Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: lower open pullback, DOW -51

Over the holiday Asian markets gained 0.5%, European markets gained 0.2%, and US index futures were lower. At 8:30 personal income/spending were reported higher, and the CPI was reported higher. At 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher too. The market opened 6 points below Friday’s SPX 2416 close, then ticked down to 2409 just past 10am. At 10am consumer confidence was reported slightly lower. After a rebound to SPX 2415 by noon the market went into a trading range for the rest of the day, closing at 2413.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ gained ended mixed. Bonds rose 9 ticks, Crude slipped 20 cents, Gold dipped $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2411 and 2385 pivots, with resistance at the 2428 and 2444 pivots. Tomorrow: the Chicago PMI at 9:45, pending home sales at 10am, then the FED’s beige book at 2pm.

The market opened lower today, traded down to SPX 2409, bounced to 2415, then remained in that tight range for the rest of the day. The OEW 2411 pivot is providing support. No change on the short term count from the 2329 downtrend low: 2406-2353-2419 so far. The rally from SPX 2353 has not had any notable reversals yet. Maybe one is underway now. Short term support remains at the 2411 and 2385 pivots, with resistance at the 2428 and 2444 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day around neutral. Best to your trading! The Swarm is next.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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90 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. NEWBIE says:

    Mr. Market is trying to sell their shares without you selling yours so they can gap this down below 2400 tomorrow and bring max pain to the complacent.

  2. Hugh Jazole says:

    Sky high carbon taxes needed to avoid “climate catastrophe”


    • scottycj1 says:

      Just another tax grab…… www. The new ice age.net

    • Richard Glackin says:

      Doesn’t it make you wonder how these idiots figure they can buy their way out of earth’s temperature cycles? Truly amazing. By the way, the whole time they were predicting temperature rise and cataclysmic events over the past 20 years, we were in a cooling cycle. That switched over to the warming side of the cycle about three years ago.

    • CB says:

      Bankers have always liked the idea of creating a new commodity market where carbon credits would be traded…Goldman likes it .. Nuff said ; )

  3. All this bear talk is simply going to result in a rip your face off rally thru June 5th. Just more shorts that will capitulate over 2418 and let the rocket fly. Bullish. Wave 2 ended this am. again if you blink you missed it. good luck

  4. For anybody considering that SPX is in Primary V like NYA…what would be the targets of PV?

    Primary 1 was 667 to 1,220, or 553 points.

    If Primary IV was 1,810 last Feb, and Primary V = Primary I, then PV would top out at 1,810 + 553 = 2,363…and we’ve already surpassed that.

    If PV reached 1.618 of PI, then that gives a target of 553 * 1.618 = 895, and 1,810 + 895 = 2,705.

    If PV extends, and why not, then it can go higher. If this count is wrong and we’re in PIII as Tony contends, then it will go higher. Either way, the market has higher to go. Thus it makes little sense to try to short it for anything other than a shorter-term pullback, and using those pullbacks as buying opportunities – same script since March, 2009. Even so, why not just ride it out and stay long the whole time…it seems we have some significant headroom, regardless of which count you prefer.

    Significant investing success can often be found with long periods of inactivity.

    • stockop says:

      most common target is around 2600. tho there is definitely a possibility that this shoots up to 2800 in a blow-off top. that would be almost equivalent to P1 in % terms.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      Very wisell thought out. These are my thoughts exactly. No one knows, without the benefit of hindsight, which count is correct.

  5. vivelaamo says:

    RUT yet another chance to go long. I’ve taken it. Market doesn’t present these chance often.

  6. llerias7 says:

    SPX is screaming:…

  7. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I’m gonna look at this simply….banks warning in the lAst day their profits will be down because of declining trading profits due to low volatility. No better time for them to start distributing and setting up their shirts for the retail suckers that think index funds can’t go wrong. Bankers need to make more……true trade will come through the next drop and rebound…….the banks can’t do well with another six months of this. I said the other day bonds gold and the RUT are showing the mRkets hand. It’s ready to have a nice summer drop. Banks looking like crap……tech needs to join

  8. purplember says:

    It seems like a slow day and if Tony is ok with a personal post.

