Friday update

SHORT TERM: lower open consolidation day, DOW -3

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1% as well. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Q1 GDP was reported higher: 1.2% v 0.7%, and durable goods were reported lower: -0.7% v 2.3%. The market opened 2 points below yesterday’s SPX 2415 record close. In the opening minutes the SPX ticked down to 2412, then tried to rally. At 10am consumer sentiment was reported lower: 97.1 v 97.7. At 10:30 the SPX hit 2417, then went into 5-point trading range for the rest of the day closing at 2416.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.10%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude rose 85 cents, Gold rallied $11, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2411 and 2385 pivots, with resistance at the 2428 and 2444 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 55.1% v 55.0%, and the Q2 GDP estimate was lowered: 3.7% v 4.1%.

The market opened lower today for the first time in a week. At today’s low the SPX was only 7 points from yesterday’s 2419 all-time high. Not much of a pullback after a 66-point rally, and looking more like a consolidation day. With Monday a holiday it is likely many took Friday off for a 4-day holiday. After clearing the OEW 2411 pivot yesterday the market has since used that pivot as support. Should the SPX lose pivot support (2404) then we should start seeing some subdivisions in this rally. Until then we see the OEW 2428 pivot being challenged next. Best to your extended weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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30 Responses to Friday update

  1. For laughs,here’s Elroy’s Elliott Wave on a few items.

  2. fionamargaret says:

    I shall do the charts tomorrow, but if you would like to listen to some music with me…..

  3. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et OEW team; great analysis, great blog; a good long weekend to everyone.

  4. Frank Gaggia, Jr. says:

    Does the fact that the percentage of stocks below their 200 day M.A. is declining as the market makes new highs concern anyone?

    Also, just getting back into trading, and looking at AMD chart it appears we’re in primary ll wave. The minor waves aren’t labeled. How do I know when this wave is over? Thinking of buying calls at that point.

  5. Thanks Tony. A pretty decent display of strength in advance of an extended weekend. The center of gravity was yesterday’s close.

  6. vivelaamo says:

    Next shock to rock the markets. Labour win UK general election with a far left wing prime minster. Make sure you buy it.

    • pooch77 says:

      When is that election?Shock up or down.Course up is no longer shocker

      • 123 abc says:

        June 8th

      • vivelaamo says:

        Down then up. It’s a long shot though but younger voters seem to be leaning towards labour. They are trying to target the same young liberals that voted to remain in Europe and regarded anybody that voted to leave as a uneducated racist.

    • Brits are conservatives and unemotional, they decided brexit and will support brexit. May will win. The Scotts have a different parliament.

  7. vivelaamo says:

    My point being what is the correlation between growth and benefits. US has small growth but increased benefited. Indian and China have massive growth but zero benefits. Yet millions of people live in poverty. I don’t get it.

  8. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony
    Have a great holiday weekend !

  9. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. Some interesting comments yesterday. It seems that because more people are claiming food stamps. (Which I can only assume means beniftis). The stock market should be dropping? I would like to invite the person who posted that chart to expand on this further. It’s quite fascinating.

    • Dr. Ben Carson recently addressed that very subject and argued that poverty is frequently a state of mind with recipients of public assistance perfectly content to live in subsidized housing, draw cash benefits and rely upon food stamps. Use of food stamps began increasing in 2001 and nearly doubled to close to 50 million households under Obama’s tenure but has receded little as the great recession becomes a distant memory. Also, more people became disabled during his two terms; a coincidence I am sure. The market fully understands that, for many, its simply a lifestyle decision, not a sign of a collapsing economy. Further, attempts to trim issuance of stamps through state mandates insisting that able bodies individuals without children find work, is being met with highly predictable and partisan resistance.

  10. Gold will have decent -divs after today and will likely show how they’re supposed to work–especially when the asset class is not a favored one by P P T.Higher highs,but that’s about it.The downtrend line awaits at 1280 AND if the dollar starts to get out of its embedded stochastic,the odds are for another breakdown.GDX not really impressive today,as usual,though above key MAs.They also did a fake rally last time,so a dive below the 10 and 20d should be considered very bearish.
    Not in 100% yet.Later all.

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