Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open in quiet trading, DOW +43

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were lower, then higher, overnight. At 8:30 new home sales were reported lower: 569k v 642k. The market opened 4 points above yesterday’s SPX 2394 close, then pulled back to 2394 by 10am. Just past noon the SPX hit 2401, then pulled back to 2397 by 1pm. After that the market traded in a 4-point range closing at SPX 2398.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.05%. Bonds lostΒ 9 ticks, Crude roseΒ 40 cents, Gold dropped $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2385 and 2336 pivots, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Tomorrow: existing home sales at 10am, then the FOMC minutes at 2pm.

The market opened above yesterday’s high today, hit SPX 2401 around noon, then traded sideways for the rest of the day. The rally from last week’s SPX 2353 low continues. Today the SPX/DOW outperformed the NDX/NAZ which is positive medium term. While the DOW is still a way from all-time highs, the SPX is now closer to its all-time high, in percentage terms, than the NAZ. Should the cyclicals continue to lead, this uptrend should continue higher. Short term support is at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2353, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Yesterday’s potential short term negative divergence was cleared early today with the higher highs, and momentum ended the day overbought. Best to your trading! The Swarm is next.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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113 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. vivelaamo says:

    There will Maximum pain for shorts before we turn. RUT hasn’t even got started. No top until next week at the earliest.

  2. Page says:

    Sell in May starts as early as tomorrow.

  3. kvilia says:

    Newbie maybe making some cash soon… Did anybody catch ‘increased risk to valuations’ statement?

  4. DJI got within .87 of 21010.Holds for now.GDX 10d at 22.78 getting challenged.Whipsaw stuff.Bitcon up $5000 a minute now(slight exaggeration).CBs must be buying too.Later.

  5. ajaysinghi says:

    Dow cmp 21000. Top is finally in.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Is that the same as the top in spx on Monday? I keep waiting to see this level it will take years to reach but you’re not helping yourself.

      All the best.

      • ajaysinghi says:

        Good. I have finally decided to quit this place. I have better things to do with my life than deal with trolls like you.

        If I am smart enough to know that 2300 on Spx is coming, I certainly know how to fix my mistakes.

        I am very disappointed that Tony would rather have spammers like you than EW analysts like me.

        • fotis2 says:

          I for one appreciate your posts keep them going you will have noticed trolls are devoid of Market views.

        • vivelaamo says:

          Don’t be so sensitive. People want to hear your views so carry on posting. I wont respond. All the best.

          • fionamargaret says:

            Testosterone maybe gets in the way, and things are said…..you are all terrific guys, and I love you all…nobody is leaving..
            Now, I have to talk with stcoleridge……maybe discuss “The Ancient Mariner – The Musical”
            It could be totally brilliant.

    • stcoleridge says:


  6. vivelaamo says:

    We all know Bitcoins is going to be the short of the century one day. But trying to predict could make you bankrupt.

  7. blackjak100 says:

    Whether a new ATH is made or not, I still think minor 4 is still underway and a big C wave towards 2200ish is on deck.

  8. the PPT has pretty much halted all trading while we wait for the dow to catch up. Amazing how they do that.

  9. phil1247 says:

    this thing is great !
    made 10% in 10 minutes ………….. WOW!

  10. Every point DJT gets above 9100 is more of the all clear for equities and warning for gold/GDX.After a slight struggle,GDX gave way to the downside.See if it cascades or just slowly drops today.Only a rally above the 10 and 20 d is bullish again.Good luck all.

  11. vivelaamo says:

    What just happened to small caps? Fat fingers?

  12. phil1247 says:


    looks like bond turn next wed will actually be a LOW..as originally thought
    seemed impossible a few days ago but more likely now
    /ZB holding onto extension long by a fingernail..
    if it breaks.. will go with TBT into the low

  13. allen1929 says:

    test see no posts since open

  14. vivelaamo says:

    So is this move up corrective or impulsive?

  15. Richard Glackin says:

    Things are getting VERY interesting…First off we have a slew of 1-2’s since the 13.62 bottom in silver back in December of 2015. It’s looking like THIS is the time to get into USLV if you aren’t already. Second, Moody’s downgraded China! Now THAT is a winning move for starting a ‘C’ wave down. And, yes, the ES is looking like a top is in place…can’t be sure but it’s looking that way. And, it all makes sense…’C’ wave down while metals surge.

    Furthermore, three White House ‘leakers’ have been caught…Obama staffers that were imbedded by converting them to career government employees before Obama’s departure on January 20.

  16. phil1247 says:

    51.79 target hit!
    next ext long target is 52.40
    go UCO!

  17. ajaysinghi says:

    Hi Tony,

    Need some help. Can the A wave of a flat be a triple zig zag?

  18. I know,I said no mo’ Trader Moe,but looking back to a chart he had in April,check out the olive green path he had as a possibility. Purple is out.The green trajectory is fairly close.Keep an eye on it.Gold breaking 1245 tonight would lead to 1228 and 1214.Under 1214 is “toast”,probably burnt toast at that.

  19. Draw the lines, this is possible ascending triangle forming.

  20. fotis2 says:

    CL monthly chart bearflag


  21. GdX broke the 10 and 20 ema.Unless this is a fake breakdown,”Will This Triangle Be Unbroken?”…the answer is no (with apologies to various country groups).

    • mjtplayer says:

      GDX weekly BB width is extremely tight, only the week of July 2nd, 2015 saw a tighter band width in the past 10 years. GDX is ready to rock and roll sharply in one direction, probably lower…

      If gold closes this week or this month below support at $1,240 then it’s toast.

      The next cycle date for gold/miners is due late June, could be straight down into that time frame for an important low. We’ll see…

      • kvilia says:

        This is definitely a possibility. Gold usually sells off into FOMC. If it does not, it will explode up on high volume – coiling.

  22. ariez5 says:

    This is what I have been listening to tonight: Glenn Gould playing Brahms’s 1st Concerto with Bernstein conducting. Gould insisted on tempi so slow that Bernstein felt the need to issue a disclaimer to the audience at the beginning. It’s quite different from any other recording you will hear.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Thank you Ariez…I have listened to it before, and ended up feeling for Bernstein…(I was blushing with discomfort)…it is not easy trying to keep things together if you have a soloist who hears the music differently…like the Turkish pianist I featured recently..
      There is supposed to be dialogue between the soloist and orchestra, with the conductor allowing the soloist to basically dictate to a degree.
      I shall feature the Turkish pianist tomorrow playing Beethoven 3.
      I compared him to Gould the last time, as he sings/speaks as he is playing…great proficiency….but different….and the encore…..look back about a week or so ago and see if you can find him..
      It was a total delight to hear from you, and I will listen to this again……x

  23. stormchaser80llc says:

    SPX continued higher today despite negative divergences on the hourly chart across the board. However, this has only served to strengthen negative divergences on what could be an ending diagonal (1-2-3-4-5) of C of 2 higher. Technical analysis clearly favors bears here.

    I am neutral the market right now with lower than typical confidence. My trading signal based on my Technicals Model is now neutral, after being favorable for those short. Yet my other signal went bullish yesterday. SPX is above its 20 dma again, and both McClellan and my proprietary Technicals Model are now positive. Breadth is more broadly bottoming and improving. The A-D SPX line made another new All Time High today. VIX hasn’t bottomed but may be soon.

    I would be neutral oil here, closing the day near its 200 dma and the top of its Bollinger Band, and also making a doji candle today.

    Much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com) However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

  24. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Chris Kimble

    Thanks Tony, and everyone. xx

  25. Mary773 says:

    “Should the cyclicals continue to lead, this uptrend should continue higher.”
    Valuable insight.
    Thank you, Tony.

  26. Thanks Tony. While we may see yet higher prices, I find this interesting: 61.8% of the move from 2329 to 2406 is 47.5 pts and when added to 2353 gives us 2400.5……pretty close to today’s high which also aligned with price structure and prior highs. If we start at 2322 the target moves up to 2405 followed by your pivots.

  27. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #GOLD at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

    • CB says:

      Nice charts, bourag. Thanks.
      The recent “golden cross” (50/200) is pretty constructive..

  28. tony caldaro says:

    It’s a startup … correct

  29. One of the charts I think will mean something,someday.

  30. pooch77 says:

    One little bump up tomorrow and then Fed while engineer a 2 day drop

  31. CB says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Hmm..sounded like the guy from JPM was just trying to talk down this ratio.. https://www.screencast.com/t/zOn44ORp

  32. captbara says:

    Cleveland Cavs in wave 4 of major 5 of P5. It’s going to be another close finals match.

  33. vivelaamo says:

    Uk terror threat raised to critical. First time since 2007.

    • PM May says “another attack is imminent.”

      • vivelaamo says:

        Yes. A man arrested in the Birmingham carrying an axe and baseball bat near where a Virgil was held. God only knows what may have happened. Scary times.

        • Lee X says:

          Have you Brits ever heard of the “Chicago way ” ?

          • vivelaamo says:

            Like many places all races and cultures live side by side in peace. All it takes is 1 nutcase.

            Anyway going back to markets I think we see a down day tomorrow. If not then new ATH by end of week in Spx and Dow.

          • CB says:

            It looks like a great movie, Lee… notwithstanding the tragic event yesterday , of course.. the cast is just superb…what a great scene, Lee.

        • May has decided to deploy troops to support the police. I have long maintained we are witnessing the continued growth of third world cities in highly developed countries, particularly in England and Western Europe. No easy answers to assimilation and radicalization challenges.

          • vivelaamo says:

            As tragic as Mondays events were that is a gross exaggeration and this is the first time soliders have been deployed. Yes there is a terror threat but that is from a few mindless evil individuals. It’s not like it’s the norm like it is in many places around the world. Here in the UK we look at the shootings that seem to be the news every few months in America and thank god we live in the UK.

  34. 123 abc says:

    It appears I’ve won last week’s Swarm, this is third THIRD time I’ve won, sorry folks ! πŸ˜‰
    Don’t let me win again, take part people !: https://www.research.net/r/NRV7WYP

    Thank you Tony et al, appreciate your daily OEW expertise.

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