Monday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then choppy day, DOW -36

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.7%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.7% as well. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened 6-points below Friday’s SPX 2432 close. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 2430, then dropped to 2420 by 10am. Then after a rally to SPX 2428 by 11:30, the market hit 2420 again at 1pm. At 2pm the budget deficit was reported larger: -$88b v -$53b. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2429 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.55%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude rose 25 cents, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Tomorrow: the PPI at 8:30.

The market opened lower today, bounced, hit SPX 2420, bounced, hit 2420, and bounced again. With the market opening lower, and the NDX/NAZ making lower lows today, the SPX/DOW remained lower all day and within the first hour’s trading range. If the NDX/NAZ can get some sort of rebound off today’s low, then the SPX/DOW should start to make some upside progress. Getting above SPX 2432 might also help. Short term count remains unchanged with Minute iv underway, or bottoming at SPX 2416. Short term support is at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Short term momentum rose above neutral at the close. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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98 Responses to Monday update

  1. I had been expecting 2479 this week. Just coverd my long and im no 100 short. Good luck

  2. vivelaamo says:

    Buying before FOMC at a top? They know something and the rally will continue.

  3. Today,ahead of FOMC,they’re buying everything.Question:AFTER the Fed,what do they keep and what do they sell?I guess we’ll all know what the preferred trades are in 24 hrs.

    • fotis2 says:

      So if they raise does that mean SPX goes down?Buy the rumor sell the fact?

      • captbara says:

        Raise is already known. We only care about the surprises, as in QT, bigger hike, or no hike at all.

        The fact that they walked the dollar and gold right to break out/down levels, and stalled it, tells you it’s going to be a fun one.

  4. tommyboys says:

    Record number of investors say stocks are overvalued. Will they all be right?

  5. phil1247 says:


    2447 next target…………..

    remember………… steve miller bands says………………………………

  6. Mr C,do you see the TNX moving up to 2.27 and rolling over again or how do you see interest rates at this point.Thanks.

  7. gary61b says: Just a projection of ES on longer term chart.

  8. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Testing Failed Breakout Level ~ WR @ 244.63+
    FOMC Pivot in Play ~ WPP @ 243..46
    GL All

  9. tommyboys says:

    A/D strong today making new highs now…

  10. torehund says:

    Snooker fest in the chop, another Yellen day aarrrghh🆘

  11. stockop says:

    ending contracting diagonal in the NYSE? could go as high as 11809 but it meets the criteria, something to watch for. wonder just what this fed meeting has in store for us tomorrow…everyone has said that they react based on the markets, maybe near ATH they surprise and are a little more hawkish than expected about unwinding the balance sheet.

  12. vivelaamo says:

    Nothing to see today. See you tomorrow for FOMC.

  13. phil1247 says:

    straight down
    next target 44.73
    yes….loaded with SCO

  14. fotis2 says:

    Great place to go short belly up time Bull on its last gasp.

  15. phil1247 says:


    straight down in ext shorts
    1257 next target

  16. NEWBIE says:

    We hit 2435 and drop like a rock

  17. pooch77 says:

    Looks like the tech wreck is done,start rallying to new highs, 2 day pullback enough

  18. vivelaamo says:

    Today is going to be a snooze fest zzzzz

  19. Last music suggestion for the group “Love”.Look on YouTube for 2003 Glastonbury/Arthur Lee/Love concert.One of the outstanding outdoor concerts,great photography,band and orchestra–and huge performances..3 songs stand out:”You Set the Scene”,”Red Telephone” and “”The Good Humor Man He Sees Everything”.I only point this group out,because of the low recognition factor.The last hurrah for Lee–35 years after his creative peak.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Learned, I did listen to Love’s Forever Changes, and it was everything you and 123 described. I am going to post it soon, but wanted to read up on them first.
      It had a good smattering of Vietnam within it to me, and was quite different, so I did’t want it to go unnoticed. Maybe I will double bill it with the concert.
      The remarks from fans on YouTube were priceless…one saying he had had kids so they could listen to their album…you don’t get hardcore fans like that, unless you have something different.
      I am looking forward to really listening to them again when I post…I’ll try tomorrow, and let’s hope the market, and life don’t get in the way….x

      • Good to hear you liked it.For me,that album took a few listenings–in small doses–to have it become enjoyable.This concert on YouTube gives even more greatness to the music.
        Think I’ll put YouTube on for some of that concert right now.Good night.

  20. jjjzzzwww says:


  21. pooch77 says:

    Got your rally caps

  22. Ira summary:
    DOW is the only equity index still bullishly embedded.A break below 21128 is a bull trap and means more selling.
    Gold is bullish,in Ira’s opinion.”This is an area where it could rally.”
    OIL:Bearishly embedded.Rallies will be sold.
    That’s all folks,

    • kvilia says:

      Young generation, Fiona, missing the essence – try this instead:

      • fionamargaret says:

        Good taste Kvilia…a brilliant interpretation.

        • fionamargaret says:

          I was sent Francesca Dego’s interpretation yesterday, and had not really run through it.
          I am sure you know I am really fussy about tone, delivery and the language communicated between soloist and orchestra. Seeing you and I have not talked music before, it is a delight for you to have chosen such a great alternative,
          When I was going through music last week, I had a well-known pianist selected, but I didn’t post, as I was quite certain the piano was very very slightly out of tune…crazy.

          Scott LaFaro was the bassist for Bill Evans, who died in his early twenties. He set a standard for other bassists to follow, but some still think he was the best….x

  23. stormchaser80llc says:

    While SPX has traded sideways/lower during the last 6 trading days, SPX’s Advance-Decline line made a new All Time High today. Most Breadth indicators, though off their highs, are still positive. VIX put in negative divergences at today’s highs, so it may turn lower soon.

    My proprietary Technicals Model, while still positive, has flashed 4 negative divergences since mid April, a sign that a major top is coming soon. My trading indicator based on this model went from BULLISH to NEUTRAL today, although my favorite unrelated signal remains BULLISH. Oil still has that feeling that a lower low needs to be put in before a turn higher.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site ( However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

  24. stockop says:

    seeing tony label the naz as finishing intermediate 3 really makes me wonder. with every momentum tech stock sporting the same chart pattern will they all break lower or did int 4 really finish up today…

    • stcoleridge says:

      Seriously? A two day int iv?

      • stockop says:

        i don’t believe it did. more trying to convince myself that theres some more downside in the near future cause, yes, i agree that doesnt sound realistic…but than u look at 2014 and is this indeed int 4??

  25. fionamargaret says:

    I had this story…and now CNN is reporting that Mueller is probably going to be let go…..

  26. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $EURUSD at

  27. Thanks Tony. All things considered, not a bad day; we’re back in the chop zone after a 30 point pullback, double the usual dip of 15 points. And in the futures corner, today’s high was exactly 15 points above Fridays low. This market likes 15 point moves. With the Fed meeting this week and OPEX next week, its really difficult to form expectations with any degree of confidence. I am convinced, though, the Fed will scale back the number of projected rate increases and am inclined to think the market will like it providing the Fed does nothing to undermine confidence in the economy. As I have said before, economic growth in the 2.0% to 2.5% range with fewer rate increases may not be a bad deal for equities. Lastly, do you attach any importance to area of 2434.5, the 61.8% retracement level of Friday’s drop???

  28. kvilia says:

    Tony – thanks for holding the fort. If someone wonders – chop,chop till FOMC. CL may do its thing and drop to the next support level while indices making sandwiches, gold will stop selling off tomorrow and starts its next run after FOMC as it did last several meetings. Miners are on the verge of breakout, hopefully. If they do, expect lavish vacations and expensive gifts. That, of course, does not apply to scotty and other gold haters 😉

    • aahmichael says:

      I’m well aware of what gold has done after the 3 previous rate hikes, but can you find even single example in the last 10 years where gold put in a weekly candle like it did last week, and then went to new highs without first declining further for several weeks?

      • kvilia says:

        Not many. The selling volume has declined over the week, though. It can still decline another 3% to the lower support trendline, no doubt. Should this be broken, it is in trouble. How about we wait a couple of days?

    • phil1247 says:

      /GC is going straight down in extension shorts
      no hope of any rally till that stops……
      ……u know this because of eminiaddict…..yes?
      plus closed below 18d sma today …
      i am bullish gold
      but we may need to test 1211 to scare the children

  29. vivelaamo says:

    BTFD! Goodnight all x

  30. captbara says:

    Looks like there was actually a small +ve div on NYMO from Fri’s close and last Mon.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      Another reminder of this bull market…wave C in corrections rarely even meet the same length of A. If this is still minute iv, then it will likely happen again or run the risk of taking out the top of i.

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