Thursday update

SHORT TERM: another choppy day, DOW +9

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher but finished mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower. The market opened 2-points above yesterday’s SPX 2433 close, ticked up to 2436, then started to pullback. At 10:30 the SPX hit the 2428 pivot, then rallied to 2439 by 12:30. The market then pulled back to SPX 2428 again by 3pm, then the market bounced to 2434 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.25%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude lost 15 cents, Gold lost $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2479 pivots. Tomorrow: wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market opened higher today, hit SPX 2436, then pulled back ahead of ex-FBI head Comey’s testimony. During and just after the testimony the SPX rallied to within 1-point of its all-time. Then in the afternoon it pulled back to the low of the day at the 2428 pivot again. The choppy activity since last Friday’s SPX 2440 high has still not been resolved. Maybe UK elections results, or maybe not, will be the catalyst. Short term support is at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2479 pivots. Short term momentum hit overbought during today’s rally then dropped below neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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180 Responses to Thursday update

  1. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Just watched this all day with amusement.Nasdaq looks like it’s busting its embedded on the daily.One day (Monday)to get it back.If not,more downside and MAYBE the weekly -divs kick in.IWM tried to hold everything together but…couldn’t.GDX and gold unexciting.Later all.

  2. tommyboys says:

    Man NAZ off 136 and NAZ AD EVEN!,, NYAD positive 18/14ish

  3. phil1247 says:

    BIG bounce out of nowhere at 2416

    oh…. i forgot… thats the daily extension long support

    i should water the flowers after 4pm i guess

    • phil1247 says:

      and where did we run up to …?
      2429……….the aggressive extension support that failed……….

  4. stockop says:

    tony, what does this do to your count? it broke below 2419

    • I’d say it means 5 waves up to complete minute iii were done at 2,446, and now we’re already starting minute iv down. Minute ii was 53 points (2,406 to 2,353), and since today’s top we’ve already traveled 30 points down to 2,416. So I’d say we’re already 30 points into a iv wave.

  5. kvilia says:

    So, perma bulls – who would like to thank me?
    CL – looks like it will break down further, revising my stance. However, booked a 10% profit on GUSH. Break below 45.57 will make your DRIP position happy.
    ES – extensions on 15m broken aggressively – on Friday it’s not a good sign for bulls. Daily support seats at 2380. Tony will revise the count today.
    Cheers and have a good weekend – it was a great week!
    Oh, yeah – Newbie – the celebration maybe short (still thinking at least 2320 aligned with BJs view) but heck – open that cold bottle of Veuve 🙂

  6. vivelaamo says:

    Catalonian referedum confirmed. Haha it needed something! Gotta love the timing.

  7. vivelaamo says:

    What just happened?

  8. stockop says:

    /vx looking like a micro 5 up…

    • stockop says:

      pretty sure this is the c wave. my brother texted me that he bought AMD on the dip at $12, hes a software engineer…

  9. fotis2 says:

    Newbie is one of the few that make money here the dancing bears is a smokescreen….

  10. vivelaamo says:

    No posters calling tops. No dancing bears. No conspiracy theories. No state of economy posts. Could this really be a top?

    • fionamargaret says:

      Scotty, I love your charts when you post them, but don’t understand the abbreviations.
      cit means….??
      Ditto for GTO ….love his charts also, but have no idea what WR, BO, WPP mean.
      If you tell me it would be very helpful….

  11. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Failed at WR ~ Testing BO ~ WPP Test Possible
    Expanding Diagonal 5 completed!
    GL & Good Weekend All

  12. fotis2 says:

    Ok there you have it you guys must go all out long now….BTD 🙂 🙂

    • phil1247 says:

      no fotis
      esu7 2429 is the long entry

      • phil1247 says:

        now that we are there..
        .. the question is … anybody going to buy ?

        certainly not me….. late on friday afternoon .
        …. go for it fotis!

        gotta go miracle grow the flowers now
        … see ya buddy!

  13. stockop says:

    we get a five up after this local low in the S&P and im letting the market have some. little over 38.2% retrace from yesterday futures low.

  14. blackjak100 says:

    NAZ relatively weak today…

  15. tommyboys says:

    RUT moving up as small financials rallying in front of Dodd Frank rollback!!

  16. H D says:

    Range 2,436.39 – 2,446.20

  17. Hugh Jazole says:

    It’s looking like a 3000 target for SPX might be conservative.

  18. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Nas looks like it wants to reverse and drop 40.

  19. torehund says:

    Btk attempting to squeeze🐇

  20. vivelaamo says:

    Transports flat?

    • stockop says:

      utilities down… really tempted to give the market some on this next rally. only thing stopping me is the time of day

      • vivelaamo says:

        It’s way too bullish. Doesn’t look like a top to me. It’s difficult to even buy the dips they are so shallow.

