SHORT TERM: lower open in quiet trading, DOW -23
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 retail sales were reported higher: 0.4% v -0.2%, and the CPI was reported higher: 0.2% v -0.3%. The market opened 3 points below yesterday’s SPX 2394 close, then drifted down to 2387 by around 11am. At 10am consumer sentiment was reported higher: 97.7 v 97.0, and business inventories were reported higher: 0.2% v 0.2%. After hitting SPX 2392 by 11:30, the market dipped to 2388 by 3:30, then ended the week at 2391.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.15%. Bonds gained 20 ticks, Crude added 5 cents, Gold rose $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2385 and 2336 pivots, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 55.1% v 55.4%, and this week the Q2 GDP estimate was lowered: 3.6% v 4.2%.
The market opened a few points lower today, hit SPX 2387, bounced to 2392, then remained in that 5 point range for the rest of the day. The short term count remains unchanged, with four waves up from SPX 2329. The medium term parameters remained unchanged as well: support low-2380’s, breakout 2404+, breakdown 2361-. We may have resolved the cyclical/tech bifurcation issue. Details in the weekend update. Enjoy the weekend.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend