Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then choppy, DOW -48

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.6%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down at the opening to SPX 2429. In the opening minutes the SPX hit the 2428 pivot and then started to rebound. At 10am the SPX reached 2435, and went sideways for a few hours. Around 2:30 the SPX closed the gap at 2436 then started to pullback again. Then heading into the close the market was back near the lows, closing at SPX 2429.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.35%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude rose 85 cents, Gold rallied $13, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2479 pivots. Tomorrow: consumer credit at 3pm.

The market gapped down at the open today for the first time in three weeks. However, just after the open the market bottomed and started to rebound. The last gap down opening, you may recall, was the Comey memo news on May 17th. At today’s low the market had pulled back 12-points from the 2440 all-time high. The pullback was sufficient to trigger a quantified short term reversal on the smallest timeframe. Therefore, we now have 4 waves on the shortest timeframe, and just one wave on the larger. Expecting higher highs after this pullback concludes. Short term support remains at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2479 pivots. Short term momentum hit quite oversold this morning, rebounded to neutral, then ended the day oversold. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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87 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. torehund says:

    A pipe dream, at inflection.

  2. kvilia says:

    CL – some news: Libya’s biggest oil field shut down, halting 270K bbl/day output
    I am anticipating at least hwb short pullback but it may grow into long counter trend. Unless the bottom falls off.

  3. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Testing WPP ~ Nice Zone to go long!
    Otherwise WS below. GL All


  4. mjtplayer says:

    Phil – symmetries:

    Gold via GLD, I’m looking for one last poke higher towards GLD $124 (roughly $1,307 in spot)


    GDX, one last poke higher to $24+/- to complete the wave B bear flag. I’ve been waiting for this pattern to complete for weeks.


    Bonds via TLT, perhaps another week and a half before topping, still marching towards $128


    • phil1247 says:


      re tlt…. what do you see as the larger weekly / monthly pattern?

      • mjtplayer says:

        Bear market rally off the March low. Projection is $128, but could certainly rally to $130: 50% retrace and close the huge open gap from the election.

        Timing is more difficult, Treasuries are a heavily manipulated market (central banks), but still looking like late June.

    • phil1247 says:

      also … mjt
      interesting you have GDX in wave e of triangle

      wave e is emotional… so a spike up…. even above the downtrend line
      that holds below wave c would be the perfect setup for GDX
      collapse i am looking for into sept 1..
      its too perfect….. isnt it ?

    • scottycj1 says:

      MJT, Phil….Think Gold saw its top yesterday, per the CIT posted last week…..think we ajust finished a B wave of a final ABCDE.

      • kvilia says:

        Sc, Just curious at what price you are going to give up.

        • scottycj1 says:

          I never give up……..But I will get stopped out above yesterdays high. I posted this on the weekend update…
          scottycj1 says:
          June 5, 2017 at 11:34 am

          GC looks to test near 1287 today –tomorrow
          Tues is CIT UUP has Pos D on Daily
          Knowing which pivot will turn the market is tough to know….I’m more of a time trader. 1287 was resistance and so was 1296-7…..Dollar looks ready to rally in some degree

  5. stockop says:

    /YM with a perfect flag…. will this madness ever end??

  6. H D says:

    The news matters in CL. Proof positive. No squeeze, just sellers. I don’t know how you guys can type when your in CL. Doozie!

  7. H D says:

    Range 2,424.75 – 2,434.95

  8. kvilia says:

    Crude is coiling for lift off – will be fun. Let’s see extensions short broken first, still room to fall, not much IMO.
    ES – extensions long broken – target 2398 if not mistaken. I think this time it may go all the way to 2320 or so. Let’s see if the short trade is defended.

  9. I’m going to go on the theory,that after an uptrend is established (on GDX for this example),a slight 2-3 day pullback ensues,followed by higher highs–see early 2017.I’ll probably add to GDX after tomorrow.Will hold until then(10 and 20d avgs must not get taken out).

  10. blackjak100 says:

    B not 3

  11. Lee X says:

    Northside of Chicago unleaded gas trading at a $2 premium to spot futures.

    You guys are impressive 😉

    • tommyboys says:

      Must be that “summer brew” nonsense – errrrr… justified hike Lee!

      • Lee X says:

        I paid $2.19 in Van Buren Co MI a couple of days ago.

        The word is the State / County / City taxes in Illinois are set up to encourage folks to walk and ride bikes as an healthy alternative to driving.

        • phil1247 says:

          yes but Lee….

          when crude falls to 14 dollars….
          they will want to drive like crazy…
          unless they tax it at 3.00 per gallon

          • tommyboys says:

            Which would then push it down to $5/bbl…

          • Lee X says:

            If that’s the case then expect long refinery shutdowns for maintenance and a new Federal State County City tax on gasoline for infrastructure projects

            a couple bucks seems reasonable

  12. vivelaamo says:

    Snooze fest. Waiting for RUT to drop again to to go long. Wake me up when we see some movement. General Election maybe?

    FBI thing will be a non event in my opinion.

    • stockop says:

      maybe the ECB says the word “tighten”. agree on rut. you still short IWM?

      • vivelaamo says:

        Small position still open as took profits. Didn’t you short SPX near the top?

        • stockop says:

          and then jumped ship cause it consolidated too long lol. trendlines in futures across the board are broken, i think we see double tops atleast before they take it down tomorrow and ill get a good reentry. not so sure about iwm (ur call was literally at the top), but the momentum seemed too good to be true to the downside a few mins ago…seen what theyve been doing on those moves the past few months

          • vivelaamo says:

            Yes but the thing with the the Rut is once it’s back in the range which its been in since Jan it tends to drop hard. That’s what I’m looking out for. Needs to close back in that range.