        • stockop says:

          for now, i agree. got a harmonic crab completing at spx 2450, nice round number. and in the futures i’m seeing a potential impulsive structure, with the next rally completing 5 of 3. if it consolidates and then rallys into the close who knows what i may do

  21. Seems like we’re hitting that 2444 resistance you posted. This guy Woodey Dorsey I follow has been calling for a drop around this time for awhile now. Even though it’s still in an uptrend at this time we could get a drop coming. And his timing for drops in the market is very good. If you want to hear in more detail what he’s saying you should check it out

  22. EL MATADOR says:

    i’ll get the conversation started out of boredom….
    VIX ATH low 9.37 today…..what does it mean?

    • learnedmylesson25 says:

      Ira says,possibly down to 7.5.Lower bb

      • learnedmylesson25 says:

        Anyways,I was woken out of a sound sleep this morning and found out it was caused by a HUGE -div on the daily SPX.Which brings me to a saying by the famous Chinese stock market philosopher,Confuse-us,who said:”It’s better to have a negative divergence in a bull market,than a positive divergence in a bear market.”
        And Yellen grinned as she was told by Jamie Dimon about this new divergence.
        “The usual response?”said Dimon.
        “Let me flip my coinl”,she replied.
        “The one with the bull head on both sides?Lol”
        “That’s the one.Okay,buy ’em.”

    • stockop says:

      irrational complacency. and thats with a higher p/c based on intraday cboe data in a few days

    • stcoleridge says:

      The Fed’s got your back?

    • blackjak100 says:

      8.89 all time low.

    • Page says:

      it means SPX drop is imminent, the selling may start this afternoon.

    • EL MATADOR says:

      Well I’ll be damn if that VIX wasn’t a timely warning 😉

  23. Lee X says:

    “Why do you look at the speck of sawdust in your brother’s eye and pay no attention to the plank in your own eye?

    Mark 7.3

    “Who ya crappin ?

    Mike Ditka

  24. stockop says:

    S&P cash hits new ATH by 2 points while futures still have yet to cross its mark. the discount between cash and futures is growing…

  25. phil1247 says:


    you can go back to sleep…..
    my dancing bear did the trick
    target s hoooooooooooooo !

  26. phil1247 says:


    1267.60 target about to go ding

  27. Richard Glackin says:

    Need a deeper retrace of that last 5 wave move up before we head higher.

  28. learnedmylesson25 says:

    From what I’m reading about the UK election,a lot of anger from conservatives,thinking May unnecessarily called for an election,and in fact was complicit in trying to overthrow the Brexit vote,by doing so.If the liberal takes over,most think Brexit will never happen.The elitists win again.

  29. fbender7 says:

    If I’m reading the very short term count correctly, we have most likely completed 4 micro waves. Since micro wave 3 is much shorter than micro wave 1 (and third waves cannot be the shortest), that means micro wave 5 will have to be really short, terminating somewhere below ~2460, to close out minute wave iii.

  30. pooch77 says:

    The big 5 hour plunge is over and we can all relax as futes turned green

  31. stockop says:

    US markets truly not budging regardless of the situation in the UK. /es hitting a new local low throws off any type of viable wave count for it. anyone got a cure for this? can futures be wrong and the cash market is king here? /vx saying we might get highs across the board by morning, absolutely no hedging going on.

    • scottycj1 says:

      Was the futures market wrong at the US Presidential Election Nov 8 & 9 ?
      The cash market is always king

      • stockop says:

        didn’t even think about that, duh. that drop was just as inexplicable as this and whats weird is the AH cash didnt take out its low today. appreciate it

        • tommyboys says:

          Lots of sectors breaking out. Bullish rotation continues. A/D made another turn up today after a couple day pause. If small caps can take the reigns for a turn here this bull will accelerate again.

          • stockop says:

            last comment, i’m spamming the board too much tonight. both yes and no. Utilities got crapped on today (alternative dow theory), transports are still not hitting new highs (regular dow theory divergence), NYSE closed the day below its march 1 high, and put/call ratios are stupid low right now. i don’t know if you can really say financials are “breaking out” at this point, but the move today is definitely a wrench in my analysis as financials being where they are has been a major cause of concern on top of the transports and dow industrials diverging bigly from the S&P and NAZ at this point. imo the russell 2000 futures are saying this is either a 3rd of a 3rd of 5 right now (with a running flat minor 4) and tomorrow will show that, or its the ultimate headfake. experience has shown that markets look their absolute worst at market bottoms and best at tops, like its never gonna come down again. (4/13 if you want to see an example of the most recent bottom occurrence, have to look at it in conjunction with some sector etfs to get the full picture, and 3/1 is an example for a top.) I am wary of the rotation and that will put me in the wave 5 camp, but im not sold yet. Nasdaq is in need of a pullback, the composite has exceeded the target for the age old TA consolidation box breakout, and the Naz 100 is at big harmonic resistance. Anything is possible and it could continue up, but i do think that $1000 for a stock is a huge psychological level for both holders and buyers and a tech pullback is needed with that money flowing into small caps, financials, and potentially energy. my 2 cents, i am a contrarian through and through

    • fbender7 says:

      Didn’t futures freak out bigly the night Trump was elected? Yet by the time the cash market opened, all was well again and the Trump rally was off to the races. I think futures just gave us the obligatory fake dip based on nothing of substance.

      • stockop says:

        yeah i think i’m gonna ignore futures and stick to the cash count at this point. if ur question above about the short term count is right seems both team b wave and team wave 5 are looking for the same thing. interesting

  32. mjtplayer says:

    Cable getting smoked after the election, a close below 1.2768 tomorrow (weekly candle) would be very bearish…

    It’s time for the Dollar to rally. Draghi did nothing to help the Euro today, now Cable rolling over.

  33. alexh110 says:

    With more results declared it looks like the exit poll was broadly correct, in that the Conservatives are going to lose seats, and quite possibly lose their majority.

  34. stormchaser80llc says:

    Don’t fall asleep, whether this is a top or consolidation (and I support the latter), significant moves are occurring in other markets, notably small/mid caps and the DOW hit a record high today. SPX will likely trade upward out of this range in time. Market participation is gaining in health. However, during this sideways move during the past week, it is notable that my proprietary Technicals Model is much lower than SPX is from the top. This is a warning sign that a trend reversal will come, but I am saying we need a new SPX high first.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site ( However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

  35. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Good news/bad news:GDX held 23.03/DXY moving up.
    Good news/bad news:Dollar still embedded today/probably not after tomorrow.
    Good news/bad news:Gold is still embedded/Probably not after tomorrow.
    Bad news/Good news:My 100% stock fund buy is down since I bought/It’s not down more.
    Good news/bad news:I’m done for the night/Back again

  36. gary61b says:

    gary61b says:
    June 8, 2017 at 10:19 am
    ESU7 if a drop from 2433 down to 2423 could finish this, with what would be close to a double bottom and at support before 2415 as the next heavy.
    Reply, will see if it holds overnight.

  37. 123 abc says:

    FTSE100 count is uninterrupted thus far into the UK election evening…

    • torehund says:

      From 2008 the Tukish lira lost 2/3 of its buying power vs Usd, Gbp less than 1/3, think we will see a catch up in the European currencies towards the valluation of the lira. And when that happens a similar powerstructure emerging. It is what it is.

      • I don’t understand ANYTHING in your statement. Could you please be a little more explicit? Telegram style is ok, but only if the main ideas are clear. You can’t presuppose that everyone is “into it” on this topic!

        • torehund says:

          When a country or civilization is going downhill, the currency follows. The west have too many superfluous eaters vs producers of real goods to sustain the value of the currency. The imbalance is now catching on to Europe, in which case there are none but two options, keep the drag on economy intact (with a swelling inefficient state) and accept a Fiatized currency, or do mass lay-offs Erdogan style and keep the currency from entering free-fall. Venezuela did the former, and it only resulted in chaos and overt hyperinflation.

          • stockop says:

            added to my list of useful knowledge that one doesnt often come across twice. great explanation. someone knows their economics

    • 123 abc says:

      FTSE100 futures snapshot…

  38. vivelaamo says:

    Check out the weekly doji on the Dow. Could
    be a sharp welcomed pb next week.

  39. jobjas says:

    SPX ? ending diagonal

    • kvilia says:

      Where have you been? And who let you post these unspeakable charts? We only believe in up, up and away 😉
      Thanks for posting. Everyone and their mother-in-law believe this has been a consolidation. Good to see alternative counts like BJs and yours.

  40. pooch77 says:

    Dow futes opened down 69 and have rebounded to only -32 .Should see new highs tomorrow as cb’s like to goose market up on any questionable/bad news

  41. vivelaamo says:

    Any chance of Labour and Corbyn gaining power is very bad for the UK. Markets won’t like it although I doubt it will affect US so much.

    • alexh110 says:

      FTSE futures are down 50 points; SPX futures only off 6.

    • mcgcapital says:

      Something going on with the exit polls to me.. BBC are analysing the first few results vs what was projected and tories have been doing better than the exit polls. Could be something like them asking more people during the day with Tory voters more likely to vote at night after work. Happened in 2015… wouldn’t be surprised to see them sneak a majority still but had to exit longs already just in case. 40 point loss not too bad though I guess, could be worse!

    • pooch77 says:

      Probably no effects on US free markets!!! futes be green tomorrow cb’s goose the market on to new highs

  42. phil1247 says:

    all right…………

    if newbie is not going to do his job and get this market moving up to target
    i guess i have to do his job for him

    • Richard Glackin says:

      Just not buying the very large wave ‘i’ and tiny wave ‘iii’. I think ‘i’ should be ‘iii’ and ‘iii’ should be ‘v’ (of 3). Just my two cents.

  43. alexh110 says:

    Cable is being hammered by UK exit poll:
    Con 314 Lab 266 SNP 34 LD 14
    Con forecast to be 12 short of majority with a loss of 17 seats.

    • alexh110 says:

      We could get exact parity between parties of the right and left, i.e. stalemate!

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