Monday update

SHORT TERM: higher open marginal new high, DOW +85

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the NY FED was reported lower: -1.0% v 5.2%. The market opened 5 points above Friday’s SPX 2391 close and continued to rally. At 10am the NAHB was reported higher: 70 v 68. Then just past 11am the SPX hit 2404. After a small pullback to SPX 2399 by 2:30 the market closed at 2402.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.40%. Bonds slipped 2 ticks, Crude rose $1.10, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2385 and 2336 pivots, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Tomorrow: housing starts and building permits at 8:30, then industrial production at 9:15.

The market opened higher today and hit a marginal new all-time high. We can now count five waves up from the SPX 2329 low in mid-April. When this five wave rally is combined with the NAZ/NDX count provided over the weekend, the B-wave Minor 4 scenario is eliminated. This SPX uptrend is Minor wave 5. While the five waves up could be all of Minor 5, it is unlikely. The NDX/NAZ still appear to have a pullback and then another rally ahead before they can complete their uptrend. This suggests the SPX five wave rally is either Minute i of Minor 5, or a i-ii, 1-2-3 underway. The next few days should provide the answer. Short term support is at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2361, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Short term momentum ended the below overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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81 Responses to Monday update

  1. purplember says:

    phil what you thinking about CL ?

  2. scottycj1 says:

    NEG D in 4 hr GC Chart

  3. bears have a chance her, see if they can do something into the close

  4. radrian6 says:

    The RUT is in a diamond pattern … it’s best viewed on a 60-min log-scale chart. If the equity markets were counting on the RUT for leadership, they will have to look elsewhere until the RUT breaks out of confinement. Diamonds can be topping, bottoming, or continuation patterns so it’s tough to predict an outcome here. There are a series of lows from 1379-81 and if RUT breaks that support, I would expect at least a test of 1360. The recent highs are 1399-1401 and if that resistance is broken, I would expect a test of 1410 and, if successful, continuation to 1423-25.

  5. GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate)in the second quarter of 2017 is 4.1 percent on May 16, up from 3.6 percent on May 12. The forecast of second-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 6.0 percent to 8.3 percent after this morning’s housing starts release from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of second-quarter real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth increased from 3.3 percent to 3.6 percent after this morning’s industrial production (IP) report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
    A head scratcher,with housing numbers disappointing.Housing starts down 2.6%

  6. pooch77 says:

    So what is trade here Iwm with stoch at 22 buy or qqq’s stoch at 99 sell

    • phil1247 says:

      . buy qqq until /nq ext long fails

      posted a while ago target was 5700
      next target 5727 ..

      stoch are embedded
      ..hope it stays above 80 for a few more weeks
      lets get to 6000 !

  7. Bud Fox says:

    Hello….I found a stock, that I now own. I want to share,
    with you what I have found – thinking long term. VRA is in
    the medical group, ie. Uniforms, I believe. I bought it, just
    above 9, and saw. From a historical view that 20 is a good
    target for the next 12-18 months. But, I believe that VRA
    may return closer to the old highs of 50 ish….Yes, talking
    long term. Again – VRA is not for the impatient, investor.

    • blackjak100 says:

      Bud, this stock has a full bore bearish look with no signs of bottoming. the 21,34, and 55 weekly moving averages are all pointing down with the 21 wma on the bottom. I see no signs of it even trying to attempt to build a base which it will do if it’s going to turn around. Not a wise investment IMO!

    • 123 abc says:

      Speculative analysis: Hopefully VRA finds support at around $7.84 and rise above $9.49 may bode well to commence an uptrend; good luck Bud !

  8. mcgcapital says:

    Going to play 7535 as shortable resistance on the FTSE. Daily RSI is now overbought and it’s bizarre that it’s gone up so much while the US has done nothing for weeks and sterling has been flat. The FTSE has a habit of making marginal new all time highs then selling off (6975, 7065, 7130 in March/April 2015 and 7365, 7445, 7535? in Jan/Mar/May 2017), so I’d be surpirsed if it went much further without a correction of a few hundred points at least as that tends to be the pattern. However, obviously I’m going counter trend here and looking for a turn so if we break above 7535 I will sit out again and look for another set up.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Good luck. I’m still under water on my Dax short. Still don’t think this strength in Europe is sustainable.


      Not bizzarre. The recent correction was a mirrored move but smaller in price and size than the previous correction. When 7322 held as a low intraday last week it was set up to rally. I wouldn’t be short personally.

  9. scottycj1 says:

    Golds rally has been on ever decreasing volume—negative

  10. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ D/W/M R @ 241 > Next 244
    Continued Failure then better buying opportunity lower. 😉
    GL All

  11. elmer510 says:

    I’ve used charts at Marketwatch which were well organized and easy to read, but now they’ve changed the whole thing and it’s much worse.
    I guess it’s a kind of progress – to change things that works well..