    Last week was one of the toughest weeks of my life. I lost my mom and hero (unexpectedly). My dad passed away over 30 years ago at a very young age. Mom raised 9 children as single parent devoting all her time to her kids. she’s a strong woman and even stronger faith in God.

    too many have athletes or movie stars as their hero. i was blessed to have one next to me.

  9. scottycj1 says:

    My look at PM’s

    Using ROC–Rate of change—Good sell signals are generated when the oscillator falls below 0.
    The selloff manifests itself in 8 to 10 weeks. This would put the PM’s near a low end of July to mid August. That dosen’t mean prices can’t continue to fall…..only that the sell signal could only last 8 to 10 weeks. How the PM’s close this week….should be important.

  10. close over 2430 today. shorts toast again

  11. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ WPP Test ~ MPTFZ ~ Breakout Retest
    GL All


  12. GDX ,another miserable performance.Couldn’t rally a percent than fell like a bungee diver.Goldfingers AND toes crossed on this one…lol.

  13. Nice reversal.Need to break 2400 to have some fun.Later all.

    • kvilia says:

      Extension longs broken – welcome C or ii.

      • NEWBIE says:

        kvilla, what are your targets ?

        • kvilia says:

          Newbie, I learned the hard way that targets can be quite elusive. We don’t know whether its C or ii. I would ride this one down until the the short trade is broken. Usually shorts are traditional, currently line in the sand is 2412, 15 min chart. Let’s see first if this has legs, by EOD we’ll have a better picture.

          • phil1247 says:

            just because ext long broke doesnt mean go out and short with abandon
            it is a warning to bulls that all is not hunky dory…
            but we dont even have a single 15 min short completed yet
            i am happy to watch from the sidelines

  14. gary61b says:

    ES 2407 will be the support needed to break, then 2403 needs to break to continue.

    • gary61b says:

      ES 2403 did not break… 2408 needs to be validated,so it could touch and drop from 2408 then Looking at 2397 as next bouncing level. Just my thoughts for now.

  15. phil1247 says:

    here comes the bond spike up to target

    time and price meet this week
    moment of truth for bonds

    • phil1247 says:

      TLT / ZB
      bonds hit target and ran away like a scalded cat
      out of bonds now

      no short position yet

  16. UPDATE: Ndx and futures leading the pack…AGAIN!
    Ndx hourly futures –

  17. torehund says:

    oil has a loose foot.

  18. fotis2 says:

    Oil daily bearflag play 44.50 next

  19. Ira tonight:Outside day on SPX.Turned mildly bearish with lower lows.Trying to embed,though.Needs two more days.A pullback would have to occur within these two days or the bullish stochastic takes over.
    GDX:”Bearish now,but could turn quickly with a break of 23.08.Then it would be higher lows,higher highs.”
    LML25:It’s only half a point to get from 22.59,but feels like FIFTY POINTS.I’ll believe it when I see it.

    • fionamargaret says:

      I am still well ahead with UGLD and USLV, but my best stock is TMF, UGAZ I sold, but have bids in….it might surprise, but you have to buy a bit lower to catch the run…
      Keep the faith Learned…I really like the charts you put up on Friday…who knows, but I like his attitude…x

      • Ahhh,Elroy….lol.Can a guy with a name of Elroy be trusted?We’ll find out.

        • fionamargaret says:

          Digging into my past, I was friendly with a cartographer, who drew out land property rights for these old prospectors….seemed to me they were all called Elroy or similar….but what great character studies…and they knew their stuff….loved them…

    • Bud Fox says:

      Thank you for, IRA’s comments…

  20. stormchaser80llc says:

    Breadth indicators still showing that SPX is in the late innings of its uptrend, if it has not yet completed. More recently, recovery after last week’s dip has been muted, and may have already completed. My proprietary technicals model shows a significant change in trend is pending with 4 negative divergences vs. SPX since April. Both of my signals are BULLISH, however I will be looking for a spot to short in the coming days. VIX gave a MACD BUY signal a few days ago and looks to be in a sustainable uptrend until further notice. Oil came off its recent highs last week as predicted, but I would like to see price action for the next couple of days before calling its uptrend complete.

