Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then pullback, DOW -21

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight and the market opened 3 points above yesterday’s SPX 2413 close. Right after the open the market started to pullback. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower, and at 10am pending home sales were reported lower. At 10am the SPX hit 2404, and then rebounded to 2411 by 11am. For the next few hours the market stayed in a trading range between 2404-2411 until 2pm, when the FED released the beige book: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook201705.htm. Then after hitting SPX 2405 just past 2pm, the market rallied to 2412 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.10%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude dropped $1.45, Gold rose $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2411 and 2385 pivots, with resistance at the 2428 and 2444 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP at 8:15; weekly jobless claims at 8:30; then ISM, construction spending and auto sales at 10am.

The market opened within 3 points of the all-time high today, AMZN and GOOG hit $1000, and then the market started to pullback. Profit taking trigger? At today’s low the SPX hit 2404, for a 15-point decline from the 2419 all-time high. And this is the first quantifiable pullback, on our shortest timeframe, since this rally began at SPX 2353. Pullbacks during the first rally of this uptrend, SPX 2329-2406, ranged from 14-22 points. The current 15-point pullback, thus far, fits right into this range. Should the market drop to the OEW 2385 pivot, then we will have a pattern that could be more significant than just a normal pullback. Whether it is a minor pullback or major pullback the market still appears to be heading to higher highs before this uptrend concludes. Should the SPX drop all the way back to 2353, however, then the uptrend probably topped at 2419. Until something more dramatic than a 14-22 point pullback occurs, the short term count remains unchanged. Short term support is at the 2411 and 2385 pivots, with resistance at the 2428 and 2444 pivots. Short term momentum dropped from a negative divergence to quite oversold at today’s lows, then bounced above neutral in the afternoon. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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116 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. stockop says:

    could not pull the trigger…. they hit the bottom of my YM target legitimately right at the close. Not going to surprise me in the least if they run it down overnight after trapping the little guys. Will be so mad at myself. ES just ran through my targets and made me hesitate. looks like the 4:01 reversal is in full effect. dang it

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    • vivelaamo says:

      You mean to short? Don’t worry you’ll have another chance to tomorrow as it continues higher on NFP.

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      • stockop says:

        got a strict system. cant go much higher from here or it would be a quick in and out for a small loss. very, very good risk/return at these levels imo. i’ve been watching this rise biding my time until now and than i cant do it. i hope ur right and the markets give me another shot in the morning, or they gap it up overnight and make me thankful i didnt place the trade.

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  2. torehund says:

    6 months or Rut chop, its now or never🐞🐞🐞

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  3. tommyboys says:

    New high in the A/D – real strong today at almost 4/1 positive!

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  4. micky says:

    apple looks promising

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  5. johnnymagicmoney says:

    good thing tons of new waiters and bartenders help the market focus on every job report instead of poor auto sales, inflation data, productivity, home sales, GDP, and China data

    thank god!!!! market is hysterical

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    • tommyboys says:

      Auto sales and Home sales busting. Dunno where you live but we just had a rcord auto year and likely tie it this year or better. My home is up like 35% the past two years and no one is selling where I live in the Detroit area. Auto suppliers are flush. Ford just handed out annual bonus of like $13-20k+ to EVERY line worker!

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      • Dex T says:

        Detroit?? Are you kidding me???

        35% in 2 years according to what metric???? What kind of “home” are you living in?

        Explain how this can be happening when that area is suffering a population decline?

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        • tommyboys says:

          Suburb of Detroit. Downtown Detroit is booming as well however, New Red Wings/Pistons stadium, restaurants, Condos, new technology companies migrating for what was cheap rent. Huge Art scene now in the old Russell complex. Actually a shortage of housing downtown since GM bought the Ren Cen and moved its headquarters there. Big investments by local billionaiires – Illitch, Suave & Gilbert etc… I think Dan Gilbert has bought and renovated half the buildings in Detroit. Think he fancies himself as the next Trumpster. Look him up. This ain’t ’08 anymore.

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    • fotis2 says:

      You forgot pizza delivery and entertainment park employees!Now that gives extra spine to the economy.

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    • vivelaamo says:

      Good job we have this blog for the usual suspects to remind us the market is a bubble and we can continue to buy dips.

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  6. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Don’t forget first of the month pension buying on all this…which I know nobody has.Avi by the way,says over 2428–straight line to 2500,then correction to 2300 then 2600.Next year,a big correction.Adios all for the day. (Hey,even GDX is hanging in there somehow.)

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    • kvilia says:

      Really? Not so sure. BTW, courtesy of DH: http://tos.mx/a6Gzay. This is specifically for scotty and mjt. BTW, dh is also saying that gold is extremely undervalued compared to debased dollar. At some point this year GDX will explode.

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      • scottycj1 says:

        That chart is the ratio of GC to ES…..has nothing to do with the dollar. ES and GC
        As you can see there is a long way to go to reach the 99-2000 level. Plenty of room for gold to fall and the ES to rise. Its obvious you dont understand what your looking at.
        And I love the pinpoint accuracy of your GDX forecast. ” At some point this year GDX will explode”

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        • tommyboys says:

          Agree Gold going no where. Not sure the chronic obsession with it on here. Gold to $700 sometime in 2018 or sooner.

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        • kvilia says:

          scotty, you are clearly not following. It has everything to do with a dollar because ES is priced in dollars. Did you know that? To break it down further for you, ES gain in dollars over the past 17 years is over 60%, however if priced in gold, ES actually lost over 60% in value. And this is what is called massive devaluation of a dollar. So gold clearly has not gone anywhere in the past 17 years.
          Regarding accuracy, you were calling for gold to fall under 1000 since the beginning of the year. If someone can show me how to search for specific posts, I’d refresh your memory.
          Cheers,

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