  12. phil1247 says:

    sell first.. ask questions later

  13. Transports about 50 points from another downleg,as a break of 8975 goes through the bottom of a bear flag.PO 8500ish.

  14. phil1247 says:

    /ZB TLT
    took profits on bonds bot yesterday
    short was nicked at 152.03 but not sure if its enough to break it
    better to sell first ..ask questions later
    would rebuy some on pullback… looking like tide is turning for bonds
    cant be good for stocks ….but i dont do correlations

  15. H D says:

    Monday Range 2,393.94- 2,404.05
    Tuesday Range 2,396.05 – 2,405.77
    Hmmm, maybe on to something here.
    Whipsaw Wednesday on deck.

  16. scottycj1 says:

    Today is the last day of weakness in my Model. There is “Up Pressure” thru the 1st 3rd of June.
    Tomorrow is also the 225 birthday of the NYSE. This 2 1/2 month consolidation should lead to a strong move up —question is will we get a rotation into Dow SPX or all indexes and stocks rising ?

  17. phil1247 says:

    still bearish below 49.40
    waiting for ext long to fail before looking for short entry

  18. It never fails to amuse me to see the markets open up and move around in the first hour of trading–and in conditions like this–to see the S&P go up 4,5,6 points-then pull back so slowly,finally getting within .25 of going negative–before rallying again.Happens time and time again,as if the algos know that going red is off limits to the programming.
    Or when I wake up around 830am and see gold up 3 to 7 dollars–the next hour,it invariably seems to pull back until 930am 3 to 4 dollars.Why am I posting this?
    Just trying to jinx what always happens,by mentioning it.Lol.
    Meanwhile,lower lows on DXY,probably with a +div.Waiting for those -divs to kick in on equities…anytime now.Later.

  19. gary61b says:

    ES drop to 2388.75 in the next hour?

  20. H D says:

    Turn around Tuesday

  21. mjtplayer says:

    Big rally for the Euro, now testing and peeking above the upper TL of the channel (bear flag), which lies at 110.70. Nothing has changed, the Euro is toast longer-term, but a nice and unexpected rally. Today’s close will be interesting, as well as Friday’s weekly close.

  22. dan pulford says: – Gold prices were higher in North American trade on Tuesday, trying for its fifth-straight winning session as the U.S. dollar slid to the lowest level since November amid signs of slowing economic activity in the U.S. and following another controversy from President Donald Trump.
    Comex gold futures rose around $5.00, or about 0.4%, to $1,235.30 a troy ounce by 8:40AM ET (12:40GMT). Meanwhile, spot gold was at $1,235.40.
    The yellow metal notched a fourth-straight winning session on Monday after rising to its highest since May 4 at $1,237.40, following the release of underwhelming U.S. manufacturing data.
    Data on Tuesday showed that the number of housing starts and building permits issued in the U.S. unexpectedly declined in April.
    The U.S. Commerce Department said that housing starts decreased by 2.6% from the month before to hit 1.172 million units last month. Analysts had expected April’s reading to rise 3.7% from the prior month’s initial reading of 1.203 million units.
    Meanwhile, the number of building permits issued fell 2.5% to 1.229 million units last month from 1.260 million the month before.
    The disappointing data is the latest in a string of weaker than expected U.S. economic reports which saw investors temper expectations for more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
    Markets are pricing in around a 70% chance of a hike at the Fed’s June meeting, according to’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool, down from more than 80% in previous week.
    The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.
    A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases.
    The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, weakened for a fifth straight day, falling around 0.6% to 98.23 in New York morning trade.
    It slid to an overnight low of 98.17, a level not seen since November 10, amid reports that President Donald Trump disclosed highly classified information to Russia’s foreign minister about a planned Islamic State operation in a meeting last week.
    The news added to concerns that Trump will be unable to successfully push through his economic stimulus program in the face of mounting controversies.
    Also on the Comex, silver futures gained 15.9 cents, or about 1%, to $16.76 a troy ounce.
    Elsewhere in metals trading, platinum tacked on 1.2% to $939.70, while palladium added 0.8% to $803.58 an ounce.
    Industrial metals rallied on Monday after Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged $124 billion in fresh financing to support its “Belt and Road” infrastructure mega-program.

    Tony if this is to long of a post please correct me, not sure of your limits.

