennant for all to see, would they?

    • stockop says:

      SPX does not look good at all breaking back down into the triangle. some of u better hope for a stick save between now and tomorrow… nasty charts all around with bad breadth to boot. we get a gap down tomorrow and its an island top in the Dow

  7. cliffuzan says:

    A lot of nerve of this market to trend down throughout most of the day.

  8. cj32 says:

    cr. CBZ

  9. chrisk44342 says:

    midpoint of the bb, next couple of hours will be telling

  10. stockop says:

    SPX triangle retest?

  11. phil1247 says:


    close to target now …
    if we dont blast thru
    taking profits on bonds here

  12. captbara says:

    NYMO preview, blue line. Already under the BB

  13. vivelaamo says:

    All we need now is a Newbie post and we close green.

  14. GdX needs to pull away from the lower bb.Last two times in this spot it went 8 and 5 days,riding the bb down–about a point and a half.Though GDX is up 5% on the year,it doesn’t seem like it.–compared to last years fun.Anyways,mjtplayer should get his 1230,as the dollar moves up.Bonds up too,strangely.Market is a mess,like usual.Casino day today…later.

  15. lunker1 says:

    10AM SPX 10 down from ATH

  16. gary61b says:

    ES I see 2439 as possible long level if it gets there.

    • gary61b says:

      SPX, any one else thinking that w 4 was a triangle and ended 2423 with minute one wave up to 2454 and now in minute 2. overlaps of 2443.75 with three waves up from 2416 is not ew possible.

  17. mjtplayer says:

    Gold has hit a low of $1,243 so far. We’re in the heart of the turn window for gold (Tues – Thurs)

    I’d like to see another $10 or so lower, $1,230 – $1,234 area

  18. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Long Micro 3 😉

  19. mcgcapital says:

    Looking for a break of 7490 on the FTSE to increase probability a correction is underway. This would be the third such break in the last 2 weeks, with each time less time being spent in the 7500-7550 resistance area. Everyone seems to be cautiously bullish looking for one more high but even most bulls think there’s a decent pullback coming soon. So that’s seasonals, technicals and sentiment all aligning for a 4-5% move lower. Also, new spx high yesterday but no follow through.. kind of like when we broke 2400 and only managed 2406 before selling off 2%. Odds are good that we’re getting a 2% or so dip here then can reassess whether it’s going to give us the 4-5%.

  20. purplember says:

    alot of money made off CL by simply watching overbought or oversold on daily chart. still holding 1/2 DWT but getting itchy to sell in next 1-4 days as a bounce is needed

  21. phil1247 says:


    30 yr bonds look ready to push up to target now
    t notes look weak….divergence not good
    ready to sell remaining cash bonds into surge

  22. phil1247 says:


    short has traded … if ext fails at 5755

    look for 200 point ndx plunge to 5580 target

    looking for SQQQ entry

  23. vivelaamo says:

    Morning all and good luck

  24. phil1247 says:


    bullish above extension long .618 level at 2444
    if the extension fails…. support drops to 2416

  25. fotis2 says:

    Crude 41 here we come

  26. Tarun Varma says:

    Tony, are you considering the possibility that 2419 low could be the wrap up of minute iv? In that case we’ve only had 1 wave up.

  27. NEWBIE says:

    Russia officially hung up on the United States on Monday, suspending the “hotline” between Moscow and Washington a day after the U.S. military shot down a Syrian air force jet. It was the latest signal of deteriorating relations between the superpowers, following the zigzagging path of U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump.

  28. Next support for gold 1244.My PO was 1227 for h&s.Ira says bollinger bands in play on dollar at 97.36.Thinks it gets rejected there.Oil may drop to 43 (embedded bearish).A push over 45.30 could set up a bottom.Silver and gold have three days to avoid an embedded bearish situation.Ira looking for a bounce in gold to 1270ish.Dow hitting the bb,but its embedded,so it may ride the bands up,in his opinion.He really didn’t understand the rally today.Shoulder shrug…lol.