            • stockop says:

              just checked that out. gaps and massive red bars, wow. this last move headfaked and reversed. i am absolutely salivating about the russell. absolutely beautiful chart, and hedge fund largest net short position in 6 years… i’ll take some of that

  13. gary61b says:

    ES, I do like for major support 2411.5 if we get there today before close. https://gyazo.com/cf74f03d879d0f0e40aba0b625519d71

  14. Looks like a 6 million barrel miss on WTIC.Build of 3 mill instead of drawdown of 3 million.Equities react accordingly.

  15. phil1247 says:


    perfect bounce off extension long .618 level at 2426

    target 2445

  16. fotis2 says:

    Interesting take from Sunshine Profits

  17. cj32 says:

    cr. CBZ

    • tommyboys says:

      There won’t be any “obstruction”. FBI has already stated whatever investigations are ongoing do not end with the termination of ANY of their staff. Further had there been an incling of this Trump admin would have excercised their right to preclude Comey from testifying period. This whole “the Russians” thing is such a misdirection colossal waste of resources its pathetic it can occur. I’m more interested what comes out in the Clinton server/email/Russian relationship/Clinton Foundation/Obama payola arena.

  18. Thank you very much Tony.

  19. UPDATE: Dow (and Spx) trying to break above 34 sma:
    Dow hourly futures –

  20. Ira summary:Everything’s embedded.Bonds,S&P,gold–all to the upside.Dollar to the downside.
    LML25:How is this happening?Any theories?So much money sloshing around that they have to pour it in EVERYTHING ( BitCon as well)?
    Yields falling–why?Recession?If THAT’S true,why are stocks going up?Because of technical breakouts?
    Anyways,gold hitting upper BB,could pull back,but he’s extremely bullish on PMs,saying,”The 18 d has crossed the 200d.The 100d should cross the 200d shortly.This is now a long term bullish market.”
    Otherwise,should be no pullbacks of any importance (riiight,famous last words).Until the dollar unembeds,no sign of a rally there–and should drop to 96,the lower BB.Later.

    • India GST News Powers Gold Higher
      …is an interesting article on Gold,miners and bitCon.Henry Blodgett is calling for BitCon price of,get this $1 million.Stewart Thompson wrote the article.Why would holding a meaningless computer generated thingy increase to that value?We’re going to have that many millionaires?Really?I spell it P O N Z I.
      My two Bitcons(instead of 2 cents) on GDX is,we haven’t had a 5% up day in memory.So something happened today that was different.Coming up is Comey,Brit elections and ECB babble.Very possible gold sells the news.If not,and this is a real bullish breakout,missing a day of rally will be unimportant,so I’ll probably back off tomorrow on GDX.Good luck all.

  21. stormchaser80llc says:

    SPX continues its pullback, but may be gaining some short term strength with improving SPX Hourly technicals. This is after posting negative divergences since March 1st, 2017 on the Daily chart and last Friday on the Hourly chart, so have to continue to keep a close eye on things. Most breadth indicators are positive, but have been pulling back even stronger than the market this week. VIX remains on an hourly MACD BUY signal, though negative divergences put in at today’s high may signal lower price for VIX at least in the short term. Oil was slightly lower today, but its candle and technical indicators suggest a turn is possible soon. However the bond market, HYG:IEF continues to gradually come off the recent highs on 3/2/2017, negatively diverging with the stock market. My proprietary Technicals Model lost more steam today. Despite being well in positive territory, it foretells a major turn lower for the market with 4 negative divergences vs. SPX since mid April.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com) However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

    • torehund says:

      Gold looks to be in a downturns vs Usd, except for a marginal breach of a down Channel.

      • fionamargaret says:

        Quite a few hedge funds have greatly increased their positions in gold and bitcoin for diversification. Gold is much easier for the ordinary investor, so gold is going higher.
        (Now the banks need to think forward and offer gold coins which are easily redeemable).

        I have TMF going to 26, so long bonds are still going higher (yields lower). Now that would suggest deflation, but let’s wait and see….maybe just diversification again.

        Do write me if there is music you would like…..x

        • fionamargaret says:

        • torehund says:

          In my thinking Gold is a good option ex-US, but so is whatever “stuff” that will keep its value if the ex-US currencies plummet like my chart counts may indicate. Thus holding gold outside the US may be a good choice to uphold purchasing power, as well as an ETF on major indices. In dollar terms I think any commodity including Gold will do poorly as Europe (in my eyes) is nearing a financial crisis.

  22. UPDATE: Rut leading the market higher (all day and now in futures).
    Rut hourly futures –

  23. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #FTSE at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  24. pooch77 says:

    That was your turn around Tuesday

  25. stockop says:

    finally seeing some weakness in the leaders. lot of upthrusts and bearish engulfings today. havent meant anything in the past few months, but eventually it will. looks like some big players could be hedging with some vix futures and we have an absolutely glorious potential sell the news Thursday. going to wait to see price action tomorrow, but a potential setup is appearing

  26. 123 abc says:

    Tony, in regards to the pullback from 2440 to today’s low thus far; do you think this is either…
    a. Micro-4 of Minute-iii wave, or
    b. Nano-ii of Micro-3 wave ?

  27. pooch77 says:

    Bounce failure , more down to come

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