Friday update

SHORT TERM: higher open new all-time highs, DOW +62

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 monthly payrolls came in less than expected, the unemployment rate was reported at a 16-year low, and the trade deficit was higher. The market opened 2-points above yesterday’s SPX 2430 close, then dipped to 2428 by 10am. After that the market began rallying to new highs. At 1:30 the SPX hit 2440, then ticked down to end the week at 2439.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.0%. Bonds gained 16 ticks, Crude slid 60 cents, Gold rose $9, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2479 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower 54.6% v 55.1%, and the Q2 GDP estimate was reported lower: 3.4% v 3.7%.

The market opened at a new high, dipped to the 2428 pivot, then rallied to higher highs entering the 2444 pivot range. In the last two days the market has cleared the OEW 2428 pivot, used it as support, then entered the 2444 pivot range. Thus far the market has rallied 36-points from Wednesday’s SPX 2404 low, after rallying, uninterrupted, 66-points from the recent 2353 low. It is starting to look like a third of third wave. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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37 Responses to Friday update

  1. Cup and Handle to 2480ish.
    OPEN MIKE NIGHT at the FED Comedy Club.Your host,LML25:
    These markets are dumber than Kathy Griffin.She doesn’t believe in H&S formations either–just heads.(boooooo)What a crowd.
    Now for our next comic,here’s another head–a Fed head,Janet YELLEN!!!
    “Thanks everyone.Two part joke.So what’s the difference between a 250,000 monthly job number and 138,000?
    Answer is:depends.Part 2,what is a Fed head’s favorite product,while she’s giving a 2 hour speech?Same answer.
    So Donald Trump asked me why I shouldn’t be fired ?I said I know Kathy Griffin very well.” (Boooo).
    LML25:Next is someone who says he has a surefire joke to make everyone laugh,William Dudley (patter of applause).
    “Okay,ready?We’re raising rates 3 more times this year.”(Tremendous laughter,Yellen laughs so hard,well you know).
    The end of Open Mike Night.

  2. fionamargaret says:
    Thanks Tom McClellan

    Thanks Tony….and everyone.xx
    Yes, I have Tchaikovsky 5 twice….do try playing them both, and see if you can pick up on the tonal differences…you will be surprised at how good you are….x

    • fionamargaret says:

      ..and I think Permian will win the Epsom Derby…..Eminent will have a try..

      • fionamargaret says:

        Now this was one exciting, amazing horse race.
        Here we have a jockey, Padraig Beggy, who had had a one year suspension for cocaine, trying to rebuild his career at 31, riding the stablemate Wings of Eagles to Cliffs of Moher (the favourite). And he comes from nowhere to beat everyone, including the Frankel colts Cracksman and Eminent. who placed third and fourth At odds of 40-1 a nice payday for long odds betters, and perhaps a fairy tale ending for Beggy and Wings of Eagles.
        Congratulations to Aidan O’Brian…6 times winner of the Derby,,,.and a winner in real-life for having faith in Beggy and giving him a chance……and kisses to Wings of Eagles…xxx

        • fionamargaret says:

          …and in a sweet little post-script, O’Brian said “you know Cliffs of Moher is still a baby.”…yes, the winner Wings of Eagles was not just his stablemate but his comfort pony too…x

  3. UPDATE: Looks like extreme (temporary?) topping acfivity, with multiple sell-signals, embedded indicators and – divs all over the place.
    e.g. rut hourly futures –

  4. Thanks Tony. The market continues to unfold along expected lines and in a manner consistent with Tony’s count and forward guidance. Yesterday had little to do with Fib extensions, rather it was about making Minute iii equal in length to Minute i……77 points. Yesterday we talked about 2440 to 2444, the former an extension and the latter a TC pivot. Today 2440 was hit with a sense of calm…. CME odds of a rate increase next week have been increasing and now stand at 96%. And if recent history is a guide to the future, we should see at least a 2% to 3% pullback as part of Minute iv. Owing to seasonality patterns, I want to think we will see a bounce in July followed by the long awaited, larger pullback in August as part of Int IV. Kudos Tony on another killer pivot (2428).

  5. Lee X says:

    Thanks Dude

  6. vivelaamo says:

    Are people still looking at B waves? Come on guys give it up already!

  7. tony caldaro says:

    Micro 3, of Minute iii, of Minor 5 topped at 2440

    • NEWBIE says:

      Tony C, next pullback should take us to where on spx? Thanks.

      • tony caldaro says:

        may be only 20 points like the last one

      • 123 abc says:

        The next notable pullback will be Intermediate-iv wave, at approx 5% (100 points).

        So assuming Intermediate-iii ends at 2494 (i.e. typically, Intermediate-iii = Intermediate-i * 1.618); then, an approx 5% pullback for Intermediate-iv would be around 2380.

        2380 would coincide with the 2385 pivot range; and, approx 23.6% retrace of Intermediate-iii wave.

        • kvilia says:

          Excellent answer, abc. Down from 2440 in C or up from 2420 to 2494 with no stops. That’s a 120 points down and 75 points up as a gift. Thanks, again, abc and Tony.

  8. 123 abc says:

    A turnaround from here which takes out 2403 would suggest it was a b-wave all along since the 2329 low. Exceeding 2450 aborts the enthusiast b-wave scenario; i.e. @2450: b = a * 1.618 (maximum extent of b-wave under OEW).

  9. kvilia says:

    Have a good weekend, Tony. Hypothetically speaking, if ES decides to turn around in the next couple of days, what count would it represent if B has already been exceeded? Thank you.

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