SHORT TERM: new high open then pullback, DOW -2
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 housing starts were reported lower: 1172k v 1203k, and building permits were reported lower: 1229k v 1260k. Then at 9:15 industrial production was reported higher: 1.0% v 0.4%, and capacity utilization was reported higher: 76.7% v 76.1%. The market opened at SPX 2406, four points above yesterday’s close, and at a new all-time high. Then it immediately started to pullback. At 10:30 the SPX hit 2396, bounced to 2403 by 12:30, hit 2398 by 2:30, then closed at 2401.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.35%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold rose $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2385 and 2336 pivots, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Today the Q2 GDP estimated was raised to 4.1% v 3.6%.
The market opened at SPX 2406 today then immediately pulled back to 2396 in the first hour of trading. After that it went into a trading range for the rest of the day. Thus far the pullback is not quite significant enough to confirm a down wave on either of the two short term timeframes we track. A drop down to the low-2390’s would do it. We continue to maintain a five small wave count up from the SPX 2329 downtrend low. Should this pullback drop to SPX 2382 or lower, then the 2406 would be labeled either all of Minor 5 or Minute i of Minor 5. The OEW 2411 pivot is certainly offering some stiff resistance. SPX 2401 in early March, then after a downtrend, SPX 2404 and SPX 2406 recently. SPX 2361 still remains the uptrend/downtrend critical level. Clearing the 2411 pivot range would offer more upside to the uptrend. Tax reform hearings start Thursday, and Friday is options expiration. Short term support remains at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2361, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Short term momentum displayed a negative divergence at the open and momentum has dropped to below neutral. The Swarm is next. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend