Friday update

SHORT TERM: all-time new highs then tech decline, DOW +89

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight. The market opened 5-points above yesterday’s SPX 2334 close and continued to rally. At 10:30 the SPX hit an all-time high of 2446, and then started to pullback with profit taking in the Tech sector. Just before 3pm the SPX hit 2416. Then it rallied to SPX 2432 to end the day with a small loss.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed and the NDX/NAZ lost 2.1%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude added 25 cents, Gold dropped $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2479 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower, and the Q2 GDP estimate was lowered to 3.0%.

Interesting day. The market opened higher, took out the SPX 2440 high, then continued to 2446. The new high confirmed the ending of the 4th wave, on our very short-term count, at SPX 2425 yesterday. And the new high was the fifth wave up from the last month’s SPX 2353 Minute ii low. This suggests Minute iii, of this Minor 5 uptrend, may have completed today at SPX 2446. Will cover this in detail in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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19 Responses to Friday update

  1. COT chart for gold appears even a little worse than last weeks slightly bearish chart.Looks like no rally for gold until the commercials work off some bullishness.Open interest up slightly.As it turned out,my opinion of last weeks COT pretty much panned out.Nothing to get bullish about imho.

    • fionamargaret says:

      I noticed Kimble is talking gold today…I will post tomorrow night…
      Meanwhile I received a note suggesting selling gold…and last time Dent wrote me he is selling too…
      It is not going to 3500 tomorrow, but there is the suggestion of that under the alternate scenario. I did laugh when you mentioned CB’s selling tons of gold…onwards and upwards.
      Ever since you mentioned music I had never listened too, I am searching the archives, and finding all sorts, but I think I have gone back too far….60’s 70’s, but interesting.
      Keep up with the funny tales…x

      • For you and your love of classical music,but combining with late 1960s rock,I recommend doing a search on YouTube for Love’s “Forever Changes” album.Lots of strings and interesting lyrics.One of the great albums of all time,but fairly obscure to the masses.Try it,you might like it.

        • 123 abc says:

          “Forever Changes” is a great psychedelic rock album —the 60s to 70s was the apex, it went downhill from there…

    • fionamargaret says:

      Ariez, I have found a combination ..Barenboim / Ceibidache…that I would like you to play against Gould / Bernstein. Celibidache conducts in a slower, thoughtful way. He is quite unique, and I think you might really like their interpretation of Brahms.
      I posted him conducting a piece composed by Rimsky-Korsakov, but be careful, parts of the composition is so beautiful, your soul will bleed….x

      BFQ, I would really like to know what you are listening to now…seeing you led me to music I had not listened to in a long while the first time, and thinking your second idea is just as unique….I am poised ecstatically on the sharp edge of anticipation….x

  2. mjtplayer says:

    Some very interesting daily reversal candles today, especially in SPY, QQQ & VIX

    Ugly weekly candles in GLD, GDX, GBP

  3. captbara says:

    Dancing bear MIA means this correction is real. Celebrating bear sighting means it might not last very long.

  4. mailming says:

    Anyone can comments why NASDAQ is burnt?

    • fionamargaret says:

      ..rotation into financials, health care and energy is the official answer…also FANG were downgraded this morning…lots of people on sidelines to buy.. supposedly…x

    • Having been the biggest winners for so long, it’s logical that NASDAQ & NDX are the biggest losers when consolidation time is around. – I’ve been saying for weeks that middle to end of June a major cyclical bottom was due. It’s here already, should last only a few days and we should be grateful for the buying opportunity! The market has been running on fumes so long, it didn’t take much to bring it back down to earth (for a while)!

  5. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al for a week of great OEW daily updates; a good weekend to all.

    • phil1247 says:

      someone posted that they didnt like your tiny 3….
      i was going to post that as long as the next wave is ” more tiny ”
      there was nothing wrong with it….
      well ……… looks like thats what happened

      • 123 abc says:

        For such an eventful week including a full moon, I’m surprised the count remained intact !

  6. phil1247 says:


    2442 target hit …………..
    take the money and run

  7. Lee X says:

    Gracious Antonio

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