Monday update

SHORT TERM: lower open consolidation day, DOW -22

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened lower and lost 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened 3-points below Friday’s SPX 2439 close. In the opening minutes the market dipped down to SPX 2434, then hit the high at 2440 by 10am. At 10am ISM services were reported lower, and factory orders were reported lower. Then the market remained in that 6-point trading range for rest of the day, closing at 2436.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.10%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold rose $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2479 pivots.

The market opened slightly lower today, rallied back to the SPX 2440 all-time high, then went into a 6-point trading range for the rest of the day. No change on either short term count noted in the weekend update. While today’s market was relatively quiet, there is lots of potential market moving activity setting up for Thursday. First we have the ECB meeting, ex-FBI chief Comey’s testimony, then the UK election, all in one day. Could be a wild day. Short term support remains at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2479 pivots. Short term momentum backed off from quite overbought and ended the day at neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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65 Responses to Monday update

  1. Dex T says:

    Trump set to make first moves at completely revamping the Federal Reserve

    “President Donald Trump appears ready to remake the Federal Reserve in an image that will be considerably different than what investors have known for many years.

    The president is prepared to nominate Randal Quarles and Marvin Goodfriend to two of three vacancies at the central bank, according to multiple press accounts that have not been disputed by the administration. Quarles likely would assume the role vacated by Daniel Tarullo to oversee the nation’s banking system. White House officials did not respond to a CNBC request for comment.”

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/05/trump-set-to-make-first-moves-at-completely-remaking-the-fed.html

  2. Dex T says:

    Rates are set to rise again next week.

    the first time in over 10 years that rates have been 1%

  3. kvilia says:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-06/bofa-if-bonds-are-right-stocks-will-drop-20
    The bell is about to start ringing. Newbie – champagne on ice s’il vous plaît.

    • pooch77 says:

      Take Zerohedge with a grain of salt

      • fotis2 says:

        Bag of salt …

      • kvilia says:

        I was waiting for this. What does this have to do with zerohedge??? Mostly BofA report excerpts. However, look at bonds – what are they telling? The possibility of Trump trade being over is growing now at all times high and going into the summer. I say we are looking at at least 5% correction if market internals are fine, and perhaps 15-20% is not out of the question if traders decide that Trump is not able to deliver on his promises in the near future. With VIX being at historic lows and markets being at historic highs, it all starts making sense, so the question is not if but when.

  4. “With the market rallying through 2428SPX, it moved our support up to 2410-2420SPX quite immediately. So, anyone that added positions on the move through 2428SPX will have done so with relatively low risk. In fact, I am even able to move upper support up to the 2420SPX level at this time.

    So, as long as the market does not break back down below 2420SPX, then we have a very strong bullish pattern pointing us to the 2500-2565SPX region within the next two months or so. However, if we see a break down in the coming week below 2420SPX, it does not mean that the market is still not in a larger bullish posture, but it does open other potential patterns to play out, one of which is still the possibility to drop back down to the 2330SPX region.” 
    –Avi’s latest.
    He also thinks gold is breaking out to the upside,since GLD broke above April’s high.A confirmation of GDX over 24.65 would be icing on the gold cake.

    • Even a broken clock is right twice a day. For the last month he was on a B wave high that was wrong, why would you think he would be right this time? Love these guys, When right 1 out of 20 times they say, See we nailed it. He has been a big bull on gold as well, eventually he will be right.
      so he was a bear, market went higher. No he is a bull I will become a bear. Maybe not today, but before 2565 and sooner then 2 months.

      • I’ve pointed out his inaccuracies on gold,but stocks have been a better call for him ( based on levels being taken out).It’s always if or but with Avi,still his long term views HAD been 2500+…just like Mr C.I give no creedence to Avi,just posting levels of interest to watch.

  5. Having spiked to just shy of 2017 highs, gold has broken the major trend across the highs since Jul. ’16 at 1,281. It’s also through a longer-term trendline formed across the highs since Sep. ’11 (1,274). As a result, according to Goldman’s chief technician Sheba Jafari, the next big pivot area in focus is up at 1,304-1,315. Jafari adds that “this includes two separate ABC targets from March and May. Given the overlapping/corrective nature of the run up since December, there’s a good chance the market could hold below this area. Moreover oscillators are already at the range highs and looking stretched.”

    Bottom line, need to be careful of any/all signs of a top near 1,304; need a break higher than 1,315 to suggest potential for a more meaningful advance. Anything back underneath 1,281 signals some near-term weakness.
    –ZH

  6. phil1247 says:

    thats all folks………
    see ya at the swarm!

    • phil1247 says:

      one last one from yesterday……. still applies

      phil1247 says:
      June 5, 2017 at 11:26 am
      tore … looking to go long for short squeeze if next ext short above fails
      could be a face ripper
      Reply

  7. mjtplayer says:

    Phil – turn window for the Dollar is later this week, Thursday/Friday. Interesting considering the events on Thursday: ECB, Comey & UK elections.