    Much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com) However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

  21. torehund says:

    Is there a producer panic ongoing in oil. Large declines often compels producers to sell more to keep afloat, not only the companies themselves but governments too, in order to balance their budgets, thus perpetuating the overproduction. And prices that were once considered low are once more attractive in order to avoid BKs and budgetdeficits. Think such a situation has been developing for oil AS the price drop has been too long standing. So will oil go where coal is, towards pink Listings and multiple BKs, looking at harbingers like drillers that may very well happen. State oil from Norway is pegged as the state funds the quarterly revenue through a straw bank in Belgium, upholding a fiktive stream of revenue towards the investors at 6 percents. the state then pockets 51 percent back through their majoritet ownership. Another omnious sign of demand destruction (even right in driving season) is uncle sams liqidation of their oil reserves. Many dogs buried and smelling to find good arguments for holding the black stuff right now.

  22. phil1247 says:


    A bottomless pit until ext short breaks

    should be good for gold …..yes ???

  23. kvilia says:

    Need help por favor. Is DRIP tracking short leveraged interest in oil and gas companies as I can see from holdings list? It went 8% up breaking out of a triangle formation when at the same time crude did not change. Are oil and gas companies selling off? This could actually preclude crude drop similar to how GDX has been leading GC lately. Has anyone else spotted the same or I’m just missing something?
    Cheers and thanks in advance.

  24. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #OIL at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  25. kingfrogcash says:

    good chart work on cnbc bank bear case by Carter Worth

    • fionamargaret says:

      CWB.TO might be a good short also.
      It holds the junior oil debt, plus I would think it also is in the mortgage market.
      Just a thought KFC.

  26. All I read is how bullish gold and the miners are–uptrends,higher highs,blah blah blah.But they’re not going anywhere!!!Days like today should be perfect for a 5% GDX rally.But we get nothing.I have lots of doubt…plus the 20d was broken at the end of the day.Bearish action.

    • mjtplayer says:

      Market talk you hear at highs, not lows. Gold is a sell, miners are a short.

      Agree, the price action of late couldn’t be worse in GDX. If GDX does rally, I will add to my short around $24

      • kvilia says:

        mj – you buy if gdx raliies – chart the triangle please.

        • mjtplayer says:

          Gold is in a triangle, GDX is in a bear wedge. Either way, triangles/wedges are consolidation and continuation patterns – i.e. not a change of trend. The trend is down.

        • phil1247 says:


          i have a low in GDX due now ..
          with rally for a month
          then final decline into sept 1
          i wont be buying except for a quick trade
          i am really only interested in the metals

          • mjtplayer says:

            I’m looking at a turn window in late June, about 3-4 weeks from now. Whichever way gold moves into that window, the larger move will be thereafter – in the opposite direction. IMO

            FYI – gold made a high on Friday, the closest perigee of the year in conjunction with the new moon – that was your potential turn date. If gold can’t eclipse Friday’s high, keep tight stops on any longs cause gold could drop into late June. Also, GDX is under-performing badly, which is bearish for gold.

          • Do you mean the metals as opposed to the metal mining stocks (GDX) ?

          • kvilia says:

            GDX and gold is tricky. However, as you pointed out, declines should be bought until the trend changes. MJ got it wrong, he’ll find out soon. I am not sure what one should say if 1340 comes next, I guess I’d say the trend is up. Until it is broken.

            • mjtplayer says:

              The trend is up? Um, no.

              GC, continuous contract, monthly candles; the trend is non-debatable. That said, if gold can get above $1,285 or even better $1,297 in June I will cover my GDX shorts. Until then, the trend is down and April was yet another failure from the downtrend off the 2011 highs – triangles and everything else aside. Until this downtrend breaks, nothing else matters.


  27. stockop says:

    tech leaders are looking toppy, banks are falling, and the transports look like their rally is at an end (i see a very micro 5 down today) . no quantifiable reason other than intuition, but i am convinced this rally is going to end on a gap and crap. in my eyes the charts are saying tomorrow would be the most ideal time to cause an early morning capitulation, hit my upper ES and YM targets, and complete a potentially valid wave structure. will begin scaling into a short position if and only if the target criteria is hit and the tape agrees if/when reached. morning gap up would be a significant added bonus.

    • tommyboys says:

      Your “gap and crap” call may end up being bang on…it DID gap & crap but now will there be follow through?

      • stockop says:

        i actually don’t think the end is here yet. while a down move from here would leave me out i need to see new ath for me to get in. the crap was a little too hard and fast today lol

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