SHORT TERM: higher open new highs, DOW +71
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.9%. Europe opened lower and ended mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 234k v 233k. The market opened 6 points above yesterday’s SPX 2404 close and continued to rally. Just past 11am the SPX hit an all-time high at 2418, then pulled back to 2412 by noon. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2419, then closed at 2415.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.75%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude lost $2.70, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 2411 and 2385 pivots, with resistance at the 2428 and 2444 pivots. Tomorrow: Q1 GDP (est. 0.9%) and durable goods at 8:30, then consumer sentiment at 10am.
The market opened higher today for the fifth day in a row. The SPX/NDX/NAZ all hit new all-time highs, but the DOW only managed to exceed its April high. The current rally continues to climb without a quantifiable pullback. Thus far it has risen 66 points from last week’s SPX 2353 low. This is the best uninterrupted rally of the entire uptrend, suggesting a third wave underway: 2406 wave 1, 2353 wave 2. While the SPX/NDX/NAZ all look impulsive, the DOW does not. It looks like it could be forming a diagonal triangle Minor wave 5, with wave C underway. Unless it strongly kicks in to the upside in the coming days/weeks this pattern would explain its lethargic action. Short term support is now at the 2411 and 2385 pivots, with resistance at the 2428 and 2444 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day overbought. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend