SHORT TERM: gap down opening then rebound, DOW -15
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.6%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.7%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 jobless claims were reported lower, import prices lower, the Philly FED was lower, and the NY FED was higher. At 9:15 industrial production was reported flat, with capacity utilization slightly lower. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2421. It had closed at SPX 2438 yesterday. In the opening minutes it bounced around in a narrow range, hitting 2420, then 2427 by 10am. At 10am the NAHB was reported lower. The market declined to SPX 2419 by 10:30, and then started to rebound. The rebound continued into the afternoon with the SPX hitting 2434 at 3:30. Then a dip into the close ended the day at 2432.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.45%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold slid $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Tomorrow: housing starts and building permits at 8:30, consumer sentiment at 10am, and its options expiration.
The market gapped down at the open today. By 10:30 both the SPX/NAZ took out Monday’s lows, the DOW/NDX did not, then the market rebounded into the OEW 2428 pivot range. An options related resumption of the uptrend? Or just an oversold bounce with options activity tomorrow? Despite the SPX/NAZ marginally breaking Monday’s lows there was no follow through by the DOW/NDX. Still a mixed market with Techs lower, and Cyclicals holding. The key levels to watch are SPX 2416 and 2406 on the downside, and 2444 and 2446 on the upside. A break of the first will likely lead to the second. For now the medium-term trend is still up until those lower levels are broken. Short term support is at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Short term momentum hit oversold this morning, then bounced to above neutral. Trade what’s in front of you!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped
LONG TERM: uptrend