Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: new high open then pullback, DOW -2

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 housing starts were reported lower: 1172k v 1203k, and building permits were reported lower: 1229k v 1260k. Then at 9:15 industrial production was reported higher: 1.0% v 0.4%, and capacity utilization was reported higher: 76.7% v 76.1%. The market opened at SPX 2406, four points above yesterday’s close, and at a new all-time high. Then it immediately started to pullback. At 10:30 the SPX hit 2396, bounced to 2403 by 12:30, hit 2398 by 2:30, then closed at 2401.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.35%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold rose $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2385 and 2336 pivots, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Today the Q2 GDP estimated was raised to 4.1% v 3.6%.

The market opened at SPX 2406 today then immediately pulled back to 2396 in the first hour of trading. After that it went into a trading range for the rest of the day. Thus far the pullback is not quite significant enough to confirm a down wave on either of the two short term timeframes we track. A drop down to the low-2390’s would do it. We continue to maintain a five small wave count up from the SPX 2329 downtrend low. Should this pullback drop to SPX 2382 or lower, then the 2406 would be labeled either all of Minor 5 or Minute i of Minor 5. The OEW 2411 pivot is certainly offering some stiff resistance. SPX 2401 in early March, then after a downtrend, SPX 2404 and SPX 2406 recently. SPX 2361 still remains the uptrend/downtrend critical level. Clearing the 2411 pivot range would offer more upside to the uptrend. Tax reform hearings start Thursday, and Friday is options expiration. Short term support remains at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2361, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Short term momentum displayed a negative divergence at the open and momentum has dropped to below neutral. The Swarm is next. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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194 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. vivelaamo says:

    Gaps filled and profits taken. Anything else is a bonus now. What a day!!

  2. fotis2 says:

    Aha!Well bully to conspiracy theorists this is why why he got fired!Carry a hanky man.!

    ”Former FBI director James.B.Comey caught on surveillance cameras blowing his nose on the curtains in the oval office”re: American Spectator….

  3. elmer510 says:

    SPX was below 2361 for short while, perhaps ten minutes, down to 2359,5.
    I’m not sure how Tony is handling this – like breaking the resistance or not a real breakthrough yet when it regained strength just afterwards.

    I’m not sure who to blame for this downturn – Donald or his opponents, esp in media.
    Cause we don’t really know what happened in the meeting with Mr Lavrov. Perhaps it was just a minor information case.
    But of course a big problem if Donald just talk and talk, like a reality show host.
    Something like that. I’m not english.

  4. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

  5. blackjak100 says:

    The all important gap at 2361 is now filled. Let’s see what happens from here as TC has defined this as critical point as well.

  6. dan pulford says:

    UPRP thinking we go up from here, PPT should kick in

  7. johnnymagicmoney says:

    never cry wolf

    some day the wolf comes

    its that simple folks

    • vivelaamo says:

      What’s that supposed to mean?

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        meaning ……..

        if a dog has a bone and you take it from him he will inevitably find a way to get his bone back in a way that defies your expectations. In the end the dog is going to do what a dog is going to do and a dog has no bones about doing just that.


    • fionamargaret says:

      .. saying something dreadful is going to happen and never changing your tune….then when something dreadful does happen, no-one believes you….

  8. vivelaamo says:

    Looks like gap going to be filled today or tomorrow. I said it last week. No way was such a large weekly gap not going to get filled quickly. Could be good opportunity to go long next few days. All the best.

  9. micky says:

    lets see if 2357 can hold for today

  10. Page says:

    Tomorrow morning flush, the selling will stop by noon then bargain hunters will jump in the afternoon, Friday markets will be up good.

  11. H D says:

    What a hit! Support is an illusion. I’m just glad the VIX was 10 yesterday. Huge warning to everyone they were going to sell it off 40 points today.

  12. mcgcapital says:

    Closed a third of my FTSE short from 7527 at 7446. Stop on the rest trailed down to 7510. Think this has quite a bit of momentum behind it though and could be the start of a much bigger down leg. Looking at 7310, 7250 and 7130 below 7410.

  13. micky says:

    Apple went 2 bucks higher than the 154 my tool had resistance on the weekly, not bad, even if I have to say so myself.

  14. phil1247 says:

    es 2362 target hit
    now bounce or go thru?

  15. Gold is up okay,silver not as impressive and GDX is imho,lagging–especially with TLT up 1.5%.Transports can potentially move to 8200.All these other indexes(that had -dIvs on weekly charts)have the potential for minimum 10% down over time.
    QQQ lost the embedded, $Compaq did as well.TLT broke out of a bull flag couple days ago.NOW things are acting somewhat more normally.For how long,is the question.

  16. gary61b says:

    ES another tap of 2366 and 2360 should be next hiccup.

  17. H D says:

    Potential 1 tick failure. decent odds

  18. vivelaamo says:

    I’ve added to Dax short. I think we will see 12463.

  19. blackjak100 says:

    Going for LL and +div on 60 min RSI(5)

  20. stcoleridge says:

    How ironic. Brexit ridden FTSE is by far the best performing major European index since the Macron- Le Pen run off.

  21. mjtplayer says:

    Cash VIX now trading slightly above the June contract – nobody believes the selloff, still high complacency.

    Typically, cash VIX will trade much higher than the front month when fear is high, 300bps+, near the end of a correction, but not at the beginning with a VIX in 13’s

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