Thursday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then rally, DOW +56

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.0%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.6%. US index futures bounced around overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower: 232k v 236k, and the Philly FED was reported higher: 38.8 v 22.0. The market opened 4 points below yesterday’s SPX 2357 close, and then started to rally. At 10am leading indicators were reported higher: 0.3% v 0.4%. Around 10:30 the SPX hit 2369. Then the market pulled back to nearly unchanged by noon. Another rally followed, this time to SPX 2376 by 2:30, then the market pulled back to close at 2366.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.75%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude rose 20 cents, Gold dropped $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow is options expiration.

The market opened at SPX 2353, then immediately rallied 16 points in one hour to 2369. After a pullback to SPX 2360 by 1:30, the market rallied 16 points again in one hour to 2376. A three-wave counter rally, or is the market stabilizing to resume the uptrend. Taking the extreme low of the recent downtrend (SPX 2322), the market has already retraced about 61.8% of the advance to SPX 2406 at today’s SPX 2353 low. A drop below today’s low would be a negative, and a loss of the 2336 pivot range would likely confirm a downtrend. A rally above today’s high would be a positive, and clearing the 2385 pivot range would likely resume the uptrend. Today’s SPX 2353-2376 looks like a key range day. Short term support is at SPX 2353 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2376 and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum rose off of yesterday’s positive divergence to just past neutral. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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121 Responses to Thursday update

  1. pooch77 says:

    ajay looking for a top Tues or Wed than down into 29th

  2. ajaysinghi says:

    Expecting Dow to hit 20600 tomorrow and spx 2362.

    If that happens, go long for tgt of 21000 and 2400.

  3. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Guess Bitcon is this years GDX.Dollar collapses and gold can’t get off zero.Never would have thunk it.

    • fionamargaret says:

      As long as GLD stays above 116, I shall stay long….UGLD.
      Silver has a nice double bottom, so staying long…..USLV
      All within bearish charts…..but for now UP. x

      • learnedmylesson25 says:

        Agree with those perameters.My only concern is that the dollar keeps dropping,but gold doesn’t want to break the long term downtrend line.THEN,the dollar reverses at some point and kills gold.But so far,no damage done.Good luck.

  4. Jack Sparrow says:

    BJ- if we go with your expanded B – then how about running flat instead of c going below A..

    • blackjak100 says:

      I hate running flats, but entirely possible because MACD reached as oversold as minor 2 and it can he counted as a 5. If it is, massive strength on the horizon. You can count 5 waves up from 2353, but is it 1 or A? Weekly $SPX down 4 pts as of now.

      I don’t think we will find out answer today, but Monday.

    • scottycj1 says:

      It’s not a b wave

  5. NEWBIE says:

    $VIX is telling you this is last push before big drop

  6. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Job well done PPT (don’t say it tommyboys).

  7. phil1247 says:

    2385 target hit!
    stops moved way up
    have a great weekend all !

  8. target 2235 ? Down target?? Is this possible?

  9. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Test & Break (Holds?) New Highs Possible.
    GL & Good Weekend All

  10. im going to try a short here. Good risk reward. But bulls always seem to pull the football at times like this. will use a 5 point stop at 2388. good luck all

    • bought spxu for 16.57 sold it for 16.57. will be neutral from here. looking more like a trend up day with a breakout to the upside, beautiful day in Scottsdale going to go play golf. Look forward to your weekend update tony. Thank you all

  11. vivelaamo says:

    Newbie good to see you back with your crazy posts. The blog not the same without you 😊

  12. vivelaamo says:

    RUT may just turn here, 50% retrace of Mondays high. Wouldn’t put money on it though just yet.

    • tommyboys says:

      RUT looks like it needs to swing back lower intraday now but on the daily it looks set to blast higher. Its OPEX though so ANYTHING can happen of course. Tons of crosscurrents for sure.

  13. blackjak100 says:

    Pretzel says 2383 is key level to watch, ironically high of day so far. Price has broken above channel from 2352, but could be a false break

  14. micky says:

    the line of yesterday moved to the 84 area cos the market took its time with the pb, gotto be careful though as it may have made nested ones and twos.

  15. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Dollar down to 97.16 and gold can’t catch a bid.Meanwhile stocks moving for a date with more -divs?Difficult to say.Any opinions on that?

  16. phil1247 says:

    spx 2385 coming pronto…………10 at 10?

  17. CampFreddie says:

    It’s probably better to have him inside the tent pissing out,
    than outside the tent pissing in.
    — President Lyndon Johnson on FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover —

  18. gary61b says:

    ES I do like 2375 or 2378 to 2380 area for end of 2 of c. But sentiment on friday up days could shoot to the 2390 level for a 76% retrace. Please return to your seat and get comfortable. 🙂

  19. learnedmylesson25 says:
    A summary of why stocks MAY rally from here.
    As we detailed earlier, next week’s James Comey hearing is certainly setting up as a ‘grab yr popcorn’ moment with Democrats lining up for their 5 minutes of fame to ask the question that ‘proves’ Trump deserves impeachment. However, it appears there is no need for the hearing as Mr. Comey already confirmed – under oath – that “he has not been pressured to close an investigation for political purposes.”

    Testifying under oath in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee on May 3rd, Comey states that he has not been pressured to close an investigation for political purposes, “not in my experience.”

  20. dan pulford says:

    Short squeeze SPX

  21. learnedmylesson25 says:

    I just noticed this.A liberal interpretation,but 4 black crows in the dollar?If true,it may have a difficult time getting above 99.50.We’ll see.