    Also, TLT still on track to rally into $128 – $130. The 10yr could test 2.0%, which would be a 50% retrace from low to high. Still waiting to short bonds…

    • phil1247 says:

      yes … i am buying dips and selling rips in cash bonds
      they are hot potatos in a game of musical chairs
      dont want to get caught when the music stops
      tick…tock ….. clairisse……………

  8. fotis2 says:

    O k guys I know why Mr. Market does not go down remember the guy that used to ring the bell at the top?Well he passed away and they still looking for a replacement.Also Phil has a frankentarget of 2441

  9. Pleasantly surprised that the 3-5% move in GDX was UP.I watched the whipsaw for a over a week and had no clue(except the dollar was dropping)that GDX would break higher.As I posted recently by Viking Investors ,”Gold has been leading miners up since 2016,but GDX leads gold down.”So far so good on that theory working again…later.It’s a casino day today.I just hope I don’t come back and find the S&P has scheduled me for a quick colonoscopy–may happen until Comey is out of the way.

  10. mjtplayer says:

    Gold is now through resistance at $1,285 and rallied right to the next resistance at $1,297. Above here, the next stop would be $1,310.

    Those bullish gold do not want to see this rally into mid-late June, the turn cycle is strong and highs in gold in the coming weeks will be very bad for the months ahead.

    • scottycj1 says:

      Silver has made a .618 retrace and today is a CIT for PM’s. Gold blasted thru 1287 and up to the next resistance at 1296.5 If PM’s are going lower it should start no later than tomorrow.

    • phil1247 says:

      mjt

      bradley turns can be accurate or a flop…..
      BUT… if we are screaming up into mid june ….
      i agree that is not good
      because the bradley turns are most effective
      when they are accompanied by emotional trading into the turn
      so .. screaming up to 1339 mid june has me selling

      • mjtplayer says:

        Bradley turns are not that important for gold and not that accurate either. Gold has its own trading cycles coming into play the week following the Fed meeting. A high heading into that week would be very bearish for gold in the proceeding months.

      • pooch77 says:

        We should hit a low around 20/21,then rally in to the 4th I would open short on June 30th

  11. H D says:

    Friday’s close 2438, took them 2 days in this low volatility to get -10 handles 2328 for the pop. The roll is coming.

    What a month for gold. 1300 psychological and technical level. Wild targets all over the interwebs. IMO keep your targets and terminology shorter timeframe. All out crashes, downside blowouts etc is just another persons BTD. There are 4 clear waves in GC this year and they all have some symmetry. JMHO

    • phil1247 says:

      HD ..
      all well and good …. but holding thru the silver DOOZIE “downside blowout”

      must have been painful…… yes?

      • H D says:

        No pain no gain amigo. I was clear, no trades in SI for me. Bullish metals-Been a GC buyer all year. Love the energy phil and I know you don’t need help w set ups but some readers do. To my point about the “doozies” and “blow outs” and pounding the table for $14 silver for weeks is a few days after the low you were here peeling off silver etf longs. That may be confusing to some readers. It’s just a clarity message not an attack.

        • phil1247 says:

          i never said i was not a day trader
          i think most here know that means
          when i dont like what i see i reverse quickly
          like /CL now
          i dont like the short side and see a squeeze brewing

          • H D says:

            Ha, that’s my entire point phil. Bonds, dollar, silver, oil- all these wild targets and blow outs crashes etc when your just gonna scalp it both ways. Can confuse people. Still oil at $16? :mrgreen:

        • phil1247 says:

          also hd….
          as always if you ever want to see a trade ticket

          just ask … 🙂

  12. phil1247 says:

    sold 30 yr and 10 yr cash bonds into spike this am

    zero bonds now …. no shorts either

  13. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/tosmx/item?id=9XGlRj&image

    perfect place for DOLLAR reversal if its going to happen

    especially with ” happy talk ” of 3500 gold now…. of all times

    • phil1247 says:

      bullish above 1290…the ext long .618 support

    • captbara says:

      3500? No, baby steps first.

      Breakout this week was obvious though. Gld targets 125, 130, 150 above 120.

      • phil1247 says:

        agree…
        also would be helpful to have dollar tip its hand
        that it is headed
        to 59 sooner rather than later
        but i suspect a squeeze up over 100
        before the real ” downside blowout “

  14. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  15. phil1247 says:

    /GC

    gold in extension longs now
    little in the way of 1339 target now
    upside acceleration possible above 1280 ext long support

    • fionamargaret says:

      Yuja Wang shows just why she won “Artist of the Year”….a totally stunning performance,

  16. stormchaser80llc says:

    SPX traded in a narrow range today. The question especially with negative divergences on SPX hourly and daily charts is whether this is consolidation or a top? I am favoring consolidation before another leg up. This is based on strong readings from my proprietary Technicals Model, and the fact that recent price action has been taking place in an area void of resistance. Breadth is mixed, but indicators of greatest magnitude are strong rather than weak. VIX gave an hourly MACD BUY signal today, so further strength is possible. Oil was lower, but candle and technical indicators suggest a turn is possible soon. However the bond market, HYG:IEF continues to gradually come off the recent highs on 3/2/2017, negatively diverging with the stock market.

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com) However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!


  17. moment of truth coming for gold.Is the dollar going to cave in (not likely)or rally and bust gold down through the bottom.Goldfingers crossed for an upmove of course.Later.

  18. torehund says:

    Corbyn on the move in England.

  19. UPDATE: As I expected in my last comment on the weekend, stockmarket prices are gradually moving back downwards. The “excuse” this time is obviously sinking oil prices: Oil in a steady downtrend (see chart). Though it broke out briefly above the 34 sma (light blue line on chart), it is now back following it meekly downwards-sidewards. This should give us buying opportunities at least by middle/end of June, when the next important market cycle bottoms occur. Waiting now patiently for buy signals.
    LCrude hourly futures –
    http://imgur.com/a/GRTuF

  20. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #OIL at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

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