  29. Mon morning at 8:05 I posted:

    “I believe that the 10-year yield is not going to go up much and, indeed, may fall below 2.0%.. The Fed is going to be constrained by moderating growth, low inflation, and a flattening yield curve from raising short terms rates much more, if at all.
    The combination of low inflation and continued low interest rates with the recent increase in earnings will soon revive this rally and keep the long-term bull in good shape.
    The NDX will lead the market higher, as it has all year, as soon as it pulls out of it’s consolidation, which may happen today. If we see a confirmation with strong A-D performance in the NASDAQ and NYSE, even if it lags the NDX by a day, then we should see the SPX go to a new high and continue doing so,”

    While my prediction came true, I was disappointed by the NYSE A-D line plurality of only +745 although the NASDAQ A-D line did better with a +964 (out of a smaller number of issues than the NYSE). The NYSE A-D line needs to post readings above +1000 if this rally is to have a strong follow-through to levels above today’s all time highs in the price indexes.

  30. Jack Sparrow says:

    so the fifth of fifth of 3rd will be in play in next couple of days (today was the third of fifth of third) …which means substantial correction coming…good for 100-200 points down move… i think we top around 2470ish in couple of days

  31. vipulm555 says:

    Bears piling , market will keep rising

    They don’t understand PPT

  32. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $RUT at

  33. Thanks Tony. Well they did it and with a lot of panache and little hesitation. There were three sucessive highs today, the first being 2452 where I unloaded the bulk of my longs, believing there would be pullbacks where I could reload. And there were but they were worth only worth 5 or 6 points, were hard to read (upside potential) and none approached your 2456 pivot. The first leg up to 2446 was 36 points (2404 to 2440) and when added to 2416 yields 2452 which I felt would make for a decent trading pivot, particularly given distance already travelled and likely channel resistance. If the yellow channel retains its influence and this move up continues through July, we’re in the 2470’s. For me this is a complete volte-face but, fortunately, I never trade what I think might happen.

    PS I owe you a debt of gradutude for answering my many pivot questions

  34. stormchaser80llc says:

    During the 11 day sideways trading range in SPX I have been clear that I was looking for a new All Time High before a reversal lower. Today we got that new ATH! While SPX hourly technicals show a small negative divergence at today’s highs, they are quite strong so I expect a higher high before the trend reverses. Breadth remains positive but most all measures are much weaker than earlier. An exception to this is the SPX Advance-Decline line which made another All Time High today!

    HYG:IEF bounced to its 20-50 dma, however Oil remained in a sideways/downward trend, which is remarkable on a day like today on the market. The other thing I noticed was VIX was down only fractionally, signaling that more folks that typical are buying protection here.

    My signals remain mixed. The one based on my proprietary Technicals Model remains NEUTRAL since last Monday. But my other favorite signal remains firmly BULLISH, though off its highs. Friday I showed how the economy as measured by the 10Y-2Y is now weaker than election day. This is NO BUENO for the market. All runs come to an end, and with my proprietary Technicals Model making its 6th negative divergence vs. SPX since mid April, bulls should take notice and sell into this final leg of the rally.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site ( However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

  35. Hi,Thanks Tony
    DOW aproaching 22k region,LT target by fibo
    Today a bullish wedge break(if confirmed),which target indicates near that area

  36. mcgcapital says:

    I’m sticking with my view that we’re nearly there and a 4-5% dip is coming. FTSE has built up a lot of resistance up to 7550 and even to 7600 at the all time high. Can’t really see much justification for pushing it higher without a correction as it’s been trying to get through for well over a month and hasn’t managed it yet. Looking for 7200 in the next 2-3 weeks. Seasonality should be favourable to bears as should overbought readings on shorter term charts. Dax is also in a similar position at 12900 and Nasdaq has retraced a significant portion of its sell off so if that’s a b wave it should be dropping soon. Dow looks bullish still but it has done for the last 7 months

    • vipulm555 says:

      Don’t trade what looks.
      Trade what you can to bank

      • mcgcapital says:

        Odds are good it comes off here so worth a go.. if it goes wrong then it means we’re breaking above 7550 tomorrow morning so can just get out of the trade there

  37. vipulm555 says:

    2525 I am coming at ya

  38. scottycj1 says:

    In after hours trading gold is pushing below the main uptrend line from the Dec 16 low to the May 17 low……..someones going to lose his pants

    • kvilia says:

      That’s you, Scotty, if you don’t sell your DUST shortly. As I indicated, I am waiting for a position in miners, GDX could be 19.60 or so, if lucky – 16.5 (dont think its getting there). And I agree, shorting gold before FOMC was a good idea. I could’ve done that but did not – lost opportunity. Opposite direction opportunity is coming up, though.

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