  23. dan pulford says:

    This I posted yesterday may explain the Gold rise. I am long UGLD as of seeing this article kept me in overnight…..”Latest Release May 15, 2017
    Actual 59.8B Forecast 68.3B Previous 53.1B
    Treasury International Capital (TIC) Net Long-Term Transactions …”

    • dan pulford says:

      dan pulford says:
      May 15, 2017 at 3:52 pm
      Latest Release May 15, 2017
      Actual 59.8B Forecast 68.3B Previous 53.1B
      Treasury International Capital (TIC) Net Long-Term Transactions measures the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens and U.S. long-term securities purchased by foreign investors. Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation’s securities.
      A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD

  24. Nadeem Walayatt has a pretty humorous video out detailing-what he believes will be a double top and drop to 18700 on the Dow,by August.That’s all folks(for tonight).

  25. mjtplayer says:

    Looking like we’ve just about completed wave minute 5 of minor 5 of int 3, could go a bit higher but longs are living dangerous up here – IMO. FYI – my count differs from Tony’s, in that this is a potential int 3 of major 3 of P5.

    Topping out?

    2 more 4,5’s (int & major) to complete the bull market?

    • fionamargaret says:

      Three different videos…the first one Barber’s Adagio you might recognize from Platoon, Saving Private Ryan…just a beautifully composed piece of music. The interesting thing I find is the similarity it has to the Bill Evan’s one in its simplicity….nothing extraneous at all.

      Now the middle one, I hope you enjoy and sing along….you had to be in Cardiff to hear Cwm Rhondda, sung just perfectly by Welsh voices at rugby games…spine-tingling x

  26. Thanks Tony. Kudos on your preferred count and I had a fair measure of conviction it would unfold as suggested by actually trading. My informed read (lol) suggests it is in nano iii of Minute i of wave 5 but, as noted by Tony, how far and long this continues to subdivide is the million dollar question. If iii, nano i and iii are close to being the same length as of close. Today it possibly hit a simple trading range extension and on the next impulse will likely deal with the ES ATH of 2403.50 on the June contract……around 2406 in cash terms as the spread today was $2. I think closing above 2400 was the big deal today along with the return of a number of measures of “risk on” but I must remind myself this is OPEX week, making anything possible. But there is always something to worry about and today it was Goldman urging caution on future earnings along with NY Fed manufacturing survey.

  27. stormchaser80llc says:

    I continue to hold my SPY June Calls bought on March 31st, and will have to sell these quickly (this week?) to avoid the time decay. I am also still long in my 401k.

    Today was the third day in a row both my signals were bearish. Breadth is weakening again. My proprietary technicals model turned negative for the 2nd straight day, and have two negative divergences.

    Volume remains muted, and my proprietary Volatility Model remains historically low. VIX remains in a MACD SELL signal. The trend higher in oil continues. HYG:IEF had uptrend highs on 5/10-11 (though it currently is off its uptrend highs).

    Bulls clearly have taken back control, for now. I do think the end is near. SPX made a cash All Time High today, but did not do so in the all-hours trading charts. Upside remains, though I think a reversal lower could occur either this week or early next week.

    Much more FREE analysis at my site ( However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

  28. I don’t know where ZH gets some of their charts,but if you’re a gold bull,this is a good one.Also…the CBOT said there was a record dump of gold futures last week…

    While this is the largest drop on record, there were three other weeks when this approximate selling level was achieved and here is what happened next… 3/6/07 (+9.6%), 3/6/12 (+3.25%), 5/24/16 (+14.6%).
    We’ll see what happens this time.

  29. bfquant says:

    TC. Excellent work. I don’t think we exceed 2420-ish. Seasonality, massive divergences in RSI, %above 100,150,200 day moving averages all falling, S&P 500 equal weight lag

  30. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #GOLD at

  31. dan pulford says:

    Thank again Tony.

  32. dan pulford says:

    Latest Release May 15, 2017
    Actual 59.8B Forecast 68.3B Previous 53.1B
    Treasury International Capital (TIC) Net Long-Term Transactions measures the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens and U.S. long-term securities purchased by foreign investors. Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation’s securities.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

  33. purplember says:

    tony, once minor 5 completes (and Intermediate 3), will Int IV be a flat or zig zag ?? i can’t remember or see on chart what Int II was.

    • tony caldaro says:

      simple ZZ probably

      • 123 abc says:

        Interesting juncture: American indices nearing completion of Intermediate-iii followed by a ~5% correction for Intermediate-iv wave; whilst European and Asian indices such as the Nikkei and FTSE are in various degrees of a third wave.

        • fionamargaret says:

          Really good call 123….I am short the NAS and still holding oil from 44 and GLD from 116…just by numbers though, I cannot do waves……x

  34. 123 abc says:

    Doubtfully holding on to the B-wave scenario until 2407 all-time is exceeded in the futures; appears likely it will do so…

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