  22. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Ira says gold under 1242 is not a good thing.Below 1214 ,time to play “Taps”,by whichever symphonic orchestra that can be pasted.
    The currencies are not favorable right now for PMs(my opinion).GDX didn’t act well two days ago.In retrospect,that foretold Thursday’s 3% move down.Still,Ira is optimistic that a pullback can be bought for another leg up.Today,I’ll probably have to sell once it breaks 22.50 (after hours,it’s close already).
    Good luck all.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Another P&F from 2014….GDX which I am not familiar with…I would think your 21 is what I would go with, and if it goes through there, I would look at 19.5, and see what happens…
      So there you are…your own charts, MJT who is phenomenal too….and mine.
      I appreciate your Ira synopsis…good stuff Learned.,PWTADANRRO%5BP%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!3!!!2!20%5D

    • torehund says:

      Save your money until later if you arent buying gold in ex US currency’, reading Martin Armstrongs latest on gold a “false move” is required thats an abc down in EW terms. It will pay not to go against HIS wisdom if you are playing the larger order patterns.

      • learnedmylesson25 says:

        What’s your DXY count Tore?How did this move to new lows change your opinion for where we’re at?

        • torehund says:

          I still think the euro will bottom out at 0,3 to the Usd posted on my blog way back, heck in my Youth the German mark was at that level, I believe there is a memory in currencies too and the great unwind may be upon US pretty soon. Good news for refugees their hands may be needed with this Enormous stimulus.

  23. fotis2 says:

    Close bellow 2322 confirms DT massive -Div on weekly will it shrug it off again or sell sell sell

  24. stormchaser80llc says:

    A bounce today after Wednesday’s bloodbath. I am fairly certain that the uptrend from November is now complete, and it seems like we are impulsing lower. After reaching the 2351 support Wednesday, we saw a bounce to the 2370 resistance line today. The SPX hourly chart did not show any negative divergence’s at today’s highs meaning higher highs are more likely than not. In this case, I would count us being in a Wave 2 higher off Wednesday’s lows.

    My proprietary Technicals Model continues to weaken, showing several negative divergences which likely support further downside to the market in time. McClellan was lower. Breadth was mixed today, any gains were muted. Oil continues to make gains and its technicals look healthy.

    Much more FREE analysis at my site ( However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback!

  25. mjtplayer says:

    Interesting data point, with today’s high in the VIX of 16.30 we eclipsed the high of April at 16.28. Why is this important? We also undercut the low of April, meaning the monthly May VIX candle has fully engulfed the April candle and every monthly candle for 4 months before it. A 5 month engulfing candle is something to note and keep an eye on.

    Massive potential ED in the VIX chart:

  26. Haven’t been here for a while. Another nonsensical update. Take your pick up or down.

      • fionamargaret says:

        Fred, I was quite surprised at the extent of Bill’s repertoire….yes, I realized later you were naming one of his albums Everyone Digs Bill Evans.
        Bill did not have an easy life, but when I am researching artists, that seems to be a common thread.
        Mendelssohn I have a soft spot for…he was not as accepted as the other composers of his day, but after being somewhat ostracized by them, when the naysayers died, he took their music and presented it for them….x

  27. Thanks Tony
    it’s hard to believe in a bullish count at this moment
    Very complicated

  28. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Miners ETF (GDX) is near a critical juncture and may foreshadow what will happen with gold prices over the next several months. The Gold Miners ETFs typically outperforms gold when gold is in a strong uptrend. When GDX is weak, typically gold prices are weak. If gold is to make a bigger push to the upside, GDX will likely need to break out of its three-month triangle pattern. The top of the triangle is $24.35, so a strong closing price above that would signal the breakout. If that breakout occurs, the target is $29. The $28 to $29 region is also resistance (and former support) since last July. On the other hand, if GDX fails to break higher and instead drops below $21, that doesn’t bode well for gold or the miners. A drop below $21 provides a target of $16.40 (height of the triangle subtracted from the breakout point).
    –From Investopedia.
    LML25:Makes sense.I’ve seen some EW analysts say we had a 5 wave completed pattern to 23.50,now a small a-b-c pullback–then to 28.I’ll be out after 22.50–but if 21 holds (based on this)I’ll give it a shot getting back in.
    Good luck all.

  29. torehund says:

    As expected Rut turned after the abcde correction, sure a breakdown of this pattern is a disaster…however the silver-linning is a 3 of 3 ride to the stratosphere.

    • pooch77 says:

      Can you elaborate

      • torehund says:

        Look at my latest Rut count on my blog, the flat phase denotes an abc, what goes up thereafter is the d-wave and wave e down is in progress. It may be a bit lpnger still but almost retraced fully the previous up wave and upheld the positive price-divergence. A new up pattern means 3 of 3 ahead, which is the meaty part of the 3 rd wave. Hope it pans out like this. Clues supporting is the Tbt count which could be very positive. Here in Norway farmers strike, not shipping food into stores. Private sector is squeezed beyond sustainability. But AS they say, the State is the new manna in absense of oil.

  30. 123 abc says:

    Chris Cornell (1964-2017)

    • mjtplayer says:

      +1 for Chris, so sad…

      • fionamargaret says:

        …the life of a musician is tremendously hard…you live to play, but sometimes the music is too much to bear…after the adulation, alone in a hotel room …travelling, unravelling.. oh Chris we loved you. x

  31. blackjak100 says:

    Three targets for 3 of C assuming today’s high marked 2 of C…

    100% ext = 2323
    1.272% ext = 2308
    1.618% ext = 2290

    If 2 of C ended today short of 50% retrace, I favor latter 2 targets

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