Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening then drift higher, DOW +93

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the PPI was reported unchanged at 0.0%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2436, then ticked up to 2438 in the opening minutes. Then after a pullback to SPX 2431 by 11am, the market moved even higher. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2441 around 3:30 then closed at 2340.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.75%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude rose 40 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Tomorrow: the CPI and retail sales at 8:30, business inventories at 10am, then the FOMC statement/presser at 2pm.

The market gapped up at the open today for the first time in three weeks. The last time the market had a gap up opening it was rallying on its way to new highs at SPX 2409. New highs again? After the opening minutes the market hit SPX 2438, pulled back, and then reached SPX 2441. The DOW made all-time new highs today. The SPX is about 5-points shy, and the NDX/NAZ have retraced 50% of the recent decline. The three times the FED has raised rates during this cycle, a market rally has topped out within +/- 1-day of the event. Will recent history repeat? Short term support remains at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Short term momentum hit overbought today. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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198 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. pooch77 says:

    Only allowed 2 hour pullbacks

  2. looks like we are working on wave 3 of minute 5 up to 2460 area then 4 down and 5 up to 2480 ish. didn’t think it would get there, but now looks as if it will

  3. kvilia says:

    Tony – excellent call the other day on techs – NASDAQ confirmed daily shorts today.

  4. scottycj1 says:

    Well look at that golds going down……….imagine that

  5. kvilia says:

    Miners are selling off, stops being triggered. If 21.9 does not hold, potential for 16.5 will open up. Tomorrow SPX will take a dive – holding UVXY.

  6. captbara says:

    USD with the stick save. Another false breakout for gold? Still no clear direction yet.

  7. fotis2 says:

    ” I don’t think the credibility of Central Banks has been impaired” Janet Yellen certainly has a way with words..

  8. The only thing that’s green on my screen is ViX and TLT.

  9. Dex T says:

    More interesting news-

    The Fed indicated that it would decrease the bond holdings by $50 billion per month, or $600 billion per year.

    From asset holdings of $900 billion before the recession, the Fed ended up expanding its balance sheet to $4.5 trillion.

  10. mjtplayer says:

    If you’re bullish gold, this is what you want to see. A drop of $40 or so over the next few days in washout into next week’s turn. You don’t want gold to rally back towards $1,300 right now, not yet…

  11. As long as PPT buys stox,they can do what they want.Nothing can stop them from their quest of controlling the financial markets tick by tick.

  12. Dex T says:

    Well there you go 1% finally. And looks like more down the road

    hard to imagine it was 5% in 2007…

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