Friday update

SHORT TERM: lower open in quiet trading, DOW -23

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 retail sales were reported higher: 0.4% v -0.2%, and the CPI was reported higher: 0.2% v -0.3%. The market opened 3 points below yesterday’s SPX 2394 close, then drifted down to 2387 by around 11am. At 10am consumer sentiment was reported higher: 97.7 v 97.0, and business inventories were reported higher: 0.2% v 0.2%. After hitting SPX 2392 by 11:30, the market dipped to 2388 by 3:30, then ended the week at 2391.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.15%. Bonds gained 20 ticks, Crude added 5 cents, Gold rose $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2385 and 2336 pivots, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 55.1% v 55.4%, and this week the Q2 GDP estimate was lowered: 3.6% v 4.2%.

The market opened a few points lower today, hit SPX 2387, bounced to 2392, then remained in that 5 point range for the rest of the day. The short term count remains unchanged, with four waves up from SPX 2329. The medium term parameters remained unchanged as well: support low-2380’s, breakout 2404+, breakdown 2361-. We may have resolved the cyclical/tech bifurcation issue. Details in the weekend update. Enjoy the weekend.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

9 Responses to Friday update

  1. Thanks Tony. Whiffs of risk off wafted through the market for the second day as seen in currencies, bonds, indices and sector performance. I’m in the camp of expecting a higher high or retesting a prior high and expect we will see one of the two next week which, as you know, is OPEX week. Seasonality for the $SPX stinks in June, providing a decent. (?) setup if we get something done next week. That said,Tom McClellan thinks eurodollar futures will drive the market higher next month. August is the worst month for the $SPX.

  2. bfquant says:

    Market participants are playing asset class and beta hot potatoe like I have never seen before. This, despite massive complacency as evidenced by a 10 vix.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Beautiful work 123….I am sure it was suggested you take Fine Arts…
      Of course I really like when you provide the dialogue too, because it means so much more to you than me as it is…I can just see the beauty and form. x

      • 123 abc says:

        Appreciative of your comments, thank you Fiona; just following Tony’s masterworks…

Comments